花旗Codex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 00:28:05时区推断·⟳ 抓取 00:43:15·⚡ 决策 07-30 00:44:56 +1m41s·89.9 天前
花旗维持欣兴买入并称ABF涨价周期仍支撑毛利上行
花旗纪要确认欣兴（3037.TW）2Q26毛利率24.8%、ABF销售环比增长22%、3Q收入和毛利率仍有环比改善指引，方向偏正面。
📄 原文花旗↗ 原文
Unimicron (3037.TW): Much GM upside to come on ABF upcycle; Buy
Unimicron held 2Q26 analyst meeting after the market. Investors focused more on its profitability outlook, capacity exp…
不做 欣兴（3037.TW）
不做：花旗只是维持买入和目标价，2Q毛利率超预期、ABF涨价和AI需求强劲已在前一日及更早报道中扩散；欣兴近期已高波动交易该主线，台股隔夜开盘追买缺少足够新增edge。
不做 景硕（3189.TW）
不做：虽同受ABF景气外溢影响，但本条没有景硕的新增订单、涨价或指引，纯主题联动不足以在台股开盘前下单。
不做 南电（8046.TW）
不做：ABF行业方向偏正面但本信号的公司级事实集中在欣兴，南电只是同行beta映射，缺少足够新鲜和可量化的短线增量。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 已报道ABF供需失衡、价格上涨和台湾基板厂盈利改善预期，说明本次ABF上行逻辑不是全新主题。
- 报道称欣兴预计AI相关收入今年超过60%，并将2026年资本开支提高至NT$34bn，AI/ABF成长主线已提前传播。
- 转述高盛称欣兴2Q26核心业务超彭博一致预期26%、毛利率高于一致预期3.1个百分点，关键业绩超预期已在花旗纪要前公开。市场反应:Investing.com历史价显示欣兴7月已多次大幅波动，7月21日和22日分别接近涨停，之后又连续回撤。
- 花旗在会后维持买入和NT$1,500目标价，强调ABF卖方市场、涨价和保底毛利协议；但评级与目标价未上调，新增预期差有限。市场反应:台股当时盘前不可成交，下一交易时段存在跳空消化风险。
关键理由
- 花旗纪要确认欣兴（3037.TW）2Q26毛利率24.8%、ABF销售环比增长22%、3Q收入和毛利率仍有环比改善指引，方向偏正面。
- 但ABF涨价、AI需求、2026年高资本开支和2Q业绩超预期已在7月28日前后被其他卖方和财经媒体报道，不是低扩散首发催化。
- 欣兴（3037.TW）近期股价已处于高波动和高预期状态，7月中旬多次大涨后又大幅回撤，隔夜追买容易变成财报后见光死。
主要风险
- 若台股开盘直接跳高，当前纪要的新增信息不足以支撑追价；若低开，也可能是市场对ABF周期已充分定价后的本地fade。
- 公司将2026年资本开支从NT$34bn上调至NT$54bn虽验证需求，但也会带来折旧和产能爬坡压力，花旗本身已因泰国厂折旧将3Q毛利率预测小幅下修至28.5%。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-28 · 影响 weakens
业绩和毛利率超预期在花旗纪要前已被公开报道，削弱隔夜做多的新增预期差。
检索:Unimicron 3037 Q2 2026 gross margin beat consensus Goldman July 28 2026 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-06-01 · 影响 weakens
AI收入超过60%、ABF紧缺和资本开支扩张已在6月传播，本条并非首次确认ABF上行周期。
检索:Unimicron AI revenue ABF capex 2026 NT$34 billion June 2026 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,455 字
Unimicron (3037.TW): Much GM upside to come on ABF upcycle; Buy
Unimicron held 2Q26 analyst meeting after the market. Investors focused more on its profitability outlook, capacity expansion plan and EMIB-T development. The company is doing its best to ramp more ABF capacity to meet demand. Profitability would be supported by 1) price hike, 2) enhanced product, and 3) guaranteed minimum GM profiles for advanced products backed by agreements. Overall, we walked away from the meeting with the impression of robust ABF seller’s market. 2Q26 strong GM beat is evidence of robust ABF demand. We remain constructive on the ABF sector and reiterate our Buy rating with unchanged DCF-based TP NT$1,500 (implied 31x 2027E EPS).
2Q26 GM in line with our street-high GM forecast — Our street-high 2Q26 GM forecast of 25% received lots of skepticism from investors before the results and 2Q26 GM posted 24.8% (+6.8ppts QoQ) in line with Citi forecast. The company attributed GM expansion to price hike (majorly), improving UTR/yield and enhanced product mix. 2Q26 ABF sales grew 22% QoQ vs group sales QoQ growth of 15%. OPM also saw better leverage, resulting in 0.3ppts/2.7ppts higher than Citi/consensus forecasts. Overall, OP came in line with Citi forecasts but beat consensus by 21%. ABF/BT UTR was 90%+/80-95% in 2Q26.
Continued growth in 3Q26 and more ABF capacity built-up
The mgmt. guided 3Q26 sales to grow QoQ with GM improving continuously backed by rising ABF and HDI demand, streamlined capacity and price hike. Currently, the company is aggressively adding its new ABF capacity via either new built-up plan or capacity conversion from BT to ABF, given better profitability. The company also raised its 2026 capex from NT$34bn to NT$54bn mainly due to rising ABF demand. For T glass shortage, the company indicated qualification of new vendors is progressing well. To note that, we slightly cut our 3Q26 GM forecast from 29% to 28.5% (+3.7ppt QoQ), given likely depreciation recognized from its Thailand plant ramp for HDI. For its HDI strategies, the company would avoid competition against Chinese peers and focus more on capacity built outside of China. Overall, Unimicron would not pursue maximizing its HDI capacity. Meanwhile, the company also sees strong demand from optical transceivers with some demand calling for non-Chinese suppliers given geopolitical concerns. The company would ramp new mSAP capacity from 4Q26 to capture the demand.
Unimicron held 2Q26 analyst meeting after the market. Investors focused more on its profitability outlook, capacity expansion plan and EMIB-T development. The company is doing its best to ramp more ABF capacity to meet demand. Profitability would be supported by 1) price hike, 2) enhanced product, and 3) guaranteed minimum GM profiles for advanced products backed by agreements. Overall, we walked away from the meeting with the impression of robust ABF seller’s market. 2Q26 strong GM beat is evidence of robust ABF demand. We remain constructive on the ABF sector and reiterate our Buy rating with unchanged DCF-based TP NT$1,500 (implied 31x 2027E EPS).
2Q26 GM in line with our street-high GM forecast — Our street-high 2Q26 GM forecast of 25% received lots of skepticism from investors before the results and 2Q26 GM posted 24.8% (+6.8ppts QoQ) in line with Citi forecast. The company attributed GM expansion to price hike (majorly), improving UTR/yield and enhanced product mix. 2Q26 ABF sales grew 22% QoQ vs group sales QoQ growth of 15%. OPM also saw better leverage, resulting in 0.3ppts/2.7ppts higher than Citi/consensus forecasts. Overall, OP came in line with Citi forecasts but beat consensus by 21%. ABF/BT UTR was 90%+/80-95% in 2Q26.
Continued growth in 3Q26 and more ABF capacity built-up
The mgmt. guided 3Q26 sales to grow QoQ with GM improving continuously backed by rising ABF and HDI demand, streamlined capacity and price hike. Currently, the company is aggressively adding its new ABF capacity via either new built-up plan or capacity conversion from BT to ABF, given better profitability. The company also raised its 2026 capex from NT$34bn to NT$54bn mainly due to rising ABF demand. For T glass shortage, the company indicated qualification of new vendors is progressing well. To note that, we slightly cut our 3Q26 GM forecast from 29% to 28.5% (+3.7ppt QoQ), given likely depreciation recognized from its Thailand plant ramp for HDI. For its HDI strategies, the company would avoid competition against Chinese peers and focus more on capacity built outside of China. Overall, Unimicron would not pursue maximizing its HDI capacity. Meanwhile, the company also sees strong demand from optical transceivers with some demand calling for non-Chinese suppliers given geopolitical concerns. The company would ramp new mSAP capacity from 4Q26 to capture the demand.
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