Generac二季度业绩基本符合预期但数据中心订单与积压继续上修

GNRC reported 2Q results approximately aligned with expectations and maintained FY26 guidance, after adjusting for tariff refunds. The FY revenue outlook for the data center business was increased, while the outlook for the resi segment and core C&I business was trimmed. Encouragingly, the company signed a second hyperscaler deal in late-June and is currently negotiating final product-specific terms for 2027-28 volumes. Excluding this deal, data center backlog increased to $1.6bn, from $0.7bn last quarter, including the $0.7bn first hyperscaler deal announced during the quarter. The company booked $1.0bn in data center orders during the quarter, which also signals that colo orders remain strong at ~$0.3bn, approximately consistent with 1Q. The company targets data center product capacity of $1.25bn by the end of 3Q26 and the CEO sees a path to potentially triple this capacity within the next 12 months. We are increasing our estimates. We are establishing a YE27 price target of $261, from our YE26 price target of $267, despite increased estimates owing to lower trading multiples across peers. Maintain Overweight.
• 2Q results align, excluding tariff refunds. GNRC reported revenue aligned with consensus, with a 3% beat in the C&I business offset by a 3% miss in resi. Gross margin of 44.5% approximately aligned with consensus of 38.7% after deducting 6% benefit from tariff refunds. Similarly, PF EBITDA of $291mm approximately aligned with consensus of $217mm after deducting $71mm benefit from tariff refunds.
• FY26 revenue guidance maintained, EBITDA guide adjusted for 2Q tariff refund. GNRC continues to look for FY26 revenue growth of mid/high-teens (Street: ~17%). Within the segments, GNRC increased its outlook for C&I y/y growth to low-30s% (mid/high-20s% previously), and trimmed its resi y/y growth outlook to high-single digit (~10% previously). PF EBITDA margin guidance was increased to 20-21%, from 18.5-19.5% previously, reflecting 1.5% benefit from the 2Q tariff refund (unchanged excluding tariffs).
• Data center backlog expands, second hyperscaler deal being finalized. GNRC’s data center backlog increased to $1.6bn, from $0.7b at 1Q, including the $0.7bn deal with the company’s first hyperscaler announced during the quarter. The backlog increase included deals with new and existing customers. The second hyperscaler agreement, signed in late June for 2027/28 deliveries, was characterized as "at least as large" as the first, and is in final stages of negotiations on product specific terms. Notably, none of this second agreement is currently reflected in the $1.6bn backlog figure. FY26 data center revenue guidance was raised to ~$450mm, enabled by a sooner than expected start for expanded Sussex production (end of 3Q). Management did signal that coming off of this second hyperscaler agreement, they plan to focus on the robust non-hyperscaler co-locator pipeline, and would not expect a third hyperscaler agreement in the near-term.
• Capacity tripling already in motion. GNRC outlined a path to triple the $1.25bn of large megawatt assembly and packaging revenue capacity over the next 12 months. Key callouts include (1) the Sussex, WI facility is planning to commence production in 3Q26 (with a second line already committed, hence
Investment Thesis
We believe GNRC should benefit from multiple macro trends – increasing penetration of backup power owing to more frequent weather disruptions and a less stable grid, as well as increasing penetration of residential solar plus storage. The company has a synonymous brand name in its core home standby business, and we believe its leading distribution network could prove to be a differentiator in the nascent solar+storage, grid services, and other Energy Technology markets. We expect GNRC to outperform the rest of our coverage universe over the next 12 months.
Valuation
Maintain Overweight. We are establishing a YE27 PT of $261, from our YE26 PT of $267, based on an assigned EV/EBITDA multiple of 14x our FY28E EBITDA, which is aligned with the one-year average NTM multiple (13.7x) and a slight premium to the three-year average (12.3x). GNRC is trading at 11.6x our FY27E EBITDA, a discount to historical averages. We believe a premium is justified given our view that potential hyperscale agreements and backlog expansion could present catalysts and that GNRC is well positioned to benefit from increased grid outage activity given an aging US infrastructure and increasing mix of intermittent renewables, as well as power demand needs from data centers, electrification, and US manufacturing onshoring.