摩根大通Codex · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 03:53:06时区推断·⟳ 抓取 03:57:07·⚡ 决策 07-30 03:57:50 +43s·89.7 天前
摩根大通预览 Constellation 二季度业绩，EPS 预估高于市场但低于其此前模型
这只是摩根大通在财报前的模型预览，不是公司公告、订单、监管变化或新的经营事实。
📄 原文摩根大通↗ 原文
Constellation Energy: Thoughts into 2Q26: Seasonality on Display; All Eyes on Market Color
Thoughts into 2Q26: Seasonality on Display; All Eyes on Market Color Style Exposure After speaking with the company, we…
不做 Constellation Energy（CEG.US）
卖方财报前瞻不构成新的公司级硬催化；方向混合且临近正式财报，当前不做，等财报和电话会给出真实超预期信息后再评估。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-29 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium
关键理由
- 这只是摩根大通在财报前的模型预览，不是公司公告、订单、监管变化或新的经营事实。
- EPS 预估 2.42 美元虽高于市场中位 2.35 美元，但低于摩根大通此前 2.52 美元，且同时提到 Calpine 季节性偏弱和检修拖累。
- 真正可交易的信息需要等公司财报、管理层合同进展或回购/监管口径更新，当前研报本身无法形成明确短线同向 edge。
主要风险
- 7天后临近财报，正式披露和电话会才会决定市场重估方向。
原文全文
展开原文 · 977 字
Thoughts into 2Q26: Seasonality on Display; All Eyes on Market Color
Style Exposure
After speaking with the company, we model 2Q26 EPS of $2.42 versus the $2.35 Street Median and $2.52 prior JPMe. For the legacy CEG business, we see favorable capacity pricing YoY, partially offset by lower ZEC contributions and higher refueling outages (four in 2Q26 vs three in 2Q25). As a reminder, CEG points to $40mm O&M impact and 20 days downtime per refueling outage. For Calpine, we see seasonal softness (typically outperforms in 1Q and 3Q) given outage schedule and dispatch signals. On the call, we look for the latest comments around contracting, where we expect management to reiterate discussions with a wide range of counterparties, beyond just hyperscalers, as evidenced by the 176 MW long-term nuclear PPA with Walmart. We also look for the company’s latest views on regulatory developments, including PJM’s technical conference, power curves, and buybacks at current prices.
Style Exposure
After speaking with the company, we model 2Q26 EPS of $2.42 versus the $2.35 Street Median and $2.52 prior JPMe. For the legacy CEG business, we see favorable capacity pricing YoY, partially offset by lower ZEC contributions and higher refueling outages (four in 2Q26 vs three in 2Q25). As a reminder, CEG points to $40mm O&M impact and 20 days downtime per refueling outage. For Calpine, we see seasonal softness (typically outperforms in 1Q and 3Q) given outage schedule and dispatch signals. On the call, we look for the latest comments around contracting, where we expect management to reiterate discussions with a wide range of counterparties, beyond just hyperscalers, as evidenced by the 176 MW long-term nuclear PPA with Walmart. We also look for the company’s latest views on regulatory developments, including PJM’s technical conference, power curves, and buybacks at current prices.
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