摩根大通称Vistra二季度调整后EBITDA预计基本符合市场预期

After speaking with the company, we model a $1,658mm 2Q26 Adj EBITDA result, in line with the $1,650mm Street median and below the prior $1,992mm JPMe. East represents the most meaningful step up YoY, given capacity auction pricing ($110-120mm), Lotus contribution ($70mm), gas generation tailwinds ($25mm). Beaver Valley outage timing represents a partial offset (~$10mm). In Texas, favorable Waha pricing (~$50mm), hedging benefits (~$15mm), higher Martin Lake contributions (~$25mm) largely drive YoY growth, with Comanche Peak net flat YoY (outage on Unit 1 last year offset by outage on Unit 2 this year). We see Retail relatively flattish YoY. On costs, our conversation highlighted a low-single-digit percent increase to operating costs and SG&A (ex. Retail). On the call, we look for details on the Helix partnership, Beaver Valley colocation, contracting dynamics, PJM’s future & RBP, and broader regulatory developments.