花旗Codex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 23:38:09时区推断·⟳ 抓取 23:43:57·⚡ 决策 07-30 23:45:44 +1m47s·88.8 天前
台达电分析师会后花旗维持买入,AI收入向上但二季度利润率低于预期
本次是财报与分析师会后的卖方观点更新,AI收入占比、HVDC进展和资本开支方向均属于管理层既有AI基础设施叙事延续。
📄 原文花旗↗ 原文
Delta Electronics (2308.TW): AI revenue continues in the upward trend
Delta hosted analyst meeting today. Despite 2Q26 GM/OPM below market expectations, the company remains constructive on…
不做 台达电(2308.TW)
不做:这是排期内财报和分析师会后的卖方解读,AI长期逻辑已是明牌,二季度利润率低于预期又削弱追多边际;没有新增订单、指引上修或未定价的短周期催化。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-30 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 本次是财报与分析师会后的卖方观点更新,AI收入占比、HVDC进展和资本开支方向均属于管理层既有AI基础设施叙事延续。
- 二季度毛利率和营业利润率低于市场预期,但报告同时解释为一季度一次性因素正常化,未形成明确的新增公司级净利空。
- NT$700亿资本开支和AI相关设备折旧年限缩短偏长期投入,短线更像预期内扩产与费用节奏更新,不足以单独形成正期望交易。
主要风险
- 若后续公司正式下修利润率或AI订单兑现慢于预期,台达电盈利重估压力可能放大。
- 当前信号来自盘后卖方摘要而非新增订单或指引上修,次日若高开容易面临财报兑现后的追高风险。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,658 字
Delta Electronics (2308.TW): AI revenue continues in the upward trend
Delta hosted analyst meeting today. Despite 2Q26 GM/OPM below market expectations, the company remains constructive on AI infrastructure deployment. 2Q GM decline is mainly due to normalizing after one-off benefits in 1Q26; management believes ~35% GM is sustainable. Near-term risks are more related to component shortages, construction delays and product transitions rather than demand deterioration. Importantly, Delta continues to expand capacity globally, raises AI-related capex and invests more in RD, positioning itself to capture future AI power and infrastructure opportunities. Note that AI related revenue would contribute 25% for this year. We maintain Buy on the constructive outlook.
HVDC progresses gradually while Delta maintains technology leadership
Management reiterated that the transition toward HVDC remains on track but will be more gradual. Production of ±400V solutions will begin in 3Q26 and will be the mainstream architecture during the initial transition period. 800V adoption will ultimately depend on hyperscaler deployment decisions. Despite increasing competition from Chinese and international power suppliers, Delta believes its early customer engagement, engineering scale and ability to rapidly respond to evolving AI system architectures provide sustainable competitive advantages. Management also expects liquid-to-air cooling solutions to remain the dominant technology for longer than anticipated, with liquid-to-liquid cooling developing more gradually, supporting continued growth in both server power supplies and cooling solutions.
Aggressive capacity expansion reflects long-term constructive demand
Delta plans to invest NT$70 billion capex in 2026 and maintaining high level into next year across Thailand, Taiwan, China and the US. As the management stressed that capacity readiness takes 2-3 years, making current investment decisions is necessary to support expected demand well beyond existing customer orders.
Beyond AI servers, Delta sees rapidly expanding opportunities in energy infrastructure, microgrids, power distribution and system-level solutions that require significantly larger manufacturing footprints and different production capabilities. Note that Delta shortened depreciation period of all AI-related equipment from 5 years to 3 years beginning in April. Although these accounting changes may modestly pressure short-term earnings, management views them as prudent measures that strengthen long-term financial discipline while supporting continued investment in the next phase of AI and energy infrastructure growth.
Delta hosted analyst meeting today. Despite 2Q26 GM/OPM below market expectations, the company remains constructive on AI infrastructure deployment. 2Q GM decline is mainly due to normalizing after one-off benefits in 1Q26; management believes ~35% GM is sustainable. Near-term risks are more related to component shortages, construction delays and product transitions rather than demand deterioration. Importantly, Delta continues to expand capacity globally, raises AI-related capex and invests more in RD, positioning itself to capture future AI power and infrastructure opportunities. Note that AI related revenue would contribute 25% for this year. We maintain Buy on the constructive outlook.
HVDC progresses gradually while Delta maintains technology leadership
Management reiterated that the transition toward HVDC remains on track but will be more gradual. Production of ±400V solutions will begin in 3Q26 and will be the mainstream architecture during the initial transition period. 800V adoption will ultimately depend on hyperscaler deployment decisions. Despite increasing competition from Chinese and international power suppliers, Delta believes its early customer engagement, engineering scale and ability to rapidly respond to evolving AI system architectures provide sustainable competitive advantages. Management also expects liquid-to-air cooling solutions to remain the dominant technology for longer than anticipated, with liquid-to-liquid cooling developing more gradually, supporting continued growth in both server power supplies and cooling solutions.
Aggressive capacity expansion reflects long-term constructive demand
Delta plans to invest NT$70 billion capex in 2026 and maintaining high level into next year across Thailand, Taiwan, China and the US. As the management stressed that capacity readiness takes 2-3 years, making current investment decisions is necessary to support expected demand well beyond existing customer orders.
Beyond AI servers, Delta sees rapidly expanding opportunities in energy infrastructure, microgrids, power distribution and system-level solutions that require significantly larger manufacturing footprints and different production capabilities. Note that Delta shortened depreciation period of all AI-related equipment from 5 years to 3 years beginning in April. Although these accounting changes may modestly pressure short-term earnings, management views them as prudent measures that strengthen long-term financial discipline while supporting continued investment in the next phase of AI and energy infrastructure growth.
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