摩根大通称台达电子AI数据中心电源下半年动能恢复，但因费用压力下修盈利预测

Key takeaways from Delta’s 2Q26 analyst meeting included: (1) a better-than-seasonal 3Q26 revenue outlook, with some order backlog exiting 2Q26 amid tight component supply; (2) management expects stable GMs through 2H26, while we are more constructive on margin upside on a more favorable mix and product price increases; (3) reiterated server power product roll-out timeline, with initial HVDC products launching in 4Q26; (4) continued pressure in EV and automation businesses on soft end demand and component constraints; and (5) 30%+ opex growth this year amid ongoing R&D investment in system integration and elevated logistics fees. We remain constructive on the data center power outlook, while component supply remains the key overhang. Overall, we trim our 2026/27/28 earnings estimates by 4%/3%/3% to reflect higher-than-expected opex, and lower our Jun-27 PT to NT$2,500 (based on 33x 12M fwd EPS, higher than the historical valuation range due to the secular AI server power consumption growth). Delta has underperformed TAIEX by 27% over the past two months on market concerns around 2Q margin. We expect the stock to regain momentum over the next three months as data center-related revenues re-accelerate.
• Resumed datacenter power momentum into 2H26, supported by new VR and ASIC cycles. We model above-seasonal revenue growth in 3Q/4Q26 at +16%/+14% QoQ respectively, driven by order push-out from 2Q26, new AI ASIC project ramp in 2H (e.g. AWS T3 in 3Q, TPU v8i/v8t in 4Q), 110kW power shelf/HVDC product ramp in 4Q, and product price hikes in late 3Q26 (JPMe +10%). We also anticipate a gradual margin recovery helped by product price hikes and favorable pricing terms for new products. DC/DC revenue momentum could be sustained into 2H26 on continued TPU ramp, which bodes well for Delta’s margin profile (JPMe DC/DC GM at 50% vs. corporate average of 35%).
• Prolonged component supply shortage issue, long term uptrend intact. Management highlighted the continued concerns around component supply tightness (e.g. MOSFETs, memory), which could potentially impact the volumes of high-voltage power products. This is a temporary issue and we believe Delta remains a key beneficiary of the fast-growing datacenter power supply TAM (JPMe +80% CAGR in 2025-28), driven by continued content upgrades in rising power consumption of AI servers, non-PSU content increase from power rack adoption, and HVDC material upgrades.
• Aggressive capex guidance, prudent accounting approach. Delta guided to a NT$70bn Capex this year (NT$28bn in 1H26), up significantly from NT$46bn last year, with investment focused on new production plant build-out and equipment purchases to support the secular datacenter power and energy infrastructure demand. Delta plans to further expand capacity in Thailand/Taiwan/U.S. next year to support strong AI demand. Interestingly, Delta also shortened the useful life of equipment to 3 years vs. its previous 3-5year time frame. While we are likely to see a step-up in depreciation expenses, we see limited earnings impact due to the low depreciation % of total sales (4.1% in 2Q26).
Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation
Investment Thesis
We believe Delta will be a major beneficiary of the secular power and thermal demand in AI datacenters. Delta is well positioned in the market, in our view, and has a dominant share in key customers. We expect the stock to regain momentum over the next three months as data center-related revenues re-accelerate. More importantly, we see a favorable setup for Delta in the next two years – with power rack/BBU adoption, rising value per watt of dense PSUs, and initial HVDC adoption this year. Overall, we remain constructive on the data center power outlook, but component supply remains the key overhang. Stay OW.
Valuation
Our Jun-27 PT of NT$2500 is based on 33x 12M fwd EPS, higher than the historical valuation range due to the exponential growth of AI server power consumption and Delta’s leading position in the AI datacenter power and thermal space.