摩根大通上调日月光投控先进封装收入与毛利预期，但同一催化已被处理

ASE delivered strong 2Q26 results and revised up its FY26 revenue growth, capex and exit GM (in 4Q26) expectations, while also guiding LEAP revenues to double in 2027. At this point, demand for advanced packaging appears to be running well ahead of supply, which indicates further upside to LEAP revenues in 2027-28 as ASE brings on more capacity. As LEAP and testing mix improves, and mainstream capacity gets fully utilized with favorable pricing, we expect ATM GMs to move into the 30+% range in 2027-28. We expect capex to be further raised for FY27, which should be a positive signal for sustained demand growth into 2028. ASE is likely to remain the primary partner for TSMC and represent the largest wafer-level packaging capacity provider outside of TSMC, much bigger than Amkor or Intel. We stay OW on the stock, raising 2027/28 EPS estimates by 11%/12% to reflect better LEAP revenues and gross margins, and lift our Jun-27 PT from NT$650 to NT$700 (unchanged 20x PE).
• Stronger LEAP momentum in 2026, likely to at least double in 2027, driven by Full-Process CoWoS for CPUs: Management highlighted upside to its 2026 LEAP guidance of US$3.5bn and guided revenues to at least double in 2027 (implying $7+bn). We believe the primary growth driver for 2027 is Full-Process CoWoS, starting with AMD Venice later this year and ramping at a much larger scale in 2027. Given the extremely tight supply/demand, we think ASE's Full-Process capabilities could extend to other AI CPU programs (e.g., NVDA Vera) or even AI accelerators (e.g., AWS Trainium) depending on the execution for AMD projects—yield performance is progressing well—and additional capacity coming online. In addition, strong advanced testing demand (JPMe ~160%/80% YoY in 2026/27) will also provide further support, with outsourced chip probing momentum remaining solid and potential breakthroughs in final test business. We raise our LEAP expectations to ~$4bn/$8bn/$12bn in 2026/27/28, with Full-Process to contribute mid-to-high 20s in the 2027/28 timeframe (up from low teens in 2026).
• Mainstream demand stronger, helped by better utilization and favorable pricing: Management noted that assembly has caught up with testing momentum, partially aided by mainstream packaging (including wire bonding) despite lackluster consumer demand dragged by memory price hikes. We attribute the strength to: 1) robust AI‑peripheral demand (power management, connectivity, storage); and 2) improved pricing power from high UTR on AI‑driven capacity squeeze. Management revised up mainstream growth guidance to 20%+ (vs. prior 13% YoY) and stated continued capacity expansion. While the mainstream expansion is only a small portion of total capex, we view this as a signal that the tight supply situation in mainstream should persist for the coming quarters. We expect ASE to raise prices by mid-high single digits in 2H26/2027.
• Structural GM range likely to be raised to 30+%, given rising LEAP and testing mix: Management guided GMs to reach 30+% levels in 4Q26 and sequential margin expansion through 2026–27, primarily driven by better mix, volume scale-up in LEAP, and improving efficiency from increased automation lines. We expect ASE to lift its structural GM range from the
Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation
Investment Thesis
We stay OW on ASE, due to the strong demand for advanced packaging, improving GM trajectory, and expanding capex. We are now seeing demand for LEAP running well ahead of supply, implying further upside to LEAP revenue in 2027/28 as ASE brings on more capacity. For margins, we expect ATM GMs to move into the 30+% range in 2027, as margin-accretive businesses like LEAP and testing take a larger share and mainstream capacity gets fully utilized with favorable pricing. Moreover, we expect ASE to further raise capex for 2027, serving as a positive signal for sustained demand growth for 2028. ASE is likely to remain the primary partner for TSMC and represent the largest wafer-level packaging capacity provider outside of TSMC, much bigger than Amkor or Intel.
Valuation
Our Jun-27 PT of NT$700 is based on ~20x 12M forward EPS, a premium to OSAT peers due to a more positive LEAP outlook and faster GM improvement.