摩根士丹利Codex · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 22:38:12时区推断·⟳ 抓取 22:45:13·⚡ 决策 07-31 22:51:18 +6m05s·87.7 天前
大摩称创意电子已确认拿下疑似特斯拉AI6下一代AI芯片设计案
当前报告称创意电子（3443.TW）管理层确认下一代美国车厂AI芯片设计案，且大摩判断指向Tesla AI6，直接改善此前市场担心三星分走份额的预期。
📄 原文摩根士丹利↗ 原文
Global Unichip Corp: Confirmed design win on next generation AI chip from US auto customer; OW
Confirmed design win on next generation Tesla AI6: Management stated that the design win on a next-generation US automo…
不做 创意电子（3443.TW）
利好方向成立，但stock_quote对3443.TW连续HTTP 504，未取得契约要求的可下单报价；同时7月31日已涨停，次日跳空/一字风险高，当前不生成ENTER，等行情恢复或新信号再判。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 此前市场已知道Tesla AI6与三星2nm代工和增产谈判相关，说明AI6主题不是全新，但未确认创意电子的AI6设计份额。
- 创意电子披露2026年上半年营收253.44亿新台币、同比增长93.1%，确认ASIC业务高增长基线。
- 公司财务日历显示7月31日14:00举行Q2投资者会议，本条大摩摘要应来自该会后管理层沟通。
- 2026-07-31市场反应price_snapshot非一手3443.TW当日收3805元、涨9.97%，但该价格反应在晚间大摩摘要进入系统前已经发生，更多体现财报/板块和预期修复。市场反应:3443.TW 7月31日+9.97%，近20日-24.5%。
- 大摩摘要称管理层确认下一代美国汽车客户AI芯片设计赢单，并判断为Tesla AI6，属于本次新增核心催化。市场反应:台股已收盘，连续交易不可成交。
关键理由
- 当前报告称创意电子（3443.TW）管理层确认下一代美国车厂AI芯片设计案，且大摩判断指向Tesla AI6，直接改善此前市场担心三星分走份额的预期。
- 创意电子官网显示2026年上半年营收253.44亿新台币、同比增长93.1%，报告所称云端收入约八成与2H26台积电产能支持，说明ASIC量产动能仍强。
- 量级上，创意电子2025年营收341.41亿新台币、当前按3805元收盘和1.340亿股估算市值约5099亿新台币，但AI6设计服务金额和量产时间表未披露，短线增量仍无法精确折算。
主要风险
- stock_quote对3443.TW连续HTTP 504，未取得契约要求的可下单实时报价，不能生成可回测ENTER单。
- 3443.TW在7月31日台股已收涨9.97%至3805元，且AI5/AI6与三星竞争叙事此前已有传播，8月3日跳空或一字后买不到、买贵的风险较高。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-05-29 · 影响 weakens
大摩此前因三星/Intel可能参与下一代Tesla AI6、创意份额预期落空而降评，说明本次虽偏正面，但市场此前已有围绕AI6份额的高关注和高波动。
检索:創意 AI6 摩根士丹利 Tesla 三星 競爭 降評 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 none
内部KB检索两次HTTP 504，未能补充付费库中是否已有同一确认消息或反方纪要。
检索:GUC Global Unichip Tesla AI6 confirmed design win Morgan Stanley management next generation US automotive customer - 做多前查反向 · 来源 supply_chain_lookup · 日期 2026-06-14 · 影响 none
FactSet供应链表仅返回上海岱美汽车等传统车零部件候选，未给出可坐实的亚洲AI芯片设计供应商映射，无法据此扩展A股供应链腿。
检索:TSLA.US asia Supplier supply_chain_lookup
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(8 种)
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- query_modeling_kb · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- price_snapshot · 结果未知
- supply_chain_lookup · 结果未知
- normalize_ticker · 结果未知
- search_case_library · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,373 字
Confirmed design win on next generation Tesla AI6: Management stated that the design win on a next-generation US automotive customer's AI chip is confirmed. We believe it refers to Tesla AI6. Without a detailed timeline, management believes the AI6 tape-out schedule and PPA (power, performance, area) would both beat foundry competitors (Samsung), which we view as a good sign for GUC's AI6 share.
2H26 could show better shipments than 1H26: Management indicated more TSMC capacity support in 2H26, suggesting stronger shipment/revenue momentum H/H. Cloud-related revenue accounts for ~80% of total revenue, while crypto would ramp down, partially backfilled by automotive demand from China.
Who could be the largest customer to adopt CoWoS in 2027? Although management didn’t share details on 2027 CoWoS customers, we believe it could relate to a Meta ASIC project and another European AI start-up.
Key Takeaways
Next-generation Google CPU remains on track to tape out by late 2026 or early 2027.
GUC has no problem with other packaging technology and will fully support customers if needed (we believe management is referring to Intel EMIB-T).
Management is optimistic about 2027 wafer support from TSMC, and allocation should be finalized in the next two months.
We stay OW on the stock given more CSP design wins and well-diversified revenue portfolio in coming years.
2H26 could show better shipments than 1H26: Management indicated more TSMC capacity support in 2H26, suggesting stronger shipment/revenue momentum H/H. Cloud-related revenue accounts for ~80% of total revenue, while crypto would ramp down, partially backfilled by automotive demand from China.
Who could be the largest customer to adopt CoWoS in 2027? Although management didn’t share details on 2027 CoWoS customers, we believe it could relate to a Meta ASIC project and another European AI start-up.
Key Takeaways
Next-generation Google CPU remains on track to tape out by late 2026 or early 2027.
GUC has no problem with other packaging technology and will fully support customers if needed (we believe management is referring to Intel EMIB-T).
Management is optimistic about 2027 wafer support from TSMC, and allocation should be finalized in the next two months.
We stay OW on the stock given more CSP design wins and well-diversified revenue portfolio in coming years.
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