瑞银Codex · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 08-03 17:43:21时区推断·⟳ 抓取 08-03 18:51:07·⚡ 决策 08-04 14:10:26 +19h19m·84.1 天前
瑞银复盘东京电子一季度业绩并上调目标价，但核心财报与指引已在7月30日披露
东京电子一季度营业利润2114亿日元略高于一致预期、上半财年营业利润指引上调至4580亿日元，事件方向偏正面。
📄 原文瑞银↗ 原文
Key Call: Tokyo Electron: Progress steady, faster growth toward H2 anticipated
They were likely in line. Sales in Q1 (Apr-Jun) were ¥732.3bn and although this was below the consensus of ¥755.6bn, OP…
不做 东京电子（8035.JP）
同一财报和上半财年指引上修已于2026-07-30官方披露且本系统当日已处理；当前瑞银报告只是二级解读和目标价上调，股价已有反应，追多无新edge。
不做 北方华创（002371.SZ）
本次事件只提供全球WFE景气背景，未直接改变北方华创的订单、份额、收入或利润预期，A股映射不具备可回测的公司级催化。
不做 中微公司（688012.SH）
东京电子财报中的刻蚀份额和WFE展望不能直接外推为中微公司短周期业绩增量，缺少一手敞口与新订单证据。
不做 拓荆科技（688072.SH）
半导体设备景气联想成立但过于主题化，本次瑞银报告不是拓荆科技的新增公司级催化，不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 东京电子在东证收盘后发布FY2027一季度业绩材料，核心收入、营业利润和指引信息的首发应锚在这一官方披露日。市场反应:8035.JP随后7月31日上涨6.24%，说明市场已有消化窗口。
- 瑞银复盘财报并将目标价由90900日元上调至93600日元，但没有披露新的公司级订单、客户或再次上修指引。市场反应:该节点发生在日本收盘后，属于二级研报传播。
- 2026-08-04 15:05 JST市场反应stock_quote/tradingview非一手行情显示8035.JP盘中报56180日元，较前收上涨2.16%，当前已不是低扩散首发窗口。市场反应:8035.JP当日+2.16%，近20日-24.88%。
关键理由
- 东京电子一季度营业利润2114亿日元略高于一致预期、上半财年营业利润指引上调至4580亿日元，事件方向偏正面。
- 但收入7323亿日元低于一致预期，且本次瑞银报告主要是对7月30日官方财报和WFE展望的二次解读，不是新的订单、客户或指引上修。
- 量级上，瑞银上调FY3/28营业利润预测至1.37万亿日元、目标价至93600日元属于估值重估意见；对东京电子当前收入/利润基线没有新增可确认现金流。
主要风险
- 东京电子近20日仍下跌约24.9%、波动率高，8月4日盘中已上涨2.16%，在二次研报节点追多的剩余edge不足。
- A股半导体设备映射只来自WFE景气口径，缺少本次事件对北方华创、中微公司、拓荆科技等公司的直接订单、份额或盈利增量。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 none
内部KB未命中足以推翻正面方向的新增公司级利空；但也未发现8月3日之后新的硬催化。
检索:Tokyo Electron recent risks China export controls semiconductor equipment margins guidance 2026 - 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-08-03 · 影响 weakens
KB未命中比本信号更早的瑞银同文，但案例库显示同一财报催化已在7月30日被处理。
检索:Tokyo Electron Q1 FY3/27 results guidance WFE 2027 UBS price target 93600
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原文全文
展开原文 · 2,291 字
They were likely in line. Sales in Q1 (Apr-Jun) were ¥732.3bn and although this was below the consensus of ¥755.6bn, OP was ¥211.4bn and slightly above the consensus of ¥207.6bn. The gross profit margin was 46.8%, in line with the previous quarter and above the consensus of 44.6%. New semiconductor equipment demand was roughly flat at -2% qoq. By application, logic was -3%, DRAM -9%, and NAND +32%, with demand for NAND expanding.
Q: Has the company outlook/guidance changed?
The company's H1 OP forecast was revised upward from ¥431bn to ¥458bn. Assuming this, OP in Q2 would be ¥246.6bn, above the consensus of ¥233.2bn. The company's WFE market size outlook for CY26 is unchanged at over $150bn, and it has raised the CY27 outlook from $170bn to $190bn. Factors behind this include expanding demand for GPUs and HBM, as well as general-purpose memory and CPUs, and accelerated investment in advanced devices. Based on this, we are raising our OP forecasts from ¥0.98trn to ¥1.01trn for FY3/27 and from ¥1.33trn to ¥1.37trn for FY3/28.
Q: What were the most noteworthy aspects of the results?
We consider a key point to be President Kawai’s comment that progress is steady versus the gross profit margin target of 50% (within two years) including price increases. The CY27 WFE market size outlook is equivalent to +27% yoy, substantially exceeding the consensus FY3/28 sales growth rate of 22%, even assuming that market share is maintained. In addition, of the three products driving share gains, coater/developer (over 50%) and etcher (over 25%), were unchanged, while advanced packages were raised from 60% to over 70%. This indicates accelerating investment in advanced logic driven by inference AI demand.
Valuation: Results impression somewhat positive
Assuming H2 is in line with the H1 company plan, OP in FY3/27 would be ¥916bn, below the consensus of ¥960bn, and the market thus appears to be factoring in margin improvement in H2 from share gains and price increases. The steady progress in this acceleration of growth will likely be a significant source of reassurance. Applying an unchanged EV/EBITDA 28X to our FY3/28 earnings forecast, we are raising our price target from ¥90,900 to ¥93,600. EV/EBITDA of 28X corresponds to sales growth of +31.0% yoy in the same period.
Q: Has the company outlook/guidance changed?
The company's H1 OP forecast was revised upward from ¥431bn to ¥458bn. Assuming this, OP in Q2 would be ¥246.6bn, above the consensus of ¥233.2bn. The company's WFE market size outlook for CY26 is unchanged at over $150bn, and it has raised the CY27 outlook from $170bn to $190bn. Factors behind this include expanding demand for GPUs and HBM, as well as general-purpose memory and CPUs, and accelerated investment in advanced devices. Based on this, we are raising our OP forecasts from ¥0.98trn to ¥1.01trn for FY3/27 and from ¥1.33trn to ¥1.37trn for FY3/28.
Q: What were the most noteworthy aspects of the results?
We consider a key point to be President Kawai’s comment that progress is steady versus the gross profit margin target of 50% (within two years) including price increases. The CY27 WFE market size outlook is equivalent to +27% yoy, substantially exceeding the consensus FY3/28 sales growth rate of 22%, even assuming that market share is maintained. In addition, of the three products driving share gains, coater/developer (over 50%) and etcher (over 25%), were unchanged, while advanced packages were raised from 60% to over 70%. This indicates accelerating investment in advanced logic driven by inference AI demand.
Valuation: Results impression somewhat positive
Assuming H2 is in line with the H1 company plan, OP in FY3/27 would be ¥916bn, below the consensus of ¥960bn, and the market thus appears to be factoring in margin improvement in H2 from share gains and price increases. The steady progress in this acceleration of growth will likely be a significant source of reassurance. Applying an unchanged EV/EBITDA 28X to our FY3/28 earnings forecast, we are raising our price target from ¥90,900 to ¥93,600. EV/EBITDA of 28X corresponds to sales growth of +31.0% yoy in the same period.
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