瑞银Codex · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 08-03 17:58:03时区推断·⟳ 抓取 08-03 18:13:04·⚡ 决策 08-04 14:15:02 +20h01m·84.0 天前
瑞银复盘日月光上调2026年资本开支与LEAP收入指引，但同一催化已在7月30日至31日处理
日月光将2026年资本开支从85亿美元上调至105亿美元，其中设备资本开支65亿美元、约70%投向先进封装和测试，方向上利好自身AI封测与部分设备链。
📄 原文瑞银↗ 原文
ASE Industrial: Upside across advanced packaging and mainstream
ASE delivered another solid set of earnings and raised guidance. Management raised 2026 capex again from US$8.5bn to US…
不做 日月光投控ADR（ASX.US）
同一业绩与capex上调催化已在7月30日至31日处理并交易过，8月3日瑞银复盘不构成新增入场事件。
不做 ASMPT（00522.HK）
先进封装设备受益逻辑成立，但当前仅为日月光旧催化的二阶映射，缺少ASE新增订单份额确认且港股已盘中上涨5.12%，不追。
不做 长川科技（300604.SZ）
仅能形成A股测试设备景气外溢，未坐实为ASE本次capex供应商，且盘中已上涨9.33%，当前无足够新鲜edge。
不做 华峰测控（688200.SH）
测试设备主题联动偏二阶，未披露客户订单或金额传导，盘中已上涨9.38%，不做追高。
不做 Advantest（6857.JP）
测试设备方向受益但公司体量大、缺少ASE订单级确认，且本条核心催化已旧，不形成独立正期望。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 系统此前已处理“日月光称Q4 ATM毛利率有望超30%、2027年LEAP收入翻倍”等同一业绩与指引催化。市场反应:ASX.US在7月30日单日上涨11.73%。
- 系统此前已处理“日月光因AI先进封装需求强劲将2026年资本开支再上调20亿美元”，与本条105亿美元capex核心事实相同。市场反应:ASX.US相关ENTER历史记录显示次日收益为+4.7%。
- 瑞银复盘日月光业绩和上调指引，新增性主要是卖方EPS预测上修而非公司首次披露。市场反应:8月4日港股设备映射ASMPT盘中+5.12%，A股测试设备长川科技、华峰测控盘中约+9%。
关键理由
- 日月光将2026年资本开支从85亿美元上调至105亿美元，其中设备资本开支65亿美元、约70%投向先进封装和测试，方向上利好自身AI封测与部分设备链。
- 内部案例库显示同一核心催化已在2026-07-30至2026-07-31多次处理，其中ASX.US已有ENTER记录，本条瑞银报告属于后续卖方复盘而非新事实。
- 二阶映射中ASMPT具备TCB/混合键合设备敞口，但当前港股已交易至+5.12%，A股测试设备候选也已盘中上涨约9%，且缺少ASE新增订单份额确认。
主要风险
- 若后续ASE正式披露设备采购订单、供应商名单或CPO业务实质进展，可能构成新催化，需要重新评估。
- 二阶设备链受益逻辑成立但本条不新鲜，且当前入场已暴露在日内追高和先进封装主题波动中。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 search_case_library · 日期 2026-07-30 · 影响 invalidates
同一日月光AI封测需求强劲、资本开支上调至105亿美元和LEAP指引提升已在7月30日至31日处理，当前不应重复出卡。
检索:search_processed_events(hours=72, tickers=ASX.US,00522.HK,300604.SZ,688200.SH) / search_case_library 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 none
该反向证据检索超时，未能形成有效反证；不影响本条因重复旧催化而不做。
检索:ASMPT 0522.HK 近期 利空 下调 指引 订单 延迟 先进封装 2026 - 做多前查反向 · 来源 query_modeling_kb · 影响 weakens
定量库支持ASMPT的TCB和混合键合设备敞口，但这是产业链正向映射证据，不足以覆盖当前催化已处理和盘中已拉升的问题。
检索:ASMPT advanced packaging equipment TCB hybrid bonding OSAT revenue exposure 2026 原文 ↗
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(5 种)
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- query_modeling_kb · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- search_case_library · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,801 字
ASE delivered another solid set of earnings and raised guidance. Management raised 2026 capex again from US$8.5bn to US$10.5bn, of which US$6.5bn for machinery and US$4.0bn for fab and infrastructure. Of the equipment capex, 70% will be spent on leading edge packaging and testing, while ASE is also increasing capex for mainstream given tightening supply. ASE's blended utilisation was nearly full across both leading edge & mainstream services at 80-85% in Q2.
Stronger IC ATM outlook across LEAP and mainstream
ASE guided IC ATM sales to grow 35% in 2026, above our pre-earnings estimate of 29%. Packaging is showing robust upside, which we believe is lifted by both LEAP and mainstream demand, and management is now guiding mainstream to grow in line with testing in 2026. 1) LEAP sales guidance is raised to over US$3.5bn in 2026, and to double in 2027 to >US$7bn vs prior guidance of US$5.4bn+. As we highlighted, TSMC and ASE's faster CoWoS expansion for larger Cloud AI demand should support upside to ASE's LEAP growth in 2027-28. We forecast ASE’s LEAP sales to grow to US$7.5bn in 2027, of which US$2.5bn is from full process CoWoS. 2) Mainstream packaging is also recovering toward tight utilisation in Q2-Q3. We believe ASE may raise blended ASP of wirebond and flip chip by at least 10% in H226.
Faster margin expansion in 2027-28
ASE raised guidance for IC ATM GM to exceed 30% in Q426 vs prior guidance of 29-30%. The stronger ramp of LEAP especially the higher margin full process CoWoS service remains a key driver. We estimate LEAP as a whole GM may reach close to 40% in 2027. Meanwhile, improving mainstream business with favorable pricing should further fuel the margin improvement. We forecast IC ATM gross margin to reach 33.8% in 2027E and 34.6% in 2028E from 28.4% in 2026E.
Valuation: maintain Buy and price target of NT$835
We revise up 2026/27E EPS by 8/6% to factor in the more robust outlook for LEAP, mainstream sales, and profitability. EMS sales guidance in Q3 is also stronger than expected at 40% QoQ growth, lifted by higher pass-through cost of memory. CPO could emerge as a new catalyst for ASE, and management committed to share the business development and opportunity by early 2027. We reiterate Buy and keep our price target of NT$835, based on lower multiple of 24x average 2027-28E PE from 25x previously, mainly considering the broader market deleveraging.
Equities
Taiwan
Semiconductors
12-month rating
Buy
12m price target
NT$835.00
Price (30 Jul 2026)
NT$505.00
RIC: 3711.TW BBG: 3711 TT
Forecast changes and key figures
Figure 1: ASE's leading-edge advanced packaging business
Figure 2: ASE's operating metrics
Figure 3: IC ATM GM structurally improving with growing LEAP contribution
Figure 4: Elevated capex to capture advanced packaging opportunity
Stronger IC ATM outlook across LEAP and mainstream
ASE guided IC ATM sales to grow 35% in 2026, above our pre-earnings estimate of 29%. Packaging is showing robust upside, which we believe is lifted by both LEAP and mainstream demand, and management is now guiding mainstream to grow in line with testing in 2026. 1) LEAP sales guidance is raised to over US$3.5bn in 2026, and to double in 2027 to >US$7bn vs prior guidance of US$5.4bn+. As we highlighted, TSMC and ASE's faster CoWoS expansion for larger Cloud AI demand should support upside to ASE's LEAP growth in 2027-28. We forecast ASE’s LEAP sales to grow to US$7.5bn in 2027, of which US$2.5bn is from full process CoWoS. 2) Mainstream packaging is also recovering toward tight utilisation in Q2-Q3. We believe ASE may raise blended ASP of wirebond and flip chip by at least 10% in H226.
Faster margin expansion in 2027-28
ASE raised guidance for IC ATM GM to exceed 30% in Q426 vs prior guidance of 29-30%. The stronger ramp of LEAP especially the higher margin full process CoWoS service remains a key driver. We estimate LEAP as a whole GM may reach close to 40% in 2027. Meanwhile, improving mainstream business with favorable pricing should further fuel the margin improvement. We forecast IC ATM gross margin to reach 33.8% in 2027E and 34.6% in 2028E from 28.4% in 2026E.
Valuation: maintain Buy and price target of NT$835
We revise up 2026/27E EPS by 8/6% to factor in the more robust outlook for LEAP, mainstream sales, and profitability. EMS sales guidance in Q3 is also stronger than expected at 40% QoQ growth, lifted by higher pass-through cost of memory. CPO could emerge as a new catalyst for ASE, and management committed to share the business development and opportunity by early 2027. We reiterate Buy and keep our price target of NT$835, based on lower multiple of 24x average 2027-28E PE from 25x previously, mainly considering the broader market deleveraging.
Equities
Taiwan
Semiconductors
12-month rating
Buy
12m price target
NT$835.00
Price (30 Jul 2026)
NT$505.00
RIC: 3711.TW BBG: 3711 TT
Forecast changes and key figures
Figure 1: ASE's leading-edge advanced packaging business
Figure 2: ASE's operating metrics
Figure 3: IC ATM GM structurally improving with growing LEAP contribution
Figure 4: Elevated capex to capture advanced packaging opportunity
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