瑞银上调联发科 Google TPU 收入预期，但核心 TPU 与 EMIB-T 叙事已提前扩散

Meaningful step-up in TPU guidance; conviction rising on share gains and execution
Stronger visibility for larger TPU TAM, higher share and execution
Management shared higher visibility of Google TPU sales opportunity, its share gains, and increased confidence about the execution of TPU v9 ramping in 2028. TPU v8t is on track to start ramping in Q4 with over US$2bn sales. MediaTek raised the 2027 sales target from US$7-12bn to US$12-16bn, which is now based on larger TAM of US$80bn and MediaTek’s higher share target of 15-20% vs 10-15% prior. We still see room for higher sales contribution in 2027, and forecast US$18bn. See Figure 1UBS forecasts for MediaTek's TPU busines for our TPU financial analysis. With a steady ramp of TPU and stable existing business, MediaTek guided 2026 sales to grow high single digit YoY, vs UBSe of 9% growth pre-earnings.
TPU v9 on track for MP in 2028 with improving yield of EMIB-T
As for TPU v9, management showed a lot more conviction than prior quarters and indicated the project is on track for mass production in 2028. The TAM should be much larger than US$80bn and MediaTek anticipates further and meaningful share expansion. We believe as of now, the tape out is on track for delivery in Q426. On the market concern regarding Intel's EMIB-T risk, MediaTek was also constructive about the supply situation and the yield improvement, especially at the substrate makers' end. This aligns with our recent sector deep dive on Intel's EMIB-T, that we believe Ibiden is making good progress and should have reached a reasonable 50% yield for trial production. Unimicron also showed a lot more commitment on EMIB-T earlier this week, which makes us more comfortable with substrate supply for v9 to reach >2mn units in 2028 and drive US$35bn TPU sales for MediaTek. MediaTek's board also approved a US$5bn financing budget to secure and invest in supply chain capacity when necessary—we view this as essential in further enhancing MediaTek's positioning in Cloud/Edge AI by leveraging its scale, especially with the increasing supply chain shortage.
Q3 sales better than feared; Q4 to strongly inflect
Q3 sales is guided to grow 0-5% QoQ, above recent buyside expectations of flat to 5% QoQ decline, in our view. The strength is supported by smart edge, new flagship 5G SoC, and price hike to pass through supply chain cost. We have flagged that MediaTek should raise pricing for most products by 5-10% from Sept. Based on full year sales guidance of high single digit growth, Q4 sales is implied to grow >30% QoQ, through >US$2bn sales from TPU v8 and flagship smartphone seasonality.
Valuation: maintain Key Call Buy and target of NT$6,500
We fine tune 2026/27E/28E EPS to NT$67.6/181.5/301.4. Our 2027/28E EPS are well above consensus by 39%/19%. MediaTek's higher conviction on TPU opportunity, especially the TPU v9 progress, should ease investor concerns on execution. Reiterate Key Call Buy and target of NT$6,500, based on 27x 2027-28E PE.