瑞银称创意电子二季度业绩超预期并上调2026年销售增速预估

Global Unichip: Stronger H226 momentum on better wafer allocation
GUC reported Q226 results yesterday and hosted an analyst meeting today. Q226 EPS of NT$11.61 exceeded our upwardly revised estimate and consensus expectations, driven by stronger sales and lower tax. Q226 sales reached another record high of NT$13.9bn, up 21% QoQ and 128% YoY, supported by growth in both turnkey and NRE businesses. Turnkey revenue increased 18% QoQ to NT$11.6bn, while NRE revenue grew 41% QoQ, reflecting healthy project activity and additional wafer capacity secured through GUC's relationship with TSMC. GM declined 5.7ppts QoQ to 21.5%, in line with UBSe/VA's ~22%, due to less favourable mix within both turnkey and NRE segments. Within turnkey, revenue from 3nm node accounted for 59% of sales, vs 60% in Q126. Overall, revenue from cloud/AI accounted for 79% of total sales, down from 81% in Q126.
Growth momentum to sustain into H226
Management expects H226F to outperform H126, supported by additional wafer capacity and stronger momentum from automotive, HPC ASIC and CPU projects, which should more than offset winding down of crypto-related sales. The company maintained its guidance for sequential growth in H226F, although GM will remain dependent on tape-out timing and project mix. We forecast Q326E revenue to grow 15% QoQ with turnkey up ~20% QoQ, while NRE down 12% QoQ. GM is expected to decline 1.4ppt QoQ to 20.1% on less favourable mix. Nevertheless, we expect its Q426E sales to see stronger growth at +49% QoQ as the additional wafer is secured and the faster ramp of Chinese ADAS customer should see greater contribution in Q426. Overall, we estimate 2026E sales to grow 90% YoY, up from our prior estimate of +78%.
Expanding its customer portfolio to support medium-term growth
GUC is constructive on its medium-term growth as it has won cloud ASIC projects at three out of four major CSPs (Google CPU, Meta ASIC, Microsoft ASIC/CPU), while automotive business at US EV customer is scheduled to ramp from H227E and could proliferate into robotic applications. Management also noted it has secured next generation Axion CPU, which we believe will begin revenue contribution from H227. Management also noted it aims to engage with more customer projects, leveraging its relationship with TSMC and advanced packaging expertise. Notably, GUC could also support EMIB-T for advanced packaging, based on customers' requirement.
Valuation: Reiterate Buy with PT of NT$6,700
We raise our 2026-28E EPS by 3-10% and lift our price target to NT$6,700 (from NT$6,500) with the same 50x average 2027-28E EPS (vs historical 15-62x range), supported by 52% CAGR in earnings over 2025-30E. We reiterate that GUC should benefit from Google CPU upside and multiple automotive project ramps.