野村证券Codex · 实盘不做把握 7/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 08-03 20:18:09时区推断·⟳ 抓取 08-03 20:48:10·⚡ 决策 08-04 14:02:03 +17h13m·84.0 天前
野村首次覆盖中际旭创并给出买入评级和1595港元目标价，但缺少新增硬催化
野村报告给出中际旭创（03308.HK/300308.SZ）买入评级和1595港元目标价，本质是卖方首次覆盖与估值上修，不是新增订单、客户定点或产品量产公告。
📄 原文野村证券↗ 原文
Multiple growth engines ahead; leadership intact
Action: Initiate at Buy with TP of HKD1,595; implying 55% upside Despite a recent pull-back in the share price, we thin…
不做 中际旭创（03308.HK）
卖方首次覆盖不是新增订单或指引，上涨16.9%后剩余edge不足，当前不追。
不做 中际旭创（300308.SZ）
A股盘中已涨13.02%，核心逻辑属于已广泛交易的光模块景气确认，缺少新增硬催化。
不做 新易盛（300502.SZ）
报告未覆盖新易盛且没有新增订单或客户份额信息，仅板块联动已大涨，不做。
不做 天孚通信（300394.SZ）
报告未给天孚通信新增业绩或供货证据，盘中涨幅已高，二阶追涨风险收益不佳。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 野村首次覆盖中际旭创，给出买入评级和1595港元目标价，核心是FY26-28增长预测与估值观点。
- 2026-08-04 13:59 SZ/HK市场反应Futu非一手次日盘中中际旭创A股涨13.02%、H股涨16.9%，同业新易盛和天孚通信也大涨，显示交易层面已快速扩散。市场反应:03308.HK +16.9%，300308.SZ +13.02%，300502.SZ +12.94%，300394.SZ +16.95%
关键理由
- 野村报告给出中际旭创（03308.HK/300308.SZ）买入评级和1595港元目标价，本质是卖方首次覆盖与估值上修，不是新增订单、客户定点或产品量产公告。
- 内部定量库此前已覆盖1.6T、硅光、NPO/CPO、毛利率提升等主线，说明报告核心逻辑属于既有AI光模块共识再确认。
- 中际旭创H股当前约1176港元、较前收涨16.9%，A股约1019.99元、涨13.02%，报告后可交易窗口已出现大幅同向重定价，追高的风险收益不佳。
主要风险
- 若后续公司披露真实大客户订单、1.6T/2.4T/NPO量产份额或盈利指引上修，应作为新催化重新研判。
- 光模块板块当前波动极高，卖方目标价可能继续强化情绪，但缺少可量化新增基本面时不适合用市价追涨。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-06-29 · 影响 weakens
KB显示EML、InP、CW激光器等上游约束和新进入者验证仍是行业变量；报告自身也列出产品升级放缓、竞争加剧和地缘风险。
检索:中际旭创 近期 利空 竞争 新进入者 EML InP 供应 紧张 降价 客户 2026 8月 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 query_modeling_kb · 日期 2026-04-29 · 影响 weakens
定量库已在4月至6月记录1.6T、硅光渗透和高毛利率叙事，说明本报告多数观点不是首次进入市场的信息。
检索:中际旭创 1.6T 2.4T NPO CPO 光模块 份额 毛利率 营收 FY26 FY27 - 做多前查反向 · 来源 stock_quote · 日期 2026-08-04 · 影响 weakens
中际旭创A/H在报告后次日盘中分别上涨13.02%和16.9%，当前追买已不再是低扩散窗口。
检索:300308.SZ stock_quote full; 03308.HK stock_quote full
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原文全文
展开原文 · 2,397 字
Multiple growth engines ahead; leadership intact
Action: Initiate at Buy with TP of HKD1,595; implying 55% upside
Despite a recent pull-back in the share price, we think the strong fundamental growth drivers for InnoLight remain unchanged over FY26-28F: 1) 1.6T and Silicon photonics (SiPh) transceiver upgrades; 2) commercialization of 2.4T coherent-lite transceivers and NPO (near-field packaging optics) beginning 2027F; and 3) 3.2T transceiver, XPO (extra-dense pluggable optics), and CPO (co-packaged optics) market expansion in the long term. We forecast FY26-27F global shipments for 800G/1.6T transceivers at 40.8-57.8mn/25.1-68.8mn, and we also estimate FY27-28F 2.4T transceivers shipments at 3-8mn units and NPO at 8mn/25mn units.
Therefore, we forecast 77% / 78% revenue / earnings CAGRs in FY26-28F. We initiate coverage at Buy with a TP of HKD1,595, based on 21x FY27F EPS of CNY65.47, in line with WIND’s China A share tech/electronic component sector median P/E. The stock is currently trading at 13.3x FY27F EPS. Key risks to our investment views include a slower product upgrade cycle, fiercer competition, and more intensive geopolitical tensions.
Margin expansion with ease of components shortage and product upgrades
We think supply bottlenecks for upstream material (i.e., InP wafer) and components (i.e., EML/CW lasers) may gradually ease in 2H26F, thanks to accelerated capacity expansion and the company’s effective supply chain management. Moreover, we believe there are multiple drivers of margin expansion, including the continued penetration of SiPh transceivers, the commercialization of 2.4T transceivers, and NPO products starting from 2027. The new product upgrade cycle should more than offset the increasing prices of upstream materials, in our view. We estimate the company’s GPM will grow from 46.9% in FY26F to 49.3% in FY28F.
Concerns about intensified competition overdone; multiple new technologies should help company maintain leadership
We think market concerns about new entrants into the market are overdone, as technology barriers will be higher in new technology roadmaps (i.e., for 2.4T/3.2T/NPO/CPO). We believe the company’s dedicated R&D and product development should help it to maintain market leadership, and we estimate the company to maintain a 30-35% market share in the global AIDC transceiver market in FY26-28F (40%+ for 1.6T and above).
Action: Initiate at Buy with TP of HKD1,595; implying 55% upside
Despite a recent pull-back in the share price, we think the strong fundamental growth drivers for InnoLight remain unchanged over FY26-28F: 1) 1.6T and Silicon photonics (SiPh) transceiver upgrades; 2) commercialization of 2.4T coherent-lite transceivers and NPO (near-field packaging optics) beginning 2027F; and 3) 3.2T transceiver, XPO (extra-dense pluggable optics), and CPO (co-packaged optics) market expansion in the long term. We forecast FY26-27F global shipments for 800G/1.6T transceivers at 40.8-57.8mn/25.1-68.8mn, and we also estimate FY27-28F 2.4T transceivers shipments at 3-8mn units and NPO at 8mn/25mn units.
Therefore, we forecast 77% / 78% revenue / earnings CAGRs in FY26-28F. We initiate coverage at Buy with a TP of HKD1,595, based on 21x FY27F EPS of CNY65.47, in line with WIND’s China A share tech/electronic component sector median P/E. The stock is currently trading at 13.3x FY27F EPS. Key risks to our investment views include a slower product upgrade cycle, fiercer competition, and more intensive geopolitical tensions.
Margin expansion with ease of components shortage and product upgrades
We think supply bottlenecks for upstream material (i.e., InP wafer) and components (i.e., EML/CW lasers) may gradually ease in 2H26F, thanks to accelerated capacity expansion and the company’s effective supply chain management. Moreover, we believe there are multiple drivers of margin expansion, including the continued penetration of SiPh transceivers, the commercialization of 2.4T transceivers, and NPO products starting from 2027. The new product upgrade cycle should more than offset the increasing prices of upstream materials, in our view. We estimate the company’s GPM will grow from 46.9% in FY26F to 49.3% in FY28F.
Concerns about intensified competition overdone; multiple new technologies should help company maintain leadership
We think market concerns about new entrants into the market are overdone, as technology barriers will be higher in new technology roadmaps (i.e., for 2.4T/3.2T/NPO/CPO). We believe the company’s dedicated R&D and product development should help it to maintain market leadership, and we estimate the company to maintain a 30-35% market share in the global AIDC transceiver market in FY26-28F (40%+ for 1.6T and above).
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