联发科法说后野村重申ASIC收入上修，但核心信息已于7月31日披露并被股价反应

Likely driven by a sharply falling share price in July – following the record level from April to June (see our “after 2000 days… ” report from March) – most questions we have received from investors over the past month since our late-June preview note were triggered by Street noise such as the delays of TPU v8 or v9 projects, rising ASIC competition, and likely negative sales growth for 3Q26F.
MTK’s guidance (Fig. 1 ) and messages – projecting 3Q sales to grow 0-5% q-q and, more importantly, ASIC sales surging to USD12-16bn in 2027E (accounting for a 15-20% share of the USD80bn market, aligning with our USD14bn sales estimate, vs previous guidance of USD7-12bn based on a 10-15% share of a USD70-80bn cloud ASIC TAM ) from USD2bn+ in 2026 – should have effectively addressed these concerns, in our view.
Also, MTK confirmed that its second AI ASIC (TPU v9, we assume) is progressing well using EMIB-T, with further share gains and high volume production in 2028E. MTK is also engaging with several other ASIC customers. Last but not the least, MTK has confirmed price hikes to pass on the increased supply chain costs. Accordingly, MTK expects full-year GPM to be stable in the 46%+ to -1.5% range. These developments are broadly consistent with our strengthened positive view on the company, with one modest upside – the “implied” 4Q26E GPM guidance (at least 45-46%) appears slightly above our model forecast of 44.7% (likely reflecting price increases offsetting the lower GPM from ASIC).
Given the in-line 3Q guidance and 2Q results (Fig. 1 ), we maintain our 2026-28F EPS forecasts and reiterate our Buy rating and TP of TWD5,800. Our TP is based on 25x 2027-28 average EPS; the stock currently trades at 15x.
MediaTek: 2Q26 analysts briefing summary
Below comments are from MediaTek’s management, unless otherwise stated :
Results summary
• 2Q26 revenue was TWD152.2bn (+2.0% q-q and +1.2% y-y)
• 2Q26 GM was 46.2% (-0.1pp q-q and +2.9pp y-y)
• 2Q26 OPM was 15.0% (-0.3pp q-q and -4.5pp y-y)
• EPS was TWD15.28
Prepared remarks
• 2Q26 revenue was at the high end of guidance, mainly driven by solid momentum across Smart Edge products; 2Q26 GM was around the midpoint of guidance.
Data center
The release of increasingly capable frontier AI models and the rapid transition toward agentic AI are driving computing demand across both cloud and edge AI. Agentic AI represents a significant growth opportunity for MediaTek as it is well positioned to support both the scaling of AI data centers and the proliferation of agentic AI across edge devices.
○ Through close partnership with major US CSP customers, MediaTek has built the first AI accelerator and production is scheduled to begin in 4Q26.
○ It expects data center revenue to exceed USD2bn in 2026E and will continue to scale substantially in 2027E, primarily driven by increasing customer demand.
○ Now MediaTek believes the 2027E TAM to be USD80bn and raised the share target to 15-20% (from 10-15%).
○ The second AI ASIC is progressing well. With close collaboration with the advanced packaging partner, the yield and reliability of the second ASIC are on track for high-volume production in 2028E, and MediaTek is confident of capturing additional share when this ASIC ramps up.
○ MediaTek continues to deepen its engagement with several customers for data center ASIC opportunities. Backed by IP and proven execution capabilities, MediaTek can secure more design wins in the data center market.
■ The development of 448G SerDes is progressing well, delivering best-in-class performance and power with CPC system.
■ Beyond 448G, MediaTek continues to develop CPO on TSMC COUPE.
■ Offers end-to-end 3.5D platform with best-in-class 3.5D IP packaging and design flows.
○ Through DTCO (Design-Technology Co-Optimization) with TSMC (2330 TT, Buy) and close collaborations with key advanced packaging partners, MediaTek leverages its experience in advanced nodes such as 2nm and strong engineering and architecture capabilities to develop high-performance ASICs using large-size CoWoS and EMIB-T.
○ Creates significant value beyond semiconductors by orchestrating other key components throughout the supply chain, such as memory and substrate, to drive successful execution.
○ Confident in the ability to support data center customers' roadmaps.
Mobile Phone (41% of total revenue)
-14% q-q and -20% y-y primarily due to weak demand as a result of increasing smartphone BOM.
○ Mediatek maintains its global smartphone estimates at -15% units decline this year.
○ Has observed that customers are prioritizing both flagship and entry-level products.
○ For the flagship segment, MediaTek will launch 2nm SoC in 3Q26E to power customers' next-generation agentic AI models with strong agentic AI computation and a more efficient cost structure.
○ Will increase its presence in the flagship smartphone market in 2027E.
○ In the entry segment, MediaTek continues to support customers with SoC portfolio and memory utilization technologies to optimize their cost structures.