野村上调光宝科目标价并称AI电源业务带动二季度毛利率强超预期

AI power finally endorses; maintain Buy
2Q26 GM a strong beat, reflecting strong profitability from cloud/AI products; investing to enter optical communication
Action: Maintain Buy; raise TP to TWD338, implying ~62% upside
Lite-On Tech (LOT)’s 2Q26 earnings were a strong beat, with GM jumping to 27.2% (+5.6pp q-q, +5.1pp y-y; Fig. 1 ), much higher than consensus of 23-24%, thanks to continued strong growth from cloud/AI products (sales doubling y-y, accelerating from 70%+ y-y growth in 1Q26), as some AI/ cloud shipments were pushed out from 1Q26 to 2Q26. Although there were some one-off factors behind the significantly high 2Q26 GM, management believes the average GM level (24.7%, or ~25%) in 1H26 could be the baseline, with upside into 2H26E (in line with our expectation). We raise our AI/cloud growth estimates for LOT to 80-90% in 2026F, vs prior 70-80% and the company guidance of 70%+ due to the strong demand of Trainium 3 and Graviton 4/5 from AWS (AMZN US, Not rated) which is LOT’s largest customer, as well as recent demand upside on GB 300 from neoclouds . We, hence, raise our earnings by 21.1%/18.5%/18.8% for 2026F/27F/28F (Fig. 2 ) due to the stronger AI/could growth and better margin profiles. For 2H26F, we believe LOT will continue to benefit from Trainium 3’s PSU/BBU ramp-up and spec upgrades (to 8.5kW from 5.5kW, with power rack design), the ramp-up of the new VR200’s 110kW PSU, and aforementioned GB300 order increase from neoclouds. We maintain our Buy rating and raise TP to TWD338, based on unchanged 20x 2027F EPS of TWD16.91 (from TWD285; 20x P/E is at the higher end of the historical band). The stock currently trades at 12x 2027F P/E.
New customer progress and 800VDC progress on track
Management notes LOT’s 800VDC sample will be ready by late-3Q26E, and is expected to pass qualifications before the year-end, targeted for shipments from end-2026E with increased volume in 2027E. The progress of 800VDC for its ASIC client could be faster than a GPU client. LOT targets to penetrate two more new CSP customers— one in 2026E and the other in 2027E— in addition to its existing three top CSP customers. We think LOT has been trying to penetrate Google (GOOGL US, NR) as a new client through various offerings (including PSU/BBU/ CBU, and/or rack chassis). If LOT can succeed and build a relationship with Google, we view it as a milestone for the company. We also think LOT will replicate the strategy to penetrate Meta (META US, NR) later on.
Investing in DenseLight to enter optical communication field
LOT has announced to acquire a 21% interest in DenseLight (unlisted) at USD34.3mn, a Singapore-based IDM with InP processing capabilities. DenseLight’s portfolio includes CW-DFB laser, gain chips and semiconductor optical amplifiers (SOAs), and LOT will leverage DenseLight’s laser along with its own optical package to address optical communication opportunities.