瑞银上调 nVent 2027年数据中心业务与EPS预测并将目标价提高至225美元

After another blockbuster quarter, we reiterate our positive view on NVT shares and raise our 2027 sales and EPS forecasts to 17-19% above current consensus. We think the momentum that NVT is building this year should carry through to 2027, where we now forecast 25% organic growth vs consensus of 16%. Our projection for strong topline growth is driven by NVT's infrastructure business (led by data centers), and we expect it to translate into 2027 EPS of $6.91, well ahead of consensus of $5.82 and representing 30% earnings growth on top of the 55% we expect this year. This is a very large increase in NVT's earnings power, which should translate into meaningful upside to shares. Our new price target of $225 is up from $200 and 40% above current levels. Maintain Buy.
More details on our forecasts: The raise to our forecasts is underpinned by continued strength in NVT's data center business, which we expect to add another $1 billion of revenues in 2027. This represents 50% year over year growth and would bring NVT's total data center revenues to over $3 billion in 2027. Assuming a 30 gigawatt data center market, and NVT's $1 million of content per megawatt, this equates to about 10% share of a $30 billion addressable market.
At the industry level we see sustainable momentum from a large 160-gigawatt pipeline of data center projects, in addition to increasing share of liquid cooling in data centers, which is currently around 10-15%. NVT's is well positioned to meet growing demand, and last week announced further capacity expansion with another facility in Minnesota to begin production in the first half of 2027 and employ more than 200 people.
Outside of data center, our forecast for 25% consolidated organic sales growth next year assumes 12% growth in power utilities and 5% growth in industrial and commercial/residential.
Valuation:
We raise our price target to $225 from $200 on higher earnings forecasts. This is partially offset by valuation, and we now apply 30x NTM P/E to our forecasts, vs prior assumption of 35x. The lower multiple reflects a broader de-rating and still assumes an NVT premium to the XLI of approximately 25%. We think that NVT's ability to deliver sustainable double digit organic sales growth support this premium.