瑞银首次覆盖SK海力士ADR并给出买入评级，但核心HBM/存储景气逻辑并非新增硬催化

Initiating coverage on SK Hynix - ADR (SKHY) with a Buy rating and a price target of US$204, this analysis highlights that the stock has declined 33% from its July 14 peak and 13% from its US$149 offering price, currently discounting a long-term ROE of 17.7%—far below the projected 40.2% average for 2027-2031. The memory semiconductor industry is undergoing structural changes, with agentic AI set to drive DRAM bit demand growth to 36% YoY in 2027 (up from 22% in 2026) and NAND demand to 23% YoY (up from 20%). Current valuations fail to reflect the sector's structurally higher profitability, stronger free cash flow (FCF) generation, and enhanced shareholder returns. Key takeaways from 2Q26 results include faster-than-expected progress on long-term agreements (LTAs), advanced HBM negotiations for 2027+, a 30% QoQ DRAM ASP increase constrained by product mix and late-quarter HBM4 shipments, and raised capex guidance to "high Won40tn". Valuation is based on a 3.65x NTM P/BV for local shares, converted to the ADR target price using a 1:10 ratio and latest FX rates.
AI-Driven Memory Demand to Sustain Supply Shortfall Through 2028
Agentic AI is boosting memory demand across multiple segments, including DDR5/LPDDR5 for conventional servers and AI server CPU head nodes, as well as NAND flash for KV Cache and storage. DRAM bit end-consumption is forecast to grow 36% YoY in 2027, up from 22% in 2026, while NAND flash demand will rise 23% YoY from 20%. Almost all incremental DRAM wafer capacity is allocated to HBM, and no new non-China NAND capacity is being added, meaning supply will not keep pace with demand. The primary risk is affordability, as industry revenues are projected to approach US$1.8tn in 2027.
SK Hynix to Maintain Strong HBM Position, With Minor Market Share Shift in 2027
Industry HBM capacity is expected to reach 230k wpm by end-2026 and 270k wpm by end-2027, driving HBM shipments to 17.2bn Gb in 2026 (+37% YoY) and 23.0bn Gb in 2027 (+34% YoY). SK Hynix will retain the top HBM market share in 2026 with 48% of industry bit shipments, but is forecast to slip slightly below Samsung in 2027, holding 39% compared to Samsung's 41% and Micron's 20%.
Significant Shareholder Returns Expected Amid Strong FCF Generation
Despite upwardly revised capex forecasts, SK Hynix is projected to generate FCF of Won188tn in 2026E, Won320tn in 2027E, and Won374tn in 2028E. The company is expected to initiate share buybacks in 2H26 (estimated at Won12tn), with a comprehensive update to its shareholder return policy likely during the 3Q26 conference call. Over time, SK Hynix is expected to move toward returning 50% of FCF to shareholders via a combination of dividends and share buybacks.