瑞银Codex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 00:53:13时区推断·⟳ 抓取 00:58:30·⚡ 决策 08-04 01:01:15 +2m45s·84.7 天前
瑞银称创意二季度EPS为11.61元、略超上修预期但毛利率环比下滑
创意（3443.TW）Q2 EPS 11.61元高于瑞银上修后与市场预期，正面增量来自营收放大后的经营杠杆。
📄 原文瑞银↗ 原文
Fast Take Global Unichip
GUC posted Q2 EPS of NT$11.61, ahead of upwardly revised UBSe and consensus due to operating leverage. Our Take Q226 GM…
不做 创意（3443.TW）
不做：这是绩后券商点评而非财报首发，Q2营收、EPS约11元和毛利率下滑预期已在7月初传播；当前缺少新增上修指引，等8月4日法说会若给出实质新指引再由新信号判断。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 创意6月营收49.28亿元、Q2营收138.97亿元已公开，AI/ASIC需求和Turnkey高占比已经被市场讨论。
- 媒体已报道法人预估Q2 EPS约11元、毛利率将因Turnkey占比高而下滑，并提到全年业绩可能上修。市场反应:同日早盘创意一度反弹近5%的报道显示营收与预期已被市场交易。
- 公司公告将于2026年7月30日召开董事会通过2026年第二季财务报告，财报日程已提前明牌。
- 瑞银称创意Q2 EPS为11.61元，高于上修后的瑞银与共识预期，但毛利率21.5%环比下滑5.7个百分点。
关键理由
- 创意（3443.TW）Q2 EPS 11.61元高于瑞银上修后与市场预期，正面增量来自营收放大后的经营杠杆。
- 但6月营收、Q2营收季增与EPS约11元的预期已在7月初财经媒体传播，当前瑞银点评更像绩后确认而非新催化。
- 毛利率21.5%环比下降5.7个百分点，且Turnkey占比提高导致毛利率承压已被提前讨论，缺少新的上修指引或订单金额。
主要风险
- 8月4日台股开盘前已不是财报首发窗口，若法说会没有新增全年指引，上行动能容易被当作明牌财报兑现。
- 公开可取价格显示创意7月内曾从高位快速回落且波动很大，财报后追价的风险高于等待法说新增信息。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-07 · 影响 weakens
Q2 EPS约11元和毛利率下滑的关键预期在瑞银点评前已被媒体报道。
检索:創意 6月營收 EPS 11元 毛利率 下滑 Turnkey 比重 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-22 · 影响 weakens
公司7月22日已公告7月30日审议Q2财报，日程性财报披露降低突发性。
检索:創意 3443 第二季 財報 董事會 7月30日 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-28 · 影响 weakens
公开价格轨迹显示7月内高波动并快速回落，追绩后确认消息的胜率不清晰。
检索:3443 創意 歷史價格 2026 7月 4050 3660 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,126 字
GUC posted Q2 EPS of NT$11.61, ahead of upwardly revised UBSe and consensus due to operating leverage.
Our Take
Q226 GM came in at 21.5%, down 5.7 ppts QoQ, in line with UBSe/VA's ~22% likely due to higher sales mix from advanced node projects for both NRE and turnkey, in our view. GUC will host a physical result meeting tomorrow at 2pm TW time.
Company Description
Global Unichip (GUC) is a leading IC design service company in Taiwan, founded in 1998. The company's business is to design chipsets for customers that do not have IC design capability, with the goal of reducing entry barriers and risks for chipset design and shortening the time to market. The company's target to enable more IC design for start-ups and system companies is complimentary with TSMC, which would benefit from a growing customer and application base, in addition to the company's existing IC design and IDM customers.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
We value Global Unichip based on a PE methodology.
Downside risks include a slower-than-expected business recovery for mature node, lack of new project wins, and wafer capacity constraints.
Our Take
Q226 GM came in at 21.5%, down 5.7 ppts QoQ, in line with UBSe/VA's ~22% likely due to higher sales mix from advanced node projects for both NRE and turnkey, in our view. GUC will host a physical result meeting tomorrow at 2pm TW time.
Company Description
Global Unichip (GUC) is a leading IC design service company in Taiwan, founded in 1998. The company's business is to design chipsets for customers that do not have IC design capability, with the goal of reducing entry barriers and risks for chipset design and shortening the time to market. The company's target to enable more IC design for start-ups and system companies is complimentary with TSMC, which would benefit from a growing customer and application base, in addition to the company's existing IC design and IDM customers.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
We value Global Unichip based on a PE methodology.
Downside risks include a slower-than-expected business recovery for mature node, lack of new project wins, and wafer capacity constraints.
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