BernsteinCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 09:53:09时区推断·⟳ 抓取 09:58:06·⚡ 决策 08-04 09:59:01 +55s·84.2 天前
中微公司上半年业绩预告收入略低于预期，净利润高增主要来自投资收益
中微公司2Q26收入约37.8亿元，同比增35.5%，但低于一致预期约3%，短线不是干净利好。
📄 原文Bernstein↗ 原文
AMEC 2Q26 Preliminary: Rev slightly missed, net income mainly from investment gains, NPM in-line
On Aug 3rd, 2026, AMEC reported its preliminary 1H26 earnings (Exhibit 1). Results are mixed, revenue is slightly below…
不做 中微公司（688012.SH）
A股业绩预告追多硬闸不满足：归母净利润增长未超过10倍，经营性利润增速仅约85.6%至122.7%，且收入略低于一致预期；负面又不够强，不满足做空红线。
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研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-08-03 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 中微公司2Q26收入约37.8亿元，同比增35.5%，但低于一致预期约3%，短线不是干净利好。
- 归母净利润同比大增375.9%主要来自上半年约19.8亿元投资收益，经营性利润增速约85.6%至122.7%，不满足A股业绩追多的10倍增长硬闸。
- Bernstein仍看好2027/2028订单和长江存储IPO招股书催化，但这是未来预期，不是本次业绩预告的即时可交易增量。
主要风险
- 若市场更关注国产半导体设备订单上修和长江存储IPO预期，股价可能不跌反涨。
- 本次核心负面主要是小幅低于预期和利润质量，而非业绩崩塌或正式指引下修，不满足强空条件。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,354 字
AMEC 2Q26 Preliminary: Rev slightly missed, net income mainly from investment gains, NPM in-line
On Aug 3rd, 2026, AMEC reported its preliminary 1H26 earnings (Exhibit 1). Results are mixed, revenue is slightly below our estimation and consensus, NPM better than our projection but lower than consensus, and net income grow massively but is mainly from investment income. We think the market might react negatively to the print given the weak sentiment, but is probably the last dip. Next catalyst - YMTC IPO prospectus - is coming up in a few months, order growth for the company is still underestimated, reiterate Outperform.
Rev missed slightly, net income mainly from investment gain. AMEC 2Q26 revenue at RMB 3.78 billion, YoY 35.5%, -3% vs cons. Net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 1.87 billion, YoY + 375.9%, mainly from RMB 1.98 billion investment gains in 1H. Excluding the impact from investment gains, the company’s recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was between RMB 1.0-1.2 billion, YoY +85.6%-122.7%, the NPM at 16.5% is better than our projection at 15.7% but below cons. at 18.6%.
R&D ratio remain high at 30%, but the investment is good for future growth
2Q26 R&D investment was RMB 1.13 bn, 69% of that is expense, R&D ratio remain high at 30%. We continue to consider this as positive for long term, and expect that ratio should come down next year to boost NPM. The mgmt highlight that new product development cycle has been shortened to less than 2 years, heavy investment in the past few years on deposition should now be able to support fast growth in the segment. On a recurring basis, NPM at 16.5% even with 30% R&D ratio, which indicates that the company could reach ~30% NPM when the R&D investment normalized to global average at ~15%.
Order growth is still underestimated
We believe China’s WFE demand growth is still underestimated by the market. With most of the upside from CXMT already priced-in, we believe the YMTC IPO prospectus coming up in the next few months should still bring upside surprise. The consensus for AMEC revenue growth in 2027 is only at 36% YoY, which is significantly underestimated based on order they are receiving this year (we believe it could be >70% YoY). Strong China WFE upcycle plus localization share gain will bring massive upside to the earnings in 2027/28.
On Aug 3rd, 2026, AMEC reported its preliminary 1H26 earnings (Exhibit 1). Results are mixed, revenue is slightly below our estimation and consensus, NPM better than our projection but lower than consensus, and net income grow massively but is mainly from investment income. We think the market might react negatively to the print given the weak sentiment, but is probably the last dip. Next catalyst - YMTC IPO prospectus - is coming up in a few months, order growth for the company is still underestimated, reiterate Outperform.
Rev missed slightly, net income mainly from investment gain. AMEC 2Q26 revenue at RMB 3.78 billion, YoY 35.5%, -3% vs cons. Net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 1.87 billion, YoY + 375.9%, mainly from RMB 1.98 billion investment gains in 1H. Excluding the impact from investment gains, the company’s recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was between RMB 1.0-1.2 billion, YoY +85.6%-122.7%, the NPM at 16.5% is better than our projection at 15.7% but below cons. at 18.6%.
R&D ratio remain high at 30%, but the investment is good for future growth
2Q26 R&D investment was RMB 1.13 bn, 69% of that is expense, R&D ratio remain high at 30%. We continue to consider this as positive for long term, and expect that ratio should come down next year to boost NPM. The mgmt highlight that new product development cycle has been shortened to less than 2 years, heavy investment in the past few years on deposition should now be able to support fast growth in the segment. On a recurring basis, NPM at 16.5% even with 30% R&D ratio, which indicates that the company could reach ~30% NPM when the R&D investment normalized to global average at ~15%.
Order growth is still underestimated
We believe China’s WFE demand growth is still underestimated by the market. With most of the upside from CXMT already priced-in, we believe the YMTC IPO prospectus coming up in the next few months should still bring upside surprise. The consensus for AMEC revenue growth in 2027 is only at 36% YoY, which is significantly underestimated based on order they are receiving this year (we believe it could be >70% YoY). Strong China WFE upcycle plus localization share gain will bring massive upside to the earnings in 2027/28.
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