高盛称安靠科技二季报利润率强劲但三季度收入指引低于预期，维持中性判断

Amkor Technology Inc. (AMKR): Solid guidance with significant margin uplift driven by improving mix and 2.5D packaging ramp
Key stock takeaways:
We expect the stock to be range bound following a strong quarter with revenue guidance that was just below the Street with significantly stronger margins, set against elevated expectations heading into the print. We believe investor positioning was bullish ahead of the quarter, mainly driven by optimism around the company’s CoWoS/2.5D-related product ramp and its recently announced partnership with Nvidia. Amkor continues to execute well on its advanced packaging roadmap, with strong momentum in both Computing and Auto/Industrial segments. We are Neutral rated as we expect Amkor to benefit from AI/HPC-driven advanced packaging tailwinds; however, we would prefer to see stronger evidence of sustained operating leverage and improving cash flow before being more constructive on the stock at current levels.
Quarterly results were above the Street:
Amkor reported revenue of $1.90 bn, above GS and the Street (Visible Alpha) at $1.82 bn. By end market, Communications was up 8% QoQ, Computing was up 18% QoQ, Automotive and Industrial was up 18% QoQ, and Consumer was up 13% QoQ. Gross margin of 16.8% was well above GS at 15.2% and the Street at 15.1%. Operating margin of 10.5% was also above GS at 8.7% and the Street at 8.5%. Operating EPS of $0.70 was well above GS at $0.49 and the Street at $0.48.
Communications segment:
Communications revenue grew 32% YoY in 2Q, in line with guidance, driven by iOS strength the iOS ecosystem that offset continued Android weakness. Management expects a high-single digit QoQ decline in 3Q, significantly worse than typically strong seasonality due to: (1) the SiP production transfer from Korea to Vietnam, (2) memory-related demand destruction, (3) customer inventory build patterns.
Strategic partnerships:
Amkor highlighted strategic partnerships in key markets as a key pillar of long-term growth for the company. In addition to already announced 10-year advanced packaging and testing agreement with TSMC, Amkor also highlighted its recently announced multi-year partnership with Nvidia for advanced packaging and testing solutions. As part of the deal, Amkor is expected to receive $1.5 bn as prepayment from Nvidia in 2027 to support the expansion of Amkor’s US advanced packaging capacity.
Stronger margins:
Amkor delivered a strong 2Q margin beat (with gross margins exceeding Street expectations by ~165bps) and guided 3Q gross margin to 19% at the midpoint, ~250bps above consensus. We believe the upside was driven by (1) higher utilization rate; (2) a strong ramp in advanced packaging revenues, supported by Computing and Automotive/Industrial segments, both of which came in more than 10% above Street estimates, and are expected to ramp in 2H.
3Q guidance was just below the Street on revenue, but significantly higher on margins and EPS:
Revenue was guided to $2.00 bn at the midpoint, which is in line with GS prior at $2.00 bn but below the Street at $2.09 bn. EPS guidance of $0.72 - $0.82 (midpoint $0.77) was well above GS prior at $0.61 and the Street at $0.63. Gross margin is expected to increase by 220 bps at the midpoint in 3Q.
Estimate changes.
We increase our 2026-28 EPS estimates to reflect higher revenue and margin assumptions. (see detailed estimates below — Exhibit 3).
Price target.
We keep our 12-month price target unchanged at $65, which is based on a 25X P/E multiple applied to our normalized EPS of $2.60. Key upside/downside risks: (1) better-than-expected volumes in the 2.5D packaging business; (2) better gross margin leverage from utilization of new production facilities; (3) failure to execute on the 2.5D packaging roadmap; (4) failure to execute on new smartphone design wins.
We remain Neutral rated on AMKR. We believe Amkor continues to benefit from market tailwinds across the advanced computing space, as well as a recovery in its smartphone business. We also think the company is positioned well to serve as a second key packaging source for 2.5D supply used in advanced computing products from a range of customers. However, we see limited upside in the stock until the company can drive stronger operating leverage in the model or greater scale in 2.5D packaging.