美国高盛Codex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 13:38:05时区推断·⟳ 抓取 13:43:16·⚡ 决策 08-04 13:44:23 +1m07s·84.1 天前
Cadence业绩基本符合预期并上调2026年指引，高盛预计股价区间震荡
Cadence季度收入与市场预期基本一致，EPS和IP收入好于预期，2026年收入与EPS指引上调。
📄 原文美国高盛↗ 原文
Key stock takeaways: We expect the stock to be range bound following a solid print and raised 2026 guidance. We believe…
不做 Cadence Design Systems（CDNS.US）
财报收入基本符合Street预期，指引上调幅度有限，且高盛明确预计股价区间震荡；作为财报后研报解读没有足够短线正期望，不做。
不做 Synopsys（SNPS.US）
仅为同业温和读-through，没有SNPS自身新增订单、指引或业绩超预期信息，不能形成可执行同向交易。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- Cadence季度收入与市场预期基本一致，EPS和IP收入好于预期，2026年收入与EPS指引上调。
- 高盛原文判断股价大概率区间震荡，核心关注点仍是电话会中AI工具定价、EDA订单和仿真硬件需求的可持续性。
- 对Synopsys的读-through被高盛明确描述为初步反应偏温和，缺少可独立交易的增量催化。
主要风险
- 该信号是研报解读而非一手财报首发，且文本自身强调预期内和区间震荡，短线edge不足。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,367 字
Key stock takeaways:
We expect the stock to be range bound following a solid print and raised 2026 guidance. We believe investors were positioned relatively cautiously around the quarter given the defense nature of Cadence’s business, as well as concerns around potential disruption risk from open-source AI models, among other factors. We expect investors to focus on critical elements of management’s commentary on the conference call, including: (1) potential revenue and pricing upside from customer adoption of AI-enabled tools; (2) the health of the bookings environment for EDA software; (3) sustainability of demand for simulation hardware.
Quarterly revenue results in line with the Street, with stronger margins:
Cadence reported revenue of $1.58 bn, in line with GS at $1.59 bn and the Street (Visible Alpha) at $1.58 bn, while operating margin of 45.5% was just above GS and the Street at 45.0%. Non-GAAP EPS (excl. SBC) of $2.11 was above GS and the Street at $2.05. Core EDA revenue of $1.08 mn was in line with GS and the Street at $1.10 bn, IP revenue of $238 mn was well above GS at $209 mn and the Street at $216 mn, and System Design and Analysis revenue of $269 mn was below GS at $290 mn and in line with the Street at $268 mn. Backlog at the end of the quarter was up to $8.1 bn (from $8.0 bn last quarter).
2026 guidance raised.
Cadence raised its 2026 guidance and EPS outlook. Revenue was guided to a range of $6.26 to $6.34 bn or $6.30 bn at the midpoint (vs. $6.125 to $6.225 bn prior, including the Hexagon acquisition which closed on Feb. 23), which is above GS at $6.24 bn and above the Street at $6.21 bn. Operating margin was guided to a range of 43.75% to 44.75% or 44.25% at the midpoint (vs. 43.5% to 44.5% prior), which is below GS at 45.4% but above the Street at 44.1%. EPS guidance was guided to a range of $8.05 - $8.15 or $7.90 at the midpoint (vs. $7.85 - $7.95 prior, including Hexagon dilution), which is above GS at $8.00 but below the Street at $7.95.
Read-through to our coverage:
We expect a muted initial reaction for peer SNPS given its similar customer and end market exposure.
Price target and risks:
Our 12-month target price is $470, which is based on a 45X multiple applied to our normalized EPS estimate of $10.50. Downside risks: (1) export restrictions; (2) market share losses; (3) fewer custom chip designs.
We expect the stock to be range bound following a solid print and raised 2026 guidance. We believe investors were positioned relatively cautiously around the quarter given the defense nature of Cadence’s business, as well as concerns around potential disruption risk from open-source AI models, among other factors. We expect investors to focus on critical elements of management’s commentary on the conference call, including: (1) potential revenue and pricing upside from customer adoption of AI-enabled tools; (2) the health of the bookings environment for EDA software; (3) sustainability of demand for simulation hardware.
Quarterly revenue results in line with the Street, with stronger margins:
Cadence reported revenue of $1.58 bn, in line with GS at $1.59 bn and the Street (Visible Alpha) at $1.58 bn, while operating margin of 45.5% was just above GS and the Street at 45.0%. Non-GAAP EPS (excl. SBC) of $2.11 was above GS and the Street at $2.05. Core EDA revenue of $1.08 mn was in line with GS and the Street at $1.10 bn, IP revenue of $238 mn was well above GS at $209 mn and the Street at $216 mn, and System Design and Analysis revenue of $269 mn was below GS at $290 mn and in line with the Street at $268 mn. Backlog at the end of the quarter was up to $8.1 bn (from $8.0 bn last quarter).
2026 guidance raised.
Cadence raised its 2026 guidance and EPS outlook. Revenue was guided to a range of $6.26 to $6.34 bn or $6.30 bn at the midpoint (vs. $6.125 to $6.225 bn prior, including the Hexagon acquisition which closed on Feb. 23), which is above GS at $6.24 bn and above the Street at $6.21 bn. Operating margin was guided to a range of 43.75% to 44.75% or 44.25% at the midpoint (vs. 43.5% to 44.5% prior), which is below GS at 45.4% but above the Street at 44.1%. EPS guidance was guided to a range of $8.05 - $8.15 or $7.90 at the midpoint (vs. $7.85 - $7.95 prior, including Hexagon dilution), which is above GS at $8.00 but below the Street at $7.95.
Read-through to our coverage:
We expect a muted initial reaction for peer SNPS given its similar customer and end market exposure.
Price target and risks:
Our 12-month target price is $470, which is based on a 45X multiple applied to our normalized EPS estimate of $10.50. Downside risks: (1) export restrictions; (2) market share losses; (3) fewer custom chip designs.
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