高盛称KLA业绩扎实但2027增长展望低于偏高买方预期，预计股价承压

Key stock takeaways: We expect the stock to trade lower following a solid quarter,
with guidance that were consistent with Street numbers but below elevated investor
expectations (per our conversations). We believe investor expectations were
somewhat elevated heading into the print, with tailwinds to WFE trends and upside
in advanced node logic spending being partly offset by concerns around lower
process-control intensity. Specifically, we believe the company’s preliminary outlook
for mid-20% revenue growth in 2027 is likely to be viewed as disappointing relative
to more bullish WFE expectations among investors. We continue to believe that KLA
is extremely well positioned with its best-in-class product portfolio and can gain
share in the long term. However, we remain Neutral on KLAC as we favor companies
with greater exposure to etch and deposition given the industry’s shift to greater
DRAM spending in the near term - and we see the stock’s valuation as relatively full
at current levels.
Read-through to our coverage: We expect a modestly negative reaction for AMAT (Buy) and LRCX (Buy) in our coverage given their similar end-market exposure.
Quarterly results just above the Street
KLA reported revenue of $3.66 bn, just above GS at $3.62 bn and the Street (Visible Alpha) at $3.61 bn, while gross margin of 62.4% was just above GS at 62.1% and the Street at 61.9%. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.05 was above GS at $1.01 and the Street at $1.00. Systems revenue of $2.84bn was above GS at $2.80 bn and the Street at $2.81 bn, and Service revenue of $820 mn was above GS at $814 mn and the Street at $813 mn.
WFE Outlook
KLA management increased its guidance for total WFE to grow to over $150bn in 2026 (including advanced packaging), up from the low-$140bn range previously. For KLA, the company expects to grow in the mid-20% range relative to prior expectations of “high teens” for the full year CY26, with 2H trends improving off the 1H base and its semiconductor process control business growing over 20% H/H. In 2027, KLA believes that a WFE estimate of $190bn (up 25% Y/Y) is reasonable - and management believes it can match this growth rate of 25%, consistent with CY26.
Advanced Packaging
Management increased its CY26 advanced packaging process control growth outlook to $1.1bn, which represents a significant improvement relative to prior expectations. KLA reiterated its confidence in the current market momentum and emphasized that continued share gains in advanced packaging should further support KLA’s growth this year through SAM expansion.
Margins and operating leverage
KLA has seen better gross margin trends despite DRAM cost headwinds, and remains comfortable it can sustain gross margins at or above the 62% level going forward. Management expects to increase OpEx by $15-20mn QoQ over the coming quarters, and believes it can deliver 40%-50% incremental margin drop-through in the medium term.
3Q revenue guidance is slightly above the Street, with EPS above
KLA guided 3Q just above the Street on revenue and EPS. Revenue was guided to $4.00 bn at the midpoint, which is slightly above GS at $3.93 bn and the Street at $3.95 bn. Gross margin was guided to 62.5%, which is just above GS at 61.9% and the Street at 62.2%. Non-GAAP EPS guidance of $1.16 at the midpoint is above GS at $1.11 and the Street at $1.13. By end market, Foundry/Logic is expected to contribute 73% of revenue, with Memory expected to be 27% (of which DRAM is 90% and NAND is 10%).
Estimate changes
We increase our CY26-28 EPS estimates by an average of 12% to reflect higher revenue and operating margin assumptions (see detailed estimates below — Exhibit 3).
Price target
We lower our price target to $210 (from $230 prior), which is based on a 32X P/E multiple (from 35X prior on lower peer multiples) applied to our normalized EPS of $6.50. Key upside/downside risks: (1) sharp increase in Foundry/Logic spending; (2) uncertainty related to export restrictions were to be removed; (3) sharp rebound in Memory WFE spending (vis-a-vis Foundry/Logic); (4) incremental US export restrictions.
We remain Neutral rated on KLAC. We see KLA as a dominant franchise with a ~6.5X market share advantage over its nearest competitor in process control. However, we do not expect process control to outgrow WFE spending in the near term, and we see KLAC’s valuation as relatively full at current levels.