卡特彼勒二季度业绩超预期并上调全年收入指引，摩根士丹利提示对迪尔有正面读透

See below for notable takeaways from CAT's earnings release. For a more detailed variance table of results vs. expectations see Exhibit 1 and guidance update summary table in Exhibit 2.
• (+) 2Q26 Adj. EPS of $8.17 beat vs. MSe of $6.60 / cons of $6.10. Excluding the ~$0.65 IEEPA refunds, the ~$0.50 of better than expected tariff costs, and the ~$0.30 of gain on divestiture, EPS still came in modestly ahead of MSe at ~$6.72.
• (+) 2Q26 Adj. Operating Profit Margin of 21.9% was ahead of MSe of 19.4% and Cons of 18.8% driven by in part by a $392M benefit of IEEPA tariff recovery.
• (+) Order backlog growth: CAT reported record order backlog of $72.1B an increase of $9.4B over 1Q26 and implies an 1.5x book-to-bill.
• (+) Dealer inventories of machines continued to build with Construction Industries building another $400M and Total Dealer inventory building ~$600M. Given continued strength in retail sales to users, we suspect the market will view this largely as a positive trend underscoring the strong market demand.
• (+) Raised Full Year 2026 Outlook:
° Raised sales guide to now be "mid-to-high teens growth" as compared to "low double-digit growth" previously.
° Adj. Operating Profit Margin is still expected to be "Near the bottom of target range," but CAT qualified that this is excluding IEEPA tariff recoveries
° MP&E FCF now expected to be "top half of the annual target range" annually from previously higher vs. 2025
• (+) Retail sales were up +33% yoy in Power & Energy, +22% in Construction Industries, and +17% in Resource Industries
• (+) Lowered Tariff Headwind Guide to "around $2.2B" from previously $2.2-2.4B
• (+/=) Investor Positioning: Despite the recent momentum trade-related pullback, Caterpillar shares have remained a consensus long position among investors with the thesis that Mining and Construction would add two incremental legs of growth to the AI driven narrative. Accordingly, we think expectations for CAT have remained elevated into the print, but we think the strong book-to-bill, record backlog, solid beats across all segments and EPS beat, even after backing out tariff refunds and lowered tariff costs will support solid share performance on the day.
Outstanding Questions / Our Focus on Conf Call:
° Incremental color on the underlying order backlog, particularly parsing out the growth by segment and any incremental insight on the cadence of growth expected for power generation related to data center growth
° Quarter-to-date commentary on 3Q demand trends, particularly in power generation
° Price and volume expectations across construction, mining, and power generation, and any reads on data center demand
Read Throughs:
° A positive read through for other major Construction OEMs, with DE being the primary one that has yet to report.
Key Takeaways
2Q26 Adj. EPS of $8.17 (including ~$1.45 of one time benefits and lower tariff costs) beat vs. MSe of $6.60 / cons of $6.10.
Raised FY26 revenue guide to "mid-to-high teens growth" from "low double digits" vs. MSe 15.2% and cons +13.1%.
Guided to adj. operating profit margin still near the bottom end of the target range when excluding IEEPA tariff recoveries.
Stock Reaction: Expect a positive stock reaction to the beat & raise that we think delivered on bulls expectations with another record backlog and book to bill.