康明斯二季度EPS低于一致预期但上调全年销售与EBITDA指引

CMI reported 2Q26 adj. EPS of $6.73, vs Citi/FactSet Consensus of $6.59/$7.21. Segment adj. EBITDA of $1,653mn (17.5% margin) came in above our $1,592mn (17.2% margin) estimate, largely driven by better-than-anticipated Engine segment margins. Consolidated top-line results came in ~2% ahead of our model. CMI raised its 2026 consolidated sales guidance to a midpoint of +11.5% vs +9.5% prior, driven by a more constructive outlook for Engine & Components segments. CMI did trim the midpoints of its 2026 adj. EBITDA margin guide for all core segments, but raised its consolidated segment EBITDA margin guide by ~13-bps at the midpoint. We think CMI's updated guidance implies 2026 adj. EPS of ~$29 vs ~$28 prior, which compares to Citi/Consensus estimates of $28.10/$29.28. We would anticipate a slightly negative reaction for CMI shares following the mixed 2Q results and raised guidance, which we think implies 2H EPS relatively in-line with Street estimates.
Segment Results
Engine sales came in at $3,084mn (up ~6% y/y), above our $2,990mn estimate, while segment adj. EBITDA margin of 12.5% was ~50-bps above our model. Components sales came in at $2,891mn (up ~7% y/y), above our $2,786mn estimate, while segment adj. EBITDA margin of 13.2% was in-line with our model. Distribution sales came in at $3,326mn (up ~9%), below our $3,345mn estimate, while segment adj. EBITDA margin of 13.6% was ~15-bps below our model. Power Systems sales came in at $2,255mn (up ~19% y/y), above our $2,218mn estimate, while segment adj. EBITDA margin of 24.5% was in-line with our model. Accelera sales came in at $145mn vs our $63mn estimate and Accelera adj. EBITDA of ($69mn) was above our ($72mn) estimate.
Updated 2026 Guidance
CMI raised its guidance for 2026 consolidated sales growth (to a midpoint of +11.5% y/y from +9.5% y/y prior), JV earnings growth (to a midpoint of +20% y/y from +15% y/y prior), and EBITDA margin (to a range of 18-18.5% from a range of 17.75-18.5% prior). At the segment level, CMI raised its 2026 sales outlook by 200-bps in Engine and 300-bps in Components at the midpoints, and brought up its Accelera sales outlook to $375mn at the midpoint from $325mn prior. CMI did trim the midpoint of its 2026 adj. EBITDA margin guide for Engine, Components, Distribution and Power Systems Segments, while raising its Accelera adj. EBITDA guidance by ~4% at the midpoint.
Updated 2026 Market Assumptions
CMI raised its On-Hwy engine market forecast for HDT NA (to +10-15% from +5-15% prior), MDT NA (to +20-30% from +15-25% prior), and Heavy & Medium Truck China (to down (5%)-5% from down (10%)-flat prior). CMI also brought up its construction and parts revenue outlooks, while lowering its mining revenue outlook for 2026.
Implications
We would anticipate a slightly negative reaction for CMI shares following the mixed 2Q results and raised guidance, which we think implies 2H EPS relatively in-line with Street estimates.