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摩根大通Doubao · 实盘不做把握 6/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·🕒 发布 10-12 07:58:05·⟳ 抓取 01:33:38·⚡ 决策 10-13 01:35:55 +2m17s·14.7 天前

摩根大通维持联发科(2454.TW)增持与5600元目标价:3Q26营收超指引,TPU v8t四季度放量、v9年底前如期tape-out

核心数据是联发科官方月度营收(10月上旬已公开),JPM仅维持评级与目标价、无上调;新增内容是分析师渠道调研观点而非公司披露。报告于台北周一07:19盘前分发,到判定时刻周一全天交易已结束,最直接的反应窗口已过,且个股TPU逻辑年内已大幅重定价(1月NT$1,775至9月高点NT$5,480、近20日+23%),追周二开盘缺乏预期差。

📄 原文摩根大通↗ 原文
J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 12 October 2026 MediaTek Inc. 3Q26 revenue beats guidance on SoC pull-ins;…
不做 联发科(2454.TW)
卖方研报基于官方已公布月营收,评级与目标价均未上调,TPU进展为调研口径重申而非新催化;报告周一盘前分发、周一交易日已完整结束,且股价年内大涨、近20日+23%、9/29曾单日-7.1%,高位追周二开盘无预期差;实时行情不可用亦无法确认承接,故不做
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

这是一份基于公开月营收的卖方跟踪报告,维持OW与NT$5,600目标价不变,超预期数据官方早已披露,TPU进展为调研口径的重申;盘前发布后周一交易日已完整消化,在已大涨、拥挤的多头结构下无新增edge,不做。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-09 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-10-12 07:19 HKT首发J.P. Morgan Asia Pacific Equity Research(Gangtise镜像)一手源原文 ↗
    报告于台北周一开盘前07:19分发,维持OW与NT$5,600目标价;至判定时(10-13 01:33台北)周一全天已收盘,事件反应窗口已结束
    市场反应:实际周一反应未能核验(行情服务不可用,快照止于9/29收盘NT$4,910)

关键理由

  • 3Q26 NT$168bn超指引上限约5%且4Q26受TPU v8t放量驱动环比+35%以上,基本面方向正面,但均为已公开月营收与卖方预测,不构成新事件

主要风险

  • JPM报告自披露为联发科做市商且有投行业务利益冲突,其渠道调研(v8t按计划、2027年180亿美元)若被后续公司口径或v9 tape-out噪音证伪,高位股价回撤风险大
  • 实时行情不可用,无法确认周一是否已高开低走;9/29曾单日-7.1%,高位波动剧烈,盲目追入存在见光死风险

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-10-12 · 影响 weakens
    股价年内自NT$1,775升至约NT$4,900-5,480区间,TPU故事已大幅price-in;JPM自承做市商并寻求投行业务报酬,且本次无评级/目标价上调,9/29单日-7.1%显示高位获利了结压力
    检索:9/29日线-7.1%、近20日+23.2%、52周高5480、JPM目标价维持不变+做市商/投行利益冲突披露 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例缺失叠加窗口已过,支持不做而非凭感觉追入

方向:未取得足够对齐先例

涨幅量级:无法用先例校准幅度

形态:卖方维持评级/目标价型研报通常非独立催化,9/29单日-7.1%显示高位对利好兑现敏感

工具执行结果 · 成功 3 · 降级 1 · 失败 1 · 取消 0
  1. search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 18 ms
    {"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`mediatek 2454 september revenue nt$168bn tpuv8t zebrafish ramp | mediatek 联发科 3q26 9月营收 tpu v8t 摩根大通 | 联发科 tpu v9 humufish tape-out 2027 asic 180亿美元`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选,不能据此证明消息首发或不是重
  2. stock_quote 失败 stock_tools HTTP · 10 ms
    行情服务暂不可用;本次无法核验该标的价格和可执行条件。请基于其余证据继续判断并明确标注行情降级;不得仅因工具故障自动给出 AVOID 或 ENTER,也不得编造价位。
  3. price_snapshot 降级 stock_tools HTTP · 31 ms
    {
  4. search_case_library 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 453 ms
    {"result": "search_case_library「2454.TW」—— 与这些标的相关的自家决策案例(本页 10 条,该标的全历史相关记录共 129 条;ENTER 只按该标的自己的腿统计):\n◆ 2454.TW:相关历史决策 129 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 0 条(0.0%) · 我们从没在这只票上 ENTER 过\n【对所查标的真 ENTER 过的:0 条 —— 相关案例里没有该标的自己的 ENTER 腿】\n【最近 10 条其它决策(多为「不做」,用来看这票最近在被什么消息刷屏)】\n• 2026-09-09 UTC 不做 · 事件:Dan Nystedt 于 2
  5. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,091 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:MediaTek 2454 September 2026 revenue NT$55.4 billion monthly revenue announcement;API SearchType:web)

原文全文

展开原文 · 42,667 字
J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research
12 October 2026

MediaTek Inc.
3Q26 revenue beats guidance on SoC pull-ins; TPUv8t
ramping in 4Q, while v9 should tape out as scheduled

•

•

3Q26 revenue came in ahead of JPMe/consensus; TPU v8t revenues
expected to kick in from 4Q26: MediaTek Sep revenue came in at NT
$55.4bn, up 2% YoY and down 14% MoM. 3Q26 sales came in at NT$168bn,
up 10% QoQ and 18% YoY, ahead of JPMe/consensus estimates by ~8% and
surpassing the high end of guidance by ~5% (3Q26 guidance NT$152.2bn159.8bn). We believe the strong 3Q26 revenue was driven by smartphone pullin ahead of MediaTek's planned SoC price increases and very small revenue
contribution for TPUv8t, given the start of initial shipments. We expect GMs
to be around the mid-point of guidance (JPMe 46%, company guided 44.5%47.5%) as the benefit from price hikes is likely to be offset by rising cost
pressures from Foundry, OSAT and substrates. For 4Q26, we expect revenue
to be up 35%+ QoQ mainly due to TPU v8t revenues starting to flow through
and expect GMs to decline by 1.5ppts QoQ to 44.5% with FY26 GMs at 45.6%.
TPUv8t Zebrafish ramp remains on track; TPUv9 Humufish progressing
toward final tape-out by year-end: Recent investor discussion has been
focused on delays in TPUv8t ramp, v9 tapeout and uncertainty on v10
allocation. Based on our checks, MediaTek's TPUv8t Zebrafish continues to
ramp on schedule at TSMC, and remains on track to generate $2bn+ in
revenues in 2026. For 2027, we see potential unit upside, driving Datacenter
ASIC revenues to ~$18bn, above the company's recent $12-16bn guidance
range, especially as MediaTek appears to be able to bring on more substrate
vendors. Our checks also indicate that TPUv9 Humufish is progressing well,
with several chiplet-level tape-outs already completed on N3 and N2, and we
continue to expect final tape-out in 4Q26. We would expect some noise around
tapeout for TPUv9, similar to all other ASICs, given most new ASICs, GPUs
are now going through at least two tapeouts before entering mass production.
The next watch points for the stock are: (1) TPUv9 tapeout (likely in Nov-Dec,
in our view); (2) award of TPU v10 CTO version, which we expect in the next
few months after the recent delays; and (3) any new customer projects being
confirmed, likely SPCX/TSLA ASIC. Looking ahead, we continue to see
MediaTek’s Datacenter ASIC revenues scaling toward $80-100bn annual
revenue run-rate by 2030, as long as AI compute demand stays strong.

Overweight
2454.TW, 2454 TT
Price (08 Oct 26):NT$4,690.00
Price Target (Jun-27):NT$5,600.00

Technology and Telecoms
Gokul Hariharan AC
(852) 2800-8564
gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.
Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Jennifer Hsieh
(886-2) 2725-9868
jennifer.hsieh@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

David Chou
(886-2) 2725-9618
david.chou@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

Jason Chen
(886-2) 2725-9864
jason.bh.chen@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

Subham Singhania
(91-22) 6157-3801
subham.singhania@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan India Private Limited, J.P. Morgan
Tower, Santacruz(E), Mumbai - 400098, SEBI
Registration: INH000001873, (91-22) 6157-3000.

See page 3 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.

Gokul Hariharan AC
(852) 2800-8564
gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research
12 October 2026

JPMORGAN

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks
MediaTek Inc. (Overweight; Price Target: NT$5,600.00)
Investment Thesis
We are OW on MediaTek, given its TPU opportunity should continue to grow over the next
4-5 years and has the ability to reach $80-100bn annual run-rate by 2030E. We believe that
Mediatek is likely to have majority unit share within TPUv8 (in 2027), be the primary ASIC
vendor for TPUv9 with a sharp jump in ASPs, and is in pole position to emerge as the
primary ASIC partner for TPUv10 with rising ASP per chip. For TPUv10, we expect
Mediatek to provide I/O die, high-speed Serdes and other interconnect IP, overall packaging
design and program management, with business model similar to v9. We also believe that
the market is underestimating the OP leverage from the ASIC ramp, which should drive
significant upside to EPS ests in the next 2 years, once ASIC revenues start flowing through.
Valuation
Our Jun-27 PT of NT$5600 is based on a 24x PE multiple (using straight PE from SoTP,
given ASICs are now the dominant earnings driver), higher than past 10-year average,
reflecting stronger growth for future TPU opportunity.
Risks to Rating and Price Target
Key downside risks include: (1) further pressure on Smartphone SoC GMs due to cost
escalations and increased competition; and (2) slower progress on the NVDA partnership,
given NVDA’s expanded engagement with Intel and other chip makers.

2

Gokul Hariharan AC
(852) 2800-8564
gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research
12 October 2026

JPMORGAN

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Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in the financial instruments of/related to
MediaTek Inc. or related entities.
Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: MediaTek Inc. or related entities.
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as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: MediaTek Inc. or related entities.
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request.
Date

Rating

Price (NT$) Price Target
(NT$)

17-Oct-23

N

840.00

780

29-Oct-23

N

801.00

750

05-Jan-24

N

928.00

800

01-Feb-24

N

966.00

880

11-Apr-24

N

1195.00

1,050

28-Apr-24

N

1005.00

1,060

29-Jul-24

N

1245.00

1,050

01-Aug-24

N

1220.00

1,150

22-Oct-24

N

1330.00

1,175

31-Oct-24

N

1290.00

1,180

05-Feb-25

N

1490.00

1,275

27-Apr-25

N

1380.00

1,350

16-Jun-25

N

1250.00

1,300

25-Nov-25

N

1150.00

1,260

28-Jan-26

N

1775.00

1,525

05-Feb-26

N

1800.00

1,600

30-Apr-26

OW

2575.00

3,400

31-May-26

OW

4310.00

5,300

31-Aug-26

OW

3985.00

5,600

The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period.
3

Gokul Hariharan AC
(852) 2800-8564
gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research
12 October 2026

JPMORGAN

J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight (over the duration of the price target indicated in this report, we expect this stock will
outperform the average total return of the stocks in the Research Analyst’s, or the Research Analyst’s team’s, coverage universe); Neutral (over
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the certifying Research Analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan’s Research website, https://www.jpmorganmarkets.com .
Coverage Universe: Hariharan, Gokul : ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd (3711.TW), ASMPT Ltd (0522) (0522.HK), AirTAC (1590.TW),
Alchip Technologies (3661.TW), Chipbond Technology (6147.TWO), GDS Holdings (GDS), GUC (3443.TW), Hiwin (2049.TW), Hon Hai
Precision (2317.TW), MediaTek Inc. (2454.TW), Nien Made (8464.TW), Novatek Microelectronics Corp. (3034.TW), Powerchip
Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (6770.TWO), SMIC (0981) (0981.HK), Silicon Motion (SIMO), Sinbon (3023.TW), TSMC (2330.TW),
Teco Electric & Machinery (1504.TW), UMC (2303.TW), Vanguard International Semiconductor Corp. (5347.TWO), Voltronic Power
Technology (6409.TW), Xiaomi (1810) (1810.HK)
J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of October 03, 2026

J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage*
IB clients**
JPMS Equity Research Coverage*
IB clients**

Overweight
(buy)
53%
83%
51%
95%

Neutral
(hold)
35%
81%
37%
93%

Underweight
(sell)
12%
72%
12%
88%

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4

Gokul Hariharan AC
(852) 2800-8564
gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research
12 October 2026

JPMORGAN

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Asia Pacific Equity Research
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JPMORGAN

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JPMORGAN

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