富国证券微调 Instacart(CART) 3Q/4Q GTV 预测（高于共识30-50bp），维持 Equal Weight，目标价54→56美元

Raise 3Q/4Q GTV estimates on accelerating 3p trends, 50bps/30bps above consensus. Monitoring CART language around incremental investment in smaller baskets post Gopuff partnership and continued consumer behavior shift. Reiterate Equal Weight.
Forecast 4Q:26 EBITDA guide of $350-$370M, midpoint 140bps ahead of consensus, as healthy GTV and ad revenue growth sustains. Expect GTV guide of $10.95 - $11.2B, with midpoint 30bps ahead of $11.1B consensus. Expect order growth remains stable at +10% y/y, with continued AOV tailwinds of +3% y/y. Project ad revenue growth decelerates 150bps to +16.5% y/y, ahead of the +15% consensus, on 80bps tougher comps. Estimate 1p ads growth remains stable (+16% y/y) on 2pts easier comps.
Raising 3Q:26 GTV estimates 1% on strong 3p traffic trends, 50bps ahead of consensus and near HE of guide. 3p US web traffic trends accel'd 3pts 3QTD vs 2Q:26 w/ 2yr stack steadily increasing YTD. UCAN DAU trends improved in Aug & Sept vs July bottom. Expect 3Q:26 GTV of $10.51B, 30bps below the HE of guide following change to guidance philosophy disclosed on 2Q:26 call. Raise ad revenue growth 50bps to +18.0%, HE of guide and 100bps ahead of consensus. See EBITDA of $334M in-line w/ Street.
Following Gopuff partnership (9/22), look for color on potential acceleration in small basket use case on CART platform, given materially stronger growth at DASH & UBER (+~50% y/y in '26). See industry commentary (Whole Foods CEO on Bloomberg TV) indicating ongoing change in consumer behavior towards smaller, more frequent grocery shops. While unit economics of smaller baskets are inferior to large baskets, see focus shifting towards growing membership base and frequency on CART's platform.
Grocery pricing saw broad-based inflation across both 1p & 3p platforms, +2% Q/Q, with CART pricing largely at parity w/ UBER & DASH. Expect 3Q:26 call commentary to reiterate progress and importance of merchant adoption of price parity on CART marketplace. Our tracker indicates pricing across 3p marketplaces largely consistent, and the gap vs AMZN/WMT remains largely consistent vs 2Q and 1Q:26. See CART closing pricing gap vs competitors as critical to support durability of GTV growth.
Estimates, rating and price target
Increase '26 / '27 GTV estimates 40bps / 50bps to reflect strong industry tailwinds and robust 3p traffic trends. Raise '26 / '27 orders growth by 20bps / 40bps, with a more modest 10bps / 10bps increase to AOVs. '26 / '27 EBITDA estimates increase 90bps / 110bps. Remain Equal Weight and increase price target to $56 (prior $54) based on 9.0x (unchanged) 2027 EBITDA of $1.49B (prior $1.47B)