Evercore 旧评复盘 Ciena(CIEN)当日大涨：维持 Outperform 与 $550 目标价，无新增评级/基本面事实

Flash Note

Technology | IT Hardware & Networking
October 06, 2026

Ciena Corporation
CIEN | $389.69
Outperform | Target Price/Base Case: $550.00
Commentary

Amit Daryanani
415-800-0185
amit.daryanani@evercoreisi.com
Caden Dahl
212-653-9034
Caden.Dahl@evercoreisi.com

Irvin Liu
415-800-0183
irvin.liu@evercoreisi.com
Victor Santiago
212-653-9014
Victor.Santiago@evercoreISI.com

“TOP 3” Reasons Why CIEN is up ~10%
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW: CIEN is up almost 10% today, and we see three factors driving the move: 1) MRVL Analyst Day
CAGRs: MRVL (covered by Mark Lipacis) at their analyst day provided updates to their LT expectations, with interconnects growing
to ~$65B on a ~60-70% CAGR through 2030 and switching in storage reaching ~$85B on a ~40% CAGR. Both are notably much
higher than CIEN’s growth framework of ~30% provided at their investor forum last month. We think this is positive for CIEN’s inside
the DC play, which accounts for ~$11B of their projected TAM, and is minimally embedded into their FY29 target of ~$14B (less
than $500M). Additionally, we see this reinforcing the durability of the LT optical networking thesis and implies that networking
investment can become a larger part of AI spending as infrastructure scales. 2) NOK Commentary: Nokia CEO Justin Hotard
pushed back on overbuilding concerns last night on CNBC, saying customers would likely build data centers 2x faster if capacity
allowed and that the industry remains in the early days of the AI buildout. He identified memory and energy shortages among the
constraints, rather than suggesting that optical capacity alone is holding back deployment. We think this reinforces the durability of
the AI infrastructure spending cycle and the associated optical networking opportunity for CIEN, with supply constraints limiting the
pace of deployment rather than a lack of customer demand. 3) Cramer Highlights CIEN: Last night on Cramer’s Lightning Round,
he highlighted CIEN, saying “I think Ciena is very good” and “I happen to like optical.” We view this as an incremental visibility and
sentiment tailwind (notwithstanding the inverse Cramer FinTwit view!). Net/Net: We think both MRVL and NOK have provided
substantive positive read-throughs on the optical space and CIEN that highlights the underlying strength and durability in the
industry. We think CIEN can do $25+ EPS comfortably and on a low 20x P/E the stock should work into the mid/high $500 range.
Maintain OP and $550 target.

Please see the analyst certification and important disclosures on page 3 of this report. Evercore ISI and affiliates do and seek to

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© 2026. Evercore Group L.L.C. All rights reserved.

October 06, 2026

VALUATION METHODOLOGY
Our target price is based on a price/earnings multiple. We assess future earnings growth, operating margins, free cash flow
generation and returns on capital employed when determining whether a company is deserving of higher or lower multiples

RISKS
1) economic downturn limits capital investment, 2) optical networking growth disappoints, and 3) Hyperscale spending slows.

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TIMESTAMP
(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)

Time of dissemination: October 06 2026 11:53 AM ET

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The analyst, Amit Daryanani, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report attest to the following: (1) that the views and
opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers; and (2) that no part of the
research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report.

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Ratings Definitions
Current Ratings Definition
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Evercore lSI rating (as of 06 October 2026)

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Coverage Universe
Ratings
Buy
Hold
Sell
Coverage Suspended
Rating Suspended

Count
493
271
11
5
13

Pct.
62
34
1
1
2

Investment Banking Services I Past 12 Months
Ratings
Count
Pct.
Buy
88
18
Hold
20
7
Sell
0
0
Coverage Suspended
1
20
Rating Suspended
3
23

Issuer-Specific Disclosures 06 October 2026
Price Charts

Ratings Key
B

Buy

OP

Outperform

L

Long

CS

Coverage Suspended

H

Hold

IL

In Line

NP

No Position

RS

Rating Suspended

S

Sell

UP

Underperform

S

Short

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