Evercore 旧研报：Marvell 投资者日后上调目标价至433美元，催化已被消化且股价回吐

Technology | Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment
October 06, 2026

Marvell Technology Group Ltd
MRVL | $271.25
Outperform | Target Price/Base Case: $433.00 (from
$275.00)
Commentary

52-Week Range
Market Capitalization (B)
Enterprise Value (B)
Dividend Yield
Net Cash/Share
Shares Outstanding (M)

$70.69 - $329.88
$238
$239
0.1%
$1.79
877

Earnings Summary
2025E

2026E

2027E

Revenue (M)

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
CY

$1,895A
$2,006A
$2,075A
$2,219
$8,195A

$2,418A
$2,739A
$3,150
$3,729
$12,037

$3,973
$4,318
$4,652
$5,112
$18,055

Cons Revenue (M)

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
CY

$1,895A
$2,006A
$2,075A
$2,219
$8,195A

$2,418A
$2,739A
$3,151
$3,730
$12,037

$3,999
$4,307
$4,675
$5,097
$18,078

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
CY

$0.62A
$0.67A
$0.76A
$0.80
$2.85A

$0.80A
$0.94A
$1.10
$1.37
$4.21

$1.44
$1.59
$1.74
$1.95
$6.71

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
CY

$0.62A
$0.67A
$0.76A
$0.80
$2.85A

$0.80A
$0.94A
$1.10
$1.36
$4.20

$1.45
$1.57
$1.75
$1.95
$6.71

Consensus Adj
EPS

1 Year Price History

Source: FactSet

Haydn Potgieter
646-551-8516
Haydn.Potgieter@evercoreisi.com

Investor Day: $30 by '30

Company Statistics

EPS (Calendar)

Mark Lipacis
214-459-4007
Mark.Lipacis@evercoreisi.com

We Remain Buyers of MRVL post its analyst day where the company
increased its FY28 outlook and provided a FY31 target model that
translates to $30 of EPS power by 2030. Three things struck us about
the analyst day: 1) the company has invested $40bn in both M&A and
organic R&D to develop a broad and deep set of IP targeted to
delivering interconnect and processor solutions for emerging AI
workloads; 2) the combination of MRVL’s unique IP portfolio and
flexible business model has positioned it as a key supplier of merchant,
semi-custom and custom solutions to hyperscalers, each of which is
implementing different network and data center topologies; 3) At $12bn
of estimated CY26 revenues, MRVL is small enough that its visibility
into $70-$90bn in CY30 revenues positions it to deliver 7x revenue
growth over the next four years, making it one of the fastest growing
companies in our coverage universe. We increase our price target to
$433, which is based on 18x our CY30 EPS estimate of $32, discounted
back by 3 years.
Extreme Visibility. The company’s $70-$90bn target revenue model
for CY30 assumes Interconnect revs of $37.5bn (CAGR of 65%), Data
center revs of $77bn (CAGR of 66%), Switches and Storage of $10bn
(CAGR of 40%) and Comms and Other of $2.5bn.
Connectivity is the Bottleneck = Diversification. We agree with
MRVL’s contention that connectivity is the bottleneck in AI data centers
and view its connectivity portfolio as unique - so it is not a surprise to
us that the company’s XPU design win visibility continues to grow. The
company indicated that XPU-attach sockets could reach into the $1bn
to multi-billion revenue opportunities and introduced two new
categories of XPU attach on top of existing design wins in NIC, Memory
controllers and storage accelerators. MRVL made the case that it had
5 XPU Attach design wins, and that its custom business was not
dependent on a single socket.
Cycle and Valuation is the Rub. We’ve made the case that Semis
are in the late innings of the cycle, and believe that with decelerating
revenue growth at Semis generally and MRVL specifically, above
previous peak earnings, forecasted negative FCF for the largest CapEx
spenders, and early signs of inventory restocking, that P/E multiples will
compress. That said, we do believe those companies with particularly
strong earnings growth can outperform the market, and our PT of $433
assumes material multiple compression from 50x to 18x.
Mgmt. Upgraded FY28 and Established A Target Model For FY31.
Mgmt. raised financial FY28 revenue to $20B from the $18B provided
at previous earnings, implying 67% YoY growth with data center
revenue of $18B growing 80% vs. previous 60%; as was the case at
2Q27 earnings, the incremental $2B is driven by broad based strength
in connectivity with continued acceleration in scale-out optics, ramping
scale-up optics and switching. Additionally, management introduced a
FY31 revenue target of $70-90B ($80B midpoint), translating to >$30 of
non-GAAP EPS at the midpoint (“30%/30%”).

Please see the analyst certification and important disclosures on page 9 of this report. Evercore ISI and affiliates do and seek to

do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect
the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
© 2026. Evercore Group L.L.C. All rights reserved.

October 06, 2026

Figure 1: Updated FY28 Target Model

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

Figure 2: FY31 Target Model
Interconnect
Switching and storage
Custom
Total Data Center

FY26
MRVL
3,175
1,300
1,625
$6,100

Comms and other

$2,094

$2,500

Maintain position

Total Revenues

$8,195

$80,000

Implies 58s% 5-Year CAGR

Gross Margin (%)

59.5%

57.5%

Rang mix dependent with Custom dilutive

OpEx
Operating Income
Operating Margin (%)

1,981
$2,891
35.3%

10,000
$36,000
45.0%

+6% on previous target

Taxes
Tax Rate (%)

274
10%

5400
15%

Assume 13%

Net Income
Shares
EPS

$2,466
866
$2.85

$30,600
951
$32.16

Assume growth at at historical level
Implies ~62% 5yr CAGR

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

2

Implied Revenue @ MP
FY31 ($bn)
37,500
10,000
30,000
$77,500

EVR ISI
Commentary
Leadership in scale-out / across; Growing scale-up
Growing scale-out; New scale-up opportunity
Ramping current XPU wins; Rapid growth in XPU attach

October 06, 2026

Figure 3: MRVL P/E vs Y/Y Growth

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

Figure 4: P/E vs NTM EPS

MRVL NTM Earnings

x70

6

x60

5

x50

4
3

x30
2

x20
x10

1

x0

0

Jan-13
Aug-13
Apr-14
Dec-14
Aug-15
Apr-16
Nov-16
Jul-17
Mar-18
Nov-18
Jul-19
Mar-20
Oct-20
Jun-21
Feb-22
Oct-22
Jun-23
Jan-24
Sep-24
May-25
Jan-26
Sep-26

MRVL NTM P/E

x40

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

3

MRVL NTM Earnings ($bn)

MRVL NTM PE

October 06, 2026

Figure 5: P/E vs MRVL/SPX

9

180

8

160

7

140

6

120

5

100

4

80

3

60

Jan-26

Jan-25

Jan-24

Jan-23

Jan-22

Jan-21

Jan-17

Jan-20

0

Jan-19

0

Jan-18

1

Jan-16

20

Jan-15

2

Jan-14

40

MRVL Relative Performance vs. SP500
Indexed to Jan 2013

MRVL / SPX Rel Performance

200

Jan-13

MRVL NTM P/E

MRVL NTM PE

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

Figure 6: Updated Price Target Based On Base Case CY30E Adj. EPS

Income Statement
Revenue, $mn

CY25
EVR ISI
8,195

Bear
20,792
20%

51%

40%

54%

58%

61%

59%
2,891
35%
(151)

57%
9,767
47%
(175)

55%
11,898
42%
(175)

53%
18,410
47%
(175)

56%
33,971
44%
(175)

57%
36,000
45%
(175)

59%
45,532
46%
(175)

% growth YY

GM, %
Op Income, $mn
OpM, %
Int Exp & Other, $mn

3yrs (CY28E)
Base
Bull
28,297
38,890

Bear
70,000

5yrs (CY30E)
Base
Bull
80,000
90,000

Tax Rate, %

10%

13%

13%

13%

15%

15%

15%

Net Income, $mn
Share Count, mn
EPS
NTM PE
PT, 3/5yrs out

2,466
866
$2.85

8,345
942
$8.86
25x
$221

10,199
942
$10.83
28x
$303

15,865
942
$16.84
30x
$505

28,726
951
$30.19
18x
$543

30,451
951
$32.01
18x
$576

38,554
951
$40.52
18x
$729

Disc factor (10% 1/3yrs)

0.91

0.91

0.91

0.75

0.75

0.75

PT

$201

$275

$459

$408

$433

$548

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

4

October 06, 2026

MRVL Income Statement
Figure 7: MRVL Income Statement

MRVL
$USD Millions
Company Model, Income Statement
(Non-GAAP Ex-SBC)
Revenue
Q/Q
Y/Y
COGS
Gross Profit
Gross Margin
Incremental GM

FY26
Oct-25
3Q

Apr-25
1Q

Jul-25
2Q

$1,895
4%
63%
762
$1,134
59.8%
53.3%

$2,006
6%
58%
815
$1,191
59.4%
52.3%

407
80
486

FY27
Oct-26
3QE

Jan-26
4Q

Apr-26
1Q

Jul-26
2Q

$2,075
3%
37%
836
$1,238
59.7%
68.3%

$2,219
7%
22%
910
$1,309
59.0%
49.0%

$2,418
9%
28%
994
$1,424
58.9%
57.8%

$2,739
13%
37%
1,125
$1,614
58.9%
59.2%

415
78
493

409
76
485

435
82
517

486
91
577

647
34.2%
44.5%

698.8
34.8%
46.5%

753.1
36.3%
79.4%

792
35.7%
26.8%

Interest Income (Expense)
Income Before Taxes

(47)
600

(48)
651

(25)
728

Provision for Income Taxes (gain)
Non-GAAP Net Income

60
$540

65
$586

EPS, Non-GAAP
SBC - EPS Impact
EPS, Non-GAAP Ex-SBC
EPS, GAAP

$0.45
$0.16
$0.62
$0.20

Non-GAAP Diluted Shares

FY28
Oct-27
3QE

Jan-27
4QE

Apr-27
1QE

Jul-27
2QE

$3,150
15%
52%
1,323
$1,827
58.0%
51.9%

$3,729
18%
68%
1,566
$2,163
58.0%
58.0%

$3,973
7%
64%
1,669
$2,304
58.0%
58.0%

$4,318
9%
58%
1,813
$2,504
58.0%
58.0%

522
89
611

560
95
655

604
103
707

634
108
741

847
35.0%
27.7%

1,003.2
36.6%
48.6%

1,172
37.2%
41.1%

1,456
39.0%
49.0%

(31)
761

(40)
807

(30)
973

(36)
1,136

73
$655

76
$685

89
$718

107
$866

$0.49
$0.18
$0.67
$0.22

$0.58
$0.18
$0.76
$2.20

$0.63
$0.17
$0.80
$0.46

$0.57
$0.23
$0.80
$0.04

875.6

870.4

863.7

856.2

Dividend

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

Percent of Sales
R&D
SG&A
Tax Rate
Net Income

21.4%
4.2%
10.0%
28.5%

20.7%
3.9%
10.0%
29.2%

19.7%
3.6%
10.0%
31.6%

R&D
SG&A
Total Opex
Operating Income
Operating Margin
Incremental OM

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

5

Jan-28
4QE

FY25
CY24

FY26
CY25

FY27E
CY26E

FY28E
CY27E

$4,652
8%
48%
1,954
$2,698
58.0%
58.0%

$5,112
10%
37%
2,147
$2,965
58.0%
58.0%

$5,767

$8,195

$12,037

$18,055

5%
$2,247
$3,521
61.0%
57.6%

42%
$3,323
$4,872
59.5%
55.7%

47%
$5,009
$7,028
58.4%
58.4%

50%
$7,583
$10,472
58.0%
58.0%

664
113
777

696
118
815

730
124
854

$1,555
$301
$1,856

$1,666
$315
$1,981

$2,173
$377
$2,550

$2,724
$463
$3,188

1,563
39.3%
44.0%

1,727
40.0%
47.6%

1,884
40.5%
46.8%

2,111
41.3%
49.4%

1,664.7
28.9%
25%

2,891.0
35.3%
51%

4,478.0
37.2%
37%

7,284.4
40.3%
40%

(38)
1,418

(40)
1,523

(40)
1,687

(40)
1,844

(40)
2,071

($183.7)
1,481.0

($151.4)
2,739.6

($144.4)
4,333.6

($160.0)
7,124.4

125
$1,011

156
$1,262

198
$1,325

219
$1,468

240
$1,604

269
$1,802

$103.7
$1,377.3

$274.0
$2,465.6

$476.7
$3,856.9

$926.2
$6,198.2

$0.59
$0.35
$0.94
$0.33

$0.76
$0.34
$1.10
$0.53

$1.03
$0.34
$1.37
$0.82

$1.10
$0.34
$1.44
$0.89

$1.25
$0.34
$1.59
$1.04

$1.40
$0.34
$1.74
$1.18

$1.61
$0.34
$1.95
$1.38

$0.89
$0.68
$1.57
($1.02)

$2.16
$0.68
$2.85
$3.07

$2.96
$1.26
$4.21
$1.73

$5.37
$1.34
$6.71
$4.49

893.3

921.2

921.0

921.0

922.0

923.0

924.0

925.0

876.8

866.5

914.1

923.5

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

$0.06

$0.24

$0.24

$0.24

$0.24

19.6%
3.7%
10.0%
30.9%

20.1%
3.7%
11.0%
29.7%

19.1%
3.2%
11.0%
31.6%

17.8%
3.0%
11.0%
32.1%

16.2%
2.8%
11.0%
33.8%

15.9%
2.7%
13.0%
33.3%

15.4%
2.6%
13.0%
34.0%

15.0%
2.5%
13.0%
34.5%

14.3%
2.4%
13.0%
35.2%

27.0%
5.2%
7.0%
23.9%

20.3%
3.8%
10.0%
30.1%

18.0%
3.1%
11.0%
32.0%

15.1%
2.6%
13.0%
34.3%

October 06, 2026

MRVL Balance Sheet
Figure 8: MRVL Balance Sheet
MRVL
$USD Millions
Company Model, Balance Sheet
Assets
Current Assets
Cash and Cash Equivalents
Short-term Investments
Accounts Receivable, Net
Inventories
Prepaid Expense and Other
Assets held for sale
Total Current Assets
Non Current Assets
Property, Plant, and Equipment at Cost
Accumulated D&A
Net Property, Plant, and Equipment
Long-term Investments
Goodwill
Acquisition-related Intangibles, Net
Other Assets
Total Assets

Apr-25
1Q

Jul-25
2Q

$948
$0
$1,028
$1,030
$114
$3,120

$886
$0
$1,144
$1,071
$148
$588
$3,838

$1,224
$0
$1,452
$1,052
$190
$596
$4,513

$791

$775

$11,587
$2,711
$1,595
$19,803

$622
$973
$0
$0
$0

FY27
Oct-26
3QE

Jan-26
4Q

Apr-26
1Q

Jul-26
2Q

$2,715
$0
$1,546
$1,015
$238

$2,639
$0
$2,187
$1,388
$247

$3,844
$0
$1,872
$1,401
$348

$3,933
$0
$2,218
$1,361
$408

$5,513

$6,461

$7,464

$795

$855

$935

$11,062
$2,451
$1,898
$20,024

$11,062
$2,207
$2,010
$20,586

$11,062
$1,978
$2,171
$21,579

$611
$1,079
$0
$0
$0
$499
$211
$2,399

$3,968
$0
$0
$797
$0
$0
$7,165

FY28
Oct-27
3QE

Jan-27
4QE

Apr-27
1QE

Jul-27
2QE

Jan-28 FY22 FY25
4QE CY21 CY24

FY26
CY25

FY27E
CY26E

FY28E
CY27E

$4,105
$0
$2,551
$1,600
$741

$4,475
$0
$3,020
$1,894
$1,074

$4,755
$0
$3,218
$2,018
$1,144

$5,051
$0
$3,497
$2,193
$1,243

$5,383
$0
$3,768
$2,363
$1,340

$5,739
$0
$4,140
$2,596
$1,472

$948
$0
$1,028
$1,030
$114

$2,639
$0
$2,187
$1,388
$247

$4,475
$0
$3,020
$1,894
$1,074

$5,739
$0
$4,140
$2,596
$1,472

$7,919

$8,996

$10,463

$11,135

$11,984

$12,853

$13,947

$3,120

$6,461

$10,463

$13,947

$973

$1,071

$1,105

$1,138

$1,172

$1,205

$1,239

$1,273

$13,874
$1,917
$2,344
$29,736

$13,874
$1,702
$2,344
$30,226

$13,874
$1,487
$2,344
$30,894

$13,874
$1,272
$2,344
$31,581

$13,874
$0
$2,344
$31,437

$791
$0
$11,587
$2,711
$1,595
$19,803

$935
$0
$11,062
$1,755
$2,073
$22,285

$1,138
$0
$13,874
$1,917
$2,344
$29,736

$1,273
$0
$13,874
$0
$2,344
$31,437

$11,062
$1,755
$2,073
$22,285

$13,884
$2,562
$2,063
$26,945

$13,874
$2,347
$2,344
$27,555

$13,874
$2,132
$2,344
$28,450

$634
$1,351
$0
$0
$0
$500
$252
$2,737

$1,074
$1,337
$0
$0
$0
$500
$310
$3,221

$710
$1,336
$0
$0
$0
$0
$232
$2,277

$798
$1,426
$0
$0
$0
$0
$276
$2,500

$938
$1,640
$0
$0
$0

$1,111
$1,941
$0
$0
$0

$1,183
$2,068
$0
$0
$0

$1,286
$2,247
$0
$0
$0

$1,385
$2,422
$0
$0
$0

$1,522
$2,661
$0
$0
$0

$622
$973
$0
$0
$0

$1,074
$1,337
$0
$0
$0

$1,111
$1,941
$0
$0
$0

$1,183
$2,068
$0
$0
$0

$276
$2,854

$276
$3,327

$276
$3,527

$276
$3,809

$276
$4,083

$276
$4,459

$432
$2,027

$310
$2,721

$276
$3,327

$276
$3,527

Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Accrued Liabilities & Employee Compensation
Deferred Revenue
Income Taxes Payable
Current Portion of Capital Lease Obligations
Short-term debt
Other Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities

$432
$2,027

$563
$940
$0
$0
$0
$1,255
$184
$2,941

Non Current Liabilities
Long-term Debt
Deferred Tax Liabilities
Long-term Income Taxes Payable
Other Long-term Liabilities
Commitments and Contingencies
Temporary Equity
Total Liabilities

$3,934
$0
$0
$816
$0
$0
$6,778

$2,977
($4)
$0
$792
$0
$0
$6,707

$3,969
$0
$0
$816
$0
$0
$7,522

$3,971
$0
$0
$786
$0
$0
$7,977

$4,961
$0
$0
$1,491
$0
$0
$8,729

$4,963
$0
$0
$1,561
$0
$0
$9,023

$4,963
$0
$0
$1,561
$0
$0
$9,377

$4,963
$0
$0
$1,561
$0
$0
$9,851

$4,963
$0
$0
$1,561
$0
$0
$10,051

$4,963
$0
$0
$1,561
$0
$0
$10,332

$4,963
$0
$0
$1,561
$0
$0
$10,606

$4,963
$0
$0
$1,561
$0
$0
$10,982

$3,934
$0
$0
$816
$0
$0
$6,778

$3,971
$0
$0
$786
$0
$0
$7,477

$4,963
$0
$0
$1,561
$0
$0
$9,851

$4,963
$0
$0
$1,561
$0
$0
$10,051

Shareholders' Equity
Common Stock
Accumulated Other Income
Additional Paid In Capital
Retained Earnings (Accumulated Deficit)
Total Stockholders' Equity
Total Liabilities, Temporary Equity & Stockholders' Equity

$2
$2
$2
$2
$0
$0
$0
$0
$14,534 $14,294 $14,259 $13,044
($1,109)
($983)
($840) $1,011
$13,427 $13,313 $13,422 $14,057
$20,205 $20,020 $20,586 $21,579

$2
$0
$12,951
$1,356
$14,309
$22,286

$2
$0
$16,878
$1,337
$18,216
$26,945

$2
$0
$16,939
$1,591
$18,532
$27,555

$2
$0
$17,049
$2,022
$19,073
$28,451

$2
$0
$17,160
$2,724
$19,885
$29,736

$2
$0
$16,686
$3,488
$20,176
$30,226

$2
$0
$16,164
$4,396
$20,561
$30,894

$2
$0
$15,534
$5,439
$20,975
$31,582

$2
$0
$14,830
$6,680
$21,512
$32,494

$2
$2
$0
$0
$14,534 $12,951
($1,109) $1,356
$13,427 $14,309
$20,205 $21,786

$2
$0
$17,160
$2,724
$19,885
$29,736

$2
$0
$16,686
$3,488
$20,176
$30,226

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

6

FY26
Oct-25
3Q

Jan-25
4Q

October 06, 2026

MRVL Cash Flow Statement
Figure 9: MRVL Cash Flow Statement

MRVL
$USD Millions
Company Model, Cash Flows
Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net Income
SBC
Depreciation
Amortization
Other
Net gain on sale of available for sale securities
Amortization of debt discounts
Provision for deferred income taxes, other
Change in assets and liabilities:
Accounts Receivable, net
Inventories
Prepaid Expenses & other Current Assets
Other assets
Accounts Payable
Deferred Revenue
Accrued Liabilities and Others
Net cash provided by operating activities
Cash Flows From Investing Activities
PP&E
Acquisition Costs
Purchases of IP licenses & Intangible Assets
Other
Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities

Jul-25
2Q

Oct-25
3Q

Jan-26
4Q

Apr-26
1Q

Jul-26
2Q

$178
$142
$84
$246
$30

$195
$154
$84
$244
$32

$1,901
$152
$87
$229
($1,819)

$396
$143
$93
$224
$69

$35
$208
$95
$225
$288

$308
$326
$93
$215
$112

($4)
($343)
($116)
($70)
$24
$0
($37)
($118)
($26)
$333

($246)
($308)
$15
($118)
$0
($31)
$0
$194
$462

$32
($95)
$35
($190)
$0
($11)
$0
$293
$582

($551)
($640)
$41
($371)
$0
$378
$0
$40
$374

($212)
$315
($11)
($29)
$0
($356)
$0
($131)
$639

($119)

($48)

($114)

($1)
$26
($94)

($1)
($29)
($77)

($74)
$2,479
($1)
($13)
$2,391

($1)
($7)
($122)

($156)
($1,271)
($1)
$6
($1,421)

FY28
Oct-27
3QE

Jan-27
4QE

Apr-27
1QE

Jul-27
2QE

Jan-28
4QE

FY25
CY24

FY26
CY25

FY27E
CY26E

FY28E
CY27E

$487
$310
$93
$215

$757
$310
$93
$215

$820
$310
$93
$215

$963
$310
$93
$215

$1,099
$310
$93
$215

$1,296
$310
$93
$215

($271)
($279)
($175)
($99)
$0
$103
$0
$179
$1,310

($263)
($271)
($170)
($96)
$0
$100
$0
$174
$1,454

($362)
($372)
($233)
($132)
$0
$137
$0
$239
$1,553

($885)
$597
$304
$1,053
$505
$0
$0
($22)
$129
$93
($230)
$3
$0
$182
$0
$81
$1,681

$2,670
$591
$349
$942
($1,688)
$0
$0
($4)
($1,108)
($1,158)
$22
($654)
$0
$299
($118)
$500
$1,751

$1,586
$1,154
$375
$870
$400
$0
$0
$0
($1,834)
($833)
($496)
($1,000)
$0
($21)
$0
$517
$2,551

$4,178
$1,241
$372
$860
$0
$0
$0
$0
($1,088)
($1,120)
($702)
($398)
$0
$412
$0
$720
$5,562

($449)
($347)
$48
($305)
$0
$22
$0
$133
$606

($551)
($333)
($239)
($333)
$0
$140
$0
$214
$554

($622)
($469)
($294)
($333)
$0
$172
$0
$301
$753

($192)
($198)
($124)
($70)
$0
$73
$0
$127
$1,246

($127)

($127)

($127)

($127)

($127)

($127)

($127)

($127)

($127)

($127)

($127)

($285)
($1)
($7)
($9)
($301)

($354)
$2,479
($5)
($22)
$2,098

($536)
($1,271)
($5)
$7
($1,805)

($507)
$0
$0
$0
($507)

($5)
$1
($130)

($127)

($127)

$0
$408
$0
($163)
($205)
($2,040)
($158)
($2,158)

$2,000
$499
$0
($365)
($218)
($800)
($25)
$1,091

$0
$0
$0
$0
($222)
($3,570)
$0
($3,792)

$948
$1,690
$2,639

$2,639
$1,837
$4,476

$4,476
$1,264
$5,739

Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Proceeds from the issuance of stock
Proceed from debt
Principal payments on capital lease and debt obligations
Excess tax benefits from stock-based compensation
Dividends paid
Repurchase of common stock
Other
Net cash used in financing activities

$0
$167

$0
$241

$0

$0

$2,000
$499

($50)
($52)
($340)
($26)
($301)

($0)
($52)
($200)
($35)
($46)

($63)
($51)
($1,300)
($70)
($1,483)

($50)
($51)
($200)
($26)
($327)

($227)
($54)
($200)
($31)
$1,987

($138)
($54)
($200)
$6
($386)

($55)
($200)

($55)
($200)

($55)
($784)

($55)
($832)

($55)
($940)

($56)
($1,014)

($255)

($255)

($840)

($887)

($995)

($1,070)

$0
($109)
$0
($190)
($208)
($725)
($151)
($1,383)

Cash and equivalents at beginning of period
Net increase (decrease) in cash and equivalents
Cash and equivalents at end of period

$948
($62)
$886

$886
$339
$1,224

$1,224
$1,490
$2,714

$2,714
($76)
$2,639

$2,639
$1,205
$3,844

$3,844
$89
$3,933

$3,933
$172
$4,105

$4,105
$371
$4,475

$4,475
$280
$4,755

$4,755
$296
$5,051

$5,051
$332
$5,383

$5,383
$357
$5,739

$951
($3)
$948

FCF
FCF Per Share

$214
$0.38

$414
$0.53

$509
$0.67

$259
$0.44

$483
$0.71

$479
$0.65

$427
$0.60

$626
$0.82

$1,119
$1.35

$1,183
$1.42

$1,327
$1.57

$1,426
$1.68

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

7

FY27
Oct-26
3QE

Apr-25
1Q

$1,396.6 $1,396.4 $2,015.1 $5,055.5
$1.59
$1.61
$2.20
$5.47

October 06, 2026

VALUATION METHODOLOGY
Our $433 PT assumes 18x our 2030 EPS base case of $32 discounted back 3yr by a 10% hurdle rate

RISKS
Risks from prolonged inventory correction/compression of capex from enterprises or lumpiness of custom accelerators revenues.

COMPANIES UNDER COVERAGE BY AUTHOR
Symbol
ADI
ALAB
ALGM
AMAT
AMD
ARM
ASML-NL
AVGO
CRDO
GFS
INTC
LRCX
MCHP
MRVL
MTSI
NVDA
NXPI
ON
PI
QBTS
QCOM
QNT
RMBS
SPCX
TXN

8

Company
Rating
Analog Devices, Inc.
Outperform
Astera Labs, Inc
Outperform
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc
Outperform
Applied Materials, Inc.
Outperform
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc
Outperform
Arm Holdings plc
Outperform
ASML Holding NV
Outperform
Broadcom Inc.
Outperform
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Outperform
GlobalFoundries Inc
Outperform
Intel Corporation
Outperform
Lam Research Corporation
Outperform
Microchip Technology Inc
Outperform
Marvell Technology Group Ltd
Outperform
MACOM Technology Solutions
Holdings, Inc
Outperform
NVIDIA Corp.
Outperform
NXP Semiconductors NV
Outperform
ON Semiconductor Corp
Outperform
Impinj, Inc.
In Line
D-Wave Quantum Inc.
Outperform
QUALCOMM Inc.
In Line
Quantinuum Inc.
Outperform
Rambus Inc
Outperform
Space Exploration Technologies
Corp
Outperform
Texas Instruments Inc.
Outperform

Price
(2026-06-10)
$419.10
$362.34
$38.46
$542.28
$631.75
$302.90
€1656.20
$362.51
$212.48
$48.56
$116.19
$345.80
$81.49
$271.25

Evercore ISI
Target
$462.00
$452.00
$53.00
$700.00
$620.00
$326.00
€2000.00
$578.00
$292.00
$85.00
$133.00
$355.00
$117.00
$433.00

$328.30
$238.90
$241.97
$85.93
$185.19
$15.64
$180.79
$45.53
$110.30

$475.00
$465.00
$320.00
$137.00
$144.00
$37.00
$159.00
$98.00
$160.00

$171.09
$294.90

$230.00
$330.00

October 06, 2026

TIMESTAMP
(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)
Time of dissemination: October 06 2026 3:34 PM ET

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The analyst, Mark Lipacis, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report attest to the following: (1) that the views and opinions
rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers; and (2) that no part of the research
analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report is approved and/or distributed by Evercore Group L.L.C. ("Evercore Group"), a U.S. licensed broker-dealer regulated by the Financial
Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA"), and Evercore ISI International Limited ("lSI UK''), which is authorised and regulated in the United
Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority. The institutional sales, trading and research businesses of Evercore Group and lSI UK collectively
operate under the global marketing brand name Evercore lSI ("Evercore lSI"). Both Evercore Group and lSI UK are subsidiaries of Evercore Inc.
("Evercore"). The trademarks, logos and service marks shown on this report are registered trademarks of Evercore.
The analysts and associates responsible for preparing this report receive compensation based on various factors, including Evercore’s Partners'
total revenues, a portion of which is generated by affiliated investment banking transactions. Evercore lSI seeks to update its research as
appropriate, but various regulations may prevent this from happening in certain instances. Aside from certain industry reports published on a
periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment.
Evercore lSI generally prohibits analysts, associates and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities of any
company in the analyst's area of coverage. Any exception to this policy requires specific approval by a member of our Compliance Department.
Such ownership is subject to compliance with applicable regulations and disclosure. Evercore lSI also prohibits analysts, associates and
members of their households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company that the analyst covers.
This report may include a Tactical Call, which describes a near-term event or catalyst affecting the subject company or the market overall and
which is expected to have a short-term price impact on the equity shares of the subject company. This Tactical Call is separate from the analyst's
long-term recommendation (Outperform, In Line or Underperform) that reflects a stock's forward 12-month expected return, is not a formal rating
and may differ from the target prices and recommendations reflected in the analyst's long-term view.
Applicable current disclosures regarding the subject companies covered in this report are available at the offices of Evercore ISI: 55
East 52nd Street, New York, NY 10055, and at the following site: https://evercoreisi.mediasterling.com/disclosure.
Evercore and its affiliates, and I or their respective directors, officers, members and employees, may have, or have had, interests or qualified
holdings on issuers mentioned in this report. Evercore and its affiliates may have, or have had, business relationships with the companies
mentioned in this report.
Additional information on securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report is available upon request.

Ratings Definitions
Current Ratings Definition
Evercore lSI's recommendations are based on a stock's total forecasted return over the next 12 months. Total forecasted return is equal to the
expected percentage price return plus gross dividend yield. We divide our stocks under coverage into three primary ratings categories, with the
following return guidelines:
Outperform- the total forecasted return is expected to be greater than the expected total return of the analyst's coverage sector.
In Line- the total forecasted return is expected to be in line with the expected total return of the analyst's coverage sector.
Underperform- the total forecasted return is expected to be less than the expected total return of the analyst's coverage sector.
Coverage Suspended- the rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Evercore lSI policy when Evercore is acting in an advisory
capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances.*
Rating Suspended- Evercore lSI has suspended the rating and target price for this stock because there is not sufficient fundamental basis for
determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, a rating or target price. The previous rating and target price, if
any, are no longer in effect for this company and should not be relied upon.*
*Prior to October 10, 2015, the "Coverage Suspended" and "Rating Suspended" categories were included in the category "Suspended."
FlNRA requires that members who use a ratings system with terms other than "Buy," "Hold/Neutral" and "Sell" to equate their own
ratings to these categories. For this purpose, and in the Evercore lSI ratings distribution below, our Outperform, In Line, and
Underperform ratings can be equated to Buy, Hold and Sell, respectively.

Evercore lSI rating (as of 10/06/2026)

9

October 06, 2026

Coverage Universe
Ratings
Buy
Hold
Sell
Coverage Suspended
Rating Suspended

Count
493
271
11
5
13

Pct.
62
34
1
1
2

Investment Banking Services I Past 12 Months
Ratings
Count
Pct.
Buy
88
18
Hold
20
7
Sell
0
0
Coverage Suspended
1
20
Rating Suspended
3
23

Issuer-Specific Disclosures (as of October 06, 2026)
Price Charts

Ratings Key
B

Buy

OP

Outperform

L

Long

CS

Coverage Suspended

H

Hold

IL

In Line

NP

No Position

RS

Rating Suspended

S

Sell

UP

Underperform

S

Short

GENERAL DISCLOSURES
This report is approved and/or distributed by Evercore Group L.L.C. (“Evercore Group”), a U.S. licensed broker-dealer regulated by the Financial
Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and by International Strategy & Investment Group (UK) Limited (“ISI UK”), which is authorized and
regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority. The institutional sales, trading and research businesses of Evercore Group
and ISI UK collectively operate under the global marketing brand name Evercore ISI ("Evercore ISI"). Both Evercore Group and ISI UK are
subsidiaries of Evercore Inc. ("Evercore"). The trademarks, logos and service marks shown on this report are registered trademarks of Evercore
Inc.
This report is provided for informational purposes only and subject to additional restrictions contained in this disclosure. It is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any
jurisdiction. The information and opinions in this report were prepared by employees of affiliates of Evercore. The information herein is believed
by Evercore ISI to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but Evercore ISI makes no representation as to
the accuracy or completeness of such information.
Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. They do not
necessarily reflect the opinions of Evercore or its affiliates and are subject to change without notice. In addition, opinions, estimates and
projections in this report may differ from or be contrary to those expressed by other business areas or groups of Evercore and its affiliates.
Any links to third-party websites included in this report are not maintained, controlled or operated by Evercore ISI. Evercore ISI does not provide
the products or services available through such websites and makes no representation regarding, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the
content of any third-party website or any linked content contained in a third-party website. Content contained on such third-party websites is not
part of this report and is not incorporated by reference herein. The inclusion of any link does not imply any endorsement of, or affiliation with, any
applicable third party by Evercore ISI. Access to any third-party website is at the reader's own risk. The applicable terms of use and privacy
policies of any third-party website should be reviewed before any personal information is submitted. Evercore ISI accepts no responsibility or
liability for the terms of use, privacy policies or content of any third-party website.

10

October 06, 2026

Evercore ISI has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated
herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Facts and views in
Evercore ISI research reports and notes have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other Evercore
affiliates or business areas, including investment banking personnel. Evercore ISI salespeople, traders and other professionals may provide oral
or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research.
Our asset management affiliates and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or
views expressed in this research.
Evercore ISI does not provide individually tailored investment advice in research reports. The financial instruments discussed in this report are not
suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions using their own independent advisors as they believe necessary
and based upon their specific financial situations and investment objectives. This report has been prepared without regard to the particular
investment strategies or financial, tax or other personal circumstances of the recipient. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal,
accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to the recipient’s individual circumstances,
or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to the recipient. None of Evercore Group or its affiliates will treat any recipient of this report
as its customer by virtue of the recipient having received this report.
Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this report, or recommended or offered by Evercore ISI, are not insured by the Federal
Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits of or other obligations of any insured depository institution. If a financial instrument is
denominated in a currency other than an investor’s currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the price or value of, or the
income derived from the financial instrument, and such investor effectively assumes such currency risk. In addition, income from an investment
may fluctuate and the price or value of financial instruments described in this report, either directly or indirectly, may rise or fall. Estimates of
future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future
performance.
Please note that this report was prepared for and distributed by Evercore ISI to its institutional investor and market professional customers.
Recipients who are not institutional investor or market professional customers of Evercore ISI should seek the advice of their independent
financial advisor before considering information in this report in connection with any investment decision, or for a necessary explanation of its
contents.
Electronic research is simultaneously distributed to all clients. This report is provided to Evercore ISI clients only and may not be, in whole or in
part, or in any form or manner (i) copied, forwarded, distributed, shared, or made available to third parties, including as input to, or in connection
with, any artificial intelligence or machine learning model; (ii) modified or otherwise used to create derivative works; or (iv) used to train or
otherwise develop a generative artificial intelligence or machine learning model, without the express written consent of Evercore ISI. Receipt and
review of this research report constitutes your agreement with the aforementioned limitations in use.
This report is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such
distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Evercore Group or its affiliates to any
registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this report is being distributed by a financial institution other than Evercore ISI or its
affiliates, that financial institution is solely responsible for such distribution and for compliance with the laws, rules and regulations of any
jurisdiction where this report is distributed. Clients of that financial institution should contact that institution to effect any transaction in the
securities mentioned in this report or if such clients require further information. This report does not constitute investment advice by Evercore ISI
to the clients of the distributing financial institution, and neither Evercore ISI nor its affiliates, nor their respective officers, directors or employees,
accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from their use of this report or its content.
Evercore is not authorized to act as a financial entity, securities intermediary, investment advisor or as any other regulated entity under Mexican
law, and no actions, applications or filings have been undertaken in Mexico, whether before the National Banking and Securities Commission
(Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores “CNBV”) or any other authority, in order for Evercore to carry out activities or render services that
would otherwise require a license, registration or any other authorization for such purposes; neither is it regulated by the CNBV or any other
Mexican authority. This document, nor its content, constitutes an offer, invitation or request to purchase or subscribe for securities or other
instruments or to make or cancel investments, nor may it serve as the basis for any contract, commitment or decision of any kind.
For persons in the UK: In making this report available, Evercore makes no recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in any securities or
investments whatsoever and you should neither rely or act upon, directly or indirectly, any of the information contained in this report in respect of
any such investment activity. This report is being directed at or distributed to, (a) persons who fall within the definition of Investment Professionals
(set out in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”)); (b) persons falling within
the definition of high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc. (set out in Article 49(2) of the Order); (c) other persons to whom it
may otherwise lawfully be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This report must not be acted on or
relied on by persons who are not relevant persons.
For persons in Switzerland: The distribution of these materials to persons or entities in Switzerland is not intended to, and does not, constitute a
financial service under the Swiss Financial Services Act (FinSA). In particular, the distribution of these materials does not constitute the provision
of personal recommendations on transactions with financial instruments (investment advice) within the meaning of Article 3(c)(4) of FinSA.
For persons in Australia: Evercore does not have an Australian Financial Services License ("AFSL"). This report is only to be distributed to
persons who fall within the definition of "wholesale" investors under section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This report must not be
acted on or relied on by persons who are not wholesale investors. Evercore relies on the relief provided under ASIC Corporations (Foreign
Financial Services Providers—Limited Connection) Instrument 2017/182 to provide this report to wholesale investors in Australia without an
AFSL.
For persons in New Zealand: This material has been prepared by Evercore Group L.L.C. for distribution in New Zealand to financial advisors and
wholesale clients only and has not been prepared for use by retail clients (as those terms are defined in the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013
(‘FMCA’)). Evercore Group L.L.C. is not, and is not required to be, registered or licensed under the FMCA, and unless otherwise stated any
financial products referred to in this material are generally only available in New Zealand for issue to those satisfying the wholesale investor
criteria in the FMCA.

11

October 06, 2026

Applicable current disclosures regarding the subject companies covered in this report are available at the offices of Evercore ISI: 55
East 52nd Street, New York, NY 10055, and at the following site: https://evercoreisi.mediasterling.com/disclosure.
In compliance with the European Securities and Markets Authority's Market Abuse Regulation, a list of all Evercore ISI recommendations
disseminated in the preceding 12 months for the subject companies herein, may be found at the following site:
https://evercoreisi.mediasterling.com/disclosure.
© 2026. Evercore Group L.L.C. All rights reserved.

12