杰富瑞重申 Vistra（VST.US）买入评级但将目标价由189美元下调至170美元，属卖方估值更新而非新增基本面催化

Harvesting Power Cash Flows While They Shine: Buy on Diverse & Durable Profile
Reiterate Buy. A ~14% FY29 FCF yield ex-buybacks (7.0x EV / EBITDA) VST offers an attractive entry point with ~20% of EBITDA contracted and +20% upside to our PT without speculative data centers in the valuation. VST is down ~30% since Sept 2025, despite announcing nuclear data center contracts and the reasonably priced Cogentrix deal. Ongoing PJM reforms are an overhang, but we have cut our capacity assumptions further. PJM forwards drive 2029-30 upside.
Vistra stock price keeps going down while power prices move up. VST trades at ~14% 2028/2029 FCF yield ex-unannounced data centers and buybacks, and reflective of ERCOT/PJM forward pricing. The FCF yield rises to ~17% with buybacks, approaching the psychological 20% threshold. VST has ~20% of EBITDA contracted via nuclear PPAs. While significant uncertainty remains around PJM in the long-term, there is solid cash flow viability through at least 2030 and no step-downs beyond. VST’s valuation is reasonable at ~6.0x EV/EBITDA ~80% uncontracted EBITDA and ~12x on ~17% contracted EBITDA. VST is not pricing upside from future data center transactions: the current base is still attractive.
Fundamentals remain strong
2029-2030 adj. EBITDA -up ~$650/$550Mn (+7%/+8%) vs. our last update at ~$10Bn, primarily due to updated MtM for materially higher prices in PJM since July. 2028-2030 adjusted EBITDA estimates above the Street by 4%, 8%, 2% respectively. ~$9.5Bn average adjusted EBITDA supports ~$6Bn of FCFbG annually in 2028-2030 (~40% of market cap), providing significant flexibility for buybacks/growth. This should provide meaningful cushion to withstand potential pressure from lower PJM capacity or energy prices. We also see upside to 2030+ ERCOT power.
PJM reforms and near-term ERCOT power forwards are the overhangs
VST remains confident of data center opportunities. Investors we speak to are frustrated by PJM lack of clarity and concerned about 2027-2028 ERCOT power price downside from data center delays.VST remains steadfastly confident on bilateral contracting of existing generation, including in PA. Investor expectations for deal announcements are low. Helixarrangement gives Vistra a channel to provide capacity or power land. ERCOT forwards remain depressed and are not sending a price signal for new battery development.
Balance sheet over buybacks
Vistra reaffirmed its commitment to a BBB profile on several occasions, and ~2.0x-2.5x net leverage, suggesting limited appetite for an aggressive debt-funded buyback. Higher rates make development project economics more challenging, increasing the strategic value of a strong credit profile.
PT to $170 from $189
+20% potential upside ex-unannounced deals reflected in our PT and embedding a ~$12/sh valuation headwind for PJM capacity price normalization to $150/MWd. We reflect no future data center deals with the existing generation amid ongoing regulatory backdrop. Overall, we view this as a conservative valuation without accretive balance sheet deployment.
We acknowledge the more opaque backdrop in PJM (backstop capacity procurement and market reforms) and Texas (data center moratorium).We do not expect any deal announcements are imminent, but continue to see shares at an attractive entry point. VST remains the best diversified IPP for exposure to rising power prices given a wide platform and off-peak volume potential.