摩根大通维持南亚科(2408.TW)增持、目标价850新台币：3Q26符合预期，看好DDR4紧缺与AI服务器转型

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research
12 October 2026

Nanya Technology
3Q in-line: Legacy DRAM tightness in the NT; 40-50%
AI sales mix and 50%+ LTA coverage by 2030E; OW
NYT reported in-line 3Q26 results and we came back with positive impressions
from its overall outlook commentary. Key messages can be summarized into three
points: a) S-D imbalance/shortage for overall and DDR4 market continuing into
next year, b) 40-50% AI infrastructure and server compute sales mix target in the
next 3-4 years, and c) double-digit % ASP sequential growth momentum and 80%
GPM potentially sustaining in the near term. Its relatively low multi-year LTA
coverage puts the company in a distinctive position to deliver stronger earnings
growth in the commodity memory space vs peers, in our view. We expect
consensus earnings to continue to move up post 3Q26 results and we maintain OW
on the stock. Under the ‘longer for higher up-cycle thesis’, we continue to
recommend investors accumulate (NYT shares +21% over the last 3M vs memory
peers -17% or TWSE/SOX +9%/-3%).

•

Consensus in-line 3Q26 results and solid 4Q26 outlook trajectory. 3Q26
revenue came in slightly below our estimates, the key difference being on
pricing (actual near mid-to-high 60% vs. our estimates of over 70%) amidst a
4-5% bit shipment decline and F/X tailwind. GPM came in-line at 85% and the
company continued to renew its OPM (80% OPM is the highest OPM among
all memory suppliers). Overall SG&A and Capex spending trends remain
largely consistent with our published forecasts from August (note). Heading
into 4Q26, the company guided for muted volume shipments (implied 4Q26
B/G around <5% decline relative to <20% 2026E annual B/G plan) without a
specific price range. Using management’s double-digit % ASP increase
potential commentary, this puts 4Q26 revenue trends within a mid-single-digit
% to double-digit % increase or higher on a consistent currency (vs JPMe:
+13% q-q). Management noted that more than half of the ASP increase from
3Q26 came from new LTA price negotiations (i.e. less than 50% of the price
increase came from like-for-like increases). Considering the downward
revision in the DRAM industry’s B/G production plan lately due to higher
HBM wafer allocation, we expect the pricing environment to remain favorable
for the broader DRAM space in 4Q26E and next year.

•

Tight DDR4/LPDDR4 S-D into 27E. Management echoed our view of
memory tightness continuing into 27E with DDR4 accounting for 12-14% of
the total DRAM market demand vs. NYT’s LSD% DRAM bit share, implying
a significant S-D gap today and into the foreseeable future. After 60%+ Q/Q
price growth in 3Q, management expects a double digit % ASP increase and
above 80% OPM momentum, potentially a possible scenario without
specifying exact time duration (JPM view: likely pointing to 4Q26 rather than
2027). Against the memory de-spec concerns, management expects diverging
trends across segments (i.e. high-end segment retaining elevated pricing levels
vs low-end segment facing de-specs or using recycled parts). Of note, NYT
reported that DDR4 and LPDDR4 together represent over 60% of 3Q26
revenue with the rest being DDR5 (10% of sales mostly PC) and <30% being
trailing technology.

Overweight
2408.TW, 2408 TT
Price (12 Oct 26):NT$527.00
Price Target (Jun-27):NT$850.00

Technology - Semiconductors
Jay Kwon AC
(82-2) 758-5725
jay.h.kwon@jpmorgan.com

Sangsik Lee
(82-2) 758 5146
sangsik.lee@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul
Branch

See page 8 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.

Jay Kwon AC
(82-2) 758-5725
jay.h.kwon@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research
12 October 2026

•

From indirect to direct AI beneficiary; 50% AI sales mix target by 2030. NYT exited
3Q26 with a 20%+ AI infrastructure/server sales mix and communicated an ambition to
expand this coverage to a 40%/50% mix by 29/30E. Incremental capacity coming online
from 4Q27 (30K wfpm by 28-end and ultimately 50K by 2030) will likely be allocated
to support CSP customers, revamping NYT’s traditional customer portfolio from B2Ccentric to B2B-centric. Since server applications command a higher ASP vs. PC/
mDRAM (JPMe: 50%+ premium), we expect a higher AI sales mix to bode well for
NYT's longer-term earnings quality. We are positive on NYT’s business transition from
an indirect AI beneficiary (legacy DRAM supply tightness from EOL in memory
conglomerates) to a direct beneficiary (shipping legacy DRAM chips directly to CSPs)
and expect NYT to see the biggest earnings beta if AI cycle sustains through 2030.

•

LTA coverage update. Management highlighted that 50-70% of total orders are under
LTA contracts ranging from quarterly supply to multi-year terms. Longest duration order
(3 years) is close to 20% of total wafer supply (the low-end of LTA coverage disclosed
by industry peers between 35-60%) and NYT expects the multi-year LTA mix to grow as
customers remain proactive securing the volume. We believe a large amount of AI
infrastructure/server compute could be the potential LTA target and NYT’s LTA coverage
could eventually reach half or a higher portion of business from a mid- to long-term
horizon. In 2027E, we note its high short-term duration order book portfolio could act in
favor of stronger earnings growth momentum (higher pricing power to benefit from
ongoing S-D shortage) vs peers (major sales volume under LTA contracts with relatively
low pricing volatility).

•

Catalyst and stock price outlook. NYT stock has outperformed memory peers over the
past 1M/3M (+7%/+21% vs. memory peers : -3%/-17% and TWSE: +7%/+9%) due
likely to renewed LTA coverage leveling up its ASP profiles from July-2027 (July
monthly sales reaccelerated to +720% y-y growth from +593% growth in June). While
the growth rate will likely decelerate into year-end and 1H27E from an extremely high
base, we are positive on NYT’s transformation from an indirect AI beneficiary to a direct
beneficiary and improving earnings quality backed by LTA. We believe monthly sales
trends to be a continuous monitoring point for investors to gauge earnings run-rate and
ASP trends, but also highlight a few catalysts: 1) DDR4/DDR5 spot price to check
memory price sentiment; 2) progress in advanced memory packaging business (Wafer on
Wafer); and 3) 27E memory S-D update from Asian memory conglomerates.

2

JPMORGAN

Jay Kwon AC
(82-2) 758-5725
jay.h.kwon@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research
12 October 2026

JPMORGAN

Table 1: NYT 3Q earnings review table
(NT$ mn)

3Q25

2Q26

3Q26 Actuals

Q/Q (%)

Y/Y (%)

JPMe

Diff. (%)

BBG

Sales

18,779

82,549

133,649

61.9%

611.7%

136,854

-2%

133,262

Diff. (%)
0%

Gross profit

3,465

65,619

114,482

74.5%

3204.1%

117,377

-2%

113,470

1%
51 bps

Gross Margin

18%

79%

86%

617 bps

6721 bps

86%

11 bps

85%

Operating profit

1,119

60,826

106,894

75.7%

9451.3%

110,786

-4%

107,882

-1%

Operating Margin

6%

74%

80%

630 bps

7402 bps

81%

97 bps

81%

-97 bps

Net Income

1,563

50,192

87,627

74.6%

5505.1%

88,313

-1%

89,124

-2%

Net Income Margin (%)

8%

61%

66%

476 bps

5724 bps

65%

-103 bps

67%

-131 bps

New Taiwan GAAP EPS

0.50

14.55

25.40

75%

4934.4%

25.60

-1%

26.02

-2%

Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates.

Figure 1: NYT – FTM P/B band
NT$, x

4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Oct-16

+2 STD
+1 STD

Avg

-1 STD

-2 STD

Oct-17 Oct-18
Forward PB

Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21
-2 STD
-1 STD

Oct-22 Oct-23 Oct-24
Mean
+1 STD

Oct-25 Oct-26
+2 STD

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates

Figure 2: Global memory makers’ share price performance including SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor index)
%

1900%

1M

3M

YTD

1Yr

1400%

1253%
753%

900%
400%
-100%

108% 165%
-4% -13%

SEC

146%275%

-12%-27%

Sk hynix

467%
261%
6% 5%

Micron

435%
173%
7%21%

NYT

403%

-3%-32%

Kioxia

566%

-3% -17%

SNDK

96%
6% 77%
-3%

SOX

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Note: Past performance is not an indicator of future results

3

Jay Kwon AC
(82-2) 758-5725
jay.h.kwon@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research
12 October 2026

JPMORGAN

Q&A highlights
Q. Thoughts on DDR4 demand trend from key AI customers? Thoughts on AAPL
adopting China competitor’s chips?
D4 demand remains strong – it accounts for 10% of the total memory demand.
Compared to demand, NYT's market share is LSD% of the total mkt. NYT is flexible to
adjust in LPD4/D4 with DDR5. We are not a major supplier to AAPL. We supply
memory for AAPL modem chips, and we do not pick up signs of competition for this
product segment
Q. Customer profiles for advanced packaging?
We have more than 1 customer working with us on AI related WoW (Wafer on Wafer)
bonding projects. Applications will span from cloud computation (AI) to edgecomputation and physical AI. NYT already generates some revenue (not a lot).
Q. Thoughts on how the DDR4 price hike cycle will end?
DDR4 demand is still strong. High-end portion will likely sustain higher ASPs. Areas
that will likely face adjustment are the low-end segment that will likely de-spec or use
recycled parts.Overall, the DDR4 market is healthy. Note that we are flexible to adjust
between D4 and D5.
Q. 60%+ ASP in 3Q, how much of that was LTA?
Mix of everything. Renewal of 6M-12M LTA. Negotiated either in 1Q/2Q25 or 3Q25.
ASP was relatively low back-then.
Q. LP solution for server?
Mix of everything including DDR4/DDR5/LPDDR. Chips for communication/storage/
system management/eSSD/RDIMM.
Q. Server mix target?
Server mix will improve in 27/28/29. Our goal is to improve the server mix by 40-50%
by 29/30. Incremental capacity coming online will be used for AI infrastructure/
customers.

4

Jay Kwon AC
(82-2) 758-5725
jay.h.kwon@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research
12 October 2026

JPMORGAN

Q.DDR4 price view in Dec-Q vs 3Q?
Expect market shortages to continue in the Dec-Q. ASP to improve gradually over DecQ. For next year, the situation depends on continued shortage in each applications. For
instance, HBM price negotiation for next year is about to be completed which will
impact conventional DRAM supply (since pricing will determine capacity allocation
plans).
Q. DDR4 demand to grow next year vs B/G?
DDR4/LPD4 – the demand size will continue to go smaller. However, the remaining
demand is still strong compared to available supply. At the end-2025, when the industry
started to EOL DDR4/LPD4, DDR4/LPD4 demand accounted for 30% of the total
market. That percentage is coming down, but it's still a substantially larger number vs.
NYT’s capacity (which accounts for LSD% of the total market) Nanya has the
flexibility to move DDR4 to other products. Today, NYT believes D4/LPD4 accounts
for 12-14% of the total demand.
Q. 3Q revenue mix by application?

•
•

DDR5: 10%
LPD4/DDR4: 60%+ of sales

Q. Dividend payout ratio?
NYT spent quite a bit of capex on future equipment procurement. Capex could go up to
US$16bn for 50Kwfpm(1 fab including construction/cleanroom/equipment/EUV etc.).
Second, NYT has a consistent dividend distribution policy. Continue to payout
dividends for next year. We will balance between two factors: Capex and dividend.
Q. Capex financing plan, production timeline, potential customer demand for the
new fab at Ping Tung.
Capex $ not finalized. Up to US$10bn capex in the long run. Production timeline:
equipment move in by 2H28. Mainly for customer demand for AI applications.
Q.DD% contract price growth can be sustained with 80%+ GPM?
Potentially possible
Q. Current LTA coverage rate and the proportion of the price floor and ceiling?
LTA portion is 50-70% range. Terms range from quarterly to 3-years. Overall speaking,
the contract accounts for 20% of the output. Plan to increase LTA according to customer
demand. Customers are proactive in terms of getting longer-term supply. Discuss floor/
ceiling prices for the upcoming new contracts. There are liability to both sides –
suppliers commit to capex for future capacity / equipment purchase. Customers are
likely to commit to some degree of honoring the LTA.

5

Jay Kwon AC
(82-2) 758-5725
jay.h.kwon@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research
12 October 2026

JPMORGAN

Q. Can we quantify how the chip capex flows into the chip demand?
Key indicators/indexes are long term AI investments. If the ROI from frontier AI labs
(Anthropic/OpenAI, etc.) and Mainland China CSP makes sense, then the memory
shortage condition will continue.
Q. What % of the shipment is wafer?
20% is a wafer that customers can take and dice it for their multi-chip packaging. 80%
is the device or module
Q. % for a private placement?
Products include eSSDs, KVcache and high bandwidth flash. Communication/switch/
management chip.
Q. Any buyback plans?
No
Q. How could Global Foundry’s wafer price hike could impact NYT’s margins
We have multiple wafer vendors. Wafer price increases are not the only cost drivers.
Equipment/material/construction/labor costs are increasing
Q. 3Q revenue breakdown for other applications?
No specific breakdown but broadly spread across automotive/industrial/general
consumer applications (using LP). PC mostly use DDR5.
Q. Growth outlook for AI-related businesses in 26/27?
NYT aims to increase AI infrastructure business from 20% to 40%/50% by 29/30.
Q. 27E B/G guidance?
Remain flat for a few quarters until 2H27E.

6

Jay Kwon AC
(82-2) 758-5725
jay.h.kwon@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research
12 October 2026

JPMORGAN

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks
Nanya Technology (Overweight; Price Target: NT$850.00)
Investment Thesis
We are OW on NYT, given the resilient legacy DRAM pricing, coupled with leading
memory makers phasing out DDR4 to drive pricing leverage higher in 2H26E and 2027E.
NYT’s entry into the NVIDIA supply chain will help it to extend its server industry exposure
well beyond the 20% level, in our view, while simultaneously reducing its large CE
exposure, making its pricing trend less volatile and more stable. While we expect quarterly
earnings y-y momentum to decelerate slightly as we head into 2H26, we see NYT as having
a relatively favorable risk/reward in the near to midterm, as we expect all memory stocks
to move up together during an up-cycle.
Valuation
Our Jun-27 PT of NT$850 is based on 7x F12M EPS, on par with Korean DRAM makers,
driven by our higher-for-longer thesis.
Risks to Rating and Price Target
Downside risks include:

•
•

Shorter-than-expected legacy DRAM spot price momentum into 2H26.

•

Unsuccessful AI-related memory product development, allowing the company to derate (a failure in next-gen technology migration, creating room for competitors to catch
up).

•

Faster-than-expected DDR5 yield improvement from CXMT.

A shorter-than-expected D4 16Gb die shelf cycle from the consumer market (i.e.,
customers’ willingness to transition from D4 to D5 could result in weaker-than-expected
D4/LPD4 pricing from 2026-end to 2027 onward).

7

Jay Kwon AC
(82-2) 758-5725
jay.h.kwon@jpmorgan.com

Asia Pacific Equity Research
12 October 2026

JPMORGAN

Analyst Certification: The Research Analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple Research Analysts
are primarily responsible for this report, the Research Analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document individually certifies,
with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report
accurately reflect the Research Analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the
Research Analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the
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requirements, that the Research Analyst’s analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect the Research Analyst’s own opinion,
without undue influence or intervention.
All authors named within this report are Research Analysts who produce independent research unless otherwise specified. In Europe, Sector
Specialists (Sales and Trading) may be shown on this report as contacts but are not authors of the report or part of the Research Department.

Important Disclosures
Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in the financial instruments of/related to Nanya
Technology or related entities.
Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: Nanya Technology or related entities.
Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies)
as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Nanya Technology or related entities.
Non-Investment Banking Compensation Received: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services
other than investment banking from Nanya Technology or related entities.
Debt Position: J.P. Morgan may hold a position in the debt securities of Nanya Technology or related entities, if any.
Company-Specific Disclosures: J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors
should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report
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https://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures , calling 1-800-477-0406, or e-mailing research.disclosure.inquiries@jpmorgan.com with your
request.
Date

Rating

Price (NT$) Price Target
(NT$)

10-Jul-24

OW

73.00

85

11-Oct-24

N

43.50

48

10-Dec-24

UW

32.50

25

14-Jan-25

UW

25.40

20

03-Apr-25

N

41.10

46.5

10-Jul-25

N

48.40

54

25-Sep-25

N

76.00

86

14-Dec-25

N

162.00

155

22-Mar-26

N

234.00

220

14-Apr-26

N

225.50

230

03-Jul-26

OW

407.00

710

09-Aug-26

OW

457.00

850

The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight (over the duration of the price target indicated in this report, we expect this stock will
outperform the average total return of the stocks in the Research Analyst’s, or the Research Analyst’s team’s, coverage universe); Neutral (over
the duration of the price target indicated in this report, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the
Research Analyst’s, or the Research Analyst’s team’s, coverage universe); and Underweight (over the duration of the price target indicated in
this report, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the Research Analyst’s, or the Research Analyst’s
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(82-2) 758-5725
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Asia Pacific Equity Research
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JPMORGAN

team’s, coverage universe. NR is Not Rated. In this case, J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this stock
because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the
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but no price target; in these cases, we expect the stock will outperform/perform in line/underperform the average total return of the stocks in the
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the certifying Research Analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan’s Research website, https://www.jpmorganmarkets.com .
Coverage Universe: Kwon, Jay : LG Corp (003550.KS), LG Display (034220.KS), LG Electronics (066570.KS), LG Innotek (011070.KS),
Nanya Technology (2408.TW), SK Inc (034730.KS), SK hynix (000660.KS), SK hynix ADR (SKHY), SKC (011790.KS), Samsung C&T
(028260.KS), Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS), Samsung Electronics (005930.KS)
J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of October 03, 2026

J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage*
IB clients**
JPMS Equity Research Coverage*
IB clients**

Overweight
(buy)
53%
83%
51%
95%

Neutral
(hold)
35%
81%
37%
93%

Underweight
(sell)
12%
72%
12%
88%

*Please note that the percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding.
**Percentage of subject companies within each of the "buy," "hold" and "sell" categories for which J.P. Morgan has provided
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
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