美国银行Doubao · 实盘不做把握 6/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·🕒 发布 05:38:37·⟳ 抓取 05:53:13·⚡ 决策 10-13 05:54:25 +1m12s·14.8 天前
美银重申应用材料买入、目标价650美元,看好SEMICON West前WFE超增长逻辑,但无新增评级催化
这是卖方重申既有评级和长期模型的行业会议预览,不含公司公告、新订单、业绩指引上修或目标价调整;报告发布于10月9日,信号10月12日晚间才到达,短线事件edge不足。AMAT当前497.53美元、盘后496.50美元,近5日下跌约8.25%,也未见市场把该研报作为新增利好重定价。
📄 原文美国银行↗ 原文
SEMICON West preview: Well positioned for WFE outperformance
Accessible version Applied Materials, Inc. SEMICON West preview: Well positioned for WFE outperformance Reiterate Ratin…
不做 Applied Materials, Inc.(AMAT.US)
不做:美银只是重申既有BUY和650美元目标价的SEMICON West前瞻,无新增订单、指引或评级变化;报告已于10月9日发布,AMAT近期反而连续回调,短线风险收益不明确。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
美银长期看好AMAT在DRAM、先进逻辑和先进封装中的WFE份额提升,但本次只是会议前瞻并重申8月已有的650美元目标价,缺少新增公司事实。以约3950亿美元市值的大盘股看,单一卖方重申不足以支撑隔夜事件交易。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-09 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- BofA认为AMAT Systems在CY26增长约40%、高于WFE约33%,并在logic份额提升约150bp至约20%,长期基本面叙述仍为正面。
- CY28 EPS power区间27.60-32.68美元、较共识高16%-38%,但这是三年期模型观点,并非未来数日确定兑现的新增订单或指引。
主要风险
- 若SEMICON West早餐会公布超预期订单、客户扩产或公司上调展望,当前AVOID可能错过右侧重估。
- AI资本开支、先进逻辑/DRAM爬坡或混合键合采用慢于预期,将削弱美银的份额和EPS power假设。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 影响 weakens
当前报告自身列示AI资本开支放缓、先进logic/memory爬坡延迟、混合键合采用慢于预期和份额兑现失败等风险;本轮未发现足以反向证实新利空的公司事件。
检索:AMAT recent downside risks WFE spending cuts guidance advanced packaging DRAM October 2026 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-10-09 · 影响 weakens
正文显示Reiterate且650美元目标价Date Established为2026-08-13,未发现本次新上调评级、目标价或公司指引。
检索:AMAT BofA SEMICON West preview rating target price change August 2026 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:因缺少新增事实和可对齐先例,最终不给出LONG仓位;若后续会议出现公司级新指引,再按新事件重新研究。
方向:未构建可交易先例:本次不是评级/目标价新变化,也不是公司事件,历史上卖方重申评级的价格反应高度依赖其他同步催化,直接外推意义有限。
涨幅量级:无高相似、同相位且首发锚干净的先例可用于校准止盈止损。
形态:AMAT自身近5个交易日连续走弱,提示该类会议预览尚未形成短线买盘,但这只是当前价格背景,不构成统计先例。
工具执行结果 · 成功 2 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 23 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`amat investor breakfast semicon west october 2026 wfe outperformance | applied materials bofa semicon west preview buy po 650 | 应用材料 美银 semicon west 目标价 650`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选,不能据此证明 - stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 384 ms
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原文全文
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Accessible version
Applied Materials, Inc.
SEMICON West preview: Well positioned
for WFE outperformance
Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 650.00 USD | Price: 509.57 USD
Focus will be on how roadmap enables LT WFE outgrowth
09 October 2026 Corrected
AMAT’s annual Investor Breakfast presentation at SEMICON West (Oct 13-16 in San
Francisco) could focus on the long-term growth opportunity inside an unprecedented
time when WFE is growing from $156bn CY26 to ~$360bn CY30 (25% CAGR). We think
the message will be: (1) how materials engineering could comprise 75-100% of
incremental WFE as devices gain complexity; (2) optimization/integration across multiple
process steps required for AI-inflections like gate-all-around, next-gen memory; (3)
power/performance are bottlenecks, but so is time-to-market (given supply constraints)
making initiatives like EPIC more relevant; (4) how AMAT has been investing in these
goals across its broad portfolio which should lead to multi-year outgrowth to WFE. Reit.
Buy on DRAM leadership, share gains in logic and advanced packaging, Street estimates
likely don’t reflect growth potential ahead. Consensus expects +22%/+31% sales/EPS
CAGR CY26-28 but our EPS power analysis suggests +28%/43% as a base case (ex. 7).
Equity
th
Advanced logic, DRAM, advanced packaging key drivers
As more wafers shift to the leading-edge CY27-30E, we expect AMAT to better realize
>50% share of its $14bn per 100K wafers 2nm GAA/BSPDN SAM and $6.5bn per 100K
wafers for 4F2 DRAM ($7.5bn for 3D DRAM), a +30% increase vs. FinFET and 6F2,
respectively. AMAT has the largest advanced packaging franchise (~$1.5bn FY25
growing >70% YoY and doubling LT), and we expect an update on how recent
investments (NEXX, Kinex BESI collaboration) should contribute to structural gains.
Systems growing ~7ppt above WFE CY26, below CY27/29
Against WFE growth of +33%, AMAT Systems are growing +40% YoY, second only to
LRCX. Partly strong exposure to DRAM (~19% share), we believe the gains largely came
from logic, where AMAT is picking up 150bps of share to ~20%, as foundry/logic sales
grow 38% YoY against logic WFE of +28% YoY. As logic/DRAM continues to dominate
spending, we expect outgrowth to continue ahead. However, current consensus has
estimates undergrowing our WFE estimates of 30-40% YoY growth CY27-28, which in
our view is at odds with the structural share gain opportunity shaping up for AMAT.
Estimates (Oct) (US$)
EPS
GAAP EPS
EPS Change (YoY)
Consensus EPS (Bloomberg)
Consensus EPS (Visible Alpha)
DPS
Valuation (Oct)
P/E
GAAP P/E
Dividend Yield
EV / EBITDA*
Free Cash Flow Yield*
2024A
8.66
8.61
7.6%
2025A
9.42
8.66
8.8%
1.84
2026E
12.76
12.95
35.5%
12.99
12.76
2.12
2027E
18.54
17.36
45.3%
18.81
18.75
2.43
2028E
23.50
22.30
26.8%
23.92
23.94
2.74
1.44
58.8x
59.2x
0.3%
49.0x
1.9%
54.1x
58.8x
0.4%
45.3x
1.4%
39.9x
39.3x
0.4%
34.2x
1.6%
27.5x
29.4x
0.5%
23.5x
3.0%
21.7x
22.9x
0.5%
18.7x
3.6%
* For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 9.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research
reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this
report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12. Analyst Certification on page 8. Price
Objective Basis/Risk on page 8.
13026644
Vivek Arya
Research Analyst
BofAS
+1 646 855 1755
vivek.arya@bofa.com
Duksan Jang
Research Analyst
BofAS
duksan.jang@bofa.com
Michael Mani
Research Analyst
BofAS
michael.mani@bofa.com
Liam Pharr
Research Analyst
BofAS
liam.pharr@bofa.com
Stock Data
Price
509.57 USD
Price Objective
650.00 USD
Date Established
13-Aug-2026
Investment Opinion
52-Week Range
Mrkt Val (mn) / Shares Out
C-1-7
203.40 USD - 739.67 USD
404,578 USD / 794.0
(mn)
Free Float
Average Daily Value (mn)
BofA Ticker / Exchange
Bloomberg / Reuters
99.6%
3125.68 USD
AMAT / NAS
AMAT US / AMAT.OQ
ROE (2026E)
41.9%
Net Dbt to Eqty (Oct-2025A)
-9.9%
Glossary on page 6
iQprofile Applied Materials, Inc.
SM
iQmethod SM – Bus Performance*
(US$ Millions)
Return on Capital Employed
Return on Equity
Operating Margin
Free Cash Flow
Company Sector
2024A
29.7%
40.8%
29.1%
7,487
2025A
26.9%
38.6%
30.1%
5,698
2026E
33.2%
41.9%
32.9%
6,275
2027E
33.7%
42.9%
35.4%
12,093
2028E
32.0%
38.2%
36.8%
14,643
Semiconductor Capital Equipment
Company Description
Applied Materials is a supplier of semiconductor and
semiconductor-related fabrication equipment, providing
iQmethod SM – Quality of Earnings*
(US$ Millions)
Cash Realization Ratio
Asset Replacement Ratio
Tax Rate
Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Interest Cover
g technology solutions to the global
2024A
1.2x
3.0x
12.0%
-16.9%
32.1x
2025A
1.0x
5.2x
24.5%
-9.9%
31.8x
2026E
0.9x
4.8x
12.5%
-16.2%
41.3x
2027E
1.0x
3.0x
13.7%
-32.5%
20.9x
2028E
1.0x
3.0x
13.5%
-42.6%
26.3x
semiconductor, flat panel display, and other industries.
Applied's results are primarily driven by worldwide demand
for chips and flat panel displays, which, in turn, depends on
end-user demand for electronic products.
Investment Rationale
Income Statement Data (Oct)
(US$ Millions)
Sales
% Change
Gross Profit
% Change
EBITDA
% Change
Net Interest & Other Income
Net Income (Adjusted)
% Change
We rate AMAT Buy. AMAT is among the largest suppliers of
2024A
27,176
2.5%
12,897
4.1%
8,316
1.0%
265
7,210
6.0%
2025A
28,368
4.4%
13,808
7.1%
8,997
8.2%
140
7,607
5.5%
2026E
34,287
20.9%
17,126
24.0%
11,911
32.4%
119
10,187
33.9%
2027E
46,731
36.3%
23,702
38.4%
17,360
45.7%
260
14,656
43.9%
2028E
56,369
20.6%
28,768
21.4%
21,741
25.2%
260
18,328
25.1%
semiconductor capital equipment due to its broad product
2024A
7,177
392
1,117
(633)
624
(1,190)
7,487
-1.4%
(3,580)
(1,192)
593
2025A
6,998
435
1,718
(29)
(1,164)
(2,260)
5,698
-23.9%
(4,634)
(1,384)
289
2026E
10,346
583
(2,023)
25
127
(2,783)
6,275
10.1%
(1,486)
(1,569)
(101)
2027E
13,732
774
(1,110)
0
1,034
(2,337)
12,093
92.7%
(1,760)
(1,910)
0
2028E
17,404
934
(2,118)
0
1,242
(2,818)
14,643
21.1%
(1,760)
(2,120)
0
Stock Data
portfolio, technical capabilities, and strong service and
support. In our view, the combination of AMAT's scale and
balanced portfolio positions it to be a key beneficiary of
growing demand for all chips in a data-driven economy. We
think AMAT will benefit from an upcyle in DRAM WFE and
leading-edge foundry/logic where it can capture share.
Free Cash Flow Data (Oct)
(US$ Millions)
Net Income from Cont Operations (GAAP)
Depreciation & Amortization
Change in Working Capital
Deferred Taxation Charge
Other Adjustments, Net
Capital Expenditure
Free Cash Flow
% Change
Share / Issue Repurchase
Cost of Dividends Paid
Change in Debt
Balance Sheet Data (Oct)
(US$ Millions)
Cash & Equivalents
Trade Receivables
Other Current Assets
Property, Plant & Equipment
Other Non-Current Assets
Total Assets
Short-Term Debt
Other Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt
Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Total Equity
Total Equity & Liabilities
2024A
9,471
5,234
6,515
3,339
9,850
34,409
799
7,669
5,460
1,480
15,408
19,001
34,409
* For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 9.
2
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
2025A
8,573
5,185
7,123
4,610
10,808
36,299
100
7,899
6,455
1,430
15,884
20,415
36,299
2026E
11,126
7,522
7,870
6,401
12,821
45,741
1,299
8,696
5,245
2,294
17,534
28,207
45,741
2027E
19,550
8,733
8,579
8,738
12,821
58,420
1,299
9,505
5,245
2,294
18,343
40,077
58,420
2028E
30,313
9,662
9,072
11,556
12,821
73,425
1,299
8,810
5,245
2,294
17,648
55,777
73,425
Average Daily Volume
6,186,439
Quarterly Earnings Estimates
2025
2026
Q1
2.38A
2.38A
Q2
2.39A
2.86A
Q3
2.48A
3.50E
Q4
2.17A
4.02E
Exhibits
Exhibit 1: AMAT is outgrowing WFE in CY26, with System sales growing 40% YoY vs. industry growth of 33% YoY. It is also outgrowing other large semi cap
peers, growing an average of +37% YoY.
Major semicap systems sales CY19-28
Semi Systems Sales ($mn)
Applied Materials
ASML
Lam Research
KLA Corporation
Tokyo Electron
Total sales
Sales YoY%
Applied Materials
ASML
Lam Research
KLA Corporation
Tokyo Electron
Total sales
Share of Top 5 Semi Caps
Applied Materials
ASML
Lam Research
KLA Corporation
Tokyo Electron
Total sales
CY19
CY20
CY21
CY22
CY23
CY24
CY25
CY26
CY27
CY28
9,573
10,044
6,295
3,221
6,934
36,067
12,106
12,023
7,968
3,727
8,248
44,072
17,300
15,865
10,974
5,439
12,360
61,939
19,392
16,135
12,387
7,413
12,655
67,982
19,445
23,804
8,322
6,716
9,853
68,141
20,599
23,365
9,584
7,544
11,576
72,667
20,985
28,232
13,378
8,972
11,639
83,205
29,398
38,038
19,461
11,240
15,452
113,589
39,188
50,718
26,796
15,085
25,239
157,025
45,870
64,479
32,257
18,362
32,447
193,414
-4%
4%
-21%
2%
-18%
-8%
26%
20%
27%
16%
19%
22%
43%
32%
38%
46%
50%
41%
12%
2%
13%
36%
2%
10%
0%
48%
-33%
-9%
-22%
0%
6%
-2%
15%
12%
17%
7%
2%
21%
40%
19%
1%
15%
40%
35%
45%
25%
33%
37%
33%
33%
38%
34%
63%
38.2%
17%
27%
20%
22%
29%
23%
27%
28%
17%
9%
19%
100%
27%
27%
18%
8%
19%
100%
28%
26%
18%
9%
20%
100%
29%
24%
18%
11%
19%
100%
29%
35%
12%
10%
14%
100%
28%
32%
13%
10%
16%
100%
25%
34%
16%
11%
14%
100%
26%
33%
17%
10%
14%
100%
25%
32%
17%
10%
16%
100%
24%
33%
17%
9%
17%
100%
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, Gartner, company reports, Visible Alpha
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Exhibit 2: Advanced logic and DRAM WFE (along with associated advanced packaging) should be the
biggest drivers of WFE growth through CY28 which AMAT’s portfolio is well suited for
WFE by device type ($ mn)
300,000
Foundry/Logic
DRAM
NAND
150,000
0
CY19
CY20
CY21
CY22
CY23
CY24
CY25
CY26
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, Gartner, company reports, Visible Alpha
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
3
Exhibit 3: AMAT’s share of WFE is ticking up to 18.9% in CY26
WFE share among major semicaps
30%
20%
Applied Materials
Lam Research
Tokyo Electron
18.3%
Exhibit 4: We think this share gain is driven by a 150bps surge in
foundry/logic share
Foundry/Logic WFE share among major semicaps
ASML
KLA Corporation
19.8% 19.7% 20.3% 19.9% 19.6%
30%
18.0%
Applied Materials
Lam Research
Tokyo Electron
ASML
KLA Corporation
22.2%
18.9%
20%
17.7%
18.5%
20.3% 20.1%
19.9%
18.5%
20.1%
10%
10%
0%
CY19
CY20
CY21
CY22
CY23
CY24
CY25
CY26
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, Gartner, company reports, Visible Alpha
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
0%
CY19
Materials Engineering WFE
90%
34%
41% 39% 39% 37%
Lithography/Track WFE
33% 31% 28% 31% 34% 33% 30% 27%
38% 35% 36% 36% 36% 36% 37% 37%
60%
67% 69%
30% 66% 59% 61% 61% 63%
72% 69%
66% 67% 70%
73%
62% 65% 64% 64% 64% 64% 63% 63%
0%
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, company reports, Gartner
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
4
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
CY21
CY22
CY23
CY24
CY25
CY26
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, Gartner, company reports, Visible Alpha
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Exhibit 5: We believe incremental WFE should continue to favor materials engineering WFE over
litho/track steps which is a tailwind for AMAT share
Materials Engineering WFE (ex-Process Control and Clean) vs. Litho/Track WFE mix
120%
CY20
Exhibit 6: Many of the new tools Applied Materials has released over the last few years have been
focused on advanced packaging and interconnect applications with an emphasis on integration
Recent product releases by Applied Materials since CY24
Year
2024
2024
2025
2025
2025
2026
2026
2026
2026
2026
2026
2026
2026
Product
Area
What It Does
RuCo liner enables copper scaling
Endura Copper Barrier Seed IMS
Interconnect
at 2nm+ while lowering
+ Volta Ruthenium CVD
resistance up to 25%
Lower capacitance dielectric with
Enhanced Black Diamond Low-K
Interconnect / Packaging
improved mechanical strength
First integrated die-to-wafer
Kinex Hybrid Bonding
Advanced Packaging
hybrid bonding platform
Void-free source/drain epitaxy for
Centura Xtera Epi
Logic / GAA
GAA transistors
Advanced eBeam metrology with
PROVision 10
Process Control
sub-nanometer resolution
Brings logic-class strain
Enhanced Centura Prime Epi
DRAM
engineering into DRAM peripheral
transistors
CMP designed specifically for
Opta Quad CMP
Advanced Packaging
hybrid bonding surfaces
High uniformity Cu plating for
Nokota VMax 2 ECD
Advanced Packaging
TSVs and microbumps
Stress-balanced films for ultraProducer Avila 2 PECVD
HBM
thin HBM dies
eBeam metrology for warped
VeritySEM 7AP
Advanced Packaging Metrology
packaging substrates
Defect review and classification
SEMVision G7AP
Advanced Packaging Inspection
for packaging
Advanced nitride deposition for
Centris Spectral SiN ALD
Logic / Memory
complex 3D structures
Selective molybdenum etch for
Producer Selectra Mo Etch
NAND
next-gen wordline structures
Source: Applied Materials
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Exhibit 7: We see potential CY28 EPS power of $27.60-$32.68 for AMAT, 16-38% above consensus
AMAT EPS Power
Units in $bn
CY28 WFE
Share
Systems Revenue
Services
Other
Total
Gross Profit
Gross Margin
Opex
Opex % of sales
Operating Income
Operating Margin
Interest Income/Expense
Pre-Tax Income
Tax Rate
Net Income
pf-EPS
Share Count
Consensus CY28 EPS
Upside (%)
Forward PE Assumption
Implied CY30E Val'n
CY26-28E Sales CAGR
CY26-28E EPS CAGR
AMAT
18.0%
$49.0
$7.9
$1.7
$56.8
$30.7
54.0%
$7.4
13%
$23.3
41.0%
$0.1
$23.4
11.0%
$20.8
$27.50
756
$23.77
15.7%
20.0x
$550
22.0%
37.5%
$272
20.0%
$54.4
$7.9
$1.7
$62.3
$33.6
54.0%
$8.1
13%
$25.5
41.0%
$0.0
$25.5
11.0%
$22.7
$30.05
756
$23.77
26.4%
20.0x
$601
27.7%
43.7%
22.0%
$59.8
$7.9
$1.7
$67.7
$36.6
54.0%
$8.8
13%
$27.8
41.0%
$0.0
$27.8
11.0%
$24.7
$32.68
756
$23.77
37.5%
20.0x
$654
33.2%
49.9%
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, company reports
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
5
Exhibit 8: Multiples across the semicap landscape are in-line with long-term medians despite strong ~30% EPS CAGR ahead, including AMAT
AMAT comps table
Mkt
cap
ASML
Camtek
Nova
Onto Innovation
Axcelis
KLA Corporation
Lam Research
Tokyo Electron
Overall Average
Overall Median
Applied Materials
Applied Materials Consensus
(in mn)
$708,278
$7,024
$11,270
$14,363
$4,122
$257,024
$401,194
$183,976
$404,393
$404,393
P/E
EV/Sales
EV/FCF
Sales YoY (%)
EPS YoY (%)
2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E
41.5x
41.6x
33.3x
36.2x
32.5x
43.5x
41.1x
37.0x
38.3x
39.1x
29.9x
30.5x
26.0x
24.9x
25.3x
31.5x
30.0x
29.1x
28.4x
29.5x
23.1x
25.2x
21.2x
21.0x
16.2x
26.2x
24.6x
22.2x
22.5x
22.7x
35.0x
36.3x
26.2x
25.8x
21.3x
21.0x
Sales
CAGR
EPS
CAGR
PEG
Ratio
CY26-28
CY26-28
11.0x
10.5x
11.2x
8.8x
7.7x
7.4x
3.9x
12.9x
10.5x
7.5x
8.7x
8.2x
9.2x
7.7x
6.4x
6.5x
3.1x
11.1x
9.1x
6.3x
7.4x
7.1x
57.4x
89.9x
48.0x
56.5x
17.7x
54.3x
62.1x
164.5x
68.8x
56.9x
34.5x
28.2x
26.7x
27.1x
28.2x
34.0x
38.0x
58.9x
34.4x
31.1x
28.2x
41.9x
NA
26.1x
NA
29.6x
30.2x
29.3x
30.9x
29.4x
32%
20%
23%
45%
5%
23%
42%
27%
27%
25%
28%
28%
26%
29%
12%
28%
29%
20%
25%
28%
21%
15%
19%
13%
26%
16%
15%
18%
18%
17%
53%
11%
24%
64%
-16%
28%
59%
45%
33%
36%
39%
37%
28%
45%
28%
38%
37%
27%
35%
37%
30%
21%
23%
19%
56%
20%
22%
31%
28%
22%
25%
21%
22%
21%
19%
22%
22%
19%
21%
22%
34%
29%
25%
31%
42%
29%
29%
29%
31%
29%
0.7x
0.9x
0.8x
0.7x
0.4x
0.9x
0.8x
0.8x
0.7x
0.8x
10.5x
10.9x
8.2x
8.3x
6.9x
7.0x
45.7x
57.7x
33.5x
28.7x
26.8x
25.7x
35%
31%
28%
32%
18%
18%
54%
49%
34%
41%
23%
23%
23%
25%
28%
32%
0.8x
0.7x
14.3x
11.3x
9.7x
9.6x
4.3x
16.5x
13.6x
9.0x
CY28
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, company reports
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Glossary
AI: Artificial Intelligence
ALD: Atomic Layer Deposition
AMAT: Applied Materials
BESI: BE Semiconductor Industries
bn: Billion
BofA: Bank of America
BSPDN: Backside Power Delivery Network
bps: Basis Points
CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
CMP: Chemical Mechanical Planarization
Cu: Copper
CY: Calendar Year
CVD: Chemical Vapor Deposition
DRAM: Dynamic Random Access Memory
eBeam: Electron Beam
ECD: Electrochemical Deposition
EPIC: Equipment and Process Innovation and
Materials platform/strategy)
EPS: Earnings Per Share
EV/FCF: Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow
Ex.: Example
FCF: Free Cash Flow
FinFET: Fin Field-Effect Transistor
FY: Fiscal Year
GAA: Gate-All-Around (Transistor Architecture)
HBM: High Bandwidth Memory
IMS: Integrated Materials Solution
KLA: KLA Corporation
LT: Long-Term
LRCX: Lam Research Corporation
6
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
n (Applied
Low-K: Low Dielectric Constant
Mkt Cap: Market Capitalization
mn: Million
Mo: Molybdenum
NAND: Not AND Flash Memory
P/E: Price-to-Earnings Ratio
PECVD: Plasma-Enhanced Chemical Vapor Deposition
PEG Ratio: Price/Earnings-to-Growth Ratio
pf-EPS: Pro Forma Earnings Per Share
ppt: Percentage Points
Ru: Ruthenium
RuCo: Ruthenium-Cobalt
SAM: Served Available Market (or Serviceable Available Market)
SEM: Scanning Electron Microscope
SEMICON: Semiconductor International Conference and Exhibition
SiN: Silicon Nitride
Street: Wall Street Consensus Estimates
TSV: Through-Silicon Via
Val'n: Valuation
Volta: Applied Materials' ruthenium deposition platform
WFE: Wafer Fab Equipment
YoY: Year-over-Year
2nm: 2-Nanometer Process Node
4F2: 4F² DRAM Cell Architecture
6F2: 6F² DRAM Cell Architectur
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
7
Price objective basis & risk
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
Our PO of $650 is based on 27x our CY28E P/E estimate. Our PO basis is near the
middle of AMAT's historical 10-42x trading range justified given the potential for WFE
outgrowth in 2026/27E and remains at a discount to other large peers given more
balanced growth profile and lower profitability.
Downside risks to our PO are: slower-than-expected AI-driven semiconductor capital
spending, delays to leading-edge logic and memory ramps, lower-than-expected
materials engineering intensity at GAA, BSPDN, next-generation DRAM and advanced
packaging nodes, slower adoption of hybrid bonding technologies, failure to realize
expected market share gains across logic, DRAM and advanced packaging, increased
competitive pressure, execution risk around recent product investments and technology
transitions, and macroeconomic, geopolitical or supply-chain headwinds that reduce WFE
spending
Analyst Certification
I, Vivek Arya, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately
reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that no
part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or view expressed in this research report.
US - Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment Coverage Cluster
Investment rating
Company
BofA Ticker
Bloomberg symbol
Analyst
Advanced Energy Industries
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc
Allegro Microsystems
Analog Devices Inc.
Applied Materials, Inc.
Broadcom Inc
Cadence
Camtek
Credo Technology
Diodes Inc.
Intel
IonQ Inc
KLA Corporation
Lam Research Corp.
M/A-Com
Marvell Technology, Inc.
Microchip
Micron Technology, Inc
MKS Instruments
Nova
NVIDIA Corporation
onsemi
Quantinuum
Synopsys
Teradyne
Texas Instruments Inc.
AEIS
AMD
ALGM
ADI
AMAT
AVGO
CDNS
CAMT
CRDO
DIOD
INTC
IONQ
KLAC
LRCX
MTSI
MRVL
MCHP
MU
MKSI
NVMI
NVDA
ON
QNT
SNPS
TER
TXN
AEIS US
AMD US
ALGM US
ADI US
AMAT US
AVGO US
CDNS US
CAMT US
CRDO US
DIOD US
INTC US
IONQ US
KLAC US
LRCX US
MTSI US
MRVL US
MCHP US
MU US
MKSI US
NVMI US
NVDA US
ON US
QNT US
SNPS US
TER US
TXN US
Duksan Jang
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Michael Mani
Vivek Arya
Michael Mani
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Michael Mani
Michael Mani
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Ambarella
Ambiq Micro, Inc.
Arm Holdings
Astera Labs Inc
Coherent Corp
Lumentum Holdings
NXP Semiconductors NV
AMBA
AMBQ
ARM
ALAB
COHR
LITE
NXPI
AMBA US
AMBQ US
ARM US
ALAB US
COHR US
LITE US
NXPI US
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
BUY
NEUTRAL
8
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
US - Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment Coverage Cluster
Investment rating
Company
BofA Ticker
Bloomberg symbol
Analyst
Axcelis Technologies
GlobalFoundries
Lattice Semiconductor
Qualcomm
Skyworks Solutions, Inc.
ACLS
GFS
LSCC
QCOM
SWKS
ACLS US
GFS US
LSCC US
QCOM US
SWKS US
Duksan Jang
Vivek Arya
Duksan Jang
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Wolfspeed Inc
WOLF
WOLF US
Vivek Arya
UNDERPERFORM
RVW
iQmethod SM Measures Definitions
Business Performance
Return On Capital Employed
Numerator
NOPAT = (EBIT + Interest Income) × (1 − Tax Rate) + Goodwill Amortization
Return On Equity
Operating Margin
Earnings Growth
Free Cash Flow
Net Income
Operating Profit
Expected 5 Year CAGR From Latest Actual
Cash Flow From Operations − Total Capex
Denominator
Total Assets − Current Liabilities + ST Debt + Accumulated Goodwill
Amortization
Shareholders’ Equity
Sales
N/A
N/A
Quality of Earnings
Cash Realization Ratio
Asset Replacement Ratio
Tax Rate
Net Debt-To-Equity Ratio
Interest Cover
Numerator
Cash Flow From Operations
Capex
Tax Charge
Net Debt = Total Debt − Cash & Equivalents
EBIT
Denominator
Net Income
Depreciation
Pre-Tax Income
Total Equity
Interest Expense
Valuation Toolkit
Price / Earnings Ratio
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield
Free Cash Flow Yield
Enterprise Value / Sales
Numerator
Current Share Price
Current Share Price
Annualised Declared Cash Dividend
Cash Flow From Operations − Total Capex
EV = Current Share Price × Current Shares + Minority Equity + Net Debt +
Other LT Liabilities
Enterprise Value
Denominator
Diluted Earnings Per Share (Basis As Specified)
Shareholders’ Equity / Current Basic Shares
Current Share Price
Market Cap = Current Share Price × Current Basic Shares
Sales
EV / EBITDA
Basic EBIT + Depreciation + Amortization
iQ method SMis the set of BofA Global Research standard measures that serve to maintain global consistency under three broad headings: Business Performance, Quality of Earnings, and validations. The key features of
iQmethod are: A consistently structured, detailed, and transparent methodology. Guidelines to maximize the effectiveness of the comparative valuation process, and to identify some common pitfalls.
iQ database ® is our real-time global research database that is sourced directly from our equity analysts’ earnings models and includes forecasted as well as historical data for income statements, balance sheets, and cash
flow statements for companies covered by BofA Global Research.
iQ profile SM, iQ method SM are service marks of Bank of America Corporation. iQ database ® is a registered service mark of Bank of America Corporation.
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
9
Disclosures
Important Disclosures
Applied Materials (AMAT) Price Chart
The Investment Opinion System is contained at the end of the report under the heading "Fundamental Equity Opinion Key". Dark grey shading indicates the security is restricted with the opinion suspended. Medium grey
shading indicates the security is under review with the opinion withdrawn. Light grey shading indicates the security is not covered. Chart is current as of a date no more than one trading day prior to the date of the
report.
Equity Investment Rating Distribution: Technology Group (as of 30 Sep 2026)
Coverage Universe
Count
Percent
Buy
255
62.04%
Hold
82
19.95%
Sell
74
18.00%
Equity Investment Rating Distribution: Global Group (as of 30 Sep 2026)
Inv. Banking Relationships R1
Buy
Hold
Sell
Count
157
46
31
Percent
61.57%
56.10%
41.89%
Coverage Universe
Buy
Hold
Sell
Inv. Banking Relationships R1
Buy
Hold
Sell
Count
1386
563
446
Percent
67.38%
69.85%
59.95%
Count
2057
806
744
Percent
57.03%
22.35%
20.63%
Issuers that were investment banking clients of BofA Securities or one of its affiliates within the past 12 months. For purposes of this Investment Rating Distribution, the coverage universe includes only stocks. A stock
rated Neutral is included as a Hold, and a stock rated Underperform is included as a Sell.
R1
FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY OPINION KEY: Opinions include a Volatility Risk Rating, an Investment Rating and an Income Rating. VOLATILITY RISK RATINGS, indicators
of potential price fluctuation, are: A - Low, B - Medium and C - High. INVESTMENT RATINGS reflect the analyst’s assessment of both a stock’s absolute total return
potential as well as its attractiveness for investment relative to other stocks within its Coverage Cluster (defined below). Our investment ratings are: 1 - Buy stocks
are expected to have a total return of at least 10% and are the most attractive stocks in the coverage cluster; 2 - Neutral stocks are expected to remain flat or
increase in value and are less attractive than Buy rated stocks and 3 - Underperform stocks are the least attractive stocks in a coverage cluster. An investment
rating of 6 (No Rating) indicates that a stock is no longer trading on the basis of fundamentals. Analysts assign investment ratings considering, among other things,
the 0-12 month total return expectation for a stock and the firm’s guidelines for ratings dispersions (shown in the table below). The current price objective for a
stock should be referenced to better understand the total return expectation at any given time. The price objective reflects the analyst’s view of the potential price
appreciation (depreciation).
Investment rating
Total return expectation (within 12-month period of date of initial
rating)
Ratings dispersion guidelines for coverage clusterR2
Buy
≥ 10%
≤ 70%
Neutral
≥ 0%
≤ 30%
Underperform
N/A
≥ 20%
R2
Ratings dispersions may vary from time to time where BofA Global Research believes it better reflects the investment prospects of stocks in a Coverage Cluster.
INCOME RATINGS, indicators of potential cash dividends, are: 7 - same/higher (dividend considered to be secure), 8 - same/lower (dividend not considered to be
secure) and 9 - pays no cash dividend. Coverage Cluster is comprised of stocks covered by a single analyst or two or more analysts sharing a common industry,
sector, region or other classification(s). A stock’s coverage cluster is included in the most recent BofA Global Research report referencing the stock.
Price Charts for the securities referenced in this research report are available on the Price Charts website, or call 1-800-MERRILL to have them mailed.
BofAS or one of its affiliates acts as a market maker for the equity securities recommended in the report: Applied Materials.
The issuer is or was, within the last 12 months, an investment banking client of BofAS and/or one or more of its affiliates: Applied Materials.
BofAS or an affiliate has received compensation from the issuer for non-investment banking services or products within the past 12 months: Applied Materials.
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BofAS or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the past 12 months: Applied Materials.
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ownership position on the last day of the previous month. Reports issued before the 9th day of a month reflect the ownership position at the end of the second month preceding the date of
the report: Applied Materials.
BofAS or one of its affiliates is willing to sell to, or buy from, clients the common equity of the issuer on a principal basis: Applied Materials.
10
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
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Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
11
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12
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
Applied Materials, Inc.
SEMICON West preview: Well positioned
for WFE outperformance
Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 650.00 USD | Price: 509.57 USD
Focus will be on how roadmap enables LT WFE outgrowth
09 October 2026 Corrected
AMAT’s annual Investor Breakfast presentation at SEMICON West (Oct 13-16 in San
Francisco) could focus on the long-term growth opportunity inside an unprecedented
time when WFE is growing from $156bn CY26 to ~$360bn CY30 (25% CAGR). We think
the message will be: (1) how materials engineering could comprise 75-100% of
incremental WFE as devices gain complexity; (2) optimization/integration across multiple
process steps required for AI-inflections like gate-all-around, next-gen memory; (3)
power/performance are bottlenecks, but so is time-to-market (given supply constraints)
making initiatives like EPIC more relevant; (4) how AMAT has been investing in these
goals across its broad portfolio which should lead to multi-year outgrowth to WFE. Reit.
Buy on DRAM leadership, share gains in logic and advanced packaging, Street estimates
likely don’t reflect growth potential ahead. Consensus expects +22%/+31% sales/EPS
CAGR CY26-28 but our EPS power analysis suggests +28%/43% as a base case (ex. 7).
Equity
th
Advanced logic, DRAM, advanced packaging key drivers
As more wafers shift to the leading-edge CY27-30E, we expect AMAT to better realize
>50% share of its $14bn per 100K wafers 2nm GAA/BSPDN SAM and $6.5bn per 100K
wafers for 4F2 DRAM ($7.5bn for 3D DRAM), a +30% increase vs. FinFET and 6F2,
respectively. AMAT has the largest advanced packaging franchise (~$1.5bn FY25
growing >70% YoY and doubling LT), and we expect an update on how recent
investments (NEXX, Kinex BESI collaboration) should contribute to structural gains.
Systems growing ~7ppt above WFE CY26, below CY27/29
Against WFE growth of +33%, AMAT Systems are growing +40% YoY, second only to
LRCX. Partly strong exposure to DRAM (~19% share), we believe the gains largely came
from logic, where AMAT is picking up 150bps of share to ~20%, as foundry/logic sales
grow 38% YoY against logic WFE of +28% YoY. As logic/DRAM continues to dominate
spending, we expect outgrowth to continue ahead. However, current consensus has
estimates undergrowing our WFE estimates of 30-40% YoY growth CY27-28, which in
our view is at odds with the structural share gain opportunity shaping up for AMAT.
Estimates (Oct) (US$)
EPS
GAAP EPS
EPS Change (YoY)
Consensus EPS (Bloomberg)
Consensus EPS (Visible Alpha)
DPS
Valuation (Oct)
P/E
GAAP P/E
Dividend Yield
EV / EBITDA*
Free Cash Flow Yield*
2024A
8.66
8.61
7.6%
2025A
9.42
8.66
8.8%
1.84
2026E
12.76
12.95
35.5%
12.99
12.76
2.12
2027E
18.54
17.36
45.3%
18.81
18.75
2.43
2028E
23.50
22.30
26.8%
23.92
23.94
2.74
1.44
58.8x
59.2x
0.3%
49.0x
1.9%
54.1x
58.8x
0.4%
45.3x
1.4%
39.9x
39.3x
0.4%
34.2x
1.6%
27.5x
29.4x
0.5%
23.5x
3.0%
21.7x
22.9x
0.5%
18.7x
3.6%
* For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 9.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research
reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this
report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12. Analyst Certification on page 8. Price
Objective Basis/Risk on page 8.
13026644
Vivek Arya
Research Analyst
BofAS
+1 646 855 1755
vivek.arya@bofa.com
Duksan Jang
Research Analyst
BofAS
duksan.jang@bofa.com
Michael Mani
Research Analyst
BofAS
michael.mani@bofa.com
Liam Pharr
Research Analyst
BofAS
liam.pharr@bofa.com
Stock Data
Price
509.57 USD
Price Objective
650.00 USD
Date Established
13-Aug-2026
Investment Opinion
52-Week Range
Mrkt Val (mn) / Shares Out
C-1-7
203.40 USD - 739.67 USD
404,578 USD / 794.0
(mn)
Free Float
Average Daily Value (mn)
BofA Ticker / Exchange
Bloomberg / Reuters
99.6%
3125.68 USD
AMAT / NAS
AMAT US / AMAT.OQ
ROE (2026E)
41.9%
Net Dbt to Eqty (Oct-2025A)
-9.9%
Glossary on page 6
iQprofile Applied Materials, Inc.
SM
iQmethod SM – Bus Performance*
(US$ Millions)
Return on Capital Employed
Return on Equity
Operating Margin
Free Cash Flow
Company Sector
2024A
29.7%
40.8%
29.1%
7,487
2025A
26.9%
38.6%
30.1%
5,698
2026E
33.2%
41.9%
32.9%
6,275
2027E
33.7%
42.9%
35.4%
12,093
2028E
32.0%
38.2%
36.8%
14,643
Semiconductor Capital Equipment
Company Description
Applied Materials is a supplier of semiconductor and
semiconductor-related fabrication equipment, providing
iQmethod SM – Quality of Earnings*
(US$ Millions)
Cash Realization Ratio
Asset Replacement Ratio
Tax Rate
Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Interest Cover
g technology solutions to the global
2024A
1.2x
3.0x
12.0%
-16.9%
32.1x
2025A
1.0x
5.2x
24.5%
-9.9%
31.8x
2026E
0.9x
4.8x
12.5%
-16.2%
41.3x
2027E
1.0x
3.0x
13.7%
-32.5%
20.9x
2028E
1.0x
3.0x
13.5%
-42.6%
26.3x
semiconductor, flat panel display, and other industries.
Applied's results are primarily driven by worldwide demand
for chips and flat panel displays, which, in turn, depends on
end-user demand for electronic products.
Investment Rationale
Income Statement Data (Oct)
(US$ Millions)
Sales
% Change
Gross Profit
% Change
EBITDA
% Change
Net Interest & Other Income
Net Income (Adjusted)
% Change
We rate AMAT Buy. AMAT is among the largest suppliers of
2024A
27,176
2.5%
12,897
4.1%
8,316
1.0%
265
7,210
6.0%
2025A
28,368
4.4%
13,808
7.1%
8,997
8.2%
140
7,607
5.5%
2026E
34,287
20.9%
17,126
24.0%
11,911
32.4%
119
10,187
33.9%
2027E
46,731
36.3%
23,702
38.4%
17,360
45.7%
260
14,656
43.9%
2028E
56,369
20.6%
28,768
21.4%
21,741
25.2%
260
18,328
25.1%
semiconductor capital equipment due to its broad product
2024A
7,177
392
1,117
(633)
624
(1,190)
7,487
-1.4%
(3,580)
(1,192)
593
2025A
6,998
435
1,718
(29)
(1,164)
(2,260)
5,698
-23.9%
(4,634)
(1,384)
289
2026E
10,346
583
(2,023)
25
127
(2,783)
6,275
10.1%
(1,486)
(1,569)
(101)
2027E
13,732
774
(1,110)
0
1,034
(2,337)
12,093
92.7%
(1,760)
(1,910)
0
2028E
17,404
934
(2,118)
0
1,242
(2,818)
14,643
21.1%
(1,760)
(2,120)
0
Stock Data
portfolio, technical capabilities, and strong service and
support. In our view, the combination of AMAT's scale and
balanced portfolio positions it to be a key beneficiary of
growing demand for all chips in a data-driven economy. We
think AMAT will benefit from an upcyle in DRAM WFE and
leading-edge foundry/logic where it can capture share.
Free Cash Flow Data (Oct)
(US$ Millions)
Net Income from Cont Operations (GAAP)
Depreciation & Amortization
Change in Working Capital
Deferred Taxation Charge
Other Adjustments, Net
Capital Expenditure
Free Cash Flow
% Change
Share / Issue Repurchase
Cost of Dividends Paid
Change in Debt
Balance Sheet Data (Oct)
(US$ Millions)
Cash & Equivalents
Trade Receivables
Other Current Assets
Property, Plant & Equipment
Other Non-Current Assets
Total Assets
Short-Term Debt
Other Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt
Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Total Equity
Total Equity & Liabilities
2024A
9,471
5,234
6,515
3,339
9,850
34,409
799
7,669
5,460
1,480
15,408
19,001
34,409
* For full definitions of iQ method SM measures, see page 9.
2
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
2025A
8,573
5,185
7,123
4,610
10,808
36,299
100
7,899
6,455
1,430
15,884
20,415
36,299
2026E
11,126
7,522
7,870
6,401
12,821
45,741
1,299
8,696
5,245
2,294
17,534
28,207
45,741
2027E
19,550
8,733
8,579
8,738
12,821
58,420
1,299
9,505
5,245
2,294
18,343
40,077
58,420
2028E
30,313
9,662
9,072
11,556
12,821
73,425
1,299
8,810
5,245
2,294
17,648
55,777
73,425
Average Daily Volume
6,186,439
Quarterly Earnings Estimates
2025
2026
Q1
2.38A
2.38A
Q2
2.39A
2.86A
Q3
2.48A
3.50E
Q4
2.17A
4.02E
Exhibits
Exhibit 1: AMAT is outgrowing WFE in CY26, with System sales growing 40% YoY vs. industry growth of 33% YoY. It is also outgrowing other large semi cap
peers, growing an average of +37% YoY.
Major semicap systems sales CY19-28
Semi Systems Sales ($mn)
Applied Materials
ASML
Lam Research
KLA Corporation
Tokyo Electron
Total sales
Sales YoY%
Applied Materials
ASML
Lam Research
KLA Corporation
Tokyo Electron
Total sales
Share of Top 5 Semi Caps
Applied Materials
ASML
Lam Research
KLA Corporation
Tokyo Electron
Total sales
CY19
CY20
CY21
CY22
CY23
CY24
CY25
CY26
CY27
CY28
9,573
10,044
6,295
3,221
6,934
36,067
12,106
12,023
7,968
3,727
8,248
44,072
17,300
15,865
10,974
5,439
12,360
61,939
19,392
16,135
12,387
7,413
12,655
67,982
19,445
23,804
8,322
6,716
9,853
68,141
20,599
23,365
9,584
7,544
11,576
72,667
20,985
28,232
13,378
8,972
11,639
83,205
29,398
38,038
19,461
11,240
15,452
113,589
39,188
50,718
26,796
15,085
25,239
157,025
45,870
64,479
32,257
18,362
32,447
193,414
-4%
4%
-21%
2%
-18%
-8%
26%
20%
27%
16%
19%
22%
43%
32%
38%
46%
50%
41%
12%
2%
13%
36%
2%
10%
0%
48%
-33%
-9%
-22%
0%
6%
-2%
15%
12%
17%
7%
2%
21%
40%
19%
1%
15%
40%
35%
45%
25%
33%
37%
33%
33%
38%
34%
63%
38.2%
17%
27%
20%
22%
29%
23%
27%
28%
17%
9%
19%
100%
27%
27%
18%
8%
19%
100%
28%
26%
18%
9%
20%
100%
29%
24%
18%
11%
19%
100%
29%
35%
12%
10%
14%
100%
28%
32%
13%
10%
16%
100%
25%
34%
16%
11%
14%
100%
26%
33%
17%
10%
14%
100%
25%
32%
17%
10%
16%
100%
24%
33%
17%
9%
17%
100%
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, Gartner, company reports, Visible Alpha
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Exhibit 2: Advanced logic and DRAM WFE (along with associated advanced packaging) should be the
biggest drivers of WFE growth through CY28 which AMAT’s portfolio is well suited for
WFE by device type ($ mn)
300,000
Foundry/Logic
DRAM
NAND
150,000
0
CY19
CY20
CY21
CY22
CY23
CY24
CY25
CY26
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, Gartner, company reports, Visible Alpha
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
3
Exhibit 3: AMAT’s share of WFE is ticking up to 18.9% in CY26
WFE share among major semicaps
30%
20%
Applied Materials
Lam Research
Tokyo Electron
18.3%
Exhibit 4: We think this share gain is driven by a 150bps surge in
foundry/logic share
Foundry/Logic WFE share among major semicaps
ASML
KLA Corporation
19.8% 19.7% 20.3% 19.9% 19.6%
30%
18.0%
Applied Materials
Lam Research
Tokyo Electron
ASML
KLA Corporation
22.2%
18.9%
20%
17.7%
18.5%
20.3% 20.1%
19.9%
18.5%
20.1%
10%
10%
0%
CY19
CY20
CY21
CY22
CY23
CY24
CY25
CY26
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, Gartner, company reports, Visible Alpha
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
0%
CY19
Materials Engineering WFE
90%
34%
41% 39% 39% 37%
Lithography/Track WFE
33% 31% 28% 31% 34% 33% 30% 27%
38% 35% 36% 36% 36% 36% 37% 37%
60%
67% 69%
30% 66% 59% 61% 61% 63%
72% 69%
66% 67% 70%
73%
62% 65% 64% 64% 64% 64% 63% 63%
0%
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, company reports, Gartner
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
4
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
CY21
CY22
CY23
CY24
CY25
CY26
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, Gartner, company reports, Visible Alpha
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Exhibit 5: We believe incremental WFE should continue to favor materials engineering WFE over
litho/track steps which is a tailwind for AMAT share
Materials Engineering WFE (ex-Process Control and Clean) vs. Litho/Track WFE mix
120%
CY20
Exhibit 6: Many of the new tools Applied Materials has released over the last few years have been
focused on advanced packaging and interconnect applications with an emphasis on integration
Recent product releases by Applied Materials since CY24
Year
2024
2024
2025
2025
2025
2026
2026
2026
2026
2026
2026
2026
2026
Product
Area
What It Does
RuCo liner enables copper scaling
Endura Copper Barrier Seed IMS
Interconnect
at 2nm+ while lowering
+ Volta Ruthenium CVD
resistance up to 25%
Lower capacitance dielectric with
Enhanced Black Diamond Low-K
Interconnect / Packaging
improved mechanical strength
First integrated die-to-wafer
Kinex Hybrid Bonding
Advanced Packaging
hybrid bonding platform
Void-free source/drain epitaxy for
Centura Xtera Epi
Logic / GAA
GAA transistors
Advanced eBeam metrology with
PROVision 10
Process Control
sub-nanometer resolution
Brings logic-class strain
Enhanced Centura Prime Epi
DRAM
engineering into DRAM peripheral
transistors
CMP designed specifically for
Opta Quad CMP
Advanced Packaging
hybrid bonding surfaces
High uniformity Cu plating for
Nokota VMax 2 ECD
Advanced Packaging
TSVs and microbumps
Stress-balanced films for ultraProducer Avila 2 PECVD
HBM
thin HBM dies
eBeam metrology for warped
VeritySEM 7AP
Advanced Packaging Metrology
packaging substrates
Defect review and classification
SEMVision G7AP
Advanced Packaging Inspection
for packaging
Advanced nitride deposition for
Centris Spectral SiN ALD
Logic / Memory
complex 3D structures
Selective molybdenum etch for
Producer Selectra Mo Etch
NAND
next-gen wordline structures
Source: Applied Materials
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Exhibit 7: We see potential CY28 EPS power of $27.60-$32.68 for AMAT, 16-38% above consensus
AMAT EPS Power
Units in $bn
CY28 WFE
Share
Systems Revenue
Services
Other
Total
Gross Profit
Gross Margin
Opex
Opex % of sales
Operating Income
Operating Margin
Interest Income/Expense
Pre-Tax Income
Tax Rate
Net Income
pf-EPS
Share Count
Consensus CY28 EPS
Upside (%)
Forward PE Assumption
Implied CY30E Val'n
CY26-28E Sales CAGR
CY26-28E EPS CAGR
AMAT
18.0%
$49.0
$7.9
$1.7
$56.8
$30.7
54.0%
$7.4
13%
$23.3
41.0%
$0.1
$23.4
11.0%
$20.8
$27.50
756
$23.77
15.7%
20.0x
$550
22.0%
37.5%
$272
20.0%
$54.4
$7.9
$1.7
$62.3
$33.6
54.0%
$8.1
13%
$25.5
41.0%
$0.0
$25.5
11.0%
$22.7
$30.05
756
$23.77
26.4%
20.0x
$601
27.7%
43.7%
22.0%
$59.8
$7.9
$1.7
$67.7
$36.6
54.0%
$8.8
13%
$27.8
41.0%
$0.0
$27.8
11.0%
$24.7
$32.68
756
$23.77
37.5%
20.0x
$654
33.2%
49.9%
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, company reports
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
5
Exhibit 8: Multiples across the semicap landscape are in-line with long-term medians despite strong ~30% EPS CAGR ahead, including AMAT
AMAT comps table
Mkt
cap
ASML
Camtek
Nova
Onto Innovation
Axcelis
KLA Corporation
Lam Research
Tokyo Electron
Overall Average
Overall Median
Applied Materials
Applied Materials Consensus
(in mn)
$708,278
$7,024
$11,270
$14,363
$4,122
$257,024
$401,194
$183,976
$404,393
$404,393
P/E
EV/Sales
EV/FCF
Sales YoY (%)
EPS YoY (%)
2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E
41.5x
41.6x
33.3x
36.2x
32.5x
43.5x
41.1x
37.0x
38.3x
39.1x
29.9x
30.5x
26.0x
24.9x
25.3x
31.5x
30.0x
29.1x
28.4x
29.5x
23.1x
25.2x
21.2x
21.0x
16.2x
26.2x
24.6x
22.2x
22.5x
22.7x
35.0x
36.3x
26.2x
25.8x
21.3x
21.0x
Sales
CAGR
EPS
CAGR
PEG
Ratio
CY26-28
CY26-28
11.0x
10.5x
11.2x
8.8x
7.7x
7.4x
3.9x
12.9x
10.5x
7.5x
8.7x
8.2x
9.2x
7.7x
6.4x
6.5x
3.1x
11.1x
9.1x
6.3x
7.4x
7.1x
57.4x
89.9x
48.0x
56.5x
17.7x
54.3x
62.1x
164.5x
68.8x
56.9x
34.5x
28.2x
26.7x
27.1x
28.2x
34.0x
38.0x
58.9x
34.4x
31.1x
28.2x
41.9x
NA
26.1x
NA
29.6x
30.2x
29.3x
30.9x
29.4x
32%
20%
23%
45%
5%
23%
42%
27%
27%
25%
28%
28%
26%
29%
12%
28%
29%
20%
25%
28%
21%
15%
19%
13%
26%
16%
15%
18%
18%
17%
53%
11%
24%
64%
-16%
28%
59%
45%
33%
36%
39%
37%
28%
45%
28%
38%
37%
27%
35%
37%
30%
21%
23%
19%
56%
20%
22%
31%
28%
22%
25%
21%
22%
21%
19%
22%
22%
19%
21%
22%
34%
29%
25%
31%
42%
29%
29%
29%
31%
29%
0.7x
0.9x
0.8x
0.7x
0.4x
0.9x
0.8x
0.8x
0.7x
0.8x
10.5x
10.9x
8.2x
8.3x
6.9x
7.0x
45.7x
57.7x
33.5x
28.7x
26.8x
25.7x
35%
31%
28%
32%
18%
18%
54%
49%
34%
41%
23%
23%
23%
25%
28%
32%
0.8x
0.7x
14.3x
11.3x
9.7x
9.6x
4.3x
16.5x
13.6x
9.0x
CY28
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, company reports
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Glossary
AI: Artificial Intelligence
ALD: Atomic Layer Deposition
AMAT: Applied Materials
BESI: BE Semiconductor Industries
bn: Billion
BofA: Bank of America
BSPDN: Backside Power Delivery Network
bps: Basis Points
CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
CMP: Chemical Mechanical Planarization
Cu: Copper
CY: Calendar Year
CVD: Chemical Vapor Deposition
DRAM: Dynamic Random Access Memory
eBeam: Electron Beam
ECD: Electrochemical Deposition
EPIC: Equipment and Process Innovation and
Materials platform/strategy)
EPS: Earnings Per Share
EV/FCF: Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow
Ex.: Example
FCF: Free Cash Flow
FinFET: Fin Field-Effect Transistor
FY: Fiscal Year
GAA: Gate-All-Around (Transistor Architecture)
HBM: High Bandwidth Memory
IMS: Integrated Materials Solution
KLA: KLA Corporation
LT: Long-Term
LRCX: Lam Research Corporation
6
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
n (Applied
Low-K: Low Dielectric Constant
Mkt Cap: Market Capitalization
mn: Million
Mo: Molybdenum
NAND: Not AND Flash Memory
P/E: Price-to-Earnings Ratio
PECVD: Plasma-Enhanced Chemical Vapor Deposition
PEG Ratio: Price/Earnings-to-Growth Ratio
pf-EPS: Pro Forma Earnings Per Share
ppt: Percentage Points
Ru: Ruthenium
RuCo: Ruthenium-Cobalt
SAM: Served Available Market (or Serviceable Available Market)
SEM: Scanning Electron Microscope
SEMICON: Semiconductor International Conference and Exhibition
SiN: Silicon Nitride
Street: Wall Street Consensus Estimates
TSV: Through-Silicon Via
Val'n: Valuation
Volta: Applied Materials' ruthenium deposition platform
WFE: Wafer Fab Equipment
YoY: Year-over-Year
2nm: 2-Nanometer Process Node
4F2: 4F² DRAM Cell Architecture
6F2: 6F² DRAM Cell Architectur
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
7
Price objective basis & risk
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
Our PO of $650 is based on 27x our CY28E P/E estimate. Our PO basis is near the
middle of AMAT's historical 10-42x trading range justified given the potential for WFE
outgrowth in 2026/27E and remains at a discount to other large peers given more
balanced growth profile and lower profitability.
Downside risks to our PO are: slower-than-expected AI-driven semiconductor capital
spending, delays to leading-edge logic and memory ramps, lower-than-expected
materials engineering intensity at GAA, BSPDN, next-generation DRAM and advanced
packaging nodes, slower adoption of hybrid bonding technologies, failure to realize
expected market share gains across logic, DRAM and advanced packaging, increased
competitive pressure, execution risk around recent product investments and technology
transitions, and macroeconomic, geopolitical or supply-chain headwinds that reduce WFE
spending
Analyst Certification
I, Vivek Arya, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately
reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that no
part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or view expressed in this research report.
US - Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment Coverage Cluster
Investment rating
Company
BofA Ticker
Bloomberg symbol
Analyst
Advanced Energy Industries
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc
Allegro Microsystems
Analog Devices Inc.
Applied Materials, Inc.
Broadcom Inc
Cadence
Camtek
Credo Technology
Diodes Inc.
Intel
IonQ Inc
KLA Corporation
Lam Research Corp.
M/A-Com
Marvell Technology, Inc.
Microchip
Micron Technology, Inc
MKS Instruments
Nova
NVIDIA Corporation
onsemi
Quantinuum
Synopsys
Teradyne
Texas Instruments Inc.
AEIS
AMD
ALGM
ADI
AMAT
AVGO
CDNS
CAMT
CRDO
DIOD
INTC
IONQ
KLAC
LRCX
MTSI
MRVL
MCHP
MU
MKSI
NVMI
NVDA
ON
QNT
SNPS
TER
TXN
AEIS US
AMD US
ALGM US
ADI US
AMAT US
AVGO US
CDNS US
CAMT US
CRDO US
DIOD US
INTC US
IONQ US
KLAC US
LRCX US
MTSI US
MRVL US
MCHP US
MU US
MKSI US
NVMI US
NVDA US
ON US
QNT US
SNPS US
TER US
TXN US
Duksan Jang
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Michael Mani
Vivek Arya
Michael Mani
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Michael Mani
Michael Mani
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Ambarella
Ambiq Micro, Inc.
Arm Holdings
Astera Labs Inc
Coherent Corp
Lumentum Holdings
NXP Semiconductors NV
AMBA
AMBQ
ARM
ALAB
COHR
LITE
NXPI
AMBA US
AMBQ US
ARM US
ALAB US
COHR US
LITE US
NXPI US
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
BUY
NEUTRAL
8
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
US - Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment Coverage Cluster
Investment rating
Company
BofA Ticker
Bloomberg symbol
Analyst
Axcelis Technologies
GlobalFoundries
Lattice Semiconductor
Qualcomm
Skyworks Solutions, Inc.
ACLS
GFS
LSCC
QCOM
SWKS
ACLS US
GFS US
LSCC US
QCOM US
SWKS US
Duksan Jang
Vivek Arya
Duksan Jang
Vivek Arya
Vivek Arya
Wolfspeed Inc
WOLF
WOLF US
Vivek Arya
UNDERPERFORM
RVW
iQmethod SM Measures Definitions
Business Performance
Return On Capital Employed
Numerator
NOPAT = (EBIT + Interest Income) × (1 − Tax Rate) + Goodwill Amortization
Return On Equity
Operating Margin
Earnings Growth
Free Cash Flow
Net Income
Operating Profit
Expected 5 Year CAGR From Latest Actual
Cash Flow From Operations − Total Capex
Denominator
Total Assets − Current Liabilities + ST Debt + Accumulated Goodwill
Amortization
Shareholders’ Equity
Sales
N/A
N/A
Quality of Earnings
Cash Realization Ratio
Asset Replacement Ratio
Tax Rate
Net Debt-To-Equity Ratio
Interest Cover
Numerator
Cash Flow From Operations
Capex
Tax Charge
Net Debt = Total Debt − Cash & Equivalents
EBIT
Denominator
Net Income
Depreciation
Pre-Tax Income
Total Equity
Interest Expense
Valuation Toolkit
Price / Earnings Ratio
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield
Free Cash Flow Yield
Enterprise Value / Sales
Numerator
Current Share Price
Current Share Price
Annualised Declared Cash Dividend
Cash Flow From Operations − Total Capex
EV = Current Share Price × Current Shares + Minority Equity + Net Debt +
Other LT Liabilities
Enterprise Value
Denominator
Diluted Earnings Per Share (Basis As Specified)
Shareholders’ Equity / Current Basic Shares
Current Share Price
Market Cap = Current Share Price × Current Basic Shares
Sales
EV / EBITDA
Basic EBIT + Depreciation + Amortization
iQ method SMis the set of BofA Global Research standard measures that serve to maintain global consistency under three broad headings: Business Performance, Quality of Earnings, and validations. The key features of
iQmethod are: A consistently structured, detailed, and transparent methodology. Guidelines to maximize the effectiveness of the comparative valuation process, and to identify some common pitfalls.
iQ database ® is our real-time global research database that is sourced directly from our equity analysts’ earnings models and includes forecasted as well as historical data for income statements, balance sheets, and cash
flow statements for companies covered by BofA Global Research.
iQ profile SM, iQ method SM are service marks of Bank of America Corporation. iQ database ® is a registered service mark of Bank of America Corporation.
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
9
Disclosures
Important Disclosures
Applied Materials (AMAT) Price Chart
The Investment Opinion System is contained at the end of the report under the heading "Fundamental Equity Opinion Key". Dark grey shading indicates the security is restricted with the opinion suspended. Medium grey
shading indicates the security is under review with the opinion withdrawn. Light grey shading indicates the security is not covered. Chart is current as of a date no more than one trading day prior to the date of the
report.
Equity Investment Rating Distribution: Technology Group (as of 30 Sep 2026)
Coverage Universe
Count
Percent
Buy
255
62.04%
Hold
82
19.95%
Sell
74
18.00%
Equity Investment Rating Distribution: Global Group (as of 30 Sep 2026)
Inv. Banking Relationships R1
Buy
Hold
Sell
Count
157
46
31
Percent
61.57%
56.10%
41.89%
Coverage Universe
Buy
Hold
Sell
Inv. Banking Relationships R1
Buy
Hold
Sell
Count
1386
563
446
Percent
67.38%
69.85%
59.95%
Count
2057
806
744
Percent
57.03%
22.35%
20.63%
Issuers that were investment banking clients of BofA Securities or one of its affiliates within the past 12 months. For purposes of this Investment Rating Distribution, the coverage universe includes only stocks. A stock
rated Neutral is included as a Hold, and a stock rated Underperform is included as a Sell.
R1
FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY OPINION KEY: Opinions include a Volatility Risk Rating, an Investment Rating and an Income Rating. VOLATILITY RISK RATINGS, indicators
of potential price fluctuation, are: A - Low, B - Medium and C - High. INVESTMENT RATINGS reflect the analyst’s assessment of both a stock’s absolute total return
potential as well as its attractiveness for investment relative to other stocks within its Coverage Cluster (defined below). Our investment ratings are: 1 - Buy stocks
are expected to have a total return of at least 10% and are the most attractive stocks in the coverage cluster; 2 - Neutral stocks are expected to remain flat or
increase in value and are less attractive than Buy rated stocks and 3 - Underperform stocks are the least attractive stocks in a coverage cluster. An investment
rating of 6 (No Rating) indicates that a stock is no longer trading on the basis of fundamentals. Analysts assign investment ratings considering, among other things,
the 0-12 month total return expectation for a stock and the firm’s guidelines for ratings dispersions (shown in the table below). The current price objective for a
stock should be referenced to better understand the total return expectation at any given time. The price objective reflects the analyst’s view of the potential price
appreciation (depreciation).
Investment rating
Total return expectation (within 12-month period of date of initial
rating)
Ratings dispersion guidelines for coverage clusterR2
Buy
≥ 10%
≤ 70%
Neutral
≥ 0%
≤ 30%
Underperform
N/A
≥ 20%
R2
Ratings dispersions may vary from time to time where BofA Global Research believes it better reflects the investment prospects of stocks in a Coverage Cluster.
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secure) and 9 - pays no cash dividend. Coverage Cluster is comprised of stocks covered by a single analyst or two or more analysts sharing a common industry,
sector, region or other classification(s). A stock’s coverage cluster is included in the most recent BofA Global Research report referencing the stock.
Price Charts for the securities referenced in this research report are available on the Price Charts website, or call 1-800-MERRILL to have them mailed.
BofAS or one of its affiliates acts as a market maker for the equity securities recommended in the report: Applied Materials.
The issuer is or was, within the last 12 months, an investment banking client of BofAS and/or one or more of its affiliates: Applied Materials.
BofAS or an affiliate has received compensation from the issuer for non-investment banking services or products within the past 12 months: Applied Materials.
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BofAS or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the past 12 months: Applied Materials.
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ownership position on the last day of the previous month. Reports issued before the 9th day of a month reflect the ownership position at the end of the second month preceding the date of
the report: Applied Materials.
BofAS or one of its affiliates is willing to sell to, or buy from, clients the common equity of the issuer on a principal basis: Applied Materials.
10
Applied Materials, Inc. | 09 October 2026
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