大摩维持世芯-KY（Alchip, 3661.TW）Overweight、目标价NT$5,888，看好Trainium3/4放量及年底前新美国客户

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Update

October 11, 2026 06:34 PM GMT

Alchip Technologies Ltd | Asia Pacific

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Charlie Chan
Equity Analyst

Solid 2027 and 2028 outlook
with potential catalysts; OW

Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-1725

Daniel Yen, CFA
Equity Analyst
Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2863

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Daisy Dai, CFA

Key Takeaways

Equity Analyst
Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com

+852 2848-7310

2027 Trainium3 revenue could exceed 70% YoY growth, with margins remaining

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

sustainable.

Lucas Wang
Equity Analyst

2028 Trainium4 revenue tracking bullish MSe US$8bn and could exceed it.

Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com

Alchip is close to securing a new US customer before year-end.

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Keep Alchip PT of NT5,888. Catalysts: 1) new US customer win; 2) AWS re:invent
on 11/30; 3) 2028 Trainium4 TAM and allocation confirmation.

+886 2 2730-2875

Henry Zhao
Equity Analyst
Henry.Zhao@morganstanley.com

+852 2239-7731

Ethan Jia

What's new? Ahead of Alchip's 3Q26 earnings release on November 6, investors are

Research Associate
Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com

+852 3963-2287

looking for updates on the company's 2027 and 2028 revenue outlook, particularly
regarding AWS Trainium programmes and potential new customer wins.

Alchip Technologies Ltd (3661.TW, 3661 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan

Major projects – AWS Trainium: It appears TSMC is allocating additional 3nm
capacity to AI ASICs and CPUs in 2027. We do not rule out AWS-related revenue
growing more than 70% YoY in 2027, versus our current forecast of 56% YoY
growth. As a result, we remain confident in our 2027 revenue forecast of US$4.4bn.

Stock Rating
Industry View
Price target
Up/downside to price target (%)
Shr price, close (Oct 8, 2026)
52-Week Range

We believe gross margin can remain sustainable despite the additional revenue
contribution, which would be better than our previous assumption of fixed gross
profit from 3nm Trainium3. For 2028, we forecast a Street-high US$8bn revenue
contribution from 2nm Trainium4. Our supply-chain checks suggest US$8bn–12bn of
revenue is possible if AWS allocates additional volume.
Potential new projects - Google KGD and others: In Asia-Pacific Technology: AI
Supply Chain: Google ASIC, who gets what for design services? (24 Aug 2026), we
highlighted key trends for Google TPU v10, including: "KGD (known good die) for the
compute die, which means Google owns the compute-die design and photomask
tools, while retaining flexibility to outsource backend design services for the

Mkt cap, curr (mn)
Avg daily trading value (mn)

Overweight
Attractive
NT$5,888.00
36
NT$4,345.00
NT$5,640.002,480.00
NT$352,568
NT$8,261

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS (NT$)**
Prior EPS (NT$)**
EPS (NT$)§
Revenue, net (NT$ mn)
P/E

67.68 176.72 225.82 363.29
65.78 141.48 187.91 262.18
30,926 94,550 135,780 303,800
51.9
24.6
19.2
12.0

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare
framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

compute die." We believe Alchip is a leading candidate for this KGD backend-design
opportunity. In addition, Alchip is pursuing another US HPC customer opportunity.
Our checks suggest a switch-networking product is a possibility, potentially
involving collaboration with Astera Labs and NVLink Fusion.

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companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
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Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley
Research as only a single factor in making their investment
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For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this
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Exhibit 1:

Alchip 2027 and 2028 revenue forecast by key customer

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley research estimates

2

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Valuation Methodology and Risks
Alchip Technologies Ltd (3661.TW)
Base case value, derived from a residual income model. We assume the cost of equity is constant at 10.4% (2% risk-free rate, 6% risk premium, 1.4 beta). Our intermediate growth rate and
terminal growth rates are 12.5% and 4%, respectively.
Risks to Upside
n Demand for Chinese GPUs and AI chipsets takes off earlier than expected.
n NRE demand accelerates.
n Alchip wins more US hyperscaler HPC projects.

Risks to Downside
n China's HPC localization progress slows down.
n AI chipset progress is much slower to develop.
n NRE demand decelerates.
n Pricing competition intensifies.

Morgan Stanley Research

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Inc, Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc, Advanced Wireless Semiconductor Co, Alchip Technologies Ltd, AllRing Tech Co., AP Memory Technology Corp, ASE Technology Holding Co.
Ltd., ASMedia Technology Inc, ASMPT Ltd, Aspeed Technology, Cambricon Technology Corporation, eMemory Technology Inc, GigaDevice Semiconductor Beijing Inc, GlobalWafers Co Ltd,
Gudeng Precision, Macronix International Co Ltd, Montage Technology Co Ltd, NAURA Technology Group Co Ltd, Novatek, Parade Technologies Ltd, Phison Electronics Corp, Powerchip
Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, SG Micro Corp., Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics, SICC Co Ltd, Silergy Corp., Silicon Motion, StarPower Semiconductor Ltd, TSMC, UMC, Vanguard
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Macronix International Co Ltd, MediaTek, MetaX Integrated Circuits, Montage Technology Co Ltd, Novatek, Phison Electronics Corp, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, Realtek
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Coverage Universe
Stock Rating

Other Material Investment Services

Investment Banking Clients (IBC)

Clients (MISC)

% of Rating

% of Total

Count

% of Total IBC

Overweight/Buy

1599

43%

455

48%

28%

783

44%

Equal-weight/Hold

1563

42%

394

42%

25%

763

43%

Category

Count

% of Total Other

Count

Category

MISC

Not-Rated/Hold

2

0%

1

0%

50%

1

0%

Underweight/Sell

570

15%

96

10%

17%

227

13%

Total

3,734

946

1774

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Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History (See Rating Definitions)

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INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Semiconductors
Company (Ticker)

Rating (As Of)

Price* (10/09/2026)

Charlie Chan
Advanced Wireless Semiconductor Co (8086.TWO)

U (07/14/2025)

NT$154.00

Alchip Technologies Ltd (3661.TW)

O (05/14/2021)

NT$4,345.00

ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. (3711.TW)

O (09/15/2024)

NT$744.00

Cambricon Technology Corporation (688256.SS)

O (04/27/2026)

Rmb985.99

CXMT Corp (688825.SS)

O (08/26/2026)

Rmb51.00

Global Unichip Corp (3443.TW)

O (06/24/2026)

NT$8,360.00

GlobalWafers Co Ltd (6488.TWO)

E (05/19/2026)

NT$1,130.00

Gudeng Precision (3680.TWO)

O (11/25/2025)

NT$571.00

Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd (1347.HK)

E (03/12/2026)

HK$94.55

Iluvatar CoreX Semiconductor Co., Ltd. (9903.HK)

O (04/27/2026)

HK$88.30

MediaTek (2454.TW)

O (11/28/2025)

NT$4,690.00

MetaX Integrated Circuits (688802.SS)

E (04/27/2026)

Rmb464.08

Nanya Technology Corp. (2408.TW)

O (05/28/2026)

NT$532.00

OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group Inc (603501.SS)

E (11/17/2025)

Rmb79.15

Phison Electronics Corp (8299.TWO)

E (02/25/2026)

NT$2,060.00

SG Micro Corp. (300661.SZ)

E (11/03/2025)

Rmb95.97

Silergy Corp. (6415.TW)

U (05/19/2026)

NT$462.50

SMIC (0981.HK)

O (10/21/2025)

HK$57.65

TSMC (2330.TW)

O (02/07/2022)

NT$2,550.00

UMC (2303.TW)

O (05/19/2026)

NT$147.50

Vanguard International Semiconductor (5347.TWO)

E (01/14/2026)

NT$186.50

WIN Semiconductors Corp (3105.TWO)

E (10/09/2026)

NT$581.00

Daisy Dai, CFA

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ASMPT Ltd (0522.HK)

O (07/24/2025)

HK$161.30

China Resources Microelectronics Limited (688396.SS)

U (03/02/2026)

Rmb51.90

Empyrean Technology Co Ltd (301269.SZ)

E (01/17/2025)

Rmb92.25

Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co. Ltd. (600460.SS)

U (08/25/2025)

Rmb29.09

Hygon Information Technology Co., Ltd. (688041.SS)

O (07/03/2026)

Rmb219.59

Innoscience (2577.HK)

E (10/13/2025)

HK$36.74

JCET Group Co Ltd (600584.SS)

O (09/16/2026)

Rmb62.74

Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics (1385.HK)

O (03/07/2025)

HK$24.00

SICC Co Ltd (688234.SS)

O (03/20/2026)

Rmb97.54

SJ Semiconductor Corp (688820.SS)

E (09/16/2026)

Rmb111.55

StarPower Semiconductor Ltd (603290.SS)

E (05/14/2026)

Rmb76.25

Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co Ltd (002049.SZ)

U (01/10/2023)

Rmb56.59

Universal Scientific Ind. (Shanghai) (601231.SS)

O (11/05/2025)

Rmb22.63

Yangjie Technology (300373.SZ)

O (06/10/2022)

Rmb83.48

Daniel Yen, CFA
AP Memory Technology Corp (6531.TW)

O (07/11/2025)

NT$980.00

ASMedia Technology Inc (5269.TW)

U (10/03/2025)

NT$1,490.00

Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO)

O (06/09/2025)

NT$17,485.00

Egis Technology Inc (6462.TWO)

E (01/28/2026)

NT$100.50

Elan Microelectronics Corp (2458.TW)

O (10/03/2025)

NT$132.00

eMemory Technology Inc (3529.TWO)

O (08/18/2026)

NT$2,915.00

Espressif Systems (688018.SS)

O (05/15/2023)

Rmb116.90

GigaDevice Semiconductor Beijing Inc (603986.SS)

O (05/15/2025)

Rmb326.46

Macronix International Co Ltd (2337.TW)

O (09/18/2025)

NT$116.00

Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809.HK)

O (03/18/2026)

HK$268.20

Montage Technology Co Ltd (688008.SS)

O (03/18/2026)

Rmb197.60

Novatek (3034.TW)

U (02/04/2026)

NT$531.00

Nuvoton Technology Corporation (4919.TW)

U (11/10/2025)

NT$155.50

Parade Technologies Ltd (4966.TWO)

O (05/27/2026)

NT$558.00

Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (6770.TW)

O (10/27/2025)

NT$72.20

Realtek Semiconductor (2379.TW)

E (01/30/2026)

NT$749.00

Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co Ltd (603160.SS)

U (07/14/2025)

Rmb51.95

Winbond Electronics Corp (2344.TW)

O (05/28/2026)

NT$177.00

WPG Holdings (3702.TW)

O (03/16/2026)

NT$117.50

WT Microelectronics Co. Ltd. (3036.TW)

O (01/27/2026)

NT$215.50

Dosilicon Co Ltd (688110.SS)

U (09/06/2024)

Rmb104.38

Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co Ltd (301308.SZ)

E (02/25/2026)

Rmb284.00

Duan Liu

Henry Zhao
ACM Research Inc (ACMR.O)

O (03/07/2023)

US$71.37

Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc (688012.SS)

O (11/06/2023)

Rmb311.00

Maxscend Microelectronics Co Ltd (300782.SZ)

U (01/11/2021)

Rmb62.42

NAURA Technology Group Co Ltd (002371.SZ)

O (11/06/2023)

Rmb594.04

AllRing Tech Co. (6187.TWO)

O (09/23/2025)

NT$1,525.00

FOCI Fiber Optic Communications Inc (3363.TWO)

E (10/09/2026)

NT$667.00

Hon Precision (7769.TW)

O (04/17/2026)

NT$5,925.00

King Yuan Electronics Co Ltd (2449.TW)

O (03/03/2023)

NT$304.50

MPI Corporation (6223.TWO)

O (04/17/2026)

NT$5,575.00

Lucas Wang

Tiffany Yeh
Himax Technologies Inc (HIMX.O)

E (02/04/2026)

US$13.30

Silicon Motion (SIMO.O)

O (05/06/2024)

US$263.90

WinWay Technology Co Ltd (6515.TW)

O (04/17/2026)

NT$5,615.00

Stock Ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company.

Morgan Stanley Research

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* Historical prices are not split adjusted.

© 2026 Morgan Stanley

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