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摩根士丹利Doubao · 实盘不做把握 6/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 12:08:34·⟳ 抓取 14:46:11·⚡ 决策 10-13 15:00:43 +14m32s·14.0 天前

大摩点评Vicor对台达电等20家实体发起的USITC 337调查:短期影响可控,维持超配

这是卖方对4天前(10月9日)已公开的ITC立案的点评,非新增事实;事件本身为轻度负面但仅立案、无裁定、争议收入占比高个位数且大摩判断可控并维持超配,做空催化不强;反向做多与事件利空方向相悖;同案工业富联已大跌显示消息在中港台市场已传播定价,风险收益不对称

📄 原文摩根士丹利↗ 原文
Delta Electronics Inc.: Our Thoughts on USITC Investigation No. 337
Downloaded by jefferson.sun@goldhorse.com.hk Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley M Update…
不做 台达电子(2308.TW)
大摩报告是对10月9日已立案、10月12日已扩散(同案工业富联已大跌)的337调查的卖方跟进,无新增事实;仅立案无侵权裁定、敞口高个位数收入且大行判断可控,做空催化不足;逆利空做多又无事件edge,风险收益不对称。行情工具本轮故障无法核验台股10月12日实际跌幅,不给条件单
不做 Vicor Corporation(VICR.US)
原告立案仅为程序性进展、离裁定遥远,IP授权本就是其长期商业模式,难以形成短线业绩增量;且美股当前为盘前时段,不具可执行性
不做 工业富联(601138.SH)
同一337调查10月11日已由公司公告且股价当日大跌,利空已被定价,追空为旧闻;无任何利好反转证据,也不支持左侧做多
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

Vicor诉台达电等20家实体的337调查10月9日已立案、10月12日经Vicor通稿与中文媒体扩散(工业富联同案已大跌),大摩点评称高个位数收入敞口、影响可控并维持OW。仅立案无侵权裁定、离出结果尚远,既不够强空也不支持逆利空做多,回避。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-09 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-10-09官方立案USITC一手源原文 ↗
    USITC正式对337-TA-1526垂直供电系统337调查立案,被诉方含台达电等20家实体,此为本催化首发事实节点
  2. 2026-10-12公司通稿扩散Vicor / GlobeNewswire一手源原文 ↗
    Vicor发通稿宣传立案,消息进入英文财经传播链
  3. 2026-10-12 01:01 GMT卖方解读Morgan Stanley一手源原文 ↗
    大摩发快评称影响可控(争议产品占2026收入高个位数)、维持OW与NT$2,500目标价
  4. 2026-10-12 21:02 +08:00中文媒体扩散与市场反应金融界(今日头条转载)非一手原文 ↗
    同案被诉的工业富联10月11日公告后股价大跌,显示同一调查在A股已引发实质重定价

关键理由

  • 做空不成立:调查处于最早期立案阶段、无侵权认定,争议产品仅占台达2026收入高个位数,大摩明确判断影响可控,平行案目标完成在2027年9月,短期无强制救济落地
  • 做多无事件edge:报告维持OW/NT$2,500目标价是12-18个月基本面观点,本条新增信息(ITC立案)方向为负面,且同案工业富联10月11-12日已因该调查显著下跌,板块层面冲击正在被定价

主要风险

  • 若ITC后续如337-TA-1370案一样认定侵权并签发LEO/CDO,台达HPC垂直供电产品对美出货可能实质受限,届时负面预期差将显著放大
  • 台达电10月12日台股可能已提前反应但本轮行情工具故障无法核验跌幅,若跌幅有限则做空窗口仍在,结论存在不确定性

反向证据

  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-12 · 影响 weakens
    双方2023年系列诉讼已于2025年5月集中和解、带偏见驳回,历史以商业和解收场;大摩维持OW并称影响可控,削弱强空逻辑
    检索:台达电 Vicor ITC 和解 授权 settlement license 2025
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 report · 日期 2026-10-12 · 影响 weakens
    大摩模型预计台达2025-28 EPS CAGR 63%、目标价隐含27%上行,AI电源基本面趋势强劲,立案早期做空面临强基本面逆风
    检索:台达电 2026 业绩 AI电源 订单 指引 上修
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-12 · 影响 invalidates
    同案工业富联在立案消息后大跌,且前案337-TA-1370确有LEO签发先例,证明尾部风险真实,不能把利空当买点
    检索:337调查 台达 工业富联 股价 大跌 排除令 风险

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例与同案反应共同支持回避:做空面对的是已传播4天的早期立案且历史上走向和解,做多则逆事件方向

方向:未用价格先例定量;已知上一轮337-TA-1370于2025年2月被认定部分侵权并签发LEO/CDO,但台达相关多地法院诉讼2025年5月即和解,最终商业影响有限,与大摩‘可控’判断方向一致

涨幅量级:本轮无合格对齐先例面板(未取到台达电及同业在前案立案/裁定日的真实日线),不足以校准tp/sl,故不出交易腿

形态:同案工业富联在立案消息后A股大跌,提示337调查短线确有情绪冲击,但该冲击在10月11-12日已发生,属已消化信息

工具执行结果 · 成功 3 · 降级 0 · 失败 1 · 取消 0
  1. search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 10 ms
    {"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`delta electronics section 337 exclusion order october 2026 | vicor delta usitc 337 investigation vertical power delivery patent 10,903,734 | 台達電 2308 itc 337-ta-1526 vicor 侵權調查`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent qu
  2. stock_quote 失败 stock_tools HTTP · 9 ms
    行情服务暂不可用;本次无法核验该标的价格和可执行条件。请基于其余证据继续判断并明确标注行情降级;不得仅因工具故障自动给出 AVOID 或 ENTER,也不得编造价位。
  3. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,506 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Vicor ITC Section 337 investigation Delta vertical power delivery patent instituted October 9 2026;API SearchType:web)
  4. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,755 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Vicor VICR ITC investigation Delta stock reaction February 2025 exclusion order power converters;API SearchType:web)

原文全文

展开原文 · 46,628 字
Downloaded by jefferson.sun@goldhorse.com.hk

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

October 12, 2026 01:01 AM GMT

Delta Electronics Inc. | Asia Pacific

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Derrick Yang
Equity Analyst

Our Thoughts on USITC
Investigation No. 337

Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2862

Vivi Huang
Research Associate
Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2860

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Andy Meng, CFA

The near-term impact should be manageable, but we'll closely
monitor developments on this matter.
What's new:
• The US International Trade Commission (USITC) formally launched a patent
infringement investigation on October 9, 2026, following a complaint by
Vicor Corporation, a US-based power electronics company, against 20
entities, including Delta and others across the power supply, server assembly
and semiconductor space.
• Vicor alleges that certain imported vertical power delivery systems (used
mostly in HPC chips) have infringed US Patent 10,903,734.
• Vicor requested two types of remedy: 1) a Limited Exclusion Order (LEO);
and 2) Cease and Desist Orders (CDOs), which could restrict US imports and
sales of infringing products if granted.
Our view:
• We note that this is not the first time Delta and Vicor have had legal
disputes over patent infringement.
• We will closely monitor any developments in this matter, though we think
the impact on Delta's operations should be manageable (the products in
dispute account for high single digit % of its total revenue for 2026, based
on our estimates).
• We remain OW.

Equity Analyst
Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com

+852 2239-7689

Delta Electronics Inc. (2308.TW, 2308 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
Stock Rating
Industry View
Price target
Up/downside to price target (%)
Shr price, close (Oct 8, 2026)
52-Week Range
Sh out, dil, curr (mn)
Mkt cap, curr (mn)
EV, curr (mn)
Avg daily trading value (mn)

Overweight
In-Line
NT$2,500.00
27
NT$1,965.00
NT$2,585.00-886.00
2,598
US$159,810
US$158,149
US$615

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS (NT$)**
Prior EPS (NT$)**
EPS (NT$)§
Revenue, net (NT$ bn)
EBITDA (NT$ bn)
ModelWare net inc (NT
$ bn)
P/E
P/BV
RNOA (%)
ROE (%)
EV/EBITDA
Div yld (%)
FCF yld ratio (%)**
Leverage (EOP) (%)

23.14
23.91
554.9
111.8
60.1

39.77 64.77 100.77
40.39 64.11 99.50
775.2 1,131.9 1,659.5
169.2 267.5 404.0
103.3 168.2 261.7

41.6
7.1
27.3
21.5
20.1
0.8
2.1
(41.9)

49.4
11.8
42.2
31.7
29.4
0.6
0.9
(51.7)

30.3
9.1
70.3
42.2
18.3
1.0
2.1
(57.8)

19.5
6.8
101.3
50.8
11.7
1.7
4.0
(64.0)

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare
framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley
Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley
Research as only a single factor in making their investment
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For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this
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+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered
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and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on
communications with a subject company, public appearances
and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

M

Update

Key Table
Exhibit 1:

Historical litigation between Vicor and Delta

Filing date

Plaintiff(s) / Defendant(s) / Case Number

Reason for Filing
Latest Progress
Patent infringement: US 6,930,893;
Settled; dismissed with prejudice (May 13,
2023-07-12 Vicor v. Delta et al. | E.D. Tex., 2:23-cv-00323
9,166,481; 9,516,761; 10,199,950.
2025).
Vicor v. Delta, Cyntec, Foxconn, Quanta et al. | ITC import complaint: US 9,166,481;
Closed (Feb 13, 2025); partial infringement
2023-07-12
ITC 337-TA-1370
9,516,761; 10,199,950.
finding; LEO/CDOs issued.
Patent infringement: US 9,819,263 (power
Settled; dismissed with prejudice (May 7,
2023-10-23 Delta v. Vicor | W.D. Tex., 6:23-cv-00726
converters).
2025).
Patent infringement: US 8,711,580 and
Settled; dismissed with prejudice (May 8,
2023-11-01 Delta v. Vicor | D. Del., 1:23-cv-01246
10,877,534.
2025).
Delta v. Vicor | China patent case (number
Patent infringement: CN 106571354 B (power2024-01-02
Final case disposition not confirmed.
unverified)
converter manufacturing).
Section 1782 evidence request for China
Jan 10, 2025: main discovery request denied;
2024-01-26 Delta (applicant) / Vicor | D. Del., 1:24-cv-00107
patent litigation.
limited relief granted.
Patent infringement: US 12,395,087 (busStayed (Feb 24, 2026) pending ITC 337-TA2026-01-09 Vicor v. Delta | E.D. Tex., 2:26-cv-00017
converter design).
1484.
ITC import complaint: US 12,395,087 (power Ongoing; instituted Feb 11, 2026 (published
2026-01-12 Vicor v. Delta et al. | ITC 337-TA-1484
modules and servers).
Feb 17); target completion Sep 20, 2027.
Alleged trade-secret misuse and interference
2026-07-23 Delta v. Vicor | W.D. Tex., 1:26-cv-02057
Ongoing; no merits ruling reported.
with business relations.
Patent infringement: US 10,845,853
2026-07-24 Delta Shanghai v. Vicor | D. Del., 1:26-cv-00913
Ongoing; no final infringement ruling reported.
(processor-board power delivery).
Patent infringement: US 11,923,772 (DC/DC Pending; Vicor moved to dismiss or transfer
2026-07-31 Delta v. Vicor | W.D. Tex., 7:26-cv-00288
converters).
(Sep 28, 2026).
Vicor v. Delta, Infineon et al. | E.D. Tex., 2:26-cv- Patent infringement: US 10,903,734 (vertical
2026-09-08
Ongoing; early stage, no infringement finding.
00796
power delivery).
Section 1782 evidence request for overseas
2026-09-08 Delta (applicant) / Vicor | D. Del., 1:26-cv-01135
Pending; no final order confirmed.
proceedings.
ITC import complaint: US 10,903,734 (vertical
2026-09-09 Vicor v. Delta et al. | ITC 337-TA-1526
Instituted (Oct 9, 2026); no final ruling.
power delivery).
Source: US Federal Court, US International Trade Commission (ITC), USPTO/PTAB filings, Company data, Morgan Stanley research

2

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Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks
Delta Electronics Inc. (2308.TW)
Base case: P/E multiple of 30x based on average 2027-28 EPS. We believe our target multiple
is justified by the 63% earnings CAGR we estimate for 2025-28, implying a PEG of 0.5, versus
the stock's ~23x P/E and 23% earnings CAGR during 2022-25, which implied a PEG of 1.0.
Risks to Upside
n Faster-than-expected global economic growth
n Falling raw material prices
n Margin improvement

Risks to Downside
n Global economic slowdown
n Ongoing component supply tightness
n Rising raw material prices
n Margin contraction as a result of higher operating expenses or faster ASP erosion

Morgan Stanley Research

3

M

Update

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(as of September 30, 2026)
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Coverage Universe
Stock Rating

Other Material Investment Services

Investment Banking Clients (IBC)

Clients (MISC)

% of Rating

% of Total

Count

% of Total IBC

Overweight/Buy

1599

43%

455

48%

28%

783

44%

Equal-weight/Hold

1563

42%

394

42%

25%

763

43%

Category

Count

% of Total Other

Count

Category

MISC

Not-Rated/Hold

2

0%

1

0%

50%

1

0%

Underweight/Sell

570

15%

96

10%

17%

227

13%

Total

3,734

946

1774

Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley received investment banking compensation in the
last 12 months. Due to rounding off of decimals, the percentages provided in the "% of total" column may not add up to exactly 100 percent.

Analyst Stock Ratings
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12-18 months.
Equal-weight (E). The stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over
the next 12-18 months.
Not-Rated (NR). Currently the analyst does not have adequate conviction about the stock's total return relative to the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage
universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Underweight (U). The stock's total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next
12-18 months.
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below.
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Cautious (C): The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months with caution vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.
Benchmarks for each region are as follows: North America - S&P 500; Latin America - relevant MSCI country index or MSCI Latin America Index; Europe - MSCI Europe; Japan - TOPIX; Asia relevant MSCI country index or MSCI sub-regional index or MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index.

Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History (See Rating Definitions)

Morgan Stanley Research

5

M

Update

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INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Hardware
Company (Ticker)

Rating (As Of)

Price* (10/09/2026)

Andy Meng, CFA

8

AAC Technologies Holdings (2018.HK)

O (01/29/2024)

HK$37.36

Accelink Technologies Co. Ltd. (002281.SZ)

U (05/12/2022)

Rmb148.71

BYD Electronics (0285.HK)

O (04/28/2023)

HK$23.16

China TransInfo Technology Co Ltd (002373.SZ)

E (07/18/2023)

Rmb7.40

Dahua Technology Co. Ltd. (002236.SZ)

E (12/12/2024)

Rmb15.46

Eoptolink Technology Inc Ltd (300502.SZ)

O (02/27/2026)

Rmb370.20

Genius Electronic Optical Co. Ltd. (3406.TW)

U (09/10/2026)

NT$1,060.00

GoerTek Inc (002241.SZ)

E (08/14/2026)

Rmb21.51

Gosuncn Technology Group Co Ltd (300098.SZ)

U (11/07/2022)

Rmb4.20

HIKVision Digital Technology (002415.SZ)

E (12/12/2024)

Rmb32.97

Largan Precision (3008.TW)

E (09/10/2026)

NT$6,660.00

LianChuang Electronic Technology Co Ltd (002036.SZ)

U (06/12/2024)

Rmb5.90

Lingyi Itech Guangdong Co (002600.SZ)

U (04/23/2025)

Rmb11.15

Lingyi Itech Guangdong Co (1688.HK)

O (08/14/2026)

HK$5.05

Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (2475.HK)

O (08/14/2026)

HK$50.55

Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (002475.SZ)

O (10/24/2016)

Rmb47.59

OFILM Group Co Ltd (002456.SZ)

U (06/12/2024)

Rmb6.46

Q Technology (Group) Company Ltd (1478.HK)

U (03/23/2026)

HK$4.90

Quectel Wireless Solutions Co Ltd (603236.SS)

E (10/09/2024)

Rmb72.20

Shanghai Conant Optical Co Ltd (2276.HK)

O (04/10/2026)

HK$35.60

Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co Ltd (688036.SS)

E (03/23/2026)

Rmb48.95

Sunny Optical (2382.HK)

E (03/23/2026)

HK$60.50

Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co Ltd. (300394.SZ)

E (11/06/2025)

Rmb235.04

M

Update

Wingtech Technology Co Ltd (600745.SS)

U (05/18/2026)

Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK)

O (04/14/2021)

Rmb15.64
HK$25.96

Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (601869.SS)

U (10/13/2021)

Rmb387.87

Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (6869.HK)

O (07/15/2026)

HK$168.30

Yongxin Optics Co Ltd (603297.SS)

E (11/15/2022)

Rmb98.38

Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co Ltd (002273.SZ)

O (11/15/2022)

Rmb22.37

Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (300308.SZ)

O (09/07/2026)

Rmb775.29

Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (3308.HK)

O (09/07/2026)

HK$974.50

ZTE Corporation (0763.HK)

O (06/04/2026)

HK$20.76

ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ)

E (06/04/2026)

Rmb29.03

Accton Technology Corporation (2345.TW)

O (06/06/2024)

NT$2,070.00

Advantech (2395.TW)

O (01/20/2021)

NT$727.00

AirTAC International (1590.TW)

O (04/16/2025)

NT$1,205.00

Asia Vital Components Co. Ltd. (3017.TW)

O (07/30/2024)

NT$3,440.00

AU Optronics (2409.TW)

E (02/10/2026)

NT$36.60

Auras Technology Co Ltd (3324.TWO)

E (05/04/2023)

NT$1,520.00

Bizlink (3665.TW)

O (03/10/2025)

NT$2,360.00

BOE Technology (000725.SZ)

O (09/06/2019)

Rmb5.50

Chenbro (8210.TW)

O (07/23/2025)

NT$874.00

Chroma Ate Inc. (2360.TW)

O (10/05/2021)

NT$2,330.00

Delta Electronics Inc. (2308.TW)

O (07/13/2017)

NT$1,965.00

E Ink Holdings Inc. (8069.TWO)

E (08/10/2026)

NT$144.00

Ennostar Inc (3714.TW)

U (09/23/2022)

NT$67.00

Fositek Corp (6805.TW)

O (06/25/2025)

NT$2,370.00

Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW)

O (03/30/2026)

NT$332.50

Innolux (3481.TW)

E (04/07/2025)

NT$51.00

King Slide Works Co. Ltd. (2059.TW)

O (11/08/2023)

NT$10,615.00

Lens Technology (300433.SZ)

E (07/22/2020)

Rmb28.41

Lite-On Technology (2301.TW)

E (01/15/2025)

NT$297.50

TCL Corp. (000100.SZ)

E (04/07/2025)

Rmb4.64

Tianma Microelectronics (000050.SZ)

U (01/24/2018)

Rmb6.23

Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co Ltd (300567.SZ)

E (11/26/2021)

Rmb168.22

Derrick Yang

Howard Kao
Acer Inc. (2353.TW)

U (04/23/2025)

NT$31.30

Asustek Computer Inc. (2357.TW)

U (11/16/2025)

NT$996.00

Catcher Technology (2474.TW)

U (11/17/2025)

NT$195.50

Compal Electronics (2324.TW)

U (04/23/2025)

NT$35.50

Elite Material Co. (2383.TW)

O (09/14/2026)

NT$6,000.00

FIT Hon Teng Ltd (6088.HK)

O (11/03/2025)

HK$4.63

Foxconn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd. (601138.SS)

O (07/10/2019)

Rmb56.07

Giga-Byte Technology Co. Ltd. (2376.TW)

E (11/16/2025)

NT$363.00

Gold Circuit Electronics Ltd. (2368.TW)

O (10/06/2022)

NT$1,285.00

Hon Hai Precision (2317.TW)

O (03/15/2024)

NT$249.00

Inspur Electronic Information (000977.SZ)

E (08/28/2023)

Rmb64.69

Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd. (1888.HK)

O (09/14/2026)

HK$49.00

LandMark Optoelectronics Corporation (3081.TWO)

E (03/26/2026)

NT$2,960.00

Lenovo (0992.HK)

O (07/10/2026)

HK$32.84

Lotes Co. Ltd. (3533.TW)

E (05/12/2025)

NT$1,915.00

Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW)

O (02/23/2026)

NT$1,475.00

Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW)

E (03/25/2026)

NT$89.70

Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW)

O (05/01/2023)

NT$325.50

Shengyi Technology Co Ltd. (600183.SS)

E (05/26/2022)

Rmb124.14

Shennan Circuits Co Ltd (002916.SZ)

E (08/24/2023)

Rmb347.25

Unimicron (3037.TW)

O (02/23/2026)

NT$1,270.00

Morgan Stanley Research

9

M

Update

Visual Photonics Epitaxy Co Ltd (2455.TW)

E (09/11/2023)

Wistron Corporation (3231.TW)

O (07/12/2023)

NT$188.50

Wiwynn Corp (6669.TW)

O (11/10/2025)

NT$2,240.00

Yageo Corp. (2327.TW)

O (10/28/2025)

NT$635.00

++

NT$592.00

Zhen Ding (4958.TW)

NT$558.00

Irene Yen
Co-Tech Development Corp. (8358.TWO)

O (09/14/2026)

NT$535.00

Taiwan Union Technology Corporation (6274.TWO)

O (09/14/2026)

NT$1,740.00

Stock Ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company.
* Historical prices are not split adjusted.

© 2026 Morgan Stanley

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  1. a44fc00f47 · 2026-10-13 15:00 · doubao / doubao-seed-evolving-latest-version · 策略包 2226518bfdee当前