摩根士丹利将思源电气移出分析师首选股名单，但维持增持评级及237元目标价

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Update

October 12, 2026 08:42 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd. | Asia Pacific

Eva Hou
Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

Eva.Hou@morganstanley.com

+852 2848-6964

Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd. (002028.SZ, 002028 CS)
What’s Changed

China Utilities | China

Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd. (002028.SZ)

From

To

Top Pick Removed

002028.SZ

-

Risk Reward for Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd. (002028.SZ) has been
updated
Reason for change
We are removing Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd. as an Analyst Top Pick but we maintain
our OW rating and positive stance on the company's long-term growth trajectory.

Stock Rating
Industry View
Price target
Shr price, close (Oct 12, 2026)
52-Week Range
Fiscal Year Ending
EPS (Rmb)**
Prior EPS (Rmb)**

Overweight
Attractive
Rmb237.00
Rmb120.65
Rmb239.12-100.32

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e
4.03
-

5.27
-

7.41
-

9.78
-

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare
framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley
Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley
Research as only a single factor in making their investment
decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures,
refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this
report.
+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered
with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member
and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on
communications with a subject company, public appearances
and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

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Risk
Reward
- Sieyuan
Electric
Co.Ltd. (002028.SZ)
Risk Reward
– Sieyuan
Electric Co.Ltd.
(002028.SZ)
Leading player benefiting from robust power grid investment; OW
OVERWEIGHT THESIS

PRICE TARGET Rmb237.00
We use discounted cash flow analysis to capture long-term cash flows for 2027-37. Key
assumptions:
WACC of 7.5%, which reflects a CoE of 9.5% (beta of 1.2, risk-free rate of 2.1%, risk premium
of 4.5%, a China premium of 2.0%), an after-tax CoD of 4.5% and a target debt-to-capital
ratio of 40%.
1% terminal growth.
Rmb222.99

Consensus Price Target Distribution

Rmb198.00

Rmb266.00

MS PT

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Mean

Morgan Stanley Estimates

RISK REWARD CHART

▪ We forecast earnings growth of 31%, 41%

and 32% YoY in 2026-28, respectively. We
cite market share expansion overseas as well
as resilient domestic market share amid
growing grid investment in China.
Sieyuan is the only domestic player with
notable exposure to both primary and
secondary equipment. We expect its product
portfolio to keep expanding, underpinned by
leading-edge R&D.
Sieyuan is strongly positioned among
Chinese peers globally, with leading
exposure overseas (~28% revenue mix in
2025) and further ramp-up likely in the
coming years.
Stay OW. Our price target implies 32.0x
2027e P/E and 1.0x PEG.

▪
▪
▪

CNY
Rmb311.20(+159.14%)
Rmb311.20(+159.14%)
320

Consensus Rating Distribution

240

100%Overweight
0% Equal-weight
0% Underweight

Rmb237.00(+97.35%)
Rmb237.00(+97.35%)

MS Rating

160

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Rmb120.09

Rmb120.90(+0.67%)
Rmb120.90(+0.67%)

80

Risk Reward Themes
0
OCT '25
Key:

APR '26

Historical Stock Performance

OCT '26

Current Stock Price

Pricing Power:
Renewable Energy:
Secular Growth:

OCT '27

Price Target

Positive
Positive
Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE

Rmb311.20

BASE CASE

Rmb237.00

BEAR CASE

Rmb120.90

35.0x bull-case 2027e EPS

32.0x base-case 2027e EPS

20.0x bear-case 2027e EPS

transformers is 5ppt higher than in our base
case in 2026-28.

35%/35%/30% and for transformers it is
35%/35%/35% in 2026-28, respectively.

transformers is 5ppt lower than in our base
case in 2026-28.

Revenue growth for switchgears and

Gross profit margin for transformers is 1ppt
higher than in our base case in 2026-28.

SG&A and R&D expenses/revenue ratios are
in total 1ppt lower than in our base case in
2026-28.

Revenue growth for switchgears is

Gross profit margin for switchgears is flat at
36.9% in 2026-28, with 36.4%/37.4%/38.4%
for transformers in 2026-28, respectively.

SG&A and R&D
expenses/revenue: 12.9%/12.5%/12.4% in
2026-28, respectively.

2

Revenue growth for switchgears and

Gross profit margin for transformers is 1ppt
lower than in our base case in 2026-28.

SG&A and R&D expenses/revenue ratios are
in total 1ppt higher than in our base case in
2026-28.

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Update

Risk Reward – Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd. (002028.SZ)
KEY EARNINGS INPUTS
Drivers

Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

GP margin in China market (%)

36.9

36.9

36.9

36.9

GP margin in overseas market (%)

36.4

36.4

37.4

38.4

Revenue growth in China market (%)

29.3

35.0

35.0

30.0

Revenue growth in domestic market
(%)

38.4

35.0

35.0

35.0

INVESTMENT DRIVERS
State Grid and South Grid's investment in the
distribution network
Expanding product portfolio thanks to R&D
efforts
Higher market share overseas with ongoing
breakthroughs in global markets

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE
0-10% Europe ex UK
0-10% Latin America
0-10% MEA
0-10% North America
70-80% Mainland China
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate
View explanation of regional hierarchies here

RISKS TO PT/RATING

MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

RISKS TO UPSIDE

FY Dec 2026e

Better-than-expected overseas order intake
(especially the US and Middle East)
Better-than-expected market share gains in
State Grid's tenders
Better-than-expected penetration in higher-end
product (e.g., >330kV GIS) tenders from State
Grid
RISKS TO DOWNSIDE
Weaker-than-expected overseas new orders
Weaker-than-expected domestic order intake
Weaker-than-expected market share gains in
State Grid's public tenders

Net income
(Rmb, mn)

EPS
(Rmb)

4,125
3,718.2

5.3
4.8

99.3%

5.6
5.2
29,242.9

Sales /
Revenue
(Rmb, mn)

27,052.0

EBIT
(Rmb, mn)

4,400.7

29,979.0
28,341.0

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING
Inst. Owners, % Active

4,391.0
4,059.4

5,134
5,205.4
4,872.4

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Mean

Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Morgan Stanley Research

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Risk Reward Reference links
1. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology Options_Probabilities_Exhibit_Link.pdf
2. View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes - RR_Themes_Exhibit_Link.pdf
3. View explanation of regional hierarchies - GEG_Exhibit_Link.pdf
4. View explanation of Theme/Exposure methodology ESG_Sustainable_Solutions_External_Link.pdf
5. View explanation of HERS methodology - ESG_HERS_External_Link.pdf

4

Update

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.A

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Morgan Stanley Research

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Coverage Universe
Stock Rating

Other Material Investment Services

Investment Banking Clients (IBC)

Clients (MISC)

% of Rating

% of Total

Count

% of Total IBC

Overweight/Buy

1599

43%

455

48%

28%

783

44%

Equal-weight/Hold

1563

42%

394

42%

25%

763

43%

Not-Rated/Hold

2

0%

1

0%

50%

1

0%

Underweight/Sell

570

15%

96

10%

17%

227

13%

Total

3,734

Category

946

Count

% of Total Other

Count

Category

MISC

1774

Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley received investment banking compensation in the
last 12 months. Due to rounding off of decimals, the percentages provided in the "% of total" column may not add up to exactly 100 percent.

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Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History (See Rating Definitions)

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INDUSTRY COVERAGE: China Utilities
Company (Ticker)

Rating (As Of)

Price* (10/09/2026)

Eva Hou
CGN Power Co., Ltd (1816.HK)

E (03/21/2026)

HK$3.20

CGN Power Co., Ltd (003816.SZ)

U (03/29/2021)

Rmb4.43

China Longyuan Power Group (0916.HK)

E (01/20/2026)

HK$5.28

China Longyuan Power Group (001289.SZ)

E (08/06/2024)

Rmb15.03

China Resources Power (0836.HK)

E (03/21/2026)

HK$19.93

China Yangtze Power Co. (600900.SS)

O (11/14/2023)

Rmb28.99

Dajin Heavy Industry (002487.SZ)

O (04/18/2026)

Rmb43.75

Goldwind (002202.SZ)

U (01/20/2026)

Rmb16.35

Goldwind (2208.HK)

E (08/17/2022)

HK$8.28

Hangzhou First Applied Material Co. Ltd (603806.SS)

O (01/18/2023)

Rmb14.35

Henan Pinggao Electric (600312.SS)

O (01/18/2024)

Rmb20.58

Huaneng Power International Inc. (0902.HK)

E (06/30/2022)

HK$6.11

Huaneng Power International Inc. (600011.SS)

U (04/07/2021)

Rmb7.33

JA Solar Technology Co Ltd (002459.SZ)

E (09/02/2025)

Rmb6.83

Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co. Ltd. (600522.SS)

O (10/12/2020)

Rmb30.09

LONGi Green Energy Technology Co Ltd (601012.SS)

U (09/02/2025)

Rmb11.24

NARI Technology (600406.SS)

O (11/01/2015)

Rmb22.40

Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co Ltd (603606.SS)

O (08/17/2022)

Rmb36.30

Riyue Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. (603218.SS)

O (02/11/2025)

Rmb9.44

Shanghai Electric (2727.HK)

U (03/26/2021)

HK$2.80

Shanghai Electric (601727.SS)

U (03/26/2021)

Rmb6.45

Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd. (002028.SZ)

O (07/01/2025)

Rmb120.09

Sinoma Science & Technology Co. Ltd. (002080.SZ)

O (09/23/2025)

Rmb51.80

Sungrow Power Supply Co. Ltd (300274.SZ)

O (06/09/2026)

Rmb80.68

Tongwei Co. Ltd. (600438.SS)

E (09/02/2025)

Rmb11.65

XJ Electric (000400.SZ)

E (03/21/2026)

Rmb21.49

Morgan Stanley Research

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Hannah Yang, CFA
Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd (0968.HK)

O (07/30/2020)

HK$1.94

O (04/08/2026)

Rmb34.28

Tom Li
Anhui Yingliu

l Co Ltd (603308.SS)

China Gas Holdings (0384.HK)

E (07/10/2026)

HK$5.23

China Resources Gas (1193.HK)

E (07/10/2026)

HK$16.49

Huaming Power Equipment (002270.SZ)

O (04/08/2026)

Rmb18.81

Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co. Ltd. (601567.SS)

O (04/08/2026)

Rmb13.36

Stock Ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company.
* Historical prices are not split adjusted.

© 2026 Morgan Stanley

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