Third Bridge专家称美国卡车货运处于上行周期但未给出Landstar可交易增量

[[00:02:40]]
With truckload spot rates being as high as they are and continuously growing week after week, where do you think we are in the freight cycle currently?

[[00:02:56]]
Yes. Presently, I see us… We're definitely in an upturn. The market seems to be increasing, particularly infrastructure business that open deck flatbed market business is extremely good now. It is, I think, being affected by fuel. Of course, that's a consideration and currently things happening in the Middle East, but I think the market is fairly strong.

[[00:03:44]]
What signals would you look for to determine whether the growth that we're seeing is sustainable?

[[00:03:54]]
Yes. Well, obviously, some of the signals I would look for is to see what the retail sector is doing. I look at the retail sector. I would still look at infrastructure. I would look at to see where fuel. I would also obviously be checking for a number of carriers leaving the market. The density of available or the availability of drivers are all things that I would look at to see exactly how the market or where it's going to those indicators.

[[00:04:42]]
You mentioned retail. How is that a signal for an inflection point? What should we be looking for there?

[[00:04:54]]
Yes. I'd be looking to see what consumer spending is like. Are we purchasing things? How are those inventories? Are the inventories here strong? Are we buying from inventories that have been in warehouses over a period of time or is it immediate need and how fast do we need those?

[[00:05:30]]
Landstar System's management noted that revenue per load was up about 13% YoY in April 2026, while its volumes remained flat. Similarly, truckload revenue per load was also up about 5.6% YoY for Q1 2026. How should we think about the balance between pricing and volume, given where we are in this freight cycle?

[[00:06:17]]
Essentially, how I read into that is that the number of transactions that they do, so their volume, the amount of business that they do is the same. Price is going up. Obviously, have to evaluate what is causing that price to go up? Is it because depending on what market that they're seeing the price increases? Is it on the retail side or is it on the platform side? It's one of the things that you got to sort through and see which one is being affected.

[[00:07:28]]
Would you say that this is a signal that Landstar is becoming more selective with the freight quality that it chooses?

[[00:07:42]]
Well, particularly in their model, I think a lot of it. In their model, I don't think they pick and choose necessarily what freight they want to handle. Because it's controlled by the agents, okay, not by the corporation. Only a small portion of that business is controlled by the corporation, the type of freight that they want to handle. Of course, if the drivers are asking for more money, then pricing is going up. If volume is the same, it maybe seems to me that the driver… That there's a shift now that the drivers are requesting more for their loads, but they're still moving the same amount of loads. I think the agents are having to pay more for to get their exact same loads covered based on the availability of the capacity.

[[00:09:12]]
How do you expect the pricing power to trend as we move into H2 2026? How much higher do you think truckload rates will keep increasing?

[[00:09:25]]
I don't know that I can answer how much more. What I can say is as… I think that there's pressure on all carriers to use better quality carriers based on the recent ruling, okay? That could have an impact on the overall price. I also think it comes to… Obviously, you got to look at consumer spending. You have to look at where infrastructure and plays a role, energy… Where is the focus at within our own economy here.

[[00:10:31]]
How do you think the rising fuel costs have affected Landstar and specifically the behaviour of its independent owner-operators when choosing which loads to accept?

[[00:10:52]]
Yes. Within the Landstar model, the drivers… When the driver takes a load, he or she gets reimbursed. They get reimbursed for the fuel that they use. If each week, they produce a fuel index and the driver gets 100% of that. When it's their own capacity, I'm sure that it does play a small role, but the driver gets 100%. For example, if you have a USD 1,000 load and the driver is getting… Has to put in USD 100 for fuel, that driver is getting 100% of that, not the agent and not Landstar. It's the driver gets 100%. The only thing that affects the driver, the agent and Landstar is the top line revenue of the cost for that driver to accept the load, not the fuel.

[[00:12:17]]
Could you outline where the top-line revenue comes from? Who pays that? How is that split up across Landstar, the agent and the driver?

[[00:12:35]]
Yes. At Landstar, they get a percentage of the line haul. It's the line haul that's split up between the three. For example, most agents get 7.8% of the… I'm sorry, I don't remember the exact percentage, but they get…

[[00:13:18]]
Could you share a range? Would it be, say, 5-10%?

[[00:13:27]]
Yes. It's roughly between 6% and 7% goes to the agent of the line haul. Then roughly, there's a percentage in the mid-20s that go to Landstar and the remainder go to the driver.

[[00:13:58]]
Is there ever a case where either Landstar or the agent has to absorb the price of cost of fuel just to get a load on?

[[00:14:10]]
They can, but it's usually… Obviously, there's ways of sweetening that to make it more attractive to a driver. Regardless, if the customer agrees to pay USD 1,000, again, they're just taking it out of the pocket. It's a matter of how it's all divided because accessorials and fuel all go to the driver. If you took out the top line, you're actually taking money out of the agent's pockets and out of the Landstar pocket and giving it to the driver.

[[00:14:59]]
The driver pay is almost always guaranteed. Who gets cut or who might take a price decrease? Would that be the agent or Landstar?

[[00:15:11]]
Remember that that top line is divided three separate ways. Everyone takes the hit. It's just the amount of the percentage. The driver is always getting paid the fuel based on the fuel index that's published.

[[00:15:29]]
You also touched on accessorials. Could you walk me through what some of these might look like? What are some of the most common ones?

[[00:15:37]]
Yes. Detention time, tarping, tolls, all those are fees that vary that go, in most cases, are paid directly to the driver because the driver has to pay the tolls, the driver is getting paid to torque the load. Detention, all go to the driver.

[[00:16:07]]
What percentage would you estimate that accessorials can add to a load on a typical run?

[[00:16:20]]
It's a fixed amount. In other words, it's set up as a range. I think that there's an internal… Internally, it's monitored and limited. They're not going to let it get out of control. In general, it could be anywhere from USD 100 to under USD 1,000 in most cases. Sometimes there's more, of course, there is, depending on what the services are and to the extent. In most cases, per accessorial is USD 100 to under USD 1,000.

[[00:17:11]]
When Landstar brings an agent on, do they come just as themselves or is there a case where they might have their own fleet?

[[00:17:38]]
In most cases, when they recruit an agent, they do not have their own truck or a fleet. Only a few become fleet owner agents, very few.

[[00:18:05]]
Are most of the people that the agents are calling already within the Landstar network, or is the company bringing in its own relationships as well?

[[00:18:18]]
Yes. In most cases, ideally, they're looking for agents that have a direct shipper business. However, all agents may pursue third-party logistics companies.

[[00:18:42]]
Could you outline exactly what it means that it may pursue some 3PLs [third-party logistics]?

[[00:18:48]]
Yes. An agent can pursue a 3PL. As long as that 3PL business that they're giving them or that they're transacting with doesn't interfere with a contractual agreement that they have with a direct shipper. If they already have a contract with a direct shipper. If they have a relationship with a direct shipper, a contract, an agreed rate for business with volume, they are dissuaded against moving a broker load or a 3PL load for that direct shipper that they have a contract or an agreement in place.

[[00:19:48]]
If the agent is already coming into Landstar with its own contract.

[[00:19:55]]
All agents. That would be all agents.

[[00:20:02]]
When you say that Landstar ideally looks for agents that have a direct shipper business, is there a scale that the company looks for? Does it look for agents to already be doing a certain amount – perhaps USD 80,000-200,000 per year? What does that look like?

[[00:20:22]]
Overall, they're looking for an agent to do at least USD 250,000-0.5m a year to sign on an agent. That's the general range.

[[00:20:39]]
For an agent who's already doing that, what's the incentive to come and be on a Landstar network?

[[00:20:46]]
Yes. The incentive is the capacity is the van pool, okay, is the capacity. If you have a customer with a large, that needs a large trailer pool, they have the capacity to do that. They have an opportunity to grow their business by coming to Landstar if they're doing flatbed, if they're doing van freight and flatbed freight.

[[00:21:16]]
I'm assuming there is still some capacity that is in the network that wasn't brought on by an agent. Are those done through Landstar Corporate or…

[[00:21:31]]
Yes. All the third-party carriers, that's all vetted by Landstar Corporate. Obviously, their own capacity, that's all vetted and managed by Landstar and the outside broker carriers are all vetted and managed by Landstar. The agent doesn't have to manage any of that.

[[00:21:57]]
Could you walk me through Landstar's freight mix as it relates to spot vs contract? Does the company tend to lean heavily one way or the other?

[[00:22:08]]
Yes. It's heavy brokerage. I'm going to say it's about 50/50. I don't know the exact number. They're on their earnings release. I don't know that. It leans toward the middle of each.

[[00:22:37]]
Is this something that Landstar emphasises to the agents, or is this just the way that agents naturally try to keep their businesses?

[[00:22:51]]
It all depends on what they're… It's a natural lean for an agent okay, to want to… Obviously, there's an emphasis to load the Landstar truck. Because it's an asset that they… Well, it's a light asset. They own the trailers, just the trailers only. There's a lean towards that, but that's the strength of the model is being able to do a trailer pool and use that equipment to use that trailer equipment. That's the strength of the model.

[[00:23:38]]
You're talking about the strength of Landstar's model. How does that differentiate the company from the assets of players such as CH Robinson?

[[00:23:48]]
They don't own the asset. They don't have a trailer pool at the size of what Landstar has. CH Robinson may do more transactions, but those are all brokerage transactions. Majority of them are at least on the full truckload side. Of course, they do other things besides, but when you take the trucking sector, divide it in those two modes, very… I think they own very few equipment, if any, I don't know.

[[00:24:57]]
How much of the loads are moved using Landstar trucks or trailers? What percentage would you assign to how much of the business is done using the company's trucks?

[[00:25:23]]
Yes. No. I want to say it probably at least half of their business, at least close to half. It's definitely a blended solution. If I recall correctly, it was at least half.

[[00:25:52]]
We've talked about some of the pros with the agency programme. Could you outline some of the cons or downsides of Landstar's type of business model?

[[00:26:09]]
Yes. Some of the cons may be percentage that they offer to the agents. Some of the cons would be that they require exclusivity. It's a very crowded environment with the number of agents that they have. Being able to operate coming in as a new agent, you're limited on the account base. That's a big issue, I would say. It's such a big world compared to some of the smaller, more intimate companies.

[[00:27:13]]
You would say that there are some friction points at times between the agents and Landstar Corporate. Are there any bottlenecks that prevent an agent from scaling up their volume?

[[00:27:27]]
Yes, because is being able to expand because it's the number of agents that they have, that's a bottleneck. The number of agents that they have in their existing network is a bottleneck and why agents leave because they can't expand. They can't expand. They want to go other places to where they can expand. Scale, that's a big, big, big plus, larger agents are able to have the larger trailer pools. They also take up the capacity for the smaller agents that want to grab capacity. That's a big problem. Just the overall size of the organisation is prohibiting as well for them for the individual small business person. It's a large network. The ability to grow is there, sure, certainly. It's a steep hill because of the concentration of the agents.

[[00:29:06]]
Is the large pool of agents done by design on Landstar's part to ensure that it has enough people out there?

[[00:29:16]]
Absolutely. Absolutely. Their objective is to keep price high. They want to keep price high on their capacity. Because if they keep price high, then there's more profit to be made. Certainly, broker as much as you want, broker as much as you possibly can.

[[00:29:53]]
Could you share a range for what Landstar's agent turnover might be?

[[00:30:20]]
I would say under, to the best of my knowledge, I would definitely say under 10% that are producing revenue. Under 10% that are producing revenue. The keyword there is producing revenue. If an agent leaves and he or she's producing revenue, that agent either takes the business with them or they recapture that revenue or that customer through another agent.

[[00:31:12]]
Could you outline what a typical agent contract may look like? How easy is it for an agent to leave if they want to?

[[00:31:29]]
If an agent wants to leave, they give a notice. That's all that they need to do is give a notice. I believe they have to give a written notice. It's that easy if they want to leave. Now, they do have provisions with how do I want to call it, solicitation of existing customers. They have that. They don't have a… Do not compete. They don't have that. They do have a do not solicit clause.

[[00:32:29]]
Let's say that an agent is already doing USD 250,000 and they come on to the Landstar network and bring their book of business with them. Once they leave, do they take that same book of business back?

[[00:32:42]]
They can.

[[00:32:46]]
Do they usually?

[[00:32:51]]
Do they usually pull it back? The ones that leave generally pull their business back because it's a relationship business. That's just not them. It's pretty much everywhere.

[[00:33:06]]
Is that more of an industry norm?

[[00:33:10]]
That's an industry norm, but it just depends on if you want to pressure, if it's an account where it becomes… Where with most companies where it becomes an issue of contention is when if the corporation assists the agent in bringing on that piece of business, did they work jointly together. That's where the bone of contention happens. That's where they excel. Most people, I mean, that's the hard part about leaving is if you leave or go to a different model and your current book of business is under a capacity play, does your customer want to lose his or her capacity? That's a good… That's a hard question. Depends on if it's brokered or is it running on company trucks.

[[00:34:24]]
Are you saying that, if an agent came on and their customers got used to the capacity that Landstar offered, they might not even want to go back with that agent, they might want to stay with Landstar?

[[00:34:36]]
That is a consideration. Like I said, it's a consideration.

[[00:34:52]]
How much are the agents relying on corporate technology or tools in order to bring on new business or cater to their business?

[[00:35:09]]
They rely heavily on that. They do a good job with that. They do a really good… I think that they're better than most. They have the resources. There's always room for improvement. I think one of the keys that they have in their model is that they try and keep everything pretty square, neat and tidy. That helps them with technology, their technology play. Sometimes it can be a limiting factor when all you want to play with is squares. Sometimes you got to play with different shapes in order to make money as well.

[[00:36:15]]
When you say all you want to play with is the squares, is that a trucking thing or…

[[00:36:22]]
No, that's my own. I say squares because mainly what they move is they're a van play. They're a van play. How nicely does that does whatever you're shipping fit in the van. If you can put as much as you can in the van, the shipper saves on cost and shipping. It's not like a… They certainly play in the open deck flatbed market, too. They do a good job with that. Things can vary on a flatbed where in a van, it's mainly does it fit inside the box and how much does it weigh? That's the argument every single time and what's the distance. Those are the three things. When you go to a flatbed, you have a lot of other things, weight, height, width all come into play.

[[00:37:36]]
When it comes to the customer types and freight mix, what types of customers can Landstar service at the highest quality? Who does the company go after the most?

[[00:37:51]]
Yes. They're looking for customers, mainly van customers, people who want the big trailer pool. That's their main high volume. Obviously, they love over-dimensional, too, on the platform side, open deck side. High technical, high-value freight is what everyone is looking for, and it's no different for anyone.

[[00:38:39]]
What are some of the highly technical or high-value freights? Which industries would those be in?

[[00:38:46]]
Like metals, like high-value metals are good machinery, equipment, things that need control like diapers and food, but yet items that are light. We don't want real heavy density like LTL. They want lighter, lighter commodities that are of high value. Electronics are a good example because those need to be monitored. Anything that requires a process formula, okay, food formula where you have to put it on their capacity, where it has to be controlled, where it has to be monitored. Those are all important things that are good loads, really light, easy to offload, quick stops, stuff where it can be quickly loaded and quickly unloaded, get the driver on to his next load.

[[00:40:12]]
As you said, we're hearing that grocery, healthcare and the pharmacy verticals are hot commodities that a lot of the players are going for. Is there anything that makes Landstar specifically different when going after these types of freight?

[[00:40:30]]
Yes, they just have the ability. We have such a strong van poll that having their equipment in place at the shipper just brings more opportunity to the agent and the Landstar because if you have equipment on site, "Hey, this truck is full, we just need another one, boom, just grab another one, just grab another one, just grab another one." It just makes it easy having the equipment availability is… Yes, Landstar is evaluating cost. There's a cost to have that equipment there. They want to make sure that there's that balance there and that they're getting the highest yield per mile out of whoever they give the equipment to. I'm just using this as an example. If you're getting, let's say, the highest USD 4 a mile and you have a customer that's getting USD 1 a mile and that USD 1 a mile guy has five trailers, they will bump that guy getting one mile to a guy or an opportunity that comes to them for USD 3 a mile, if they're not using that equipment. Always getting the best yield out of their equipment, pretty good at that. It's painstakingly. It's a lot of hard work, but I think they do a good job.

[[00:42:31]]
Is the equipment on-site model unique to Landstar, or do we see other players doing that as well?

[[00:42:39]]
I think other players do it. Other players do it, other but they have a very good costing model that allows them to control that.

[[00:42:51]]
Shippers can request to have equipment on-site, and then Landstar will decide whether that makes sense for it or not. Is that correct?

[[00:43:04]]
Correct. Exactly. You go to the trailer department and you say, "Hey, I want a spot. I'd like to spot three trailers on-site." The first question is what the rate per mile and where is it going? Is there another load that's coming back?

[[00:43:33]]
When it comes to full truckload, less-than-truckload, drayage or intermodal, are there any that Landstar leans into more heavily?

[[00:43:46]]
Yes, it would be flatbed over dimensional and expedite.

[[00:43:54]]
Would expedite be overnight or…

[[00:43:59]]
No, expedite. When I refer to expedite, I'm talking on a truck that's a non-standard size, flatbed or vans less than 48. If it's like a cube truck or a box truck or a hot shot, those little expedite where they're picking up a skid or two and have to be there right away. That's something that they lean into as well.

[[00:44:41]]
Is there a typical distance that Landstar leans into?

[[00:44:51]]
In general, the common thing is like to go light and long. Prefer to go greater than 750 miles. Short haul, not attractive to the Landstar driver.

[[00:45:16]]
Is that just because of the type? What makes that not attractive to it?

[[00:45:20]]
Revenue.

[[00:45:21]]
Revenue?

[[00:45:23]]
What it cost to operate the truck.

[[00:45:28]]
It sounds as if Landstar has a very unique model all around. Could you talk about who the company's closest competitors are?

[[00:45:47]]
Yes. Greatwide would be one. Universal would be one. Bennett would be one. JB Hunt would be, CRST. Schneider is another one.

[[00:46:24]]
Geographically, are there any hot pockets where Landstar has the greatest foothold? In which lanes does the company operate best?

[[00:46:36]]
Yes, where there's people, high concentration of people and manufacturing. If you look at that map, there's a lot that's going. There's a lot going on in the state of Texas, Dallas, Houston, Chicago, Detroit, Chattanooga, wherever there's great large cities, those are the sweet spots.

[[00:47:12]]
Those rural lanes are not ones where you'll see Landstar play?

[[00:47:19]]
Again, competitive, any driver will go there for the right price. You have to get a lane out in order to get a driver there. South Dakota, North Dakota, very difficult. You can get a lane in, but you can't get a lane out.

[[00:47:45]]
The recent Supreme Court ruling that you mentioned is interesting, especially given Landstar's unique model. What effects do you think this will have on the company, particularly when we think about that unique agency programme?

[[00:48:04]]
Yes. I would say, I mean… I'm not sure exactly what their policies or procedures, but I might expect that I'm sure that they have very careful on making sure that they have quality, third-party capacity that they're experienced, that they're mark out that check all the boxes for safety and compliance and scrutinise for business… Make sure that they're acting in a business way and good business acumen, but mostly safe. It could affect their third-party capacity.

[[00:49:05]]
Would you say Landstar's vetting programme is already top notch, or is this something for the company to work on?

[[00:49:11]]
No, I think it's top notch. I think it's top notch. They do a good job.

[[00:49:21]]
We mentioned earlier that some agents may come in with their own multi-truck fleets. Is there any friction that may occur? Could there ever be a situation where Landstar might restrict some of those trucks because of the vetting process?

[[00:49:38]]
Yes, of course, they're going to vet for CSA scores. Certainly, his driving record and his experience, years of driving, they're going to check all that. It's the same across the board.

[[00:50:01]]
We are expecting an increase in the cost of insurance. Who do you think bears the cost of this insurance? Who is going to take the hit? Will margins take a hit? Will it be the agents or Landstar?

[[00:50:24]]
Yes. Like insurance, if it's excess value, it's going to be passed to the shipper.

[[00:50:35]]
When you say excess value, what do you mean?

[[00:50:39]]
Meaning if it's high value or requires additional insurance? Okay. I'm sorry, wrong type of insurance. Is that what you're talking about? Is excess insurance, who is that passed to or you mean the cost of insuring the insurance of the truck. Okay, the insurance of the…

[[00:51:07]]
Could we get into both? We could get into the insurance of the trucks and then this excess value that you were speaking to as well.

[[00:51:14]]
Yes. The insurance of the trucks is… That's always a liability. It always comes down to, obviously, the corporation that plays in a major role on how they control the cost of the overall operation. That affects everybody. How insurance claims are handled as insurance rises. Obviously, if they cut at the corporate level, that affects the service of the agents. They have to be mindful of that. The market is what controls the price of the load.

[[00:52:24]]
If something goes wrong on a drive, is Landstar held liable? Is the agent held liable?

[[00:52:37]]
If the agent did everything that he's supposed to do, he or she's supposed to do, okay, the agent isn't liable. That's part of the model and why an agent would come to Landstar. If the agent is negligent, then part of that would be on them, could be on them. In most cases, it comes back to the corporation or the driver.

[[00:53:15]]
Would you say that the crackdown we're seeing because of the rule could expose Landstar more heavily to more insurance claims?

[[00:53:28]]
Yes, I think it could. I think it could, but not… I think that they're aware of what drivers, what their records look like. They're aware of it. They understand what they're doing. Then they have a very thorough process for vetting drivers and keeping drivers very, very, very close, well vetted process.

[[00:54:05]]
We've been seeing a heavy crackdown on CDL [commercial driver's license] legitimacy across the US. What effect do you think this is having on Landstar and its agents?

[[00:54:24]]
Yes. I think that they can quickly adjust as the rules. They can quickly adjust and to the laws and the requirements, they adjust quickly to that. What happens is if it takes capacity out of the system, but I think that they, they always err on the side of safety. That is part of their model that they do stand by. They do what they can to make sure that there… I think of it's more concerned on an outside truck than a company-owned truck because they can control that. They can control what happens with their own drivers and they can adjust, but they can't control what happens necessarily. They can only control with what's on paper with outside third-party capacity.

[[00:55:53]]
Circling back to the access to trucks as it relates to the agents, if the capacity for those specialised open decks and heavy-haul vans tightens, how does that affect the agent's ability to source trucks on short notice?

[[00:56:22]]
Yes. There's a shortage of capacity, then the agent has to raise his price, okay, then which opens the door for a competitor.

[[00:56:43]]
How typical is this in practice at Landstar? How often is there no capacity available?

[[00:56:57]]
Well, there's a good pool of capacity, but the play is finding the capacity to move the load for the price that the customer wants to pay. That's the play. What is it? Is it a driver's market or shippers' market. It was a shipper's market and is now a driver's market, changing to a driver's market.

[[00:57:43]]
Driver retention and seated trucks are a big deal in the market right now. How do you see this shift impacting the driver's market? What do you think Landstar is doing to keep its fair share of drivers?

[[00:58:02]]
Yes. I think that they do things to recognise their drivers. They host a lot of events. They host safety events. They work one-on-one with the drivers, with their logs and with the training on how to run their business. They're trying to promote and get their drivers the highest paid loads. That's what they want, and that's what a driver wants. He wants to keep moving, and he wants the highest paid loads. There's a play which some drivers want to stay close to home. If they can get all that together, you have a really happy driver.

[[00:59:02]]
All right. We will conclude the Interview there. Thank you for joining me for this Third Bridge Interview and for all the insights that you brought to us today.

[[00:59:12]]
Thank you.

Thank you, sir. Enjoy the rest of your day.

[[00:59:15]]
All right. Bye.

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