Third Bridge 专家访谈Codex · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 07-14 20:00:00时区推断·⟳ 抓取 21:11:13·⚡ 决策 07-16 21:12:07 +54s·103.1 天前
Third Bridge 专家访谈称 Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection 收入高增但入住率爬坡仍是主要挑战
访谈内容主要是对 Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection 2025-2026 年经营、定价、入住率和成本压力的专家观点总结,不是订单、业绩披露、并购或监管等离散催化。
📄 原文Third Bridge 专家访谈↗ 原文
Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection – Consumer Proposition Amid Intensifying Competition
[[00:02:12]] How do you think Ritz-Carlton performed in 2025, and what have we seen in terms of the company's performan…
不做 Marriott International(MAR.US)
不做:这是一篇专家访谈背景材料,未披露 Marriott 的直接业绩增量、订单或指引变化,且 Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection 对上市主体的短周期传导不清晰。
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研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-14 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 访谈内容主要是对 Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection 2025-2026 年经营、定价、入住率和成本压力的专家观点总结,不是订单、业绩披露、并购或监管等离散催化。
- Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection 本身并非明确可交易标的,且访谈没有给出对 Marriott 等上市公司足够直接、短周期、可量化的收入或利润传导。
- 事件已距访谈时间约 49 小时,内容更像付费研究背景材料,无法形成同向可执行交易。
主要风险
- 若后续出现 Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection 融资、上市、重大财务披露或 Marriott 对该业务敞口的正式指引,需要作为新事件重新评估。
- 高端邮轮需求和燃油成本变化可能影响行业长期判断,但本条访谈不足以作为短线交易触发器。
原文全文
展开原文 · 32,190 字
[[00:02:12]]
How do you think Ritz-Carlton performed in 2025, and what have we seen in terms of the company's performance so far in 2026? Could you share some thoughts on what went well for it, as well as a few things that perhaps didn't meet its own expectations?
[[00:02:39]]
I'd be glad to detail that. My high-level conclusion of the Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection has demonstrated a very strong product market fit for the guest and pricing level. The company is in a huge growth mode, so they've yet to utilise the fleet utilisation and corporate structure to its benefits because of its huge growth. I feel it's made huge strides this year getting towards profitability. I think they were just shy of USD 100m in Q1, which is, I believe, well over 100% YoY growth and are growing their revenue very quickly. With all of that said, the company has also been growing the inventory very quickly with two new ships in a fairly quick amount of time. I think overall, my summary is that affluential travellers will pay an exceptional rate due to the brand. I think Ritz has come on pretty aggressive pricing, but they've held that pricing. With that said, I think their biggest challenge overall from what I see is just filling that capacity, so getting from the 50% level capacity to 70%, 80%, 90% capacity is probably going to be the biggest challenge for the Ritz-Carlton in the next 3-4 years to grow that capacity and maintain that high price point, I think, is the biggest challenges.
To go back to your original question, I feel that the company has a very strong brand recognition and is demanding a very high ticket cost per day and has had very positive momentum in terms of revenue and ticket growth. The only questions are how much marketing cost is going to take to drive that capacity to 100%, to 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% over the next 3-4 years.
[[00:05:49]]
As you mentioned, Ritz-Carlton's revenue growth has been strong and ticket bookings have been healthy. The company has made significant strides in brand recognition, likely due to its substantial marketing spend. However, to your point, capacity obviously dropped from around 70% to the current 50%. A large part of that is due to absorbing the new ships, which is completely understandable. Do you think that was a larger drop than anticipated, or is it quite normal for a small fleet to experience this when ramping up with so much excess capacity?
[[00:06:27]]
Yes. 70% is not ideal, but it's a lot better than 50%, and when you have all of these fixed costs in cruising, you want to maintain that 70%. I think the biggest factor of dropping to that 50% is keeping the marketing… I believe they're spending about USD 100m a year on marketing and to keep it at that level, but then to triple the fleet over the past few years is definitely one of the major reasons for that drop, but you're still doubling the berths that you've booked YoY. It's still a really good momentum that the brand is carrying, and the multimillion dollar question is keeping that per diem ticket cost high, but ramping up that capacity, so that's the levers that you've got to focus on to get to sustained profitability.
[[00:08:14]]
Do you think that, initially, capacity for even the first ship was a bit slower to build than Ritz-Carlton's own expectations, or perhaps slower than what the industry anticipated? Is there a particular reason for that, or do you think it was actually completely in line with what you would expect when a new ship or a new fleet enters the market?
[[00:08:41]]
I think the biggest reason for the slow capacity growth is the high ticket price. They're coming in at an extremely high, almost double the per diem of the legacy providers, your Regents, Silverseas. You're coming in with ships half the size, so that is the justification of the high exclusivity high ticket price, so you're trying to build a ticket price based on a more niche product that can definitely, and I feel like the company has done a good job of proving that model, and it's just a matter of building that consensus. I mentioned at the top of the hour, my MBA thesis was on growing the cruise market. The cruise market in the US alone, 20-plus years ago was only at 4%, so it's converting those land-based travellers to cruisers. At that high ticket price, that's not done quickly, but it's a snowball effect, and the snowball grows and grows over the years, and there's no doubt that Ritz-Carlton has the brand recognition. It's just a matter of converting those Bonvoy members to cruisers at a very high ticket price, and that does take time to do, so they came in with a very aggressive ticket price. I think they have proved that model. It's just a matter of growing that base.
To go back also to your original question, they may have been a little too aggressive with their targets, having very high targets to fill the capacity from scratch demands a very high cost of marketing to get that snowball going, but once you fill the ships, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy when you have loyal guests that have experienced the product, they will come back again and again. That's why the legacy ultra-luxury cruise lines are able to charge half. They've already got that snowball going over the past 20-30 years.
[[00:11:49]]
What is your outlook for the ultra-luxury cruising industry? This includes the original pioneers, Ritz-Carlton positioning itself at twice the price point, and the new entrants coming in at even higher rates. Is this a sector that you are structurally bullish on?
[[00:12:19]]
I think we have some decent headwinds with the war this year. War is never a positive for travel. It definitely gives a little bit of a pause. Ultra-luxury is a little more insulated than other travel, but just overall war does hamper overall travel, but with that said, there's no real barriers with the events, the world events going on in Iran, there's no real disruption to travel. People can still travel the Mediterranean with little to no regard. Maybe you could say like a Turkey could get a little bit affected, but not really, so it's just more of a perception out there for, I would say, the next 6-12 months, but my overall 3-5-year assessment of the market is extremely positive. I feel like there's an insatiable demand for luxury as well as ultra-luxury. You have an increasing population that is retiring and wanting to travel and has a large amount of disposable income to travel. I feel like the overall 3-5-year perspective is extremely positive.
[[00:14:17]]
What does the customer demographic look like here? It sounds as if it is aimed at individuals who are in or approaching retirement, which has historically been the case. However, given this price point, is it opening the market up to new customers who might not have traditionally been associated with cruising?
[[00:14:44]]
Yes. I think Ritz has done a great job. Yes, the legacy carriers for luxury and ultra-luxury have typically been your retiree, but I feel like all of the ultra-luxury players are trying to bring that number down into the 50s and even 40s and trying to get your working professional onto the product younger, knowing that if they get a younger demographic on there that they'll have a customer rather than acquiring a customer in their 60s or 70s and having a 10 or 20-year window of repeat cruising, going after a 40 or 50-year-old can bring 20-30 to possibly 40 years of repeat business, so that initial cost does pay off. I think Ritz has done a great job of marketing to their Bonvoy members that have the ability to get away for longer periods of time at higher price points and deliver an exceptional experience. It's just a matter of converting them one-time to doing that.
[[00:16:08]]
Could you elaborate on the cost environment? You mentioned the Middle East conflict, and we have seen oil prices spike yet again. Beyond that, what are the various cost pressures facing the industry, or specifically Ritz-Carlton, over the next 12 months or so?
[[00:16:28]]
Yes. Geopolitical itinerary disruption, I don't think travel will be disrupted because not many cruise lines are going into that area, into the Strait of Hormuz, but all of the other factors do get disrupted. Obviously, fuel is the biggest factor in our industry, labour, bringing people to the ship, so flying the staff back and forth is an enormous cost, and when fuel prices go up and airline costs go up, that just immediately adds to the bottom line, not to mention food costs also get affected. All of these factors don't help with the overall expense, the fixed cost of the business, and then on top of it, it does affect somewhat the guests with higher airfare or travel costs, so luxury consumers have a little bit less sensitivity, but still, if equity markets are affected or equity markets go down, that could affect the confidence of that traveller. Those are the pretty big geopolitical factors, the inflation factors, airfare, fuel, labour, food are all fixed costs that can increase the bottom line takeaway of the brand.
[[00:18:41]]
How does a player such as Ritz-Carlton manage that through the P&L? Does the company have no choice but to pass those higher costs on to the customer, or are there mitigation efforts it can implement without compromising the CX?
[[00:19:02]]
Yes. Well, that's an interesting thought. It's hard to mitigate those costs. One thing they're doing, but it's also hurting the business is growing the business, so by growing from one ship to three ships and growing the brand reduces the overall food costs. You can negotiate a little bit on overall costs to the business as the business scales up, but then it also has the harder job of filling more of those cabins, so that's the biggest factor to economies of scale growing the business is the best way to mitigate that. Other than that, the point that you mentioned is correct is you just maintain that high price point and hopefully, you still have to market to the guest strongly to get that snowball going, but it's a tough balancing act with costs rising, fixed costs rising, you have to maintain a very strong marketing presence to fill the increasing capacity and maintain a high price point.
By dropping that price point, yes, you'll have a higher capacity, but you put the overall business in jeopardy if you drop that price point because it's very difficult to raise a price point once it's been dropped. I would say to maintain that price point, continue the efforts, and it looks like from this past Q1 that efforts have really been paying off that the business is growing in the right direction. It just takes time to get that direction going.
[[00:21:18]]
You said you were perhaps a bit surprised by the price point Ritz-Carlton initially established, yet the company is still raising its prices quite significantly – by around 20% in ADR [average daily rate] in 2025, with Q1 2026 rates up 27%. Can it keep this momentum going? I suspect Ritz-Carlton feels its heavy marketing spend warrants it, and the company obviously has to pass price inflation on to the customer. However, it seems to be quite a material rate of increase given how high it is already priced relative to the competition.
[[00:22:02]]
It is extremely aggressive. I think they have justification for it. Like I mentioned, the fleet is well, in many cases, twice as small, sometimes 3x, 4x, 5x as small than another competitor in the ultra-luxury space, so it does command a higher price point, but based on the legacy providers, it is a very high and aggressive price point, but I'm a big fan of spending marketing dollars to fill the ship over a period of time. Even though that's painful to be at a 50% to drop your price to get to 60% or 70% is self-inflicting pain for the short-term gain, so it's a long-term game that you've got to play. There's definitely headwinds with costs as costs have gone up, so that offsetting that is justified, but it's still going to make that capacity growth a slow track up to get back up to 60%, 70%, 80% capacity growth over the next few years, but it's an interesting balance to keep that ticket cost high and grow the capacity, but that's a winning strategy. I do like that strategy, and I would do that strategy myself. I would not want to drop my ticket prices to increase capacity. You'll have a short-term gain, but long-term failure doing that.
[[00:24:31]]
Some of Ritz-Carlton's headline pricing numbers are up 20%-plus YoY, which seems aggressive. How much of that is simply a price increase on the same cruise offered in 2025 vs opening up more premium destinations or different routes that bring an added element of pricing power?
[[00:24:59]]
Well, with the addition of the additional ships, you're able to bring in… One of the strongest ways to increase ticket cost is by bringing in premium routes, and I've definitely seen Ritz-Carlton do that with the Asia, with the ship doing Asia/Alaska, you'll bring in much higher yields vs a Caribbean cruise, so you can get natural ticket growth by doing that and by going to those far-off places that people will pay a huge premium for as well as just growing your regular ticket in the Caribbean by 20%, so when you've got a guest that has experienced that product one time, the first time is the toughest acquisition cost, but once they have experienced the product to get a 20% premium is not easy, but it's a lot easier than getting it from a guest that's never experienced it before. Again, it's that snowball effect that you can still grow, but a 20% growth like in the Caribbean market is very aggressive, is very, very aggressive, especially with the current capacity headwinds.
[[00:26:49]]
Let's come back to your point about how Ritz-Carlton has been able to maintain these high price points, which are twice what some of the more established competitors charge for a ticket. You mentioned the ship is half the size, but what exactly justifies that premium? Is it just having a more intimate ship? Because the ships are smaller, does the company offer exclusive access to different ports? Is there anything else that differentiates and justifies a higher price point for Ritz-Carlton – perhaps in terms of the CX, the quality or the fit-out?
[[00:27:38]]
The service level, the guest to staff ratio is exceptional. For that price point, it should be, but yes, you'll have a much more refined personal service in a ship of 200 people vs on a main competitor would be Explora or Silverseas is going to be in the 400-person range, 450. Crystal Cruises will be in the 600-700 person range, so almost double, and then you get into other competitors like Regent now coming out with 1,200-person ships, so you're looking at 6x the amount of passengers. At this price point, personal service and guest experience are paramount. You're able to deliver that guest experience flawlessly, you get that more of a yacht-like experience with a under 200-person ship and guests will pay for that. The industry is definitely going towards the yacht experience and a similar yacht experience would be in the millions for a week or two. To pay USD 30,000, USD 40,000, USD 50,000 for a week is a great deal compared to private yachting when you get that private yacht experience, which is nice. We're able to deliver a private yacht experience at a 10x lower cost than getting your own yacht.
I think that's kind of the main selling point. The other major factor is the entrance of now becoming live is the Four Seasons. The Four Seasons has even smaller ships and even higher price points, so they're able to ride off of Four Seasons coattails and deliver those higher price points of the 20% YoY growth because of the entrance of people like the Four Seasons, so it's a relative value compared to Four Seasons, so everything is relative, but then on the other side of the coin, you have ultra-luxury coming in at very low price points with Explora and Silverseas, so they've been very aggressive in their discounting. There's a decent amount of growth in the ultra-luxury space. To me, I think it might be a short-term headwind, especially with the growth of Ritz, but long term, I feel like that just exposes more people to ultra-luxury and the Ritz brand speaks for itself. Without a doubt, demands and commands a very high price point in the market, and you don't have to explain that personal service of Ritz. Everybody knows it, and it's able to demand that high price point.
[[00:31:59]]
Are you aware of whether that ticket price is inclusive of things such as meals, entertainment and excursions? How does that compare to some of the more established luxury players that command a price half that of the Ritz-Carlton?
[[00:32:21]]
Yes, so meals are inclusive on Ritz, but yes, you will get more like a Regent will include air, which Ritz does not include. They'll include limited tours. It's á la carte with Ritz, so that does also create some additional headwinds and some additional costs that add up very quickly. Again, the Ritz brand does command that higher price point, but it could be a decent challenge going up against the legacy players that more inclusions are included vs the Ritz. The Ritz does have limited entertainment vs the legacy folks. There's a lot more big shows and large venues. The Ritz has more of a smaller intimate piano player or singer that will come in that will be included, but not like a main stage production that the legacy players will offer. Again, Ritz is trying to create this yacht-like experience that is maybe not one-for-one with traditional cruising, but more creating a new category of a yacht-like cruising experience.
[[00:34:18]]
You have mentioned a few times that occupancy is going to be the challenge, specifically raising it from where it stands today at around 50%. I believe Ritz-Carlton has set a target of 80% by 2030. How feasible is that goal? What exactly has to go right for the company to get there?
[[00:34:48]]
Yes. I think getting to 80% by 2030 is very feasible. I think one of the biggest factors is maybe… I don't know if you would want to pause growth, but the company has grown very quickly over the past five years and has had significant headwinds with that growth, but getting to that 80% is very doable. Hopefully, if we get out of the current situation quicker with the current geopolitical instability would be a lot more helpful, but I think you could have very positive momentum. You've already seen positive momentum. I think overall, this year, '26 is going to have decent headwinds, but I think in '27, you could have some positive growth and go from there, possibly get to like the 60% range in '27, in '28 get to a 70%, in '29 get to the 80%. I think that is a decent and fair projection to get there, but I think the biggest question mark is the upcoming six months. I think we all would have hoped for things to be completed by now, but if this drags on another year, then it could hamper efforts by a year or so, but I still think you have about a year to play with to get to that 80% target by 2030. I would be fairly bullish that that could be done. It's fairly aggressive, but very doable.
[[00:37:22]]
What do you think the magic break-even number or break-even range is in terms of capacity? I believe I've heard management mention 90% in the past, though that might have been a while ago.
[[00:37:45]]
I feel like you have very positive momentum getting above 70%. Is 90% ideal? Of course, 90% is ideal. 100% is the holy grail, of course, but I think the business fundamentally changes. I keep using that snowball analogy, but I feel like once you get over that 70% hump, getting to 90% is fairly easy. I feel like the difficult part is getting from 50% to 70% with the capacity growth. I think the short term is kind of the key here is getting through the current geopolitical crisis, which none of us could control, keeping the cost high and filling the ships, getting to that 70% to me is kind of getting over the hill, if that makes sense, so getting from 70% to 90% is fairly easy.
[[00:39:01]]
Do you think 90% is what would be required for the three ships as a company to break even?
[[00:39:15]]
No doubt, no doubt that 90% would give a good… Not breakeven. I think 90% would give a good boost back to the business where you could start to pause, not pause, but just reduce the overall marketing costs, so your big ticket costs will lessen once you get to that threshold. Yes, I think 90%-plus is beyond ideal. Again, I think from my past experience, you get a lot of cost benefits getting above 70%. It's not breakeven 70%, but you have a lot of things going in your direction above 70% where you're able to run the business differently. All of those associated costs become lessen when you break that threshold, but ideally, long term, yes, 90% is where you want to be.
[[00:40:43]]
Why do you think getting from 70% to 90% is much easier than moving from 50% to 70%? What is it about going from 70% to 90% that changes the dynamic? Is it driven more by repeat customers and word of mouth? How should we think about that?
[[00:41:01]]
Repeat customers and referrals, exactly are going to accelerate YoY, and every year that the company is in business, you've got a larger and larger base to draw from. The operations become a lot easier and the business self-sustaining once you reach that threshold.
[[00:41:35]]
Ritz-Carlton has reported a 20% repeat customer rate in 2025, which was up from 15% in 2024. Should we be encouraged by that directional progress? Where do you think the company should be, and what target should it ideally be aiming for?
[[00:42:00]]
That's great progress, but just shows the early nature of the business of your legacy carriers, you'll have an 80%-plus repeat rate in a two-year period, so 80% of your guests in ultra-luxury will come back at some point in a two-year period, 2-3-year period, depending on the itinerary, so an extremely high rate, so that just shows you that snowball effect. If they're in the 20% five years down the road, if they can double that, there is your snowball that is just between repeat guests and referrals, your business really hits a critical mass that it's able to sustain itself, so that's a huge, huge opportunity in the next 3-5 years.
[[00:43:24]]
By all accounts, Ritz-Carlton made a huge push in marketing in 2025. I believe the company's marketing spend almost doubled and was equivalent to around 30% of sales. You alluded to the fact that once it reaches 70% occupancy, it can be a bit more flexible with the marketing budget. Assuming Ritz-Carlton hits that 70% mark, do you think its marketing spend will simply remain stable, or could it actually take the opportunity to lower it from that point in absolute terms?
[[00:44:02]]
You're probably not going to want to lower it until you're getting closer to the 90%. I think the marketing spend is going to pay off with the higher ticket prices. I think you have a real opportunity, a unique opportunity to really market to the Bonvoy customer and really promote that campaign. I believe the campaign last year was unlike the rest that went over quite well. They also did a pretty big push direct mail with Alaska that was very effective, and Alaska also delivers a huge premium over like a Caribbean. Yes, for the near term, you're going to have to keep spending to increase the capacity and keep that ticket price high as well as grow that ticket price, and that's tough to do in a new business to have USD 100m spend and walk away with an EBITDA of only USD 20m or USD 30m that's a tough road to run for the next few years, but once you hit that critical mass and the business can sustain itself, you've got an extremely profitable business once that momentum turns or that pendulum turns of your spending cost paying off in sustained yields.
[[00:46:09]]
You mentioned the opportunity to market to the Bonvoy customer. Do you think Ritz-Carlton was slow to leverage the Bonvoy network, or is there quite a bit more that the company can do here in terms of upside?
[[00:46:29]]
Yes. I think that's going to be its number one opportunity going forward. I feel like that is an unlimited huge resource that can only benefit in many ways because with ultra-luxury, you have pre and post packages that can be sustained by the Bonvoy, the Marriott brands, and without a doubt, you have not only the Ritz brand, but St Regis brand, the whole Bonvoy ecosystem can immediately transfer to being a Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection guest very quickly, so that you have a guest that already likes the brand or the product that is probably going to be your easiest conversion out there, someone that knows the brand and knows will easily convert, not easily, but a lot more likely to convert over to the brand. Yes, I feel like maybe they haven't done as much focused attention in the early years, and I think that's going to be the key going forward to get quick, quick conversion or quicker conversion vs just the general population, if that makes sense.
[[00:48:20]]
That's a potentially easy win and benefit for the Ritz-Carlton, but would that not be taking customers away from the Marriott Corporation, or are there clever things that the company can do with Bonvoy working with the Yacht collection so that everyone wins out of this?
[[00:48:42]]
Yes. It could take a little bit away from or eat at its core, but as I mentioned, with ultra-luxury, it's typically not just a cruise, so you're typically doing pre or post packages with hotel. I think the reality in today's market is very likely that like a Ritz-Carlton or even a Bonvoy customer would try a cruise or try an ultra-luxury cruise, why not benefit and have it stay within the ecosystem if they're going to try a cruise. I think it's almost an eventuality in today's world and just being able to market within the ecosystem is going to benefit Bonvoy overall, and Bonvoy, I think, would still benefit by maybe a pre or post package with a Ritz-Carlton hotel before or after a cruise. I think we have many opportunities to still grow the Bonvoy ecosystem.
[[00:50:14]]
Ritz-Carlton's G&A [general and administrative] expenses have been trending up 40% YoY. That is a sizable increase, but it is understandable given that the company is taking new ships on board. Is that something you expect to stabilise – at least while it has three ships – so that it can actually leverage that increased cost over time as capacity picks up? Or do you think Ritz-Carlton will need to continue spending more on SG&A?
[[00:50:46]]
I think it does level out now that you have the three ships. I think there was growing pains bringing on the three ships so quickly, but that does level out. You'll start to see the benefits as we hit that 70% and eventually in the next four years, the 90%-plus, so I don't think it will be as a big a factor as it is currently today.
[[00:51:16]]
Ritz-Carlton spoke about some of that increase being down to enhancing the end-to-end guest experience. What might the company be referring to there?
[[00:51:30]]
Yes. As I alluded to before, the guest experience is absolutely everything. It's the personal service, the ratio. The biggest factor is food. When Ritz-Carlton is delivering Michelin level quality food, especially in today's environment with food costs, that's not easy to do. That super premium food, the prices have risen, and so your overall costs are going to rise with that unless you make cuts to food, so you don't want to cut back on food. Food is a huge driver of the guest experience and will definitely pay you dividends by not cutting on food costs by investing in food cost and investing in that guest experience, the guests will come back again and again. If you're executing at this level and delivering a six-star experience, that you have to do in this business is deliver that six-star experience. If you cut that six-star experience in any way, the guests have way too many options in today's market. They'll go somewhere else if you're not delivering a flawless guest experience.
[[00:53:15]]
You mentioned Four Seasons' entry into the market. I believe you said the company has higher prices and even smaller ships. While you noted that this could potentially be good for long-term demand in the cruise market, how big of a threat could it be in the short term if Ritz-Carlton finds itself stuck in the middle, positioned between Aman and the established players?
[[00:53:54]]
Yes. Yes. Yes, you have the Four Seasons, you have Aman, you have Orient Express coming in with even smaller ships. Yes, they are definitely very, very worthy competitors and will create headwinds within the market. Ultimately, I think it's a positive to have all of these entrants. It just creates more ultra-luxury guests, so I talked about the easiest conversion is from that Bonvoy ecosystem. I think secondly, you're going to be able to be extremely attractive even with Ritz's high price points, it's still going to be substantially lower than a Four Seasons, Aman or even an Orient Express. I think that creates in the next 3-5 years, more of an opportunity even though those three are going to be decent threats within the market, I still think Ritz will be quite well positioned to benefit from getting those guests. I see that as a long-term opportunity just that those guests are coming into the market if that makes sense.
[[00:55:48]]
Is there a genuine first-mover advantage for Ritz-Carlton in the ultra-luxury space, or is it a case of the company doing all the hard work to educate the consumer, ultimately making life easier for Four Seasons and Aman when they enter the market?
[[00:56:04]]
I definitely think you can see how building those past guests within Ritz are going to benefit the brand long term and especially as they grow that, I think that's going to be its biggest advantage. Will they lose guests to Four Seasons, and Aman? Absolutely, but I still think they've got a very good shot of doubling that repeat business. I think in the next 3-5 years, they could easily get to a 50% repeat rate as more and more guests come on, but I feel like them being the first entrant in this yacht-like space definitely puts them in a much, much better position than any of the other three, than the Four Seasons, Aman because, again, they're starting from zero, so it's going to be that much harder to get things moving.
[[00:57:52]]
The priority right now is clearly to raise occupancy to the 70% to 90% range across the three ships. However, is there a broader future for Ritz-Carlton with a larger portfolio of ships, perhaps expanding under different Marriott brands as management has hinted at in the past?
[[00:58:11]]
I think that is an absolute easy growth strategy and could be extremely well received like a St Regis, a W, a Luxury Collection, and I know that those are the plans. I just would do a little bit of a pause to get through this next year to let the geopolitical concerns work themselves out, but I think ultimately, there's an unlimited, not unlimited, but a huge growth story that could be easily replicated with the other Bonvoy brands and could definitely bring success, but I think we need to get that snowball rolling for Ritz before we really push on the gas for the growth of the other brands. I think that's going to be the key. You do not want to impede on that high price without the capacity growth. Capacity growth is the number one thing the company has to be focused on over the next few years, and you don't want to have more capacity growth with other brands and other ships on a material way before you really want to focus on the business, getting it to those benchmarks, getting to the 70% and 90%, but there's no doubt long term, you can absolutely leverage the Bonvoy name and Bonvoy brand to build out this ecosystem.
[[01:00:32]]
We should let you go and wrap things up there, but thank you very much indeed for spending that time with us. It's been incredibly insightful and very, very interesting.
Transcription ends at 01:00:58 of the recorded material
How do you think Ritz-Carlton performed in 2025, and what have we seen in terms of the company's performance so far in 2026? Could you share some thoughts on what went well for it, as well as a few things that perhaps didn't meet its own expectations?
[[00:02:39]]
I'd be glad to detail that. My high-level conclusion of the Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection has demonstrated a very strong product market fit for the guest and pricing level. The company is in a huge growth mode, so they've yet to utilise the fleet utilisation and corporate structure to its benefits because of its huge growth. I feel it's made huge strides this year getting towards profitability. I think they were just shy of USD 100m in Q1, which is, I believe, well over 100% YoY growth and are growing their revenue very quickly. With all of that said, the company has also been growing the inventory very quickly with two new ships in a fairly quick amount of time. I think overall, my summary is that affluential travellers will pay an exceptional rate due to the brand. I think Ritz has come on pretty aggressive pricing, but they've held that pricing. With that said, I think their biggest challenge overall from what I see is just filling that capacity, so getting from the 50% level capacity to 70%, 80%, 90% capacity is probably going to be the biggest challenge for the Ritz-Carlton in the next 3-4 years to grow that capacity and maintain that high price point, I think, is the biggest challenges.
To go back to your original question, I feel that the company has a very strong brand recognition and is demanding a very high ticket cost per day and has had very positive momentum in terms of revenue and ticket growth. The only questions are how much marketing cost is going to take to drive that capacity to 100%, to 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% over the next 3-4 years.
[[00:05:49]]
As you mentioned, Ritz-Carlton's revenue growth has been strong and ticket bookings have been healthy. The company has made significant strides in brand recognition, likely due to its substantial marketing spend. However, to your point, capacity obviously dropped from around 70% to the current 50%. A large part of that is due to absorbing the new ships, which is completely understandable. Do you think that was a larger drop than anticipated, or is it quite normal for a small fleet to experience this when ramping up with so much excess capacity?
[[00:06:27]]
Yes. 70% is not ideal, but it's a lot better than 50%, and when you have all of these fixed costs in cruising, you want to maintain that 70%. I think the biggest factor of dropping to that 50% is keeping the marketing… I believe they're spending about USD 100m a year on marketing and to keep it at that level, but then to triple the fleet over the past few years is definitely one of the major reasons for that drop, but you're still doubling the berths that you've booked YoY. It's still a really good momentum that the brand is carrying, and the multimillion dollar question is keeping that per diem ticket cost high, but ramping up that capacity, so that's the levers that you've got to focus on to get to sustained profitability.
[[00:08:14]]
Do you think that, initially, capacity for even the first ship was a bit slower to build than Ritz-Carlton's own expectations, or perhaps slower than what the industry anticipated? Is there a particular reason for that, or do you think it was actually completely in line with what you would expect when a new ship or a new fleet enters the market?
[[00:08:41]]
I think the biggest reason for the slow capacity growth is the high ticket price. They're coming in at an extremely high, almost double the per diem of the legacy providers, your Regents, Silverseas. You're coming in with ships half the size, so that is the justification of the high exclusivity high ticket price, so you're trying to build a ticket price based on a more niche product that can definitely, and I feel like the company has done a good job of proving that model, and it's just a matter of building that consensus. I mentioned at the top of the hour, my MBA thesis was on growing the cruise market. The cruise market in the US alone, 20-plus years ago was only at 4%, so it's converting those land-based travellers to cruisers. At that high ticket price, that's not done quickly, but it's a snowball effect, and the snowball grows and grows over the years, and there's no doubt that Ritz-Carlton has the brand recognition. It's just a matter of converting those Bonvoy members to cruisers at a very high ticket price, and that does take time to do, so they came in with a very aggressive ticket price. I think they have proved that model. It's just a matter of growing that base.
To go back also to your original question, they may have been a little too aggressive with their targets, having very high targets to fill the capacity from scratch demands a very high cost of marketing to get that snowball going, but once you fill the ships, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy when you have loyal guests that have experienced the product, they will come back again and again. That's why the legacy ultra-luxury cruise lines are able to charge half. They've already got that snowball going over the past 20-30 years.
[[00:11:49]]
What is your outlook for the ultra-luxury cruising industry? This includes the original pioneers, Ritz-Carlton positioning itself at twice the price point, and the new entrants coming in at even higher rates. Is this a sector that you are structurally bullish on?
[[00:12:19]]
I think we have some decent headwinds with the war this year. War is never a positive for travel. It definitely gives a little bit of a pause. Ultra-luxury is a little more insulated than other travel, but just overall war does hamper overall travel, but with that said, there's no real barriers with the events, the world events going on in Iran, there's no real disruption to travel. People can still travel the Mediterranean with little to no regard. Maybe you could say like a Turkey could get a little bit affected, but not really, so it's just more of a perception out there for, I would say, the next 6-12 months, but my overall 3-5-year assessment of the market is extremely positive. I feel like there's an insatiable demand for luxury as well as ultra-luxury. You have an increasing population that is retiring and wanting to travel and has a large amount of disposable income to travel. I feel like the overall 3-5-year perspective is extremely positive.
[[00:14:17]]
What does the customer demographic look like here? It sounds as if it is aimed at individuals who are in or approaching retirement, which has historically been the case. However, given this price point, is it opening the market up to new customers who might not have traditionally been associated with cruising?
[[00:14:44]]
Yes. I think Ritz has done a great job. Yes, the legacy carriers for luxury and ultra-luxury have typically been your retiree, but I feel like all of the ultra-luxury players are trying to bring that number down into the 50s and even 40s and trying to get your working professional onto the product younger, knowing that if they get a younger demographic on there that they'll have a customer rather than acquiring a customer in their 60s or 70s and having a 10 or 20-year window of repeat cruising, going after a 40 or 50-year-old can bring 20-30 to possibly 40 years of repeat business, so that initial cost does pay off. I think Ritz has done a great job of marketing to their Bonvoy members that have the ability to get away for longer periods of time at higher price points and deliver an exceptional experience. It's just a matter of converting them one-time to doing that.
[[00:16:08]]
Could you elaborate on the cost environment? You mentioned the Middle East conflict, and we have seen oil prices spike yet again. Beyond that, what are the various cost pressures facing the industry, or specifically Ritz-Carlton, over the next 12 months or so?
[[00:16:28]]
Yes. Geopolitical itinerary disruption, I don't think travel will be disrupted because not many cruise lines are going into that area, into the Strait of Hormuz, but all of the other factors do get disrupted. Obviously, fuel is the biggest factor in our industry, labour, bringing people to the ship, so flying the staff back and forth is an enormous cost, and when fuel prices go up and airline costs go up, that just immediately adds to the bottom line, not to mention food costs also get affected. All of these factors don't help with the overall expense, the fixed cost of the business, and then on top of it, it does affect somewhat the guests with higher airfare or travel costs, so luxury consumers have a little bit less sensitivity, but still, if equity markets are affected or equity markets go down, that could affect the confidence of that traveller. Those are the pretty big geopolitical factors, the inflation factors, airfare, fuel, labour, food are all fixed costs that can increase the bottom line takeaway of the brand.
[[00:18:41]]
How does a player such as Ritz-Carlton manage that through the P&L? Does the company have no choice but to pass those higher costs on to the customer, or are there mitigation efforts it can implement without compromising the CX?
[[00:19:02]]
Yes. Well, that's an interesting thought. It's hard to mitigate those costs. One thing they're doing, but it's also hurting the business is growing the business, so by growing from one ship to three ships and growing the brand reduces the overall food costs. You can negotiate a little bit on overall costs to the business as the business scales up, but then it also has the harder job of filling more of those cabins, so that's the biggest factor to economies of scale growing the business is the best way to mitigate that. Other than that, the point that you mentioned is correct is you just maintain that high price point and hopefully, you still have to market to the guest strongly to get that snowball going, but it's a tough balancing act with costs rising, fixed costs rising, you have to maintain a very strong marketing presence to fill the increasing capacity and maintain a high price point.
By dropping that price point, yes, you'll have a higher capacity, but you put the overall business in jeopardy if you drop that price point because it's very difficult to raise a price point once it's been dropped. I would say to maintain that price point, continue the efforts, and it looks like from this past Q1 that efforts have really been paying off that the business is growing in the right direction. It just takes time to get that direction going.
[[00:21:18]]
You said you were perhaps a bit surprised by the price point Ritz-Carlton initially established, yet the company is still raising its prices quite significantly – by around 20% in ADR [average daily rate] in 2025, with Q1 2026 rates up 27%. Can it keep this momentum going? I suspect Ritz-Carlton feels its heavy marketing spend warrants it, and the company obviously has to pass price inflation on to the customer. However, it seems to be quite a material rate of increase given how high it is already priced relative to the competition.
[[00:22:02]]
It is extremely aggressive. I think they have justification for it. Like I mentioned, the fleet is well, in many cases, twice as small, sometimes 3x, 4x, 5x as small than another competitor in the ultra-luxury space, so it does command a higher price point, but based on the legacy providers, it is a very high and aggressive price point, but I'm a big fan of spending marketing dollars to fill the ship over a period of time. Even though that's painful to be at a 50% to drop your price to get to 60% or 70% is self-inflicting pain for the short-term gain, so it's a long-term game that you've got to play. There's definitely headwinds with costs as costs have gone up, so that offsetting that is justified, but it's still going to make that capacity growth a slow track up to get back up to 60%, 70%, 80% capacity growth over the next few years, but it's an interesting balance to keep that ticket cost high and grow the capacity, but that's a winning strategy. I do like that strategy, and I would do that strategy myself. I would not want to drop my ticket prices to increase capacity. You'll have a short-term gain, but long-term failure doing that.
[[00:24:31]]
Some of Ritz-Carlton's headline pricing numbers are up 20%-plus YoY, which seems aggressive. How much of that is simply a price increase on the same cruise offered in 2025 vs opening up more premium destinations or different routes that bring an added element of pricing power?
[[00:24:59]]
Well, with the addition of the additional ships, you're able to bring in… One of the strongest ways to increase ticket cost is by bringing in premium routes, and I've definitely seen Ritz-Carlton do that with the Asia, with the ship doing Asia/Alaska, you'll bring in much higher yields vs a Caribbean cruise, so you can get natural ticket growth by doing that and by going to those far-off places that people will pay a huge premium for as well as just growing your regular ticket in the Caribbean by 20%, so when you've got a guest that has experienced that product one time, the first time is the toughest acquisition cost, but once they have experienced the product to get a 20% premium is not easy, but it's a lot easier than getting it from a guest that's never experienced it before. Again, it's that snowball effect that you can still grow, but a 20% growth like in the Caribbean market is very aggressive, is very, very aggressive, especially with the current capacity headwinds.
[[00:26:49]]
Let's come back to your point about how Ritz-Carlton has been able to maintain these high price points, which are twice what some of the more established competitors charge for a ticket. You mentioned the ship is half the size, but what exactly justifies that premium? Is it just having a more intimate ship? Because the ships are smaller, does the company offer exclusive access to different ports? Is there anything else that differentiates and justifies a higher price point for Ritz-Carlton – perhaps in terms of the CX, the quality or the fit-out?
[[00:27:38]]
The service level, the guest to staff ratio is exceptional. For that price point, it should be, but yes, you'll have a much more refined personal service in a ship of 200 people vs on a main competitor would be Explora or Silverseas is going to be in the 400-person range, 450. Crystal Cruises will be in the 600-700 person range, so almost double, and then you get into other competitors like Regent now coming out with 1,200-person ships, so you're looking at 6x the amount of passengers. At this price point, personal service and guest experience are paramount. You're able to deliver that guest experience flawlessly, you get that more of a yacht-like experience with a under 200-person ship and guests will pay for that. The industry is definitely going towards the yacht experience and a similar yacht experience would be in the millions for a week or two. To pay USD 30,000, USD 40,000, USD 50,000 for a week is a great deal compared to private yachting when you get that private yacht experience, which is nice. We're able to deliver a private yacht experience at a 10x lower cost than getting your own yacht.
I think that's kind of the main selling point. The other major factor is the entrance of now becoming live is the Four Seasons. The Four Seasons has even smaller ships and even higher price points, so they're able to ride off of Four Seasons coattails and deliver those higher price points of the 20% YoY growth because of the entrance of people like the Four Seasons, so it's a relative value compared to Four Seasons, so everything is relative, but then on the other side of the coin, you have ultra-luxury coming in at very low price points with Explora and Silverseas, so they've been very aggressive in their discounting. There's a decent amount of growth in the ultra-luxury space. To me, I think it might be a short-term headwind, especially with the growth of Ritz, but long term, I feel like that just exposes more people to ultra-luxury and the Ritz brand speaks for itself. Without a doubt, demands and commands a very high price point in the market, and you don't have to explain that personal service of Ritz. Everybody knows it, and it's able to demand that high price point.
[[00:31:59]]
Are you aware of whether that ticket price is inclusive of things such as meals, entertainment and excursions? How does that compare to some of the more established luxury players that command a price half that of the Ritz-Carlton?
[[00:32:21]]
Yes, so meals are inclusive on Ritz, but yes, you will get more like a Regent will include air, which Ritz does not include. They'll include limited tours. It's á la carte with Ritz, so that does also create some additional headwinds and some additional costs that add up very quickly. Again, the Ritz brand does command that higher price point, but it could be a decent challenge going up against the legacy players that more inclusions are included vs the Ritz. The Ritz does have limited entertainment vs the legacy folks. There's a lot more big shows and large venues. The Ritz has more of a smaller intimate piano player or singer that will come in that will be included, but not like a main stage production that the legacy players will offer. Again, Ritz is trying to create this yacht-like experience that is maybe not one-for-one with traditional cruising, but more creating a new category of a yacht-like cruising experience.
[[00:34:18]]
You have mentioned a few times that occupancy is going to be the challenge, specifically raising it from where it stands today at around 50%. I believe Ritz-Carlton has set a target of 80% by 2030. How feasible is that goal? What exactly has to go right for the company to get there?
[[00:34:48]]
Yes. I think getting to 80% by 2030 is very feasible. I think one of the biggest factors is maybe… I don't know if you would want to pause growth, but the company has grown very quickly over the past five years and has had significant headwinds with that growth, but getting to that 80% is very doable. Hopefully, if we get out of the current situation quicker with the current geopolitical instability would be a lot more helpful, but I think you could have very positive momentum. You've already seen positive momentum. I think overall, this year, '26 is going to have decent headwinds, but I think in '27, you could have some positive growth and go from there, possibly get to like the 60% range in '27, in '28 get to a 70%, in '29 get to the 80%. I think that is a decent and fair projection to get there, but I think the biggest question mark is the upcoming six months. I think we all would have hoped for things to be completed by now, but if this drags on another year, then it could hamper efforts by a year or so, but I still think you have about a year to play with to get to that 80% target by 2030. I would be fairly bullish that that could be done. It's fairly aggressive, but very doable.
[[00:37:22]]
What do you think the magic break-even number or break-even range is in terms of capacity? I believe I've heard management mention 90% in the past, though that might have been a while ago.
[[00:37:45]]
I feel like you have very positive momentum getting above 70%. Is 90% ideal? Of course, 90% is ideal. 100% is the holy grail, of course, but I think the business fundamentally changes. I keep using that snowball analogy, but I feel like once you get over that 70% hump, getting to 90% is fairly easy. I feel like the difficult part is getting from 50% to 70% with the capacity growth. I think the short term is kind of the key here is getting through the current geopolitical crisis, which none of us could control, keeping the cost high and filling the ships, getting to that 70% to me is kind of getting over the hill, if that makes sense, so getting from 70% to 90% is fairly easy.
[[00:39:01]]
Do you think 90% is what would be required for the three ships as a company to break even?
[[00:39:15]]
No doubt, no doubt that 90% would give a good… Not breakeven. I think 90% would give a good boost back to the business where you could start to pause, not pause, but just reduce the overall marketing costs, so your big ticket costs will lessen once you get to that threshold. Yes, I think 90%-plus is beyond ideal. Again, I think from my past experience, you get a lot of cost benefits getting above 70%. It's not breakeven 70%, but you have a lot of things going in your direction above 70% where you're able to run the business differently. All of those associated costs become lessen when you break that threshold, but ideally, long term, yes, 90% is where you want to be.
[[00:40:43]]
Why do you think getting from 70% to 90% is much easier than moving from 50% to 70%? What is it about going from 70% to 90% that changes the dynamic? Is it driven more by repeat customers and word of mouth? How should we think about that?
[[00:41:01]]
Repeat customers and referrals, exactly are going to accelerate YoY, and every year that the company is in business, you've got a larger and larger base to draw from. The operations become a lot easier and the business self-sustaining once you reach that threshold.
[[00:41:35]]
Ritz-Carlton has reported a 20% repeat customer rate in 2025, which was up from 15% in 2024. Should we be encouraged by that directional progress? Where do you think the company should be, and what target should it ideally be aiming for?
[[00:42:00]]
That's great progress, but just shows the early nature of the business of your legacy carriers, you'll have an 80%-plus repeat rate in a two-year period, so 80% of your guests in ultra-luxury will come back at some point in a two-year period, 2-3-year period, depending on the itinerary, so an extremely high rate, so that just shows you that snowball effect. If they're in the 20% five years down the road, if they can double that, there is your snowball that is just between repeat guests and referrals, your business really hits a critical mass that it's able to sustain itself, so that's a huge, huge opportunity in the next 3-5 years.
[[00:43:24]]
By all accounts, Ritz-Carlton made a huge push in marketing in 2025. I believe the company's marketing spend almost doubled and was equivalent to around 30% of sales. You alluded to the fact that once it reaches 70% occupancy, it can be a bit more flexible with the marketing budget. Assuming Ritz-Carlton hits that 70% mark, do you think its marketing spend will simply remain stable, or could it actually take the opportunity to lower it from that point in absolute terms?
[[00:44:02]]
You're probably not going to want to lower it until you're getting closer to the 90%. I think the marketing spend is going to pay off with the higher ticket prices. I think you have a real opportunity, a unique opportunity to really market to the Bonvoy customer and really promote that campaign. I believe the campaign last year was unlike the rest that went over quite well. They also did a pretty big push direct mail with Alaska that was very effective, and Alaska also delivers a huge premium over like a Caribbean. Yes, for the near term, you're going to have to keep spending to increase the capacity and keep that ticket price high as well as grow that ticket price, and that's tough to do in a new business to have USD 100m spend and walk away with an EBITDA of only USD 20m or USD 30m that's a tough road to run for the next few years, but once you hit that critical mass and the business can sustain itself, you've got an extremely profitable business once that momentum turns or that pendulum turns of your spending cost paying off in sustained yields.
[[00:46:09]]
You mentioned the opportunity to market to the Bonvoy customer. Do you think Ritz-Carlton was slow to leverage the Bonvoy network, or is there quite a bit more that the company can do here in terms of upside?
[[00:46:29]]
Yes. I think that's going to be its number one opportunity going forward. I feel like that is an unlimited huge resource that can only benefit in many ways because with ultra-luxury, you have pre and post packages that can be sustained by the Bonvoy, the Marriott brands, and without a doubt, you have not only the Ritz brand, but St Regis brand, the whole Bonvoy ecosystem can immediately transfer to being a Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection guest very quickly, so that you have a guest that already likes the brand or the product that is probably going to be your easiest conversion out there, someone that knows the brand and knows will easily convert, not easily, but a lot more likely to convert over to the brand. Yes, I feel like maybe they haven't done as much focused attention in the early years, and I think that's going to be the key going forward to get quick, quick conversion or quicker conversion vs just the general population, if that makes sense.
[[00:48:20]]
That's a potentially easy win and benefit for the Ritz-Carlton, but would that not be taking customers away from the Marriott Corporation, or are there clever things that the company can do with Bonvoy working with the Yacht collection so that everyone wins out of this?
[[00:48:42]]
Yes. It could take a little bit away from or eat at its core, but as I mentioned, with ultra-luxury, it's typically not just a cruise, so you're typically doing pre or post packages with hotel. I think the reality in today's market is very likely that like a Ritz-Carlton or even a Bonvoy customer would try a cruise or try an ultra-luxury cruise, why not benefit and have it stay within the ecosystem if they're going to try a cruise. I think it's almost an eventuality in today's world and just being able to market within the ecosystem is going to benefit Bonvoy overall, and Bonvoy, I think, would still benefit by maybe a pre or post package with a Ritz-Carlton hotel before or after a cruise. I think we have many opportunities to still grow the Bonvoy ecosystem.
[[00:50:14]]
Ritz-Carlton's G&A [general and administrative] expenses have been trending up 40% YoY. That is a sizable increase, but it is understandable given that the company is taking new ships on board. Is that something you expect to stabilise – at least while it has three ships – so that it can actually leverage that increased cost over time as capacity picks up? Or do you think Ritz-Carlton will need to continue spending more on SG&A?
[[00:50:46]]
I think it does level out now that you have the three ships. I think there was growing pains bringing on the three ships so quickly, but that does level out. You'll start to see the benefits as we hit that 70% and eventually in the next four years, the 90%-plus, so I don't think it will be as a big a factor as it is currently today.
[[00:51:16]]
Ritz-Carlton spoke about some of that increase being down to enhancing the end-to-end guest experience. What might the company be referring to there?
[[00:51:30]]
Yes. As I alluded to before, the guest experience is absolutely everything. It's the personal service, the ratio. The biggest factor is food. When Ritz-Carlton is delivering Michelin level quality food, especially in today's environment with food costs, that's not easy to do. That super premium food, the prices have risen, and so your overall costs are going to rise with that unless you make cuts to food, so you don't want to cut back on food. Food is a huge driver of the guest experience and will definitely pay you dividends by not cutting on food costs by investing in food cost and investing in that guest experience, the guests will come back again and again. If you're executing at this level and delivering a six-star experience, that you have to do in this business is deliver that six-star experience. If you cut that six-star experience in any way, the guests have way too many options in today's market. They'll go somewhere else if you're not delivering a flawless guest experience.
[[00:53:15]]
You mentioned Four Seasons' entry into the market. I believe you said the company has higher prices and even smaller ships. While you noted that this could potentially be good for long-term demand in the cruise market, how big of a threat could it be in the short term if Ritz-Carlton finds itself stuck in the middle, positioned between Aman and the established players?
[[00:53:54]]
Yes. Yes. Yes, you have the Four Seasons, you have Aman, you have Orient Express coming in with even smaller ships. Yes, they are definitely very, very worthy competitors and will create headwinds within the market. Ultimately, I think it's a positive to have all of these entrants. It just creates more ultra-luxury guests, so I talked about the easiest conversion is from that Bonvoy ecosystem. I think secondly, you're going to be able to be extremely attractive even with Ritz's high price points, it's still going to be substantially lower than a Four Seasons, Aman or even an Orient Express. I think that creates in the next 3-5 years, more of an opportunity even though those three are going to be decent threats within the market, I still think Ritz will be quite well positioned to benefit from getting those guests. I see that as a long-term opportunity just that those guests are coming into the market if that makes sense.
[[00:55:48]]
Is there a genuine first-mover advantage for Ritz-Carlton in the ultra-luxury space, or is it a case of the company doing all the hard work to educate the consumer, ultimately making life easier for Four Seasons and Aman when they enter the market?
[[00:56:04]]
I definitely think you can see how building those past guests within Ritz are going to benefit the brand long term and especially as they grow that, I think that's going to be its biggest advantage. Will they lose guests to Four Seasons, and Aman? Absolutely, but I still think they've got a very good shot of doubling that repeat business. I think in the next 3-5 years, they could easily get to a 50% repeat rate as more and more guests come on, but I feel like them being the first entrant in this yacht-like space definitely puts them in a much, much better position than any of the other three, than the Four Seasons, Aman because, again, they're starting from zero, so it's going to be that much harder to get things moving.
[[00:57:52]]
The priority right now is clearly to raise occupancy to the 70% to 90% range across the three ships. However, is there a broader future for Ritz-Carlton with a larger portfolio of ships, perhaps expanding under different Marriott brands as management has hinted at in the past?
[[00:58:11]]
I think that is an absolute easy growth strategy and could be extremely well received like a St Regis, a W, a Luxury Collection, and I know that those are the plans. I just would do a little bit of a pause to get through this next year to let the geopolitical concerns work themselves out, but I think ultimately, there's an unlimited, not unlimited, but a huge growth story that could be easily replicated with the other Bonvoy brands and could definitely bring success, but I think we need to get that snowball rolling for Ritz before we really push on the gas for the growth of the other brands. I think that's going to be the key. You do not want to impede on that high price without the capacity growth. Capacity growth is the number one thing the company has to be focused on over the next few years, and you don't want to have more capacity growth with other brands and other ships on a material way before you really want to focus on the business, getting it to those benchmarks, getting to the 70% and 90%, but there's no doubt long term, you can absolutely leverage the Bonvoy name and Bonvoy brand to build out this ecosystem.
[[01:00:32]]
We should let you go and wrap things up there, but thank you very much indeed for spending that time with us. It's been incredibly insightful and very, very interesting.
Transcription ends at 01:00:58 of the recorded material
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