🇺🇸 SECAllstateDoubao · 实盘不做把握 7/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·🕒 发布 19:41:31·⟳ 抓取 19:41:52 +21s·⚡ 决策 10-15 19:43:18 +1m26s·12.2 天前
好事达披露2026年9月预估巨灾损失2.20亿美元(税后1.73亿),Q3累计16.5亿美元,系每月例行发布
这是Allstate按月雷打不动发布的巨灾损失预估(Reg FD furnished,非filed)。Q3累计16.5亿美元中7、8月部分已在之前月度发布披露,本次真正新增仅为9月2.20亿/税后1.73亿美元,属正常财险经营数据,随已知风暴季被市场提前建模;没有指引调整、没有超预期证据,单月税后损失对ALL盈利与市值基数不构成重大边际冲击,不具备可交易正期望。
📄 原文Allstate↗ 原文
----- all-20261015.htm ----- UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 8-K CURRENT R…
不做 The Allstate Corporation(ALL.US)
每月例行巨灾损失预估,新增仅9月税后1.73亿美元,Q3累计多为此前已披露月份;随已知风暴季被提前建模,无指引调整、无超预期证据,缺乏短线预期差与可交易edge。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
Allstate例行月度巨灾损失披露,新增仅9月税后1.73亿美元,Q3累计多为此前已公布月份加总;无超预期、无指引变化,属可预期经营数据,不做。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-15 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 无可靠做多或做空催化:月度巨灾损失为常规、可预期披露,9月单月增量量级有限。
主要风险
- 若9月/Q3损失实际显著高于卖方模型(飓风季超预期),股价或在盘前承压,但当前无证据支持该预期差。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-10-15 · 影响 invalidates
新闻稿未提示损失超出预期或下调盈利指引,9月税后1.73亿美元单月量级对ALL不构成重大净损害,做空强催化不成立。
检索:Allstate September 2026 catastrophe losses versus expectations guidance 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:未改变结论:新增信息仅单月例行数据,缺乏预期差,直接AVOID。
方向:未运行先例统计:常规月度巨灾损失披露已在事实层判定无可交易edge,先例不会改变AVOID结论。
涨幅量级:无高相似对齐样本;不据以为交易定价。
形态:未评估
工具执行结果 · 成功 1 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 11 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`allstate q3 2026 catastrophe losses $1.65 billion 8-k | allstate september 2026 catastrophe losses $220 million monthly release`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选,不能据此证明消息首发或不是重复;按当前事件继续正常研判。"}
原文全文
展开原文 · 6,049 字
----- all-20261015.htm -----
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM
8-K
CURRENT REPORT
PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15 (d) OF THE
SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
Date of report (Date of earliest event reported):
October 15, 2026
THE
ALLSTATE CORP
ORATION
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
Delaware
1-11840
36-3871531
(State or other
jurisdiction of incorporation)
(Commission
File Number)
(IRS Employer
Identification No.)
3100 Sanders Road
,
Northbrook
,
Illinois
60062
(Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code
(
847
)
402-2800
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:
☐
Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
☐
Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
☐
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
☐
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
Title of each class
Trading Symbols
Name of each exchange on which registered
Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share
ALL
New York Stock Exchange
NYSE Texas
5.100% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Debentures due 2053
ALL.PR.B
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares represent 1/1,000th of a share of 5.100% Noncumulative Preferred Stock, Series H
ALL PR H
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares represent 1/1,000th of a share of 4.750% Noncumulative Preferred Stock, Series I
ALL PR I
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares represent 1/1,000th of a share of 7.375% Noncumulative Preferred Stock, Series J
ALL PR J
New York Stock Exchange
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).
Emerging growth company
☐
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ____
Section 7 - Regulation FD
Item 7.01. Regulation FD Disclosure
The Registrant’s September 2026 monthly release announcing estimated catastrophe losses is posted on allstateinvestors.com and attached hereto as Exhibit 99 which is incorporated herein by reference. This exhibit is furnished and not filed, pursuant to Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K.
Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits
Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits
(d) Exhibits
Exhibit No.
Description
99
The Registrant’s press release dated October 15, 2026
104
Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as inline XBRL)
2
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
THE ALLSTATE CORPORATION
(Registrant)
By:
/s/ Eric K. Ferren
Name: Eric K. Ferren
Title: Senior Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer
Date:
Oct. 15, 2026
3
----- exhibit99newsrelease101526.htm -----
EX-99
2
exhibit99newsrelease101526.htm
EX-99
Document
NEWS
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contacts:
Nick Nottoli
Allister Gobin
Media Relations
Investor Relations
mediateam@allstate.com
invrel@allstate.com
September 2026 Monthly Release
NORTHBROOK, Ill., Oct. 15, 2026 – The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) today announced estimated catastrophe losses for the month of September of $220 million or $173 million, after-tax. Total catastrophe losses for the third quarter were $1.65 billion or $1.30 billion, after-tax.
Financial information, including material announcements about The Allstate Corporation, is routinely posted on www.allstateinvestors.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This news release contains “forward-looking statements” that anticipate results based on our estimates, assumptions and plans that are subject to uncertainty. These statements are made subject to the safe-harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and may be identified by their use of words like “plans,” “seeks,” “expects,” “will,” “should,” “anticipates,” “estimates,” “intends,” “believes,” “likely,” “targets” and other words with similar meanings. We believe these statements are based on reasonable estimates, assumptions and plans. However, if the estimates, assumptions or plans underlying the forward-looking statements prove inaccurate or if other risks or uncertainties arise, actual results could differ materially from those communicated in these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, the forward-looking statements may be found in our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including the “Risk Factors” section in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K. Forward-looking statements are as of the date on which they are made, and we assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement.
About Allstate
The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) protects people from life’s uncertainties with affordable, simple and connected protection for autos, homes, electronic devices, and identities. Products are available through a broad distribution network including Allstate agents, independent agents, major retailers, online, and at the workplace. Allstate has 216 million policies in force and is widely known for the slogan “You’re in Good Hands with Allstate.” For more information, visit www.allstate.com.
# # # #
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM
8-K
CURRENT REPORT
PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15 (d) OF THE
SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
Date of report (Date of earliest event reported):
October 15, 2026
THE
ALLSTATE CORP
ORATION
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
Delaware
1-11840
36-3871531
(State or other
jurisdiction of incorporation)
(Commission
File Number)
(IRS Employer
Identification No.)
3100 Sanders Road
,
Northbrook
,
Illinois
60062
(Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code
(
847
)
402-2800
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:
☐
Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
☐
Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
☐
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
☐
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
Title of each class
Trading Symbols
Name of each exchange on which registered
Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share
ALL
New York Stock Exchange
NYSE Texas
5.100% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Debentures due 2053
ALL.PR.B
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares represent 1/1,000th of a share of 5.100% Noncumulative Preferred Stock, Series H
ALL PR H
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares represent 1/1,000th of a share of 4.750% Noncumulative Preferred Stock, Series I
ALL PR I
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares represent 1/1,000th of a share of 7.375% Noncumulative Preferred Stock, Series J
ALL PR J
New York Stock Exchange
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).
Emerging growth company
☐
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ____
Section 7 - Regulation FD
Item 7.01. Regulation FD Disclosure
The Registrant’s September 2026 monthly release announcing estimated catastrophe losses is posted on allstateinvestors.com and attached hereto as Exhibit 99 which is incorporated herein by reference. This exhibit is furnished and not filed, pursuant to Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K.
Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits
Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits
(d) Exhibits
Exhibit No.
Description
99
The Registrant’s press release dated October 15, 2026
104
Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as inline XBRL)
2
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
THE ALLSTATE CORPORATION
(Registrant)
By:
/s/ Eric K. Ferren
Name: Eric K. Ferren
Title: Senior Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer
Date:
Oct. 15, 2026
3
----- exhibit99newsrelease101526.htm -----
EX-99
2
exhibit99newsrelease101526.htm
EX-99
Document
NEWS
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contacts:
Nick Nottoli
Allister Gobin
Media Relations
Investor Relations
mediateam@allstate.com
invrel@allstate.com
September 2026 Monthly Release
NORTHBROOK, Ill., Oct. 15, 2026 – The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) today announced estimated catastrophe losses for the month of September of $220 million or $173 million, after-tax. Total catastrophe losses for the third quarter were $1.65 billion or $1.30 billion, after-tax.
Financial information, including material announcements about The Allstate Corporation, is routinely posted on www.allstateinvestors.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This news release contains “forward-looking statements” that anticipate results based on our estimates, assumptions and plans that are subject to uncertainty. These statements are made subject to the safe-harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and may be identified by their use of words like “plans,” “seeks,” “expects,” “will,” “should,” “anticipates,” “estimates,” “intends,” “believes,” “likely,” “targets” and other words with similar meanings. We believe these statements are based on reasonable estimates, assumptions and plans. However, if the estimates, assumptions or plans underlying the forward-looking statements prove inaccurate or if other risks or uncertainties arise, actual results could differ materially from those communicated in these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, the forward-looking statements may be found in our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including the “Risk Factors” section in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K. Forward-looking statements are as of the date on which they are made, and we assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement.
About Allstate
The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) protects people from life’s uncertainties with affordable, simple and connected protection for autos, homes, electronic devices, and identities. Products are available through a broad distribution network including Allstate agents, independent agents, major retailers, online, and at the workplace. Allstate has 216 million policies in force and is widely known for the slogan “You’re in Good Hands with Allstate.” For more information, visit www.allstate.com.
# # # #
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