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🇺🇸 SECCapital OneDoubao · 实盘不做把握 6/10不做原因:已被定价
北京时间·🕒 发布 04:06:56·⟳ 抓取 04:07:30 +34s·⚡ 决策 10-21 05:11:41 +1h04m·6.8 天前

Capital One 9月信用卡净坏账率降至3.66%(8月4.16%),盘后一度涨超4.5%已即时定价

这是常规月度Reg FD信用指标披露,核心改善(信用卡NCO 4.16%→3.66%)方向正面但单月受债务出售/回收波动扰动;盘后股价已从201.56冲至210.64(+4.5%,盘中一度216.42),市场在文件发布当刻完成同向重定价,次日开盘追高的风险收益比不足。

📄 原文Capital One↗ 原文
----- cof-20261020.htm ----- UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 __________________…
不做 Capital One Financial Corporation(COF.US)
已price-in:常规月度Reg FD信用指标,信用卡NCO环比改善约50bp方向正面但含债务出售/回收噪音;盘后1小时内已放量涨4.5%(高点+7.4%后回落),次日开盘追高风险收益比不足,无剩余edge。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

9月信用卡NCO率较8月大幅回落约50bp,是边际正面信号;但属常规月度数据且含债务出售噪音,盘后已即时涨4.5%、冲高回落,无剩余edge,不追。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-20 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 high ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-10-20 16:06 ET首发SEC EDGAR (8-K Item 7.01, Exhibit 99.1)一手源原文 ↗
    公司法定披露9月月度坏账/逾期指标,盘后16:06提交
    市场反应:盘后股价由收盘201.56升至约210.64(+4.5%),盘中高点216.42,盘后量约31万股

关键理由

  • 本土信用卡年化NCO率3.66%显著低于8月4.16%,叠加逾期率3.74%,指向短期信用成本压力缓解
  • 盘后放量31万股、+4.5%,证明改善被市场在文件发布当刻即时定价

主要风险

  • NCO受回收及债务出售时点影响,单月50bp改善未必可持续,存在后续月份回补风险
  • 盘后高点216.42已回落至210.6,若改善被解读为一次性,次日易高开低走

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-10-20 · 影响 weakens
    8-K附件脚注明确NCO周期性受回收波动(含债务出售)影响,单月下降可能含一次性成分,削弱趋势确定性
    检索:Capital One September 2026 charge-off debt sale recovery distortion / credit deterioration 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:因当期盘后已即时重定价且先例不足,放弃追高,不据此设ENTER的tp/sl

方向:未构建足量对齐先例;月度信用指标披露属高频常规数据,市场通常在盘后数小时内完成定价

涨幅量级:对齐样本不足,不用历史涨幅校准tp/sl;本次盘后+4.5%已提供直接的当期价格反应证据

形态:无法据先例判定见光死,但盘后冲高(216.42)回落至210.6本身显示上方抛压

工具执行结果 · 成功 4 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
  1. search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 14 ms
    {"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`capital one september 2026 monthly charge-off delinquency metrics 8-k | cof credit card net charge-off rate 3.66% september 2026`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选,不能据此证明消息首发或不是重复;按当前事件继续正常研判。"}
  2. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,596 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Capital One monthly charge-off delinquency metrics August 2026 credit card net charge-off rate;API SearchType:web)
  3. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,478 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Capital One August 2026 credit card 30+ day delinquency rate 4. domestic monthly metrics;API SearchType:web)
  4. stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 385 ms
    {

原文全文

展开原文 · 6,496 字
----- cof-20261020.htm -----
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
____________________________________
FORM
8-K
____________________________________
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of
The Securities Exchange Act of 1934
October 20, 2026
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported)
____________________________________
CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP
ORATION
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
____________________________________
Delaware
001-13300
54-1719854
(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation)
(Commission File Number)
(IRS Employer Identification No.)
1680 Capital One Drive,
McLean,
Virginia
22102
(Address of principal executive offices)
(Zip Code)
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (
703
)
720-1000
(Not applicable)
(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)
____________________________________
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):
☐
Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
☐
Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
☐
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
☐
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
Title of Each Class
Trading Symbol(s)
Name of Each Exchange on Which Registered
Common Stock (par value $.01 per share)
COF
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares, Each Representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of Fixed Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series I
COF PRI
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares, Each Representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of Fixed Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series J
COF PRJ
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares, Each Representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of Fixed Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series K
COF PRK
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares, Each Representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of Fixed Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series L
COF PRL
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares, Each Representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of Fixed Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series N
COF PRN
New York Stock Exchange
1.650% Senior Notes Due 2029
COF29
New York Stock Exchange
4.326% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes Due 2032
COF32
New York Stock Exchange
4.832% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes Due 2037
COF37
New York Stock Exchange
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).
Emerging growth company
☐
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.
☐
Item 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure.
Capital One Financial Corporation (the “Company”) hereby furnishes the information in Exhibit 99.1 hereto, Monthly Charge-Off and Delinquency Metrics - As of and for the month ended September 30, 2026.
Note:
Information in this report (including the exhibit) furnished pursuant to Item 7.01 shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. This report will not be deemed an admission as to the materiality of any information in the report that is required to be disclosed solely by Regulation FD. Furthermore, the information provided in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
Item 9.01
Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(d) Exhibits
Exhibit No.
Description
99.1
Monthly Charge-Off and Delinquency Metrics - As of and for the month ended
September
3
0
, 2026
104
The cover page from this Current Report on Form 8-K, formatted in Inline XBRL
1
SIGNATURE
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Company has duly caused this Current Report on Form 8-K to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORPORATION
Date:
October 20, 2026
By:
/s/ TIMOTHY P. GOLDEN
Timothy P. Golden
Chief Accounting Officer
2

----- ex991september2026creditme.htm -----
EX-99.1
2
ex991september2026creditme.htm
EX-99.1
Document
Exhibit 99.1
Capital One Financial Corporation
Monthly Charge-Off and Delinquency Metrics
As of and for the month ended September 30, 2026
Loans Held for Investment
Net Charge-Offs
30+ Day Performing Delinquencies
Nonperforming Loans
(Dollars in millions, except as noted)
Average
Period-End
Amount
Rate
(1)
Amount
Rate
(2)
Amount
Rate
(3)
Credit Card:
(4)
Domestic
$
257,744
$
260,252
$
787
3.66
%
$
9,741
3.74
%
N/A
N/A
Consumer Banking:
Auto
92,450
92,901
125
1.62
4,314
4.64
$
603
0.65
%
___________________
(1)
Net charge-off rate is calculated by dividing annualized net charge-offs for the period by average loans held for investment during the period for the specified loan category. Net charge-offs and the net charge-off rate are impacted periodically by fluctuations in recoveries, including impacts of debt sales.
(2)
30+ day performing delinquency rate is calculated by dividing 30+ day performing delinquent loans as of the end of the period by period-end loans held for investment for the specified loan category.
(3)
Nonperforming loan rate is calculated by dividing nonperforming loans as of the end of the period by period-end loans held for investment for the specified loan category.
(4)
Period-end loans held for investment and average loans held for investment include billed finance charges and fees. We recognize billed finance charges and fee income on open-ended loans in accordance with the contractual provisions of the credit arrangements and estimate the uncollectible amount on a quarterly basis. Billed finance charges and fees that are ultimately uncollectible are reflected as a reduction in revenue and not included in our net charge-offs.

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