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🇺🇸 SECTAIWAN SEMICOND ADSQwen · 实盘不做把握 3/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·🕒 发布 18:15:36待核·⟳ 抓取 18:16:05·⚡ 决策 09-10 22:27:27 +4h11m·46.9 天前

台积电8月合并营收创纪录约5148亿新台币,环比+10.1%、同比+53.3%,1-8月累计同比+39.3%,以6-K形式向SEC备案

跨源查重命中同一具体催化:内部已处理消息库2026-09-10 06:28 UTC的TrendForce记录已完整覆盖本次8月营收的全部关键数字(5148亿新台币、环比+10.1%、同比+53.3%、1-8月累计+39.3%)并判定不做。本条SEC 6-K只是同一营收公告的一手法务备案载体,除常规放款/担保/衍生品余额外没有任何新增金额、指引修正或订单事实,不满足“新增事实”豁免。同时TSM.US在美股盘中报427.47美元、跌1.81%(盘前一度-2.01%),创纪录营收并未带来同向重定价,反而呈见光即回落,说明该催化已被市场提前消化。叠加超大市值(约2.22万亿美元)主标的的计划性月度软催化、无相对一致预期的可验证预期差,无正期望短线交易结构,故AVOID。

📄 原文TAIWAN SEMICOND ADS↗ 原文
----- tsm-revenue20260910.htm ----- 6-K 1 tsm-revenue20260910.htm 6-K Document 1934 Act Registration No. 1-14700 UNITED…
不做 台积电ADR(TSM.US)
查重命中同一具体催化:内部已处理库2026-09-10 06:28 UTC的TrendForce记录已含全部相同数字(5148亿新台币、+10.1% MoM、+53.3% YoY、1-8月+39.3%)并判不做;本条6-K无新增金额、指引或订单。月度营收为计划性披露,对约2.22万亿美元市值、PE(TTM)41倍的主体缺乏可验证预期差,且美股盘中TSM.US已下跌1.81%(量比0.8)呈见光回落,无正期望做多结构;基本面方向正面、无强空催化,不满足做空红线,故不反向开空
不做 台积电(台股)(2330.TW)
同一营收催化在台股当日已交易完毕,此刻台股盘后不可成交;下一交易日无残留边际信息,且无新增指引或订单事实,无可执行窗口
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

事实:台积电8月合并营收NT$514.81亿元(+10.1% MoM / +53.3% YoY),1-8月累计NT$3,386.87亿元(+39.3% YoY),以6-K向SEC备案,未附带任何指引或订单增量。影响链:单月营收创新高确认AI/HPC与2nm需求强劲,但月度营收是每月10日前后的计划性披露,市场一致预期与卖方模型早已内嵌该轨迹;对约2.22万亿美元市值、PE(TTM)约41倍的主体,一条无预期差的例行数据不足以推动盈利或估值重估。价格证据:TSM.US现价427.47美元、当日-1.81%,盘前-2.01%,夜盘/盘后区间亦无同向放大成交(vol_spike_x 0.8,20日日均成交额约38.8亿美元),近13周轨迹100→103属横盘,创纪录营收当日反被卖出。查重证据:内部已处理库2026-09-10 06:28 UTC的TrendForce同题记录数字完全一致并判不做。结论:无增量事实、无预期差、市场已实时反向定价、台股与A/港股均已收盘,AVOID。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-09-10 · 扩散 high · price-in 风险 high ↗

关键理由

  • 同一8月营收催化在约8小时前已由内部记录处理并判定不做,本次6-K未带来任何新增金额、指引或订单事实
  • 月度营收属计划性披露,+53.3% YoY虽强劲但未提供可验证的相对一致预期差,对2.22万亿美元市值主体的短线弹性不足
  • 美股盘中TSM.US反而下跌1.81%、量比0.8,创纪录营收未引发同向重定价,呈典型见光回落

主要风险

  • 若后续卖方把8月超预期数据上修至Q3/全年盈利模型并伴随指引上调,可能在10月中旬法说会前后形成第二波重定价,但那属于新的催化而非本条
  • 本条不做不代表基本面看空:需求侧(AI/HPC、2nm)仍强,若据此建立空头则违反做空红线

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 search_processed_events · 日期 2026-09-10 · 影响 weakens
    未找到任何相对一致预期的可验证预期差证据;同题内部记录明确判定为计划性月度数据与超大市值软催化,不足以支撑短线新仓
    检索:台积电 8月营收 市场预期 超预期 一致预期 卖方上修
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-09-10 · 影响 weakens
    TSM.US盘中427.47美元、-1.81%,盘前低见426.44美元、-2.01%,量比0.8、无放量承接;近13周轨迹100→103为横盘,创纪录营收未带来同向重定价,反呈见光回落
    检索:TSM.US 实时价格与盘前/盘中反应 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:未改变结论;因命中同一具体催化的已处理记录且无新增事实,按查重早停契约不再补充外部先例检索

方向:未取先例统计;本次以查重早停与实时价格反应为判据——同类计划性月度营收披露对超大市值主标的的短线方向影响弱,本例盘中直接下跌

涨幅量级:无高相似、锚干净的先例用于校准幅度;当前价格行为(当日-1.81%)本身即显示幅度接近于零甚至为负

形态:本次已呈现见光回落特征:营收创纪录但股价下跌、量比0.8,符合计划性数据被提前定价后的派发形态

工具执行结果 · 成功 4 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
  1. search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 99 ms
    {"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`tsmc august 2026 revenue report 6-k | tsmc 台积电 2026年8月 月度营收 | 台积电 1-8月累计营收 年增39.3% | 台积电 8月营收 5148亿 新台币 年增53.3%`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 48.5/72 小时、1576 条本臂决策(完整),返回 13 条候选。\n• 09-10 06:28 UTC(CST 14:28) [ticker] 不做 TSM.US (trendforce) — [News] TSMC
  2. fetch_decision_experience 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 10 ms
    {
  3. stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 592 ms
    {
  4. search_case_library 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 48 ms
    {"result": "search_case_library「2330.TW,TSM.US」无历史决策命中(我们过去没在这些标的上决策过,或历史尚未回填)。\n◆ 2330.TW:相关历史决策 612 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 6 条(1.0%) · 已结算 6 笔 · 胜率 33% · 中位 -3.16% · 均值 -1.76% ⚠️只有 6 笔,样本太薄,只能当线索不能当规律\n◆ TSM.US:相关历史决策 478 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 22 条(4.6%) · 已结算 22 笔 · 胜率 50% · 中位 -0.03% · 均值 -0.20%\n↑ 胜率/收益口径:E

原文全文

展开原文 · 5,802 字
----- tsm-revenue20260910.htm -----
6-K
1
tsm-revenue20260910.htm
6-K
Document
1934 Act Registration No. 1-14700
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, DC 20549
_____________________________
FORM 6-K
_____________________________
REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER
PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16 UNDER
THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
For the month of September 2026
(Commission File Number: 001-14700)
_____________________________
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
(Translation of Registrant’s Name Into English)
_____________________________
No. 8, Li-Hsin Road 6
Hsinchu Science Park
Hsinchu 300-096, Taiwan
Republic of China
(Address of Principal Executive Offices)
_____________________________
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under cover of Form 20-F or Form 40-F.
Form 20-F
x
Form 40-F
o
Indicate by check mark if the registrant is submitting the Form 6-K in papers as permitted by Regulation S-T Rule 101(b)(1):
o
Indicate by check mark if the registrant is submitting the Form 6-K in papers as permitted by Regulation S-T Rule 101(b)(7):
o
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Date: September 10, 2026
By
/s/ Wendell Huang
Wendell Huang
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
TSMC August 2026 Revenue Report
HSINCHU, Taiwan, R.O.C. – September 10, 2026 -
TSMC (TWSE: 2330, NYSE: TSM) today announced its net revenue for August 2026: On a consolidated basis, revenue for August 2026 was approximately NT$514.81 billion, an increase of 10.1 percent from July 2026 and an increase of 53.3 percent from August 2025. Revenue for January through August 2026 totaled NT$3,386.87 billion, an increase of 39.3 percent compared to the same period in 2025.
TSMC August Revenue Report (Consolidated):
(Unit:NT$ million)
Period
August 2026
July 2026
M-o-M
Increase
(Decrease)
%
August 2025
Y-o-Y
Increase
(Decrease)
%
January to August 2026
January to August 2025
Y-o-Y
Increase
(Decrease)
%
Net Revenue
514,806
467,580
10.1
335,772
53.3
3,386,870
2,431,983
39.3
TSMC Spokesperson:
TSMC Media Contacts
Wendell Huang
Senior Vice President and CFO
Nina Kao
Head of Public Relations
Tel: 886-3-563-6688 ext.7125036
Mobile: 886-988-239-163
E-Mail: press@tsmc.com
Ulric Kelly
Public Relations
Tel: 886-3-563-6688 ext.7126541
Mobile: 886-978-111-503
E-Mail: press@tsmc.com
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
This is to report the changes or status of 1) revenue, 2) funds lent to other parties, 3) endorsements and guarantees, and 4) financial derivative transactions for August 2026 (“Current Month”).
Note: “Outstanding” herein means the outstanding balance at the end of Current Month; and “Cumulative” herein represents the accumulated amounts from the beginning of this year till the end of Current Month.
1.
Revenue (in NT$ thousands)
Period
Items
2026
2025
Aug.
Net Revenue
514,805,337
335,771,691
Jan.~Aug.
Net Revenue
3,386,869,575
2,431,982,931
2. Funds lent to other parties (in NT$ thousands)
Lending Company
Limit of lending
Amount approved by the Board of Directors
Outstanding amount
TSMC Development*
34,352,432
3,797,160
2,847,870
* The borrower is TSMC Washington, a wholly-owned subsidiary of TSMC.
3. Endorsements and guarantees (in NT$ thousands)
Guarantor
Limit of guarantee
Amount approved by the Board of Directors
Outstanding amount
TSMC*
2,573,007,334
2,633,118
2,633,118
TSMC**
170,872,200
170,872,200
TSMC***
483,851,076
346,948,663
* The guarantee was provided to TSMC North America, a wholly-owned subsidiary of TSMC.
** The guarantee was provided to TSMC Global, a wholly-owned subsidiary of TSMC.
*** The guarantee was provided to TSMC Arizona, a wholly-owned subsidiary of TSMC.
4. Financial derivative transactions (in NT$ thousands)
(1)
Derivatives not applying hedge accounting.
‧TSMC
Forward
Margin Payment
-
Premium Income (Expense)
-
Existing Contracts
Outstanding Notional Amount
192,798,341
Mark to Market of Outstanding Contracts
1,582,051
Cumulative Unrealized Profit/Loss
4,597,248
Expired Contracts
Cumulative Notional Amount
1,251,988,723
Cumulative Realized Profit/Loss
(7,563,234)
Equity price linked product (Y/N)
N
‧TSMC China
Forward
Margin Payment
-
Premium Income (Expense)
-
Existing Contracts
Outstanding Notional Amount
893,620
Mark to Market of Outstanding Contracts
5
Cumulative Unrealized Profit/Loss
(16,567)
Expired Contracts
Cumulative Notional Amount
10,874,743
Cumulative Realized Profit/Loss
33,478
Equity price linked product (Y/N)
N
‧TSMC Nanjing
Forward
Margin Payment
-
Premium Income (Expense)
-
Existing Contracts
Outstanding Notional Amount
2,265,965
Mark to Market of Outstanding Contracts
(26)
Cumulative Unrealized Profit/Loss
(23,851)
Expired Contracts
Cumulative Notional Amount
27,028,623
Cumulative Realized Profit/Loss
54,191
Equity price linked product (Y/N)
N
‧Japan Advanced Semiconductor Mfg., Inc.
Forward
Margin Payment
-
Premium Income (Expense)
-
Existing Contracts
Outstanding Notional Amount
-
Mark to Market of Outstanding Contracts
-
Cumulative Unrealized Profit/Loss
(4,241)
Expired Contracts
Cumulative Notional Amount
2,767,287
Cumulative Realized Profit/Loss
20,888
Equity price linked product (Y/N)
N
(2)
Derivatives applying hedge accounting.
‧TSMC Global
Future
Margin Payment
(16,201)
Premium Income (Expense)
-
Existing Contracts
Outstanding Notional Amount
253,144
Mark to Market of Outstanding Contracts
1,467
Cumulative Unrealized Profit/Loss
2,347
Expired Contracts
Cumulative Notional Amount
9,818,823
Cumulative Realized Profit/Loss
22,175
Equity price linked product (Y/N)
N

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