🇺🇸 SECNOVARTIS AGCodex · 实盘不做把握 7/10不做原因:已被定价
北京时间·🕒 发布 18:05:04·⟳ 抓取 18:05:32 +28s·⚡ 决策 09-08 19:45:37 +1h40m·49.2 天前
诺华 DM1 三期 HARBOR 失利,但管线与指引未被推翻
这是明确的临床失利,但消息已由公司官网和 Reuters 广泛扩散,瑞士主市场已先行大幅下跌;同时 Novartis 维持销售 CAGR 指引、次要终点仍有活性,事件对当前收入的直接冲击有限,不构成新的高期望值交易。
📄 原文NOVARTIS AG↗ 原文
----- f6k_090826.htm ----- 6-K 1 f6k_090826.htm FORM 6-K UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D…
不做 Novartis AG(NVS.US)
负面临床读出真实存在,但消息已广泛扩散且欧洲市场已大幅重定价;对 Novartis 现有收入冲击有限,指引未改,缺少新的可执行边际。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
事实是 HARBOR 主要终点失败,方向上偏空;但 del-desiran 仍属未商业化管线,Novartis 又维持中期销售指引并强调其他 AOC 项目推进,说明这更像长期管线估值重估而非近期盈利坍塌。消息已被官方和主流媒体迅速扩散,且欧洲盘已大幅重定价,因此此刻对 NVS.US 追空/抄底都缺少新的边际优势。
消息传播链
- 公司一手披露 HARBOR 未达主要终点,同时给出次要终点活性与后续开发评估。市场反应:消息在美股开盘前即已公开,欧洲盘前/盘中开始重定价。
- Reuters 确认该读出为晚期试验失利,并强调公司维持 2030 指引。市场反应:扩散后进一步强化负面定价。
- Reuters 报道 Novartis 在瑞士盘中一度/约跌 10.2%,显示欧洲市场已完成强重定价。市场反应:NOVN 约 -10.2%
关键理由
- del-desiran 作为 acquired pipeline lead asset 失利,压低了 Novartis 的后 2030 增长选项价值。
- 公司仍维持 5-6% 销售 CAGR 指引,说明这不是即时业绩下修型冲击。
- 同日已发生同公司其他管线负面读出,说明市场在做组合式重估而非单点定价。
主要风险
- 若市场进一步把 Avidity 相关交易价值和后续 AOC 资产一起下调,NVS 仍可能继续承压。
- 次要终点与管理层下一步路径若被解读为可逆转,当前负面反应可能被部分收回。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-09-08 · 影响 weakens
公司维持 2025-2030 销售 CAGR 指引,且次要终点/探索性分析仍见活性。
检索:Novartis del-desiran maintained 5-6% sales CAGR guidance secondary endpoints clinical activity 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例把结论从“可做空”压回到“负面但已 price-in,暂不新开仓”。
方向:先例显示该类消息方向偏空,但对大药企更常体现为阶段性重估而非持续单边下杀。
涨幅量级:高相似样本主要只说明单日消息会有明显波动,不能直接外推成可追的持续下跌;幅度更依赖是否已经被前一轮试验失败吸收。
形态:同公司连续 trial setback 容易放大跌幅,但这也意味着边际交易价值会迅速被消耗,追空胜率下降。
历史先例(按相似度)
- 相似度 9/10 NVS.US 2026-09-04 Novartis 9/4 公布 pelacarsen 三期未达主要终点,盘后约跌 4.4%。 原文 ↗
NVS.US 在 2026-09-04 后的盘后/次日反应
⚠非首发(转载/聚合)·来源层级不符(声明wire/实为aggregator) — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同一公司、同一周、同为晚期临床读出失利且公司仍维持中期指引,属于最贴近的对齐样本。
经验:同公司连续试验失利会放大情绪冲击,但如果市场已先行重定价,后续再追空的边际会快速变差。 - 相似度 6/10 AZN.US 2025-07-16 AstraZeneca 一项晚期罕见病疗法主终点失败,股价仅小幅下挫。 原文 ↗
AZN.US 当日及次日反应
⚠非首发(转载/聚合)·来源层级不符(声明wire/实为aggregator) — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同属大药企 late-stage 试验失利,但资产更偏单项目,能对照大市值药企对单项管线失败的反应幅度。
经验:大市值药企的单个 late-stage 失败未必形成持续做空机会,市场更看重是否伤及整体增长叙事。
工具执行结果 · 成功 7 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
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原文全文
展开原文 · 11,133 字
----- f6k_090826.htm -----
6-K
1
f6k_090826.htm
FORM 6-K
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 6-K
REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER
PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 or 15d-16 OF
THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
Report on Form 6-K dated September 8, 2026
(Commission File No. 1-15024)
____________________
Novartis AG
(Name of Registrant)
Lichtstrasse 35
4056 Basel
Switzerland
(Address of Principal Executive Offices)
____________________
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under
cover of Form 20-F or Form 40-F:
Form 20-F: ☒
Form 40-F: ☐
Novartis
International AG
CH-4002
Basel
Switzerland
www.novartis.com
x.com/novartisnews
PRESS RELEASE
Novartis provides update on delpacibart etedesiran (del-desiran) Phase III HARBOR study for the treatment of myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1)
Ad hoc announcement pursuant to Art. 53 LR
·
HARBOR did not meet its primary endpoint of vHOT in DM1, a progressive neuromuscular disease with high unmet need and no approved
treatment options
·
Del-desiran showed evidence of clinical activity in secondary endpoints and exploratory
analyses; full HARBOR dataset to be analyzed and appropriate development path to be determined
·
AOC pipeline continues to advance with FDA priority review granted for delpacibart zotadirsen in DMD44 and planned FDA meeting
for delpacibart braxlosiran in FSHD, based on positive Phase I/II biomarker data
·
Novartis maintains its 5-6% five-year sales CAGR guidance for 2025-2030
Basel, September 8, 2026
– Novartis today announced that the global Phase III HARBOR
study evaluating del-desiran in people living with myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) did not demonstrate statistically significant
improvement versus placebo on the primary endpoint of video hand opening time (vHOT), a novel measure of hand myotonia.
1,2
Evidence of clinical activity in secondary endpoints and exploratory analyses were observed. Safety findings from HARBOR were generally
consistent with previously reported data. Novartis is evaluating the full HARBOR dataset and will engage with health authorities to determine
the most appropriate development path for del-desiran.
“Despite decades of research, there are still no approved treatment options for DM1, and
patients and caregivers continue to face a significant daily burden,” said Shreeram Aradhye, President, Development and Chief Medical
Officer, Novartis. “Developing therapies for a complex disease like DM1 remains challenging, and setbacks are part of scientific
progress. As we continue to evaluate the full HARBOR dataset, we remain committed to identifying the most appropriate development path
for the del-desiran program and advancing innovative approaches for people living with DM1 and other serious neuromuscular diseases.”
Del-desiran is one of three antibody oligonucleotide conjugate (AOC) therapies
added to the Novartis neuromuscular pipeline through the acquisition
of Avidity Biosciences. Novartis
is advancing delpacibart zotadirsen (del-zota) in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy with mutations amenable to exon 44 skipping
(DMD44). The company filed del-zota for accelerated approval and was granted priority review designation by US Food and Drug Administration
(FDA). Novartis is planning to meet with the FDA on next steps for delpacibart braxlosiran (del-brax) in facioscapulohumeral muscular
dystrophy (FSHD) based on recent
positive Phase I/II biomarker data
.
About DM1
Myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) is a progressive, multisystem, heterogeneous neuromuscular
disease caused by an expansion of CTG repeats in the DM1 protein kinase (
DMPK
) gene.
3,4,5
People living with
DM1 may experience a range of internal and systemic symptoms, including myotonia, muscle weakness and impaired hand function,
which can affect everyday activities, independence, and quality of life.
3
About Del-desiran
Del-desiran is an investigational antibody oligonucleotide conjugate (AOC) designed to
target the underlying cause of DM1. The therapy consists of a muscle-targeting monoclonal antibody that binds to the transferrin receptor
1 (TfR1) and is conjugated to a small interfering RNA (siRNA) designed to induce degradation of disease-causing
toxic DMPK messenger RNA (mRNA).
6
Del-desiran received Orphan Drug, Fast Track and Breakthrough Therapy Designations
from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and Orphan Medicinal Product Designation in the European Union (EU).
About the HARBOR study
HARBOR (NCT06411288) is a global Phase III, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study evaluating
the efficacy and safety of del-desiran over 54 weeks in approximately 150 people living with DM1. Participants
were randomized to receive del-desiran or placebo every eight weeks. The study assesses the impact of del-desiran across
multiple functional aspects of DM1. The primary endpoint is vHOT and key secondary endpoints include muscle
strength as measured by hand grip strength and quantitative muscle testing (QMT) total score, activities of daily living as measured by
DM1-Activ, and mobility and physical function as measured by the 10-meter walk/run test (10mWRT).
1
Novartis in Neuroscience
Neurological diseases are deeply personal, affecting people of any age, from newborns to seniors,
often striking in the prime of life. At Novartis, we are doubling down on our commitment to neurology, expanding our legacy of innovation
in spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and multiple sclerosis (MS) to work in neuroimmunology, neurodegeneration, and neuromuscular diseases.
Our goal is to protect people’s health across their lifespan, developing more treatment options that lead to better outcomes.
Disclaimer
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the
meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified
by words such as “potential,” “can,” “will,” “plan,” “may,” “could,”
“would,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “progressive,” “continues,” or similar
expressions, or by express or implied discussions regarding: potential new products including del-desiran, del-zota or del-brax; potential
new indications for existing products; potential product launches or potential future revenues from del-desiran, del-zota or del-brax;
results of ongoing clinical trials; or potential future, pending or announced transactions; or potential future sales or earnings from
del-desiran, del-zota or del-brax. You should not place undue reliance on these statements. Such forward-looking statements are based
on the current beliefs and expectations of management regarding future events, and are subject to significant known
and unknown risks and uncertainties. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions
prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. There can be no
guarantee that del-desiran, del-zota or del-brax will be submitted or approved for sale or for any additional indications
or labeling in any market, or at any particular time. Nor can there be any guarantee that del-desiran, del-zota or del-brax will
be commercially successful in the future. In particular, our expectations could be affected by, among other things, uncertainties
concerning: global healthcare cost containment, including ongoing government, payer and general public pricing and reimbursement pressures
and requirements for increased pricing transparency; the success of our key products, commercial priorities and strategy; research
and development of new products, including clinical trial results and additional analysis of existing clinical data; our ability to obtain
or maintain proprietary intellectual property protection, including the ultimate extent of the impact on Novartis of the loss of patent
protection and exclusivity on key products; our ability to realize the strategic benefits, operational efficiencies or opportunities expected
from our external business opportunities; the development or adoption of new technologies, including artificial intelligence, and new
business models; potential significant breaches of information security or disruptions of our information technology systems; actual or
potential legal proceedings, including regulatory actions or delays or government regulation related to the products and pipeline products
described in this press release; safety, quality, data integrity, or manufacturing issues; major macroeconomic and geo- and socio-political
developments, including the impact of any potential tariffs on our products or the impact of war in certain parts of the world; future
global exchange rates; future demand for our products; and other risks and factors referred to in Novartis AG’s most recently filed
Form 20-F and in subsequent reports filed with, or furnished to, the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Novartis is providing the
information in this press release as of this date and does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as
a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
About Novartis
Novartis is an innovative medicines company. Every day, we work to reimagine medicine
to improve and extend people’s lives so that patients, healthcare professionals and societies are empowered in the face
of serious disease. Our medicines reach more than
300
million people worldwide.
Reimagine medicine with us: Visit us at
www.novartis.com
and
connect with us on
LinkedIn
,
Facebook
,
X/Twitter
and
Instagram
.
References
1.
ClinicalTrials.gov. Available at: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06411288. Accessed August 2026.
2.
Duong T, de Monts C, McIntyre M, et al. 444P Exploring hand myotonia: assessing hand opening and individual finger movements through
machine learning. Neuromuscular Disorders. 2024;43(Suppl 1):104441.
3.
Muscular Dystrophy Association. Myotonic Dystrophy (DM). Available at: https://www.mda.org/disease/myotonic-dystrophy. Accessed August 2026.
4.
Kwan TT, Meng Q, Delos Santos N, et al. Delpacibart etedesiran improves the molecular pathology of myotonic dystrophy type 1
in the phase 1/2 MARINA study. Molecular Therapy. 2026;34(5). doi:10.1016/j.ymthe.2026.03.013.
5.
National Human Genome Research Institute. About Myotonic Dystrophy. Available at: https://www.genome.gov/Genetic-Disorders/Myotonic-Dystrophy.
Accessed August 2026.
6.
Johnson NE, Tai LJ, Hamel JI, et al. An antibody-oligonucleotide conjugate for myotonic dystrophy type 1. N Engl J
Med. 2026;394:717-730. PMID: 41707138.
# # #
Novartis Media Relations
E-mail: media.relations@novartis.com
Novartis Investor Relations
Central investor relations line:
+41
61 324 7944
E-mail: investor.relations@novartis.com
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to
the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf
by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.
Novartis AG
Date: September 8, 2026
By:
/s/ PAUL
PENEPENT
Name:
Paul Penepent
Title:
Head of Financial Reporting and Accounting
6-K
1
f6k_090826.htm
FORM 6-K
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 6-K
REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER
PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 or 15d-16 OF
THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
Report on Form 6-K dated September 8, 2026
(Commission File No. 1-15024)
____________________
Novartis AG
(Name of Registrant)
Lichtstrasse 35
4056 Basel
Switzerland
(Address of Principal Executive Offices)
____________________
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under
cover of Form 20-F or Form 40-F:
Form 20-F: ☒
Form 40-F: ☐
Novartis
International AG
CH-4002
Basel
Switzerland
www.novartis.com
x.com/novartisnews
PRESS RELEASE
Novartis provides update on delpacibart etedesiran (del-desiran) Phase III HARBOR study for the treatment of myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1)
Ad hoc announcement pursuant to Art. 53 LR
·
HARBOR did not meet its primary endpoint of vHOT in DM1, a progressive neuromuscular disease with high unmet need and no approved
treatment options
·
Del-desiran showed evidence of clinical activity in secondary endpoints and exploratory
analyses; full HARBOR dataset to be analyzed and appropriate development path to be determined
·
AOC pipeline continues to advance with FDA priority review granted for delpacibart zotadirsen in DMD44 and planned FDA meeting
for delpacibart braxlosiran in FSHD, based on positive Phase I/II biomarker data
·
Novartis maintains its 5-6% five-year sales CAGR guidance for 2025-2030
Basel, September 8, 2026
– Novartis today announced that the global Phase III HARBOR
study evaluating del-desiran in people living with myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) did not demonstrate statistically significant
improvement versus placebo on the primary endpoint of video hand opening time (vHOT), a novel measure of hand myotonia.
1,2
Evidence of clinical activity in secondary endpoints and exploratory analyses were observed. Safety findings from HARBOR were generally
consistent with previously reported data. Novartis is evaluating the full HARBOR dataset and will engage with health authorities to determine
the most appropriate development path for del-desiran.
“Despite decades of research, there are still no approved treatment options for DM1, and
patients and caregivers continue to face a significant daily burden,” said Shreeram Aradhye, President, Development and Chief Medical
Officer, Novartis. “Developing therapies for a complex disease like DM1 remains challenging, and setbacks are part of scientific
progress. As we continue to evaluate the full HARBOR dataset, we remain committed to identifying the most appropriate development path
for the del-desiran program and advancing innovative approaches for people living with DM1 and other serious neuromuscular diseases.”
Del-desiran is one of three antibody oligonucleotide conjugate (AOC) therapies
added to the Novartis neuromuscular pipeline through the acquisition
of Avidity Biosciences. Novartis
is advancing delpacibart zotadirsen (del-zota) in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy with mutations amenable to exon 44 skipping
(DMD44). The company filed del-zota for accelerated approval and was granted priority review designation by US Food and Drug Administration
(FDA). Novartis is planning to meet with the FDA on next steps for delpacibart braxlosiran (del-brax) in facioscapulohumeral muscular
dystrophy (FSHD) based on recent
positive Phase I/II biomarker data
.
About DM1
Myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) is a progressive, multisystem, heterogeneous neuromuscular
disease caused by an expansion of CTG repeats in the DM1 protein kinase (
DMPK
) gene.
3,4,5
People living with
DM1 may experience a range of internal and systemic symptoms, including myotonia, muscle weakness and impaired hand function,
which can affect everyday activities, independence, and quality of life.
3
About Del-desiran
Del-desiran is an investigational antibody oligonucleotide conjugate (AOC) designed to
target the underlying cause of DM1. The therapy consists of a muscle-targeting monoclonal antibody that binds to the transferrin receptor
1 (TfR1) and is conjugated to a small interfering RNA (siRNA) designed to induce degradation of disease-causing
toxic DMPK messenger RNA (mRNA).
6
Del-desiran received Orphan Drug, Fast Track and Breakthrough Therapy Designations
from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and Orphan Medicinal Product Designation in the European Union (EU).
About the HARBOR study
HARBOR (NCT06411288) is a global Phase III, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study evaluating
the efficacy and safety of del-desiran over 54 weeks in approximately 150 people living with DM1. Participants
were randomized to receive del-desiran or placebo every eight weeks. The study assesses the impact of del-desiran across
multiple functional aspects of DM1. The primary endpoint is vHOT and key secondary endpoints include muscle
strength as measured by hand grip strength and quantitative muscle testing (QMT) total score, activities of daily living as measured by
DM1-Activ, and mobility and physical function as measured by the 10-meter walk/run test (10mWRT).
1
Novartis in Neuroscience
Neurological diseases are deeply personal, affecting people of any age, from newborns to seniors,
often striking in the prime of life. At Novartis, we are doubling down on our commitment to neurology, expanding our legacy of innovation
in spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and multiple sclerosis (MS) to work in neuroimmunology, neurodegeneration, and neuromuscular diseases.
Our goal is to protect people’s health across their lifespan, developing more treatment options that lead to better outcomes.
Disclaimer
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the
meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified
by words such as “potential,” “can,” “will,” “plan,” “may,” “could,”
“would,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “progressive,” “continues,” or similar
expressions, or by express or implied discussions regarding: potential new products including del-desiran, del-zota or del-brax; potential
new indications for existing products; potential product launches or potential future revenues from del-desiran, del-zota or del-brax;
results of ongoing clinical trials; or potential future, pending or announced transactions; or potential future sales or earnings from
del-desiran, del-zota or del-brax. You should not place undue reliance on these statements. Such forward-looking statements are based
on the current beliefs and expectations of management regarding future events, and are subject to significant known
and unknown risks and uncertainties. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions
prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. There can be no
guarantee that del-desiran, del-zota or del-brax will be submitted or approved for sale or for any additional indications
or labeling in any market, or at any particular time. Nor can there be any guarantee that del-desiran, del-zota or del-brax will
be commercially successful in the future. In particular, our expectations could be affected by, among other things, uncertainties
concerning: global healthcare cost containment, including ongoing government, payer and general public pricing and reimbursement pressures
and requirements for increased pricing transparency; the success of our key products, commercial priorities and strategy; research
and development of new products, including clinical trial results and additional analysis of existing clinical data; our ability to obtain
or maintain proprietary intellectual property protection, including the ultimate extent of the impact on Novartis of the loss of patent
protection and exclusivity on key products; our ability to realize the strategic benefits, operational efficiencies or opportunities expected
from our external business opportunities; the development or adoption of new technologies, including artificial intelligence, and new
business models; potential significant breaches of information security or disruptions of our information technology systems; actual or
potential legal proceedings, including regulatory actions or delays or government regulation related to the products and pipeline products
described in this press release; safety, quality, data integrity, or manufacturing issues; major macroeconomic and geo- and socio-political
developments, including the impact of any potential tariffs on our products or the impact of war in certain parts of the world; future
global exchange rates; future demand for our products; and other risks and factors referred to in Novartis AG’s most recently filed
Form 20-F and in subsequent reports filed with, or furnished to, the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Novartis is providing the
information in this press release as of this date and does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements as
a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
About Novartis
Novartis is an innovative medicines company. Every day, we work to reimagine medicine
to improve and extend people’s lives so that patients, healthcare professionals and societies are empowered in the face
of serious disease. Our medicines reach more than
300
million people worldwide.
Reimagine medicine with us: Visit us at
www.novartis.com
and
connect with us on
,
,
X/Twitter
and
.
References
1.
ClinicalTrials.gov. Available at: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06411288. Accessed August 2026.
2.
Duong T, de Monts C, McIntyre M, et al. 444P Exploring hand myotonia: assessing hand opening and individual finger movements through
machine learning. Neuromuscular Disorders. 2024;43(Suppl 1):104441.
3.
Muscular Dystrophy Association. Myotonic Dystrophy (DM). Available at: https://www.mda.org/disease/myotonic-dystrophy. Accessed August 2026.
4.
Kwan TT, Meng Q, Delos Santos N, et al. Delpacibart etedesiran improves the molecular pathology of myotonic dystrophy type 1
in the phase 1/2 MARINA study. Molecular Therapy. 2026;34(5). doi:10.1016/j.ymthe.2026.03.013.
5.
National Human Genome Research Institute. About Myotonic Dystrophy. Available at: https://www.genome.gov/Genetic-Disorders/Myotonic-Dystrophy.
Accessed August 2026.
6.
Johnson NE, Tai LJ, Hamel JI, et al. An antibody-oligonucleotide conjugate for myotonic dystrophy type 1. N Engl J
Med. 2026;394:717-730. PMID: 41707138.
# # #
Novartis Media Relations
E-mail: media.relations@novartis.com
Novartis Investor Relations
Central investor relations line:
+41
61 324 7944
E-mail: investor.relations@novartis.com
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to
the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf
by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.
Novartis AG
Date: September 8, 2026
By:
/s/ PAUL
PENEPENT
Name:
Paul Penepent
Title:
Head of Financial Reporting and Accounting
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。