🇺🇸 SECKeyCorpDoubao · 实盘不做把握 7/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 19:56:54·⟳ 抓取 20:27:43 +30m49s·⚡ 决策 09-14 21:25:18 +57m35s·43.2 天前
KeyCorp在巴克莱金融会议披露2026全年展望:收入/非息收入指引小幅上调,但费用指引同步上修,净惊喜有限
正面但属软催化:会议演示稿对FY2026收入/非息收入指引仅边际上修约1个百分点(约$75M收入量级),同时调整后费用指引由3–4%上调至~4%抵消部分利好,未给出EPS或资本回报新惊喜;$233亿市值大盘银行对此量级调整弹性低,盘前仅+0.27%(成交2,110股)且夜盘冲高+1%回落,叠加2天后FOMC利率决议与点阵图的宏观不确定性,风险回报不足。
📄 原文KeyCorp↗ 原文
----- key-20260914.htm ----- UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 8-K CURRENT R…
不做 KeyCorp(KEY.US)
例行巴克莱会议Reg FD演示稿,FY2026收入/非息收入指引仅上修约1个百分点而费用指引同步上调,净盈利惊喜小;$233亿市值大盘银行弹性低,盘前+0.27%无量、夜盘冲高回落,且2天后FOMC利率决议压制风险回报,无交易edge
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
KeyCorp巴克莱会议材料把FY2026收入增速从7–8%抬到~8%、非息收入上修约1pt,但费用指引同步上修,净惊喜有限;大盘银行+例行会议+盘前几乎无反应+FOMC临近,不构成可交易机会,回避。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-09-14 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 收入与非息收入指引各上修约1个百分点,方向正面,印证NII增长9–11%与商业贷款8–10%的基本面韧性
- 但调整后费用指引同步由3–4%上调至~4%,且NIM/ROTCE/信贷成本等核心指标未变,幻灯片未量化EPS增量,属边际而非实质性beat
主要风险
- 2天后FOMC利率决议与点阵图主导银行股净息差预期,个股软指引易被宏观波动淹没
- 会议口头Q&A可能出现幻灯片之外的表述,若盘前/盘中无放量确认则本次上修大概率被视为符合预期
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-09-14 · 影响 weakens
同一份Exhibit 99.1显示调整后非息费用指引由up 3–4%上调为up ~4%,NIM 4Q退出3.00–3.05%、NCO 40–45bps、ROTCE 9.5–10%均未上修,收入抬升部分被成本抵消,无EPS/资本回报增量
检索:KeyCorp 2026 outlook expense guidance raise net interest margin credit quality concerns 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:支持回避:不据此设定tp/sl,也不开仓;若后续口头交流或FOMC带来实质超预期再另行评估
方向:无可引用的对齐先例;大盘银行例行行业会议边际指引微调在经验上通常带来低个位数日内反应且高度依赖利率环境
涨幅量级:未做事件研究量化;仅凭约1个百分点的收入/非息收入指引上修对$23B市值的盈利弹性,不足以支撑正期望幅度
形态:盘前+0.27%、夜盘冲高回落本身已指示软催化、缺乏追价动能
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原文全文
展开原文 · 11,263 字
----- key-20260914.htm -----
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM
8-K
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d)
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported):
September 14, 2026
KeyCorp
(Exact name of registrant as specified in charter)
Ohio
001-11302
34-6542451
State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization:
Commission File Number
I.R.S. Employer Identification Number:
127 Public Square,
Cleveland,
Ohio
44114-1306
Address of principal executive offices:
Zip Code:
(
216
)
689-3000
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code:
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):
☐
Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
☐
Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
☐
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
☐
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))
Securities Registered Pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
Title of each class
Trading Symbol(s)
Name of each exchange on which registered
Common Shares, $1 par value
KEY
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series E)
KEY PrI
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of Fixed Rate Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series F)
KEY PrJ
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of Fixed Rate Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series G)
KEY PrK
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of Fixed Rate Reset Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series H)
KEY PrL
New York Stock Exchange
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).
Emerging growth company
☐
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.
☐
Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure.
KeyCorp will review its performance, strategy, and outlook at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on Monday, September 14, 2026. A copy of the slides forming the basis of the presentation is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and has been posted on KeyCorp’s website (www.key.com/ir) in connection with the conference. A live audio webcast will also be available on the day of the conference at www.key.com/ir. A recording will also be available at www.key.com/ir after the event.
The information in this Item 7.01 and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into the filings of KeyCorp under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The content of the KeyCorp website referenced herein and in the exhibit are not incorporated into this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(d) Exhibits.
Exhibit No.
Description of Exhibit
99.1
KeyCorp Presentation Slides, Barclays Global Financial Services Conference.
104
Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within Inline XBRL document
SIGNATURE
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
KEYCORP
Date: September 14, 2026
/s/ Andrea R. McCarthy
By: Andrea R. McCarthy
Title: Assistant Secretary
----- barclaysconferencepresen.htm -----
EX-99.1
2
barclaysconferencepresen.htm
EX-99.1
barclaysconferencepresen
KeyCorp Barclays Global Financial Services Conference September 14, 2026 Clark Khayat Chief Financial Officer
$ in millions, unless otherwise stated FY2026 (vs. FY2025) On an operating basis Revenue(1),(2) (FY25 baseline: $7,513) up ~8% (previously up 7 – 8%) Net interest income(1),(2) (FY25 baseline: $4,671) up 9 – 11% Net interest margin(2) 4Q exit rate: 3.00 – 3.05% Average earning assets growing $1Bn – $2Bn from 2Q26 Noninterest income (FY25 baseline: $2,842) up 4 – 5% (previously up 3 – 4%) Noninterest income on an adjusted basis(1) (FY25 baseline: $2,495)(3) up 6 – 7%(3) (previously up 5 – 6%) Adjusted noninterest expense(1) (FY25 baseline: $4,729)(4) up ~4% (previously up 3 – 4%) Average loans (FY25 baseline: $105.7Bn) up 4 – 5% Average commercial loans (FY25 baseline: $74.5Bn) up 8 – 10% NCOs to average loans 40 – 45 bps Tax rate GAAP tax rate: ~22% Tax-equivalent effective rate(5): ~23% 16 – 19% ROTCE 9.5 – 10% Marked CET1 3.25%+ / 15%+ NIM and ROTCE (1) Represents a forward-looking non-GAAP measure: refer to slide 4, "Forward-Looking Statements and Additional Information", for more information; (2) Taxable equivalent basis; (3) Excluding Commercial mortgage servicing fees, Operating lease income, Other leasing gains, Other income and net securities gains (losses); (4) Non-GAAP measure: adjusted noninterest expense for 2025 excludes a $26MM benefit from the FDIC special assessment. See slide 3 for breakout of "Selected Items Impact on Earnings"; (5) Reflects the estimated full year taxable-equivalent adjustment 2026 Outlook Long-Term Targets(1) 4Q27 Targets(1) 2
(1) Favorable (unfavorable) impact; (2) Impact to EPS reflected on a fully diluted basis; (3) In November 2023, the FDIC issued a final rule implementing a special assessment on insured depository institutions to recover the loss to the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund (DIF) associated with protecting uninsured depositors following the 2023 closures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. KeyCorp recorded the initial loss estimate related to the special assessment during the fourth quarter of 2023. Amounts reflected in this table represent adjustments from initial estimates based on quarterly invoices received from the FDIC; (4) Earnings per share may not foot due to rounding Selected Items Impact on Earnings $ in millions, except per share amounts After-tax at marginal rate(1) Quarter-to-date results Pretax(1) Amount Net Income EPS(2)(4) Three months ended June 30, 2026 No items $ — $ — $ — Three months ended March 31, 2026 No items — — — Three months ended December 31, 2025 FDIC special assessment (other expense)(3) 21 16 0.01 Three months ended September 30, 2025 FDIC special assessment (other expense)(3) 5 4 — Three months ended June 30, 2025 No items — — — Year-to-date results Six months ended June 30, 2026 No items $ — $ — $ — Six months ended June 30, 2025 No items — — — Selected Items Impact on Earnings 3
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 including, but not limited to, KeyCorp’s expectations or predictions of future financial or business performance or conditions. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as “believe,” “seek,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “target,” “estimate,” “continue,” “positions,” “plan,” “predict,” “project,” “forecast,” “guidance,” “goal,” “objective,” “prospects,” “possible,” “potential,” “strategy,” “opportunities,” or “trends,” by future conditional verbs such as “assume,” “will,” “would,” “should,” “could” or “may”, or by variations of such words or by similar expressions. These forward-looking statements are based on assumptions that involve risks and uncertainties, which are subject to change based on various important factors (some of which are beyond KeyCorp’s control). Actual results may differ materially from current projections. Actual outcomes may differ materially from those expressed or implied as a result of the factors described under “Forward-looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” in KeyCorp’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, and in subsequent filings of KeyCorp with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). Such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after that date or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. For additional information regarding KeyCorp, please refer to our SEC filings available at www.key.com/ir. Non-GAAP Measures. This presentation contains GAAP financial measures and non-GAAP financial measures where management believes it to be helpful in understanding Key’s results of operations or financial position. Where non-GAAP financial measures are used, the comparable GAAP financial measure, as well as the reconciliation to the comparable GAAP financial measure, can be found in this presentation. Forward-Looking Non-GAAP Measures. From time to time we may discuss forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures. We are unable to provide a reconciliation of forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures because we are unable to provide, without unreasonable effort, a meaningful or accurate calculation or estimation of amounts that would be necessary for the reconciliation due to the complexity and inherent difficulty in forecasting and quantifying future amounts or when they may occur. Such unavailable information could be significant for future results. Annualized Data. Certain returns, yields, performance ratios, or quarterly growth rates are presented on an “annualized” basis. This is done for analytical and decision-making purposes to better discern underlying performance trends when compared to full-year or year-over-year amounts. Taxable Equivalent. Income from tax-exempt earning assets is increased by an amount equivalent to the taxes that would have been paid if this income had been taxable at the federal statutory rate. This adjustment puts all earning assets, most notably tax-exempt municipal securities, and certain lease assets, on a common basis that facilitates comparison of results to results of peers. Earnings Per Share Equivalent. Certain income or expense items may be expressed on a per common share basis. This is done for analytical and decision-making purposes to better discern underlying trends in total consolidated earnings per share performance excluding the impact of such items. When the impact of certain income or expense items is disclosed separately, the after-tax amount is computed using the marginal tax rate, unless otherwise specified, with this then being the amount used to calculate the earnings per share equivalent. GAAP: Generally Accepted Accounting Principles Forward-looking Statements and Additional Information 4
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM
8-K
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d)
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported):
September 14, 2026
KeyCorp
(Exact name of registrant as specified in charter)
Ohio
001-11302
34-6542451
State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization:
Commission File Number
I.R.S. Employer Identification Number:
127 Public Square,
Cleveland,
Ohio
44114-1306
Address of principal executive offices:
Zip Code:
(
216
)
689-3000
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code:
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):
☐
Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
☐
Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
☐
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
☐
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))
Securities Registered Pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
Title of each class
Trading Symbol(s)
Name of each exchange on which registered
Common Shares, $1 par value
KEY
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series E)
KEY PrI
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of Fixed Rate Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series F)
KEY PrJ
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of Fixed Rate Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series G)
KEY PrK
New York Stock Exchange
Depositary Shares (each representing a 1/40th interest in a share of Fixed Rate Reset Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series H)
KEY PrL
New York Stock Exchange
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).
Emerging growth company
☐
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.
☐
Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure.
KeyCorp will review its performance, strategy, and outlook at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on Monday, September 14, 2026. A copy of the slides forming the basis of the presentation is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and has been posted on KeyCorp’s website (www.key.com/ir) in connection with the conference. A live audio webcast will also be available on the day of the conference at www.key.com/ir. A recording will also be available at www.key.com/ir after the event.
The information in this Item 7.01 and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities under that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into the filings of KeyCorp under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The content of the KeyCorp website referenced herein and in the exhibit are not incorporated into this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(d) Exhibits.
Exhibit No.
Description of Exhibit
99.1
KeyCorp Presentation Slides, Barclays Global Financial Services Conference.
104
Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within Inline XBRL document
SIGNATURE
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
KEYCORP
Date: September 14, 2026
/s/ Andrea R. McCarthy
By: Andrea R. McCarthy
Title: Assistant Secretary
----- barclaysconferencepresen.htm -----
EX-99.1
2
barclaysconferencepresen.htm
EX-99.1
barclaysconferencepresen
KeyCorp Barclays Global Financial Services Conference September 14, 2026 Clark Khayat Chief Financial Officer
$ in millions, unless otherwise stated FY2026 (vs. FY2025) On an operating basis Revenue(1),(2) (FY25 baseline: $7,513) up ~8% (previously up 7 – 8%) Net interest income(1),(2) (FY25 baseline: $4,671) up 9 – 11% Net interest margin(2) 4Q exit rate: 3.00 – 3.05% Average earning assets growing $1Bn – $2Bn from 2Q26 Noninterest income (FY25 baseline: $2,842) up 4 – 5% (previously up 3 – 4%) Noninterest income on an adjusted basis(1) (FY25 baseline: $2,495)(3) up 6 – 7%(3) (previously up 5 – 6%) Adjusted noninterest expense(1) (FY25 baseline: $4,729)(4) up ~4% (previously up 3 – 4%) Average loans (FY25 baseline: $105.7Bn) up 4 – 5% Average commercial loans (FY25 baseline: $74.5Bn) up 8 – 10% NCOs to average loans 40 – 45 bps Tax rate GAAP tax rate: ~22% Tax-equivalent effective rate(5): ~23% 16 – 19% ROTCE 9.5 – 10% Marked CET1 3.25%+ / 15%+ NIM and ROTCE (1) Represents a forward-looking non-GAAP measure: refer to slide 4, "Forward-Looking Statements and Additional Information", for more information; (2) Taxable equivalent basis; (3) Excluding Commercial mortgage servicing fees, Operating lease income, Other leasing gains, Other income and net securities gains (losses); (4) Non-GAAP measure: adjusted noninterest expense for 2025 excludes a $26MM benefit from the FDIC special assessment. See slide 3 for breakout of "Selected Items Impact on Earnings"; (5) Reflects the estimated full year taxable-equivalent adjustment 2026 Outlook Long-Term Targets(1) 4Q27 Targets(1) 2
(1) Favorable (unfavorable) impact; (2) Impact to EPS reflected on a fully diluted basis; (3) In November 2023, the FDIC issued a final rule implementing a special assessment on insured depository institutions to recover the loss to the FDIC’s deposit insurance fund (DIF) associated with protecting uninsured depositors following the 2023 closures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. KeyCorp recorded the initial loss estimate related to the special assessment during the fourth quarter of 2023. Amounts reflected in this table represent adjustments from initial estimates based on quarterly invoices received from the FDIC; (4) Earnings per share may not foot due to rounding Selected Items Impact on Earnings $ in millions, except per share amounts After-tax at marginal rate(1) Quarter-to-date results Pretax(1) Amount Net Income EPS(2)(4) Three months ended June 30, 2026 No items $ — $ — $ — Three months ended March 31, 2026 No items — — — Three months ended December 31, 2025 FDIC special assessment (other expense)(3) 21 16 0.01 Three months ended September 30, 2025 FDIC special assessment (other expense)(3) 5 4 — Three months ended June 30, 2025 No items — — — Year-to-date results Six months ended June 30, 2026 No items $ — $ — $ — Six months ended June 30, 2025 No items — — — Selected Items Impact on Earnings 3
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 including, but not limited to, KeyCorp’s expectations or predictions of future financial or business performance or conditions. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as “believe,” “seek,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “target,” “estimate,” “continue,” “positions,” “plan,” “predict,” “project,” “forecast,” “guidance,” “goal,” “objective,” “prospects,” “possible,” “potential,” “strategy,” “opportunities,” or “trends,” by future conditional verbs such as “assume,” “will,” “would,” “should,” “could” or “may”, or by variations of such words or by similar expressions. These forward-looking statements are based on assumptions that involve risks and uncertainties, which are subject to change based on various important factors (some of which are beyond KeyCorp’s control). Actual results may differ materially from current projections. Actual outcomes may differ materially from those expressed or implied as a result of the factors described under “Forward-looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” in KeyCorp’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, and in subsequent filings of KeyCorp with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). Such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after that date or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. For additional information regarding KeyCorp, please refer to our SEC filings available at www.key.com/ir. Non-GAAP Measures. This presentation contains GAAP financial measures and non-GAAP financial measures where management believes it to be helpful in understanding Key’s results of operations or financial position. Where non-GAAP financial measures are used, the comparable GAAP financial measure, as well as the reconciliation to the comparable GAAP financial measure, can be found in this presentation. Forward-Looking Non-GAAP Measures. From time to time we may discuss forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures. We are unable to provide a reconciliation of forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures because we are unable to provide, without unreasonable effort, a meaningful or accurate calculation or estimation of amounts that would be necessary for the reconciliation due to the complexity and inherent difficulty in forecasting and quantifying future amounts or when they may occur. Such unavailable information could be significant for future results. Annualized Data. Certain returns, yields, performance ratios, or quarterly growth rates are presented on an “annualized” basis. This is done for analytical and decision-making purposes to better discern underlying performance trends when compared to full-year or year-over-year amounts. Taxable Equivalent. Income from tax-exempt earning assets is increased by an amount equivalent to the taxes that would have been paid if this income had been taxable at the federal statutory rate. This adjustment puts all earning assets, most notably tax-exempt municipal securities, and certain lease assets, on a common basis that facilitates comparison of results to results of peers. Earnings Per Share Equivalent. Certain income or expense items may be expressed on a per common share basis. This is done for analytical and decision-making purposes to better discern underlying trends in total consolidated earnings per share performance excluding the impact of such items. When the impact of certain income or expense items is disclosed separately, the after-tax amount is computed using the marginal tax rate, unless otherwise specified, with this then being the amount used to calculate the earnings per share equivalent. GAAP: Generally Accepted Accounting Principles Forward-looking Statements and Additional Information 4
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