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🇺🇸 SECStrive, Inc.Doubao · 实盘不做把握 5/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 19:59:25·⟳ 抓取 19:59:47 +22s·⚡ 决策 10-19 20:03:21 +3m34s·7.7 天前

Strive 8-K:再购1,223枚BTC(合计披露4,045枚),认股权证全部行权/到期清零,6.3亿美元SATS优先股10月20日结算

本8-K主要为例行持仓更新:4,045枚中2,822枚及3.69亿美元权证行权已于10/14公开,真正增量仅1,223枚(约1亿美元,占总持仓约3%)和权证清零确认;SATS优先股10/15已定价。正面(权证悬顶解除+6.3亿新资金即将到账)被15%高息优先股成本、约12.4%的已实现摊薄和股价持续下行(20日-20%、10/16 -6%)抵消,盘前仅+2.7%且无量,缺乏相对其高波动的清晰正edge。

📄 原文Strive, Inc.↗ 原文
----- asst-20261019.htm ----- UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 _________________…
不做 Strive, Inc.(ASST.US)
增量购币仅约1亿美元(占持仓约3%),主体购币与权证行权10/14已公开并被以摊薄抛售;权证清零和6.3亿新资金为温和利好,但被15%高息优先股、约12.4%摊薄和明确下行趋势抵消,盘前+2.7%无量、无足够预期差,风险回报不足,不追多亦无做空催化(属正面事件),故不做
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

Strive新增购币规模小且大部分为旧闻,权证清零与即将到账的6.3亿美元是温和利好,但高息优先股、已落地的股本摊薄与下行趋势压制风险回报;盘前小涨不构成可交易的预期差,故不做。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-19 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 节点

关键理由

  • 权证全部行权/到期消除约1,525万股潜在摊薄悬顶,3.692亿美元资金已转化为BTC,属结构性去悬顶利好
  • 6.3亿美元SATS优先股10/20结算提供新购币弹药,BTC现价约82,700美元贴近公司成本,国库策略延续

主要风险

  • 15%票息优先股资本成本高昂且A类股一周增加约12.4%,市场近期以摊薄逻辑抛售(10/14 -10.5%、10/16 -6.1%)
  • 股价处明确下行通道(20日-20%、距60日高约-25%),且与Semler合并存整合不确定性,反弹可能仅为弱势反抽

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-14 · 影响 weakens
    市场将权证行权/发股购币解读为摊薄(10/14报道股本增约9.4%),15%优先股资本成本高企,股价10/14 -10.55%、10/16 -6.08%、20日-20%
    检索:ASST Strive dilution preferred 15% downside analyst October 2026 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:缺乏支持短线追多的历史胜率证据,叠加下行趋势,直接支持AVOID而非小仓试探

方向:未构建可信同主体/同机制(比特币国库公司例行周度购币+权证清零)对齐先例面板

涨幅量级:无可用于校准幅度的高相似aligned先例,不以记忆设定止盈止损

形态:本票自身10/14同类购币公告后当日-10.55%,提示市场近期对摊薄式购币偏负面,但这是当前标的旧事件而非外部先例

工具执行结果 · 成功 4 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
  1. search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 13 ms
    {"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`asst warrant exercise 369 million bitcoin treasury | strive asst sats preferred stock offering $700 million | strive inc asst bitcoin purchase 4045 october 2026`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选,不能
  2. stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 1,697 ms
    {
  3. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,893 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Strive ASST bitcoin purchase announcement October 14 2026 warrants exercised;API SearchType:web)
  4. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,622 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:bitcoin price October 19 2026;API SearchType:web)

原文全文

展开原文 · 11,175 字
----- asst-20261019.htm -----
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549
_________________________________________________________
FORM
8-K
_________________________________________________________
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported):
October 19, 2026
_________________________________________________________
STRIVE, INC.
(Exact name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter)
_________________________________________________________
Nevada
001-41612
88-1293236
(State or Other Jurisdiction
of Incorporation)
(Commission File Number)
(IRS Employer
Identification No.)
200 Crescent Ct.
,
Suite 1400
,
Dallas
,
Texas
75201
(Address of principal executive offices and zip code)
Registrant’s Telephone Number, Including Area Code: (
855
)
427-7360
(Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)
_________________________________________________________
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:
☐
Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
☐
Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
☐
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
☐
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
Title of each class
Trading
Symbol(s)
Name of each exchange on which registered
Class A common stock, $0.001 par value per share
ASST
The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC
Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock, $0.001 par value per share
SATA
The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§ 230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§ 240.12b-2 of this chapter).
Emerging growth company
☒
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.
o
Item 8.01.
Other Events.
On October 19, 2026, Strive, Inc. ("Strive" or the "Company") announced that during the period from October 12, 2026 through October 16, 2026, Strive purchased 4,045 bitcoin at an average price of approximately $82,803 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses. This includes 2,822 bitcoin purchased during the period from October 12, 2026 through October 13, 2026, as previously announced on October 14, 2026, and 1,223 bitcoin purchased during the period from October 14, 2026 through October 16, 2026 at an average price of approximately $81,734 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses. The Company also announced the following updates to its holdings of cash and cash equivalents, bitcoin, and Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock of Strategy Inc. (the "STRC Stock") and shares outstanding of Class A common stock, Class B common stock, and Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock (the "SATA Stock"):
As of October 9, 2026
As of October 16, 2026
Change
Cash and cash equivalents (in thousands)
$
310,300
$
317,500
$
7,200
Fair value of STRC Stock (in thousands)
$
50,328
$
49,349
$
(979)
Shares of STRC held
505,000
505,000
—
Bitcoin held
32,773
36,818
4,045
Shares outstanding:
(1)
Class A common stock
101,169,907
114,847,610
13,677,703
Class B common stock
9,217,297
9,216,516
(781)
Effective Common Shares Outstanding
(2)
110,387,204
124,064,126
13,676,922
Options
(3)
796,642
793,642
(3,000)
Unvested employee stock awards
(3)
1,932,252
1,932,252
—
Assumed Fully Diluted Shares
(4)
113,116,098
126,790,020
13,673,922
Shares Underlying Traditional Warrants
(5)
15,255,900
—
(15,255,900)
SATA Stock
(6)
14,030,176
14,030,176
—
(1)
Includes shares outstanding and shares sold through 4:00pm EST, which will be issued on the following business day.
(2)
Effective Common Shares Outstanding is calculated as the sum of Class A common stock and Class B common stock.
(3)
Represents outstanding, but unvested employee stock awards, which are subject to ongoing time and/or performance conditions. For any awards in which the achievement of performance conditions affect the number of shares to ultimately vest, represents the target number of shares granted.
(4)
Assumed Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding represents Effective Common Shares Outstanding plus shares underlying all potentially dilutive securities, including options and unvested RSUs. Shares underlying Traditional Warrants are excluded from this figure.
(5)
Represents shares exercisable underlying Traditional Warrants. As previously announced on October 14, 2026, during the period from October 12, 2026 through October 13, 2026, 273,493,909 Traditional Warrants to purchase 13,674,703 shares of Class A common stock were exercised for gross proceeds of approximately $369.2 million. The remaining warrants, assumed in connection with the Company’s September 2025 merger with Asset Entities Inc., expired unexercised on October 13, 2026. Exercises of traditional warrants subject to the payment of exercise price to Company. As of October 16, 2026, all Traditional Warrants had been exercised or had expired, and no Traditional Warrants remain outstanding.
(6)
On October 15, 2026, the company priced an underwritten public offering of 7,000,000 shares of its 15.00% Series A Perpetual SATS Preferred Stock ($700 million aggregate stated amount) at a public offering price of $90.00 per share, for expected proceeds of approximately $630 million before underwriting discounts and commissions and estimated offering expenses. The offering is scheduled to settle on October 20, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. No shares of SATS Stock were outstanding and no proceeds had been received as of the dates presented.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements herein and in the press release attached hereto may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and Rule 175 promulgated thereunder, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and Rule 3b-6 promulgated thereunder, which statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, express or implied statements regarding the outlook and expectations of Strive and its subsidiaries, the strategic benefits and financial benefits of the merger transaction with Semler
Scientific, Inc. (the "merger transaction"), including the expected impact of the merger transaction on Strive's future financial performance and the ability to successfully integrate the combined businesses, and Strive’s intentions with respect to adjusting the SATA Stock dividend rate. Such statements are often characterized by the use of qualified words (and their derivatives) such as “may,” “will,” “anticipate,” “could,” “should,” “would,” “believe,” “contemplate,” “expect,” “estimate,” “continue,” “plan,” “project,” “predict,” “potential,” “assume,” “forecast,” “target,” “budget,” “outlook,” “trend,” “guidance,” “objective,” “goal,” “strategy,” “opportunity,” and “intend,” as well as words of similar meaning or other statements concerning opinions or judgments of Strive and its management team about future events. Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions as of the time they are made and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that are difficult to predict with regard to timing, extent, likelihood and degree of occurrence, which could cause actual results to differ materially from anticipated results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors. Other risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among others, the following:
•
the outcome of any legal proceedings that may be instituted against Strive or its subsidiaries;
•
the possibility that the anticipated benefits of the merger transaction are not realized when expected or at all, including as a result of changes in, or problems arising from, implementation of Bitcoin treasury strategies and risks associated with Bitcoin and other digital assets, general economic and market conditions, interest and exchange rates, monetary policy, and laws and regulations and their enforcement;
•
the diversion of management’s attention from ongoing business operations and opportunities;
•
dilution caused by Strive’s issuance of additional shares of its Class A common stock or SATA Stock;
•
potential adverse reactions of Strive’s clients and customers or changes to business or employee relationships, including those resulting from the completion of the merger transaction;
•
other factors that may affect future results of Strive or the future trading performance of its Class A common stock or SATA Stock.
These factors are not necessarily all of the factors that could cause Strive’s actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by any of the forward-looking statements. Other factors, including unknown or unpredictable factors, also could harm Strive’s results.
Although Strive believes that its expectations with respect to forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions within the bounds of its existing knowledge of its business and operations, there can be no assurance that the actual results of Strive will not differ materially from any projected future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Additional factors that could cause results to differ materially from those described above can be found in Strive’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, and other documents subsequently filed by Strive with the SEC.
The actual results anticipated may not be realized or, even if substantially realized, they may not have the expected consequences to or effects on Strive or its businesses or operations. Investors are cautioned not to rely too heavily on any such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements contained herein and in the press release attached hereto speak only as of the date hereof, and Strive undertakes no obligation to update or clarify these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by applicable law.
SIGNATURE
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
Strive, Inc.
Date:
October 19, 2026
By:
/s/ Matthew Cole
Matthew Cole
Chief Executive Officer

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  1. 2459d93386 · 2026-10-19 20:03 · doubao / doubao-seed-evolving-latest-version · 策略包 658c0c1e2ba5当前