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🇺🇸 SECStrive, Inc.Doubao · 实盘不做把握 4/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 19:59:44·⟳ 抓取 20:00:10 +26s·⚡ 决策 10-26 20:03:00 +2m50s·17.9 小时前

Strive 8-K 披露 10/17–23 再购 6,182 枚比特币、持仓增至 43,000 枚,同时增发 326 万股与 700 万股 SATS 优先股

这是 Strive 每周一次的例行比特币持仓更新(10/5、10/13、10/19、10/26 同式 8-K),增持 6,182 枚 BTC 是市场已知的持续国库策略,并非新的方向性催化;且多空信号自相对冲——BTC 积累偏正面,但同期有效普通股被稀释约 2.6%、新增 700 万股高息 SATS 优先股。两条对齐先例显示此类公告反应方向不稳定(10/13 后 5 日 -7.8%,10/19 当日 +6%,胜率仅 50%、样本极薄),盘前股价反而 -1.5%。真正的稀释/供给催化(10 亿美元 SATS ATM)已由同日更早的前序做空决策捕获,本 8-K 不提供独立正期望,故不做。

📄 原文Strive, Inc.↗ 原文
----- asst-20261026.htm ----- UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 _________________…
不做 Strive, Inc.(ASST.US)
每周例行比特币持仓更新,增持属市场已预期的既定策略、无新催化;买币正面与约 2.6% 股本稀释+700 万股新增 15% SATS 优先股相互抵消,方向不明;两条同式先例反应方向矛盾、样本极薄,盘前已 -1.5%,且稀释/供给催化已被同日更早的 SATS ATM 做空决策覆盖,本 8-K 无独立正期望,不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

Strive 例行周度披露再购 6,182 枚 BTC(持仓 43,000 枚),属既定国库策略的常规执行,叠加约 2.6% 股本稀释与 700 万股新增 SATS,多空交织;先例反应方向不一且盘前小跌,无独立 edge,稀释催化已被前序 SATS 做空决策覆盖,不做。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-26 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-10-26 07:59 EDT首发SEC EDGAR 8-K一手源原文 ↗
    Strive 8-K Item 8.01 披露 10/17–23 购 6,182 枚 BTC、持仓 43,000 枚及现金/股本/SATS 更新,盘前 07:59 美东提交
    市场反应:盘前 ASST 报 28.54 美元、-1.5%,夜盘最低 27.07(约 -4.1%)

关键理由

  • 增持属预期内的持续策略而非新催化:近三周连续提交同式 8-K(10/5、10/13、10/19、10/26),市场对每周买币节奏已充分预期
  • 信号自相抵消:BTC 持仓增加偏正面,但同期增发 326 万普通股(约 +2.6%)与 700 万股 SATS 优先股,且买入均价 82,732 美元属融资驱动扩张,净方向不清

主要风险

  • 比特币价格当日大涨/大跌会通过国库 beta 主导 ASST 股价,可能盖过公告本身的中性判断
  • 若 SATS 发售或并购 Semler Scientific 出现超预期条款,可能放大稀释或情绪波动

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-14 · 影响 weakens
    新浪/智通报道市场对其 15% 高息优先股融资买币存在争议,股权与优先股稀释削弱增持的每股利好
    检索:Strive ASST dilution SATS preferred 15% dividend bitcoin purchase criticism 原文 ↗
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-10-26 · 影响 weakens
    本 8-K 本身是 BTC 持续积累、零债、现金充裕的正面叙事,且净方向并未明确利空,单纯据此追空不成立;真正的稀释催化(SATS ATM)已被前序决策覆盖
    检索:Strive ASST bitcoin holdings 43000 record purchase October 2026 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例方向矛盾、样本不足,且本次盘前已小跌、稀释被同日 ATM 前置定价,确认不给 LONG 也不重复开 SHORT,最终 AVOID

方向:两条同公司、同机制、同相位先例方向相反:一次当日 +6%(超跌反弹背景),一次 5 日 -7.8%(稀释争议背景),1 日胜率 50%,无法确立可靠正向方向

涨幅量级:样本极薄(n=2,仅 1 条有完整 1/3/5 日),decision_grade 无有效高相似样本,不足以据以设定 tp/sl;波动也主要被 BTC 价格和锚前位置主导

形态:未见稳定见光死模式,但 10/13 一条呈现公告后高开低走、持续走弱;10/19 的上涨更像锚前 -13% 后的反弹,均非公告独立驱动

历史先例(按相似度)

  • 相似度 9/10 ASST 2026-10-19 购 4,045 枚 BTC、持仓 36,818;锚前持续下跌后的例行更新 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +6.0% · +2日 +12.3%
    ⚠盘中首发但只有日线,混入首发前走势·未核对目标相位 — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
    相似度依据:同一公司、同为盘前例行周度比特币购买 8-K,机制与相位完全对齐,仅购买枚数不同
    经验:买币公告可当日上涨,但锚前 5 日已跌 13%,更像超跌反弹而非公告本身的独立利好
  • 相似度 9/10 ASST 2026-10-13 购 3,311 枚 BTC、均价约 84,500、持仓 32,773;高息股引争议 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -0.4% · +2日 -10.9% · +3日 -7.4% · +4日 -13.1% · +5日 -7.8%
    ⚠盘中首发但只有日线,混入首发前走势·未核对目标相位 — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
    相似度依据:同一公司、同为盘前例行周度比特币购买 8-K,机制与相位完全对齐
    经验:例行买币叠加高息优先股融资时,市场可解读为稀释,随后 5 日明显下跌,方向并不稳定
工具执行结果 · 成功 3 · 降级 1 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
  1. search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 236 ms
    {"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`asst bitcoin purchase sats preferred stock | strive asst 购买 6182 比特币 8-k | strive inc bitcoin holdings 43000 october 2026`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 69.8/72 小时、2925 条本臂决策(完整),返回 1 条候选。\n• 10-26 11:53 UTC(北京 19:53) [bm25:50%] 不做 ASST.US,SATS.US (sec_edg
  2. stock_quote 降级 stock_tools HTTP · 86 ms
    {
  3. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,602 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Strive ASST bitcoin purchase announcement stock reaction October 2026;API SearchType:web)
  4. event_study 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 45 ms
    {

原文全文

展开原文 · 9,676 字
----- asst-20261026.htm -----
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549
_________________________________________________________
FORM
8-K
_________________________________________________________
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported):
October 26, 2026
_________________________________________________________
STRIVE, INC.
(Exact name of Registrant as Specified in Its Charter)
_________________________________________________________
Nevada
001-41612
88-1293236
(State or Other Jurisdiction
of Incorporation)
(Commission File Number)
(IRS Employer
Identification No.)
200 Crescent Ct.
,
Suite 1400
,
Dallas
,
Texas
75201
(Address of principal executive offices and zip code)
Registrant’s Telephone Number, Including Area Code: (
855
)
427-7360
(Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)
_________________________________________________________
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:
☐
Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
☐
Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
☐
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
☐
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
Title of each class
Trading
Symbol(s)
Name of each exchange on which registered
Class A common stock, $0.001 par value per share
ASST
The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC
Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock, $0.001 par value per share
SATA
The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC
15.00% Series A Perpetual SATS Preferred Stock, $0.001 par value per share
SATS
The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§ 230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§ 240.12b-2 of this chapter).
Emerging growth company
☒
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.
o
Item 8.01.
Other Events.
On October 26, 2026, Strive, Inc. ("Strive" or the "Company") announced that during the period from October 17, 2026 through October 23, 2026, Strive purchased 6,182 bitcoin at an average price of approximately $82,732 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses. The Company also announced the following updates to its holdings of cash and cash equivalents, bitcoin, and Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock of Strategy Inc. (the "STRC Stock") and shares outstanding of Class A common stock, Class B common stock, Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock (the "SATA Stock"), and 15.00% Series A Perpetual SATS Preferred Stock (the "SATS Stock"):
As of October 16, 2026
As of October 23, 2026
Change
Cash and cash equivalents (in thousands)
$
317,500
$
504,400
$
186,900
Fair value of STRC Stock (in thousands)
$
49,349
$
50,177
$
828
Shares of STRC held
505,000
505,000
—
Bitcoin held
36,818
43,000
6,182
Shares outstanding:
(1)
Class A common stock
114,847,610
118,113,644
3,266,034
Class B common stock
9,216,516
9,214,702
(1,814)
Effective Common Shares Outstanding
(2)
124,064,126
127,328,346
3,264,220
Options
(3)
793,642
784,092
(9,550)
Unvested employee stock awards
(3)
1,932,252
1,932,252
—
Assumed Fully Diluted Shares
(4)
126,790,020
130,044,690
3,254,670
SATS Stock
—
7,000,000
7,000,000
SATA Stock
14,030,176
14,030,176
—
(1)
Includes shares outstanding and shares sold through 4:00pm EST, which will be issued on the following business day.
(2)
Effective Common Shares Outstanding is calculated as the sum of Class A common stock and Class B common stock.
(3)
Represents outstanding, but unvested employee stock awards, which are subject to ongoing time and/or performance conditions. For any awards in which the achievement of performance conditions affect the number of shares to ultimately vest, represents the target number of shares granted.
(4)
Assumed Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding represents Effective Common Shares Outstanding plus shares underlying all potentially dilutive securities, including options and unvested employee stock awards.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements herein and in the press release attached hereto may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and Rule 175 promulgated thereunder, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and Rule 3b-6 promulgated thereunder, which statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, express or implied statements regarding the outlook and expectations of Strive and its subsidiaries, the strategic benefits and financial benefits of the merger transaction with Semler Scientific, Inc. (the "merger transaction"), including the expected impact of the merger transaction on Strive's future financial performance and the ability to successfully integrate the combined businesses, and Strive’s intentions with respect to adjusting the SATA Stock dividend rate. Such statements are often characterized by the use of qualified words (and their derivatives) such as “may,” “will,” “anticipate,” “could,” “should,” “would,” “believe,” “contemplate,” “expect,” “estimate,” “continue,” “plan,” “project,” “predict,” “potential,” “assume,” “forecast,” “target,” “budget,” “outlook,” “trend,” “guidance,” “objective,” “goal,” “strategy,” “opportunity,” and “intend,” as well as words of similar meaning or other statements concerning opinions or judgments of Strive and its management team about future events. Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions as of the time they are made and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that are difficult to predict with regard to timing, extent, likelihood and degree of occurrence, which could cause actual results to differ materially from anticipated results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors. Other risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among others, the following:
•
the outcome of any legal proceedings that may be instituted against Strive or its subsidiaries;
•
the possibility that the anticipated benefits of the merger transaction are not realized when expected or at all, including as a result of changes in, or problems arising from, implementation of Bitcoin treasury strategies and risks associated with Bitcoin and other digital assets, general economic and market conditions, interest and exchange rates, monetary policy, and laws and regulations and their enforcement;
•
the diversion of management’s attention from ongoing business operations and opportunities;
•
dilution caused by Strive’s issuance of additional shares of its Class A common stock, SATA Stock or SATS Stock;
•
potential adverse reactions of Strive’s clients and customers or changes to business or employee relationships, including those resulting from the completion of the merger transaction;
•
other factors that may affect future results of Strive or the future trading performance of its Class A common stock, SATA Stock or SATS Stock.
These factors are not necessarily all of the factors that could cause Strive’s actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by any of the forward-looking statements. Other factors, including unknown or unpredictable factors, also could harm Strive’s results.
Although Strive believes that its expectations with respect to forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions within the bounds of its existing knowledge of its business and operations, there can be no assurance that the actual results of Strive will not differ materially from any projected future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Additional factors that could cause results to differ materially from those described above can be found in Strive’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, and other documents subsequently filed by Strive with the SEC.
The actual results anticipated may not be realized or, even if substantially realized, they may not have the expected consequences to or effects on Strive or its businesses or operations. Investors are cautioned not to rely too heavily on any such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements contained herein and in the press release attached hereto speak only as of the date hereof, and Strive undertakes no obligation to update or clarify these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by applicable law.
SIGNATURE
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
Strive, Inc.
Date:
October 26, 2026
By:
/s/ Matthew Cole
Matthew Cole
Chief Executive Officer

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  1. 8244859389 · 2026-10-26 20:03 · doubao / doubao-seed-evolving-latest-version · 策略包 b7b4acf827b8当前