Blue Orca 在 Sohn Tokyo 发布做多报告：Rohm、中部电力、TRE Holdings 持有东芝私有化主体 TBJ 巨额隐蔽权益，估算潜在升幅 51%–152%

O c t o b e r 2 0 2 6


IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Note: This slide deck was presented at Sohn Tokyo on Friday October 16, 2026.
We are long the securities of Rohm Co. Ltd. (6963 JP), Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. (9502 JP), and TRE Holdings Corporation (9247 JP). Obviously, we will make money if the price of these companies’ securities rises. Like any investor, we attempt to
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• The Toshiba take-private by Japan Industrial Partners will be a home run,
potentially generating a 12x to 25x gross multiple on equity
• The Toshiba buyout was largely funded by Japanese public companies,
for three of these LPs in particular the gross value of their Toshiba stake
could be worth 80-96% of current market cap at the midpoint of our
equity value estimate, implying significant upside
• Rohm (6963 JP)
• Chubu Electric Power (9502 JP)
• TRE Holdings (9247 JP)
3
Executive Summary: The “Toshiba Three”


• Beginning in 2015, Toshiba went through a series of accounting and governance scandals
• Consortium led by Japan Industrial Partners took Toshiba private in 2023, price similar to 2015 pre-scandal
price after 8 years of underperformance
• Total deal capitalization of approximately ¥2,350B with only an estimated ~¥716B of equity, mostly provided
by Japanese companies
• Since deal closed in late 2023 value of several Toshiba businesses has likely skyrocketed due to AI datacenter
demand, and overall technology conglomerate comparable Hitachi up 2.8x
4
Background on Toshiba Buyout
Energy Solutions: High voltage
transformers, switchgear,
turbine generators, nuclear
Semiconductor: Silicon power
MOSFETs and IGBTs, SiC/GaN,
microcontrollers, analog
integrated circuits
Storage: Hard disk drives
including high-capacity nearline
HDDs for hyperscalers
Comp: GE Vernova up 7x
Comp: Japan Semi ETF up 2x
Comp: Seagate up 9x
Source: Bloomberg LP, BOC analysis


5
Toshiba’s Financials
Toshiba’s financial results since buyout have inflected, then accelerated
Source: Toshiba IR materials
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
FY3/23
Q1
FY3/23
Q2
FY3/23
Q3
FY3/23
Q4
FY3/24
Q1
FY3/24
Q2
FY3/24
Q3
FY3/24
Q4
FY3/25
Q1
FY3/25
Q2
FY3/25
Q3
FY3/25
Q4
FY3/26
Q1
FY3/26
Q2
FY3/26
Q3
FY3/26
Q4
FY3/27
Q1
Percent
Quarter
Toshiba Revenue Growth (YoY) and EBITDA Margin by Quarter
Revenue growth (YoY %)
EBITDA margin (%)
Buyout


14
6
Toshiba’s Outlook
Our model shows Toshiba reaching ¥780.9B in EBITDA in FY 3/2028
Source: Toshiba IR materials, Blue Orca Capital Analysis and Estimates
Fiscal year ending 31 March
FY3/22
FY3/23
FY3/24
FY3/25
FY3/26
FY3/27E
FY3/28E
Basis
Reported
Reported
Estimated
Estimated
Estimated
Forecast
Forecast
NET SALES BY SEGMENT (¥bn, incl. intersegment)
Energy Solutions
559.0
669.5
700.0
760.0
820.0
984.0
1,131.6
Digital Infrastructure Solutions
1,484.3
1,376.9
1,300.0
1,360.0
1,400.0
1,610.0
1,771.0
Devices & Technology
859.8
797.1
800.0
900.0
1,000.0
1,310.2
1,527.4
Retail & Printing (Toshiba Tec)
453.2
513.1
548.1
577.0
569.3
592.1
609.8
Others (battery, corporate, other)
216.5
232.7
190.0
190.0
190.0
199.5
205.5
Total segment sales
3,572.8
3,589.3
3,538.1
3,787.0
3,979.3
4,695.8
5,245.3
Eliminations
(235.8)
(227.6)
(252.3)
(273.1)
(270.2)
(319.3)
(356.7)
Consolidated net sales
3,337.0
3,361.7
3,285.8
3,513.9
3,709.1
4,376.5
4,888.6
YoY growth
0.7%
(2.3%)
6.9%
5.6%
18.0%
11.7%
EBITDA (¥bn) — Toshiba definition: operating income + depreciation + impairment
Consolidated reported operating income
158.9
110.5
39.9
198.5
300.8
477.9
625.9
Depreciation, amortisation and impairment charges
85.2
115.9
140.1
139.8
181.0
140.0
155.0
EBITDA
244.1
226.4
180.0
338.3
481.8
617.9
780.9
EBITDA margin
7.3%
6.7%
5.5%
9.6%
13.0%
14.1%
16.0%


7
Toshiba’s Kioxia Stake
•
Despite selling a majority stake to Bain in 2018,
Toshiba retains an 11.8% stake in Kioxia worth
~¥2,500B, 1.1x original total Toshiba buyout
value of ~¥2,350B and ~3.5x ~¥716B equity
check
•
Kioxia shares up approximately 27x from IPO,
despite pullback from highs, 3.4x P/E for FY
3/27, only 2.7x P/E for FY 3/28
•
We estimate Toshiba has sold ~¥2,200B of
Kioxia stock, more than wiping out buyout debt,
mezzanine and preferred financing and likely
leaving Toshiba in a significant net cash position
•
Recent media reports indicate Kioxia is
considering a U.S. ADR listing, which may
enhance valuation and liquidity
Source: Bloomberg LP, BOC analysis
¥0
¥5,000
¥10,000
¥15,000
¥20,000
¥25,000
¥30,000
¥35,000
¥40,000
Dec-24
Feb-25
Apr-25
Jun-25
Aug-25
Oct-25
Dec-25
Feb-26
Apr-26
Jun-26
Aug-26
Kioxia (285A JP) Share Price (¥)


8
Toshiba Buyout Value
•
Recent media reports suggest Toshiba may go public in 2028, but we believe due to demand
for AI infrastructure stocks the IPO could be pulled into 2027
•
At 8-12x our Toshiba EBITDA estimate, and range of Kioxia stock prices from down 50% to 52
Wk High, we estimate Toshiba buyout equity returns 12x-25x gross equity invested
Source: Blue Orca Capital Analysis and Estimates
Toshiba Sum-of-the-Parts Value (¥B)
Scenario
Low
Base
High
1. TOSHIBA OPERATING BUSINESS (excluding Kioxia)
Toshiba FY3/28E EBITDA — our estimate, from Segment Model
780.9
780.9
780.9
EV/EBITDA multiple
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
Toshiba operating enterprise value
6,246.9
7,808.6
9,370.3
Plus: Toshiba net cash — our estimate
1,158.1
1,158.1
1,158.1
Less: minority interests at estimated value (Toshiba Tec, Toshiba Elevator)
(250.0)
(250.0)
(250.0)
Toshiba equity value, excluding Kioxia
7,155.0
8,716.7
10,278.5
2. KIOXIA STAKE
Toshiba's remaining Kioxia holding (shares)
194,193,100
194,193,100
194,193,100
as % of Kioxia issued shares
11.8%
11.8%
11.8%
Kioxia share price assumed (yen, post-split) — Base is the current market
6,440
12,880
37,567
Value of Toshiba's Kioxia stake
1,250.6
2,501.2
7,295.2

3. TOSHIBA TOTAL EQUITY AND BUYOUT MULTIPLE, PRE-TAX
Toshiba total equity value
8,405.6
11,217.9
17,573.6
of which Kioxia
14.9%
22.3%
41.5%
Original buyout equity
715.9
715.9
715.9
Multiple of Buyout Equity, Pre-Tax
11.7x
15.7x
24.5x


9
The “Toshiba Three”
•
We have identified three publicly traded Japanese companies whose gross ownership of
Toshiba potentially exceeds 80-96% of current market cap at the midpoint of our estimated
valuation range, pre-tax
•
Our analysis suggests the market has not yet priced in this prospective windfall, as investments
are carried at cost less returned capital on balance sheet
Source: Rohm PR, July 18, 2023; Chubu PR September 21, 2023; TRE Holdings PR September 21, 2023; TBJ Holdings Status Report; BOC analysis
TBJ Holdings Ownership Summary
Limited partner
Ticker
Commitment
(¥B)
TBJ Holdings
Shares (M)
% of Equity
Gross Value
(pre tax)
Co Mkt Cap
(¥B)
% of Mkt Cap
Rohm
6963
100.0
10.0
14.0%
1,567

1,641

95.5%
Chubu Electric Power
9502
100.0
10.0
14.0%
1,567

1,956

80.1%
TRE Holdings
9247
5.0
0.5
0.7%
78

89

87.9%
Total "Toshiba Three"
205.0
20.5
28.6%
Other TB Investment Limited Partnership
304.0
30.4
42.5%
Total TB Investment Limited Partnership
509.0
50.9
71.1%
Brick Lane Exempted LP
169.2
16.9
23.6%
Holland Park Exempted LP
37.7
3.8
5.3%
Total Equity
715.9
71.6
100.0%
Total Toshiba Equity Value, Midpoint
11,217.9



10
Rohm: 6963 JP
• We are particularly excited about Rohm, whose
core power & analog semiconductor business is
undergoing a fundamental inflection, to the
point we expect an upward revision to FY3/27
earnings estimates
• Rohm also working with Nvidia on new 800VDC
Architecture for AI datacenters, which should
significantly expand power semiconductor
addressable market
• Sell-side analysts note Toshiba stake, but use
stale valuations that do not account for recent
Toshiba growth
Sources: Blue Orca Capital Analysis and Estimates; Nvidia 800VDC Architecture webpage


11
Rohm: SOTP 51% to 144% Upside
Source: Bloomberg LP, BOC assumptions and analysis; Rohm FY 3/2026 Year End Presentation
Rohm committed to using
Toshiba proceeds to benefit
shareholders:
ROHM (6963) — Sum of the parts (¥B)
Scenario
Low
Base
High
Toshiba total equity value
8,405.6
11,217.9
17,573.6
Rohm's interest in the Toshiba vehicle
14.0%
14.0%
14.0%
Rohm's look-through stake, pre-tax
1,174.1
1,566.9
2,454.7
Rohm's Toshiba equity stake after 30% tax
851.9
1,126.8
1,748.3
Multiple of investment after tax
8.5x
11.3x
17.5x
Rohm Standalone Business
FY3/29E EBITDA (Bloomberg consensus)
165.1
165.1
165.1
EV/EBITDA multiple
10.0x
12.5x
15.0x
Rohm standalone enterprise value
1,651.0
2,063.8
2,476.5
Plus: Rohm net cash at June 30 2026, assumes conversion
268.9
268.9
268.9
Rohm standalone equity value
1,919.9
2,332.7
2,745.4
Total Value per Share
Toshiba stake after tax
852
1,127
1,748
Rohm equity standalone
1,920
2,333
2,745
Total Rohm equity value
2,772
3,459
4,494
Rohm shares outstanding (millions, fully diluted)
452.6
452.6
452.6
Toshiba stake after tax, per share
1,882
2,490
3,863
Rohm equity standalone, per share
4,242
5,154
6,066
TOTAL VALUE PER Rohm SHARE (yen)
6,124
7,644
9,929
Current Rohm share price (yen)
4,064
4,064
4,064
Upside / (downside) to total value
51%
88%
144%
Toshiba + Kioxia as % of total SOTP value
31%
33%
39%
Toshiba + Kioxia as % of the current share price
46%
61%
95%


12
Chubu Electric Power: 9502 JP
Source: Chubu PR, September 21, 2023; Chubu Medium-Term Management Plan, April 28, 2026; Bloomberg LP, BOC assumptions and analysis
• Chubu Electric Power is an electric
utility based in Nagoya, whose stock
trades at ¥2,580 vs. a book value of
¥4,195 per share
• Several scandals regarding Hamaoka
nuclear plant resulted in negative
headlines and management change,
but limited financial impact
• Invested ¥100B in TB Investment LP,
and we believe carries the investment
at cost less capital returned on
balance sheet
• Upon hypothetical value realization,
book value per share would
significantly increase, raising discount
to book value
Chubu Electric Power (9502) — Potential value uplift (¥B)
Scenario
Low
Base
High
Toshiba total equity value
8,405.6
11,217.9
17,573.6
Chubu's interest in the Toshiba vehicle
14.0%
14.0%
14.0%
Chubu's look-through stake, pre-tax
1,174.1
1,566.9
2,454.7
Chubu's Toshiba equity stake after 30% tax
851.9
1,126.8
1,748.3
Multiple of investment after tax
8.5x
11.3x
17.5x
Total Value per Share
Toshiba stake after tax
852
1,127
1,748
Current book value
3,169
3,169
3,169
Total pro forma book value
4,021
4,296
4,917
Chubu shares outstanding (millions, fully diluted)
755.4
755.4
755.4
Toshiba stake after tax value per share
1,128
1,492
2,314
Current book value per share
4,195
4,195
4,195
TOTAL PRO FORMA BOOK VALUE PER CHUBU SHARE (yen)
5,323
5,687
6,509
Current Chubu share price (yen)
2,580
2,580
2,580
Toshiba + Kioxia as % of the current share price
44%
58%
90%
Upside / (downside) to total pro forma book value per share
106%
120%
152%
Toshiba + Kioxia as % of total pro forma book value
21%
26%
36%


13
TRE Holdings Corp: 9247 JP
• TRE Holdings is a waste
treatment/recycling company based
in Tokyo, whose stock trades at
¥1,693 vs. a book value of ¥1,757 per
share
• TRE invested ¥5B in TB Investment LP,
and we believe carries the investment
at cost less capital returned on
balance
• Upon hypothetical value realization,
book value per share would
significantly increase
Source: TRE business outline; TRE press release, September 21, 2023; Bloomberg LP; BOC assumptions and analysis
TRE Holdings Corp. (9247) — Potential value uplift (¥B)
Scenario
Low
Base
High
Toshiba total equity value
8,405.6
11,217.9
17,573.6
TRE's interest in the Toshiba vehicle
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
TRE's look-through stake, pre-tax
58.7
78.3
122.7
TRE's Toshiba equity stake after 30% tax
42.6
56.3
87.4
Multiple of investment after tax
8.5x
11.3x
17.5x
Total Value per Share
Toshiba stake after tax
42.6
56.3
87.4
Current book value
82.6
82.6
82.6
Total pro forma book value
125.2
139.0
170.0
TRE shares outstanding (millions)
47.0
47.0
47.0
Toshiba stake after tax value per share
906
1,198
1,859
Current book value per share
1,757
1,757
1,757
TOTAL PRO FORMA BOOK VALUE PER TRE SHARE (yen)
2,663
2,955
3,616
Current TRE share price (yen)
1,693
1,693
1,693
Toshiba + Kioxia as % of the current share price
54%
71%
110%
Upside / (downside) to total pro forma book value per share
57%
75%
114%
Toshiba + Kioxia as % of total pro forma book value
34%
41%
51%


• Three Japanese companies have hidden Toshiba stakes that will potentially generate
windfalls material to their current market caps even after a 30% tax on gains
• Market may price in this windfall in advance of actual Toshiba IPO
• Chubu and TRE have less downside exposure to the AI infrastructure theme, as both
trade at or below book value with limited direct AI impact on core business
14
Summary: The “Toshiba Three”
Source: BOC assumptions and analysis
Rohm SOTP Per Share (¥)
Low
Base
High
Rohm standalone business
4,242
5,154
6,066
Toshiba stake after tax
1,882
2,490
3,863
Total value per share
6,124
7,644
9,929
Current share price
4,064
4,064
4,064
Potential upside
51%
88%
144%
Chubu Book Value Per Share (¥)
Low
Base
High
Current book value
4,195
4,195
4,195
Toshiba stake after tax
1,128
1,492
2,314
Total pro forma book value per share
5,323
5,687
6,509
Current share price
2,580
2,580
2,580
Toshiba + Kioxia as % of the current share price
44%
58%
90%
TRE H. Book Value Per Share (¥)
Low
Base
High
Current book value
1,757
1,757
1,757
Toshiba stake after tax
906
1,198
1,859
Total pro forma book value per share
2,663
2,955
3,616
Current share price
1,693
1,693
1,693
Toshiba + Kioxia as % of the current share price
54%
71%
110%