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北京时间·🕒 发布 11:43:22·⟳ 抓取 11:43:30 +8s·⚡ 决策 08-18 11:46:11 +2m41s·70.1 天前

TrendForce称AI需求推动高端MLCC交期拉长至5-10个月,紧缺或延续至2027年

AI服务器高端MLCC交期、库存和涨价数据继续验证MLCC结构性景气,对国内MLCC成品和上游材料链方向偏利多。

📄 原文TrendForce↗ 原文
[News] MLCC Lead Times Diverge as High-End Products Stretch to 5–10 Months on AI Demand; Tightness May Extend Into 2027…
不做 风华高科(000636.SZ)
受益逻辑成立,但正文点名信息与MLCC高端涨价逻辑已在7月前后广泛传播并交易,当前无真实报价和20日轨迹,不能给出可执行追多边界。
不做 三环集团(300408.SZ)
属于MLCC成品受益链,但本次未披露公司新增订单或量价增量,且主题已高扩散,边际预期差不足。
不做 博迁新材(605376.SH)
三星电机高端MLCC出货增长对镍粉供应链偏利多,但本条未坐实其产品进入本次AI服务器订单且A股MLCC链此前已集中异动。
不做 国瓷材料(300285.SZ)
粉体供应链长期受益,但当前事件是行业紧缺二次确认,缺少可量化新增订单和真实入场价,暂不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-06-17 · 扩散 high · price-in 风险 high ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-06-17行业媒体转载TrendForce一手源原文 ↗
    TrendForce已在6月17日提出AI ASIC推动高端MLCC规格集中、2H26或出现结构性短缺,说明本次逻辑并非首次出现。
  2. 2026-06-25财经媒体扩散证券时报非一手原文 ↗
    证券时报报道MLCC龙头及概念股已大涨,并引用AI服务器MLCC价格上涨和结构性短缺逻辑,显示A股映射链已被交易。
    市场反应:报道称风华高科6月25日涨停并创历史新高,多只MLCC概念股同步大涨。
  3. 2026-07-29 15:40 KST财经媒体扩散MoneyToday非一手原文 ↗
    MoneyToday报道三星电机MLCC自8月起涨价30%,并指出AI服务器需求导致库存紧张。
  4. 2026-07-29财经媒体扩散上海证券报非一手原文 ↗
    上海证券报报道A股MLCC概念大涨,风华高科、昀冢科技涨停,三环集团、博迁新材、国瓷材料跟涨。
    市场反应:该节点表明A股相关映射标的已因高端MLCC涨价预期出现集中反应。
  5. 2026-08-18 11:43 CST行业媒体转载TrendForce非一手原文 ↗
    TrendForce汇总多家媒体和分销渠道信息,补充高端MLCC交期分化至5-10个月和紧缺延续到2027年的判断。

关键理由

  • AI服务器高端MLCC交期、库存和涨价数据继续验证MLCC结构性景气,对国内MLCC成品和上游材料链方向偏利多。
  • 但本条是TrendForce对ETNews、Donghaeng Ilbo、NewsPim、The Elec、财闻、证券之星等旧有信息的二次汇总,核心事实已在7月下旬至8月上旬被市场交易。
  • 量级上三星电机两笔AI服务器MLCC合同合计约7450亿韩元,主要说明高端需求可见性;对A股映射标的的直接订单增量未披露,不能量化到单家公司收入或利润。

主要风险

  • MLCC概念在A股已多次被财经媒体集中报道并大幅异动,风华高科、火炬电子、博迁新材等前期涨幅和拥挤度较高,本次新增预期差不足。
  • 当前为A股午休且无可用真实stock_quote报价,不能给出合规入场价、止盈止损和price-in日线核查。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-29 · 影响 weakens
    上海证券报显示MLCC概念在7月29日已集中大涨,相关映射不再是低扩散首发机会。
    检索:A股 MLCC 概念 大涨 风华高科 博迁新材 价格上涨 已交易 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-06-25 · 影响 weakens
    证券时报报道风华高科6月25日涨停并创历史新高,且二季度以来融资资金加仓多只MLCC概念股,拥挤度偏高。
    检索:风华高科 MLCC 涨停 历史新高 2026 6月25日 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-06-17 · 影响 weakens
    TrendForce此前已披露高端MLCC短缺和交期拉长逻辑,本次8月文章更多是延续确认。
    检索:TrendForce AI MLCC structural shortage June 2026 lead time 20 weeks 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例不足叠加传播已高,最终不追多,只保留受益链观察。

方向:历史方向上,高端MLCC缺货、涨价和AI服务器订单通常利多MLCC制造商及上游材料链。

涨幅量级:本轮缺少可在当前工具条件下完成真实event_study的干净先例,且当前催化是持续报道链中的二次强化,不适合用旧样本校准追涨幅度。

形态:公开报道显示A股MLCC主题此前已有多轮涨停和高成交扩散,当前更接近高拥挤主题的后续确认而非首发低扩散催化。

原文全文

展开原文 · 3,848 字
[News] MLCC Lead Times Diverge as High-End Products Stretch to 5–10 Months on AI Demand; Tightness May Extend Into 2027
AI-driven demand is tightening the MLCC market, with supply conditions increasingly diverging between standard and high-end products. According to ETNews , lead times for standard-case MLCCs remain relatively stable at 14–18 weeks, or about 3.5–4.5 months, while high-capacitance and high-voltage products stand at around 15–20 weeks, or roughly 4–5 months. Lead-time data from electronic components distributor DigiKey point to even longer waits for certain products, with some Samsung Electro-Mechanics high-capacitance MLCCs reaching around 40 weeks, or nearly 10 months.

As noted by Donghaeng Ilbo , securities reports show that as of mid-August, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Murata, and Yageo had no inventory of certain high-capacitance MLCCs for servers and high-performance IT power supplies. Restocking is expected in November 2026 for Samsung Electro-Mechanics and December for Yageo, while one Murata product may not be replenished until January 2027. Against this backdrop, ETNews notes that new capacity originally expected in 4Q26 has been pushed into 2027, with lead times of five to 10 months or longer for high-specification products expected to persist.

Unlike previous cycles, when passive-component lead times typically moved with broader market conditions, the widening gap is seen as a structural shift in demand driven by AI rather than a temporary surge. ETNews also notes that extended lead times point to stronger pricing power and improving profitability as the product mix shifts toward higher-value offerings.

The tightening supply environment is already driving broader price hikes. According to Donghaeng Ilbo, Samsung Electro-Mechanics notified its Chinese sales subsidiary of a 30% price increase for shipments starting August 1. Taiyo Yuden, meanwhile, announced another price hike effective September 1 following an increase in May.

AI Server Demand Drives MLCC Deals and Pricing Power

Demand visibility is also extending into 2027. Samsung Electro-Mechanics has secured two major AI server MLCC supply contracts worth a combined roughly KRW 745 billion. According to NewsPim , the company signed deals worth roughly KRW 450 billion and KRW 295.12 billion with global customers, with both contracts covering supply throughout 2027. Beyond these major contracts, Samsung Electro-Mechanics is also expanding its broader long-term supply arrangements. According to The Elec , the company has expanded long-term agreements (LTAs) for AI server MLCCs to about 10 global customers.

Chinese suppliers are also benefiting from the tightening market. As noted by Caiwen , Fenghua Advanced Technology said in July that MLCC orders remain robust and capacity utilization remains high, with high-end products accounting for around 35%–40% of MLCC revenue. According to Stockstar , Fenghua has implemented two price adjustments this year, lifting prices by around 20% from the beginning of the year.

According to TrendForce , robust AI demand pushed June 2026 shipments from the top three Japanese and Korean suppliers—Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO), and Taiyo Yuden—to a five-year monthly high. Meanwhile, the continued spillover of consumer-grade MLCC orders is benefiting distributors and suppliers in Taiwan and China, driving up quotes.

Read more

AI Demand Pushes Japanese and Korean MLCC Suppliers to Record Monthly Shipments; Consumer-Grade Order Spillovers Continue to Surge, Says TrendForce

[News] Samsung Electro-Mechanics Lifts MLCC Prices 30% Starting Aug. 1; Taiyo Yuden Reportedly Eyes Sept. 1 Hike

(Photo credit: Samsung Electro-Mechanics)

Please note that this article cites information from  ETNews ,  Donghaeng Ilbo ,  NewsPim ,  The Elec ,  Caiwen , and  Stockstar .

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