📊 TrendForceTrendForceCodex · 实盘不做把握 4/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 11:44:40·⟳ 抓取 11:44:48 +8s·⚡ 决策 08-25 11:49:14 +4m26s·63.3 天前
小米玄戒O3据报采用长鑫LPDDR6与台积电3nm,短期可交易增量不足
事件方向偏正面,但核心可交易标的小米和台积电缺少足够短期可量化财务增量,长鑫不可直接交易,竞争对手受损也不构成强空催化。
📄 原文TrendForce↗ 原文
[News] Xiaomi XRING O3 Reportedly Features CXMT LPDDR6 and TSMC 3nm, May Expand TSMC Ties to AI and Auto Chips Xiaomi i…
不做 小米集团-W(01810.HK)
O3和LPDDR6进展方向利好,但目标出货20万至30万颗、利润增量未披露,Reuters主线已提前扩散,不追。
不做 台积电(2330.TW)
小米3nm订单对台积电是正面客户扩展,但量级相对台积电先进制程收入和市值太小,缺少独立交易edge。
不做 联发科(2454.TW)
小米自研芯片长期偏负面,但当前O3导入量级不足且不是明确强空催化,不开空。
不做 高通(QCOM.US)
小米减少外采的方向存在,但短期替代规模有限,不构成可执行做空事件。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
XRING O3支持LPDDR6并采用长鑫与台积电供应链,说明小米自研芯片和国产LPDDR6验证继续推进;但O3目标出货仅20万至30万颗,O100/D100仍是明年部署计划,未披露订单金额和利润影响。长鑫不可交易,台积电弹性太小,小米短线更像技术叙事强化而非业绩重估,因此不下单。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-08-24 · 扩散 high · price-in 风险 medium ↗
消息传播链
- 2026-08-24财经媒体扩散Reuters转述源非一手Reuters据消息人士报道小米XRING O3由台积电3nm生产,并给出20万至30万颗折叠机目标出货。
- 2026-08-24财经媒体扩散财联社/中文财经媒体非一手财联社等转述长鑫存储为小米O3 LPDDR6核心伙伴,强调国产LPDDR6首次进入旗舰处理器。
- TrendForce整合Reuters、财联社、Wccftech、界面和一财信息,强化小米自研芯片、长鑫LPDDR6和台积电3nm主线。
关键理由
- 小米XRING O3若量产顺利,将增强高端折叠机和端侧AI芯片叙事,但20万至30万颗目标相对小米整体手机销量占比很低。
- 台积电继续承接小米3nm芯片有利于先进制程客户广度,但相对其AI、苹果等主订单量级不足。
- 长鑫LPDDR6进入旗舰SoC是国产低功耗内存验证进展,但长鑫未上市且二阶映射未坐实。
主要风险
- 台积电代工、出货目标和长鑫合作均为媒体转述或消息人士口径,若当事方否认则主题热度会回落。
- 未披露订单金额、毛利率和收入确认节奏,无法形成可靠收入/利润/市值弹性测算。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-25 · 影响 weakens
O3折叠机目标出货仅20万至30万颗,削弱小米和台积电短期业绩弹性。
检索:Xiaomi XRING O3 shipment target 200000 300000 TSMC 3nm Reuters Qualcomm MediaTek supplier impact 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-25 · 影响 weakens
长鑫是最直接LPDDR6受益主体,但未上市,未能坐实可交易A股供应商与本次O3的直接收入敞口。
检索:CXMT LPDDR6 Xiaomi XRING O3 listed company exposure A share supplier official disclosure 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-25 · 影响 weakens
小米自研方向对高通、联发科长期偏负面,但当前O3导入规模不足以构成明确强空催化。
检索:Xiaomi in-house chip impact Qualcomm MediaTek O3 shipment 200000 300000 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例降低本次O3迭代消息的追高意愿,支持因量级不足和传播已扩散而不做小米。
方向:相似事件支持小米自研芯片叙事短线偏正面,但方向强度依赖是否首次、是否超预期以及是否有销量利润兑现。
涨幅量级:缺少3条以上高相似、锚点干净的同市场样本,不能用先例设定可执行涨幅目标。
形态:O1相关样本显示发布会前有情绪拉升,但发布会兑现或缺少商业化量级时容易分歧。
历史先例(按相似度)
- 相似度 7/10 1810.HK 2025-05-15 Reuters报道小米将在5月下旬发布自研Xring O1先进手机芯片,并称由台积电3nm制造。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +1.7% · +2日 +4.4% · +3日 +9.3% · +4日 +8.6% · +5日 +6.1%
⚠非首发(转载/聚合)·来源层级不符(声明wire/实为aggregator)·未核对目标相位 — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同为小米自研手机SoC与台积电先进制程报道,但O1为首次官宣,事件强度高于本次O3迭代。
经验:首次自研芯片官宣能带来情绪反应,但后续需要销量和利润兑现支撑。 - 相似度 6/10 1810.HK 2025-05-19 雷军预告战略新品发布会并披露玄戒O1采用3nm制程,小米港股当日上涨。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +1.6% · +2日 +6.4% · +3日 +5.7% · +4日 +3.3% · +5日 +2.9%
⚠未核对目标相位 — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同为小米自研芯片和产品发布预期,但叠加YU7新车,归因不纯。
经验:芯片叙事在发布会前可能刺激股价,若缺少销量和利润超预期,持续性有限。 - 相似度 5/10 1810.HK 2025-05-22 小米发布会前因未公布YU7价格和预售安排,股价盘中下跌。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -0.4% · +2日 -0.8% · +3日 -3.9% · +4日 -3.5% · +5日 -3.1%
⚠来源层级不符(声明wire/实为media) — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同一主体产品发布窗口,但股价受YU7发布节奏和发布会兑现影响更大。
经验:产品发布窗口若没有价格、订单或销量超预期,市场可能按兑现交易。
原文全文
展开原文 · 3,415 字
[News] Xiaomi XRING O3 Reportedly Features CXMT LPDDR6 and TSMC 3nm, May Expand TSMC Ties to AI and Auto Chips
Xiaomi is stepping up its in-house chip push with the launch of the XRING O3, bringing LPDDR6 support to its latest flagship mobile processor. According to Cailian Press , the XRING O3 is the world’s first flagship mobile processor (SoC) to support LPDDR6 memory, with Chinese memory leader CXMT serving as Xiaomi’s key LPDDR6 memory partner. The report adds that the launch marks the first use of domestically developed Chinese LPDDR6 memory in a flagship processor.
While CXMT is supplying the O3’s LPDDR6 memory, Xiaomi is reportedly relying on TSMC for the chip’s manufacturing. Reuters notes, citing sources, that TSMC will produce the XRING O3 on its 3nm process. As noted by Wccftech , while the O3 does not move to TSMC’s latest 2nm technology, Xiaomi has introduced a range of improvements on the 3nm N3P node. The report notes that the O3 features around 24 billion transistors, up from 19 billion on the O1, while its die size has increased to 133 mm² from 109 mm².
Xiaomi is also expanding its XRING chip lineup and its use of TSMC manufacturing. Reuters notes that the company has reportedly tapped TSMC for two other XRING chips: the 6nm XRING O100 neural processing unit for its MiMo large language model on consumer devices, and the 3nm XRING D100 for autonomous driving. Xiaomi says the O3 is already in mass production, while the O100 and D100 have completed development and are set for deployment next year, Reuters notes.
The XRING O3 is expected to power Xiaomi’s upcoming flagship foldable phone, with shipments targeted at 200,000 to 300,000 units, according to Reuters. Jiemian News further identifies the device as the Xiaomi 18 Fold, which is scheduled to launch in September. The Xiaomi Pad 9 Pro Max will also feature the new chip.
CXMT Accelerates LPDDR6 Push as Competition Takes Shape
The XRING O3 milestone comes as CXMT accelerates its broader push into LPDDR6. As noted by a Yicai report earlier this month, sources say CXMT has already provided LPDDR6 samples to key customers, with a product launch and mass-production ramp potentially coming in the second half of 2026. CXMT’s progress could put it among the earliest suppliers to mass-produce LPDDR6 globally. SK hynix is also moving quickly, having announced in March that it was the first globally to complete development and validation of 16Gb LPDDR6 based on its 1c, or sixth-generation 10nm-class, process. The company plans to complete mass-production preparations in the first half of 2026 and begin shipments in the second half, according to Yicai. Samsung and Micron are also advancing LPDDR6, though neither has disclosed a clear mass-production timeline, the report adds.
Against this backdrop, Yicai points out that if CXMT completes LPDDR6 R&D validation and begins mass production in the second half of 2026, it could become one of the world’s earliest LPDDR6 suppliers, putting it in direct competition with SK hynix.
Read more
[News] Xiaomi Unveils 3nm XRING O3, Reportedly First Mobile Chip to Support LPDDR6; Debuts on Xiaomi 18 Fold
[News] Huawei Reportedly Readies Mate 90, XT2 for Sept. with Tau Scaling Chips Said to Match 3nm Performance
(Photo credit: Xiaomi)
Please note that this article cites information from Cailian Press , Reuters , Wccftech , Jiemian News , and Yicai .
Xiaomi is stepping up its in-house chip push with the launch of the XRING O3, bringing LPDDR6 support to its latest flagship mobile processor. According to Cailian Press , the XRING O3 is the world’s first flagship mobile processor (SoC) to support LPDDR6 memory, with Chinese memory leader CXMT serving as Xiaomi’s key LPDDR6 memory partner. The report adds that the launch marks the first use of domestically developed Chinese LPDDR6 memory in a flagship processor.
While CXMT is supplying the O3’s LPDDR6 memory, Xiaomi is reportedly relying on TSMC for the chip’s manufacturing. Reuters notes, citing sources, that TSMC will produce the XRING O3 on its 3nm process. As noted by Wccftech , while the O3 does not move to TSMC’s latest 2nm technology, Xiaomi has introduced a range of improvements on the 3nm N3P node. The report notes that the O3 features around 24 billion transistors, up from 19 billion on the O1, while its die size has increased to 133 mm² from 109 mm².
Xiaomi is also expanding its XRING chip lineup and its use of TSMC manufacturing. Reuters notes that the company has reportedly tapped TSMC for two other XRING chips: the 6nm XRING O100 neural processing unit for its MiMo large language model on consumer devices, and the 3nm XRING D100 for autonomous driving. Xiaomi says the O3 is already in mass production, while the O100 and D100 have completed development and are set for deployment next year, Reuters notes.
The XRING O3 is expected to power Xiaomi’s upcoming flagship foldable phone, with shipments targeted at 200,000 to 300,000 units, according to Reuters. Jiemian News further identifies the device as the Xiaomi 18 Fold, which is scheduled to launch in September. The Xiaomi Pad 9 Pro Max will also feature the new chip.
CXMT Accelerates LPDDR6 Push as Competition Takes Shape
The XRING O3 milestone comes as CXMT accelerates its broader push into LPDDR6. As noted by a Yicai report earlier this month, sources say CXMT has already provided LPDDR6 samples to key customers, with a product launch and mass-production ramp potentially coming in the second half of 2026. CXMT’s progress could put it among the earliest suppliers to mass-produce LPDDR6 globally. SK hynix is also moving quickly, having announced in March that it was the first globally to complete development and validation of 16Gb LPDDR6 based on its 1c, or sixth-generation 10nm-class, process. The company plans to complete mass-production preparations in the first half of 2026 and begin shipments in the second half, according to Yicai. Samsung and Micron are also advancing LPDDR6, though neither has disclosed a clear mass-production timeline, the report adds.
Against this backdrop, Yicai points out that if CXMT completes LPDDR6 R&D validation and begins mass production in the second half of 2026, it could become one of the world’s earliest LPDDR6 suppliers, putting it in direct competition with SK hynix.
Read more
[News] Xiaomi Unveils 3nm XRING O3, Reportedly First Mobile Chip to Support LPDDR6; Debuts on Xiaomi 18 Fold
[News] Huawei Reportedly Readies Mate 90, XT2 for Sept. with Tau Scaling Chips Said to Match 3nm Performance
(Photo credit: Xiaomi)
Please note that this article cites information from Cailian Press , Reuters , Wccftech , Jiemian News , and Yicai .
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