📊 TrendForceTrendForceQwen · 实盘不做把握 8/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·🕒 发布 10:50:45·⟳ 抓取 10:50:56 +11s·⚡ 决策 09-09 12:07:16 +1h16m·48.3 天前
TrendForce 汇总韩媒报道：三星、SK 海力士均把 High-NA EUV 导入 DRAM 量产的目标定在 2028 年，美光仅通过招聘信息透露 1δ 节点扩用 EUV
本条是行业研究机构的综述聚合，所有实质内容均为对韩媒/FT/Tom's Hardware 既有报道的二次转引，核心事件（三星与SK海力士 2028 年 High-NA EUV 导入 DRAM）是两年外的技术路线图，未带来任何新的订单金额、产能承诺、客户定点、收入里程碑或指引修正。按「供给能力 ≠ 需求验证」分层，这属于路线图/demo 一档，不构成需求验证；按超大市值软催化规则，ASML、三星、SK海力士、美光四个直接主体均缺少相对市值足够的当期增量。同时四个标的近 20 日已分别 +26.3%（SK海力士）、+17.2%（三星）、+16.2%（美光）、+1.8%（ASML，9/8 单日 +2.91%），DRAM/HBM 上行周期正被激进定价，本条不改变该定价。二阶映射（12 英寸大光罩链 2031/2033 时间轴、A 股掩膜版与国产存储链）要么远超可交易窗口，要么无因果敞口，要么本身是 9 天前旧闻。自家案例库显示同日已对同主题的「台积电 2030 年导入 High-NA EUV、6×12 英寸光罩平台」条目判定不做，且 2026-09-02 已在更硬的需求催化（台积电设备采购需求升至约 1.9 倍）上持有 ASML 多头腿，无需在路线图复述上重复加仓。综合无正期望，判 RESEARCHED_AVOID，且不产生 risk_signals（无新增净负面事实）。
📄 原文TrendForce↗ 原文
[News] The Race to 2028: Samsung, SK hynix Set High-NA EUV Timelines for DRAM as Micron Stays Tight-Lipped As ASML unve…
不做 ASML（ASML.US）
存储客户 2028 年 High-NA EUV 导入属路线图级软催化：无新增订单、backlog、指引或金额；内部定量库显示 2025 年底 High-NA 累计仅约 8 台、SemiAnalysis 认为 2028 年 20 台/年不可能，且券商模型早已包含存储 High-NA 机台假设。超大市值 + 无当期增量 → 不做；已有的 ASML 多头逻辑来自 2026-09-02 台积电设备采购需求升至约 1.9 倍的硬催化，与本条无关，不需重复加仓
不做 SK海力士（000660.KS）
1c DRAM 占比 13%→34% 与 HBM4E 2027 量产均转引自 Chosun Biz 等既有报道，未改变收入或指引；DRAM/HBM 上行周期已是市场一致预期，股价近 20 日 +26.3%（9/7 单日 +8.26%），price-in 风险高。自家在该票历史 ENTER 胜率仅 26%、中位 -6.57%，无新增事实时不入场
不做 三星电子（005930.KS）
超大市值标的的路线图级信息，无 HBM4 客户定点、订单金额或收入里程碑；近 20 日已 +17.2%，本条不改变其定价。历史 ENTER 胜率 24%，缺乏 edge
不做 美光科技（MU.US）
全部依据为既有电话会表述（1δ 节点扩用最新一代 EUV）与一条 Albany High-NA EUV 工程师招聘启事，属最弱一档线索，对收入、资本开支或竞争格局无可量化影响；且近 20 日已 +16.2%，不构成新增做多理由
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
事实：TrendForce 2026-09-09 综述转引韩媒，称三星与SK海力士均把 High-NA EUV 用于 DRAM 量产的目标定在 2028 年，SK海力士考虑加入台积电主导的大尺寸光罩联盟，1c DRAM 占比 2Q26 约13%→4Q26 约34%，HBM4E 2027 量产；美光仅以 1δ 节点 EUV 扩用表述与 Albany 一条 High-NA 工程师招聘露出线索。影响链：High-NA 导入→未来机台/光罩/材料需求，但兑现点在 2028 年之后，且内部定量库记录 2025 年底 High-NA 累计仅约 8 台、SemiAnalysis 认为 2028 年 20 台/年目标不可能，ASML 券商模型早已包含存储 High-NA 机台假设。价格/证据：SK海力士近 20 日 +26.3%、三星 +17.2%、美光 +16.2%、ASML 9/8 +2.91%，周期叙事已在重定价；文中唯一的中国 HBM3E 线索为 The Information 2026-08-31 旧闻。结论：无新增可量化事实、无当期收入/订单/指引增量、二阶映射超出可交易窗口或无敞口，判 AVOID。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-09-09 · 扩散 high · price-in 风险 high ↗
主要风险
- 若后续出现存储厂对 ASML 的 High-NA 正式采购公告或资本开支上修，本判断需要重新评估；当前仅为媒体路线图转述。
- SK海力士/三星短期涨幅已大，若市场把此类路线图新闻当作追高理由，反而放大回撤风险——但这不构成做空催化。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-04-30 · 影响 invalidates
内部库命中的掩膜版产业链材料（国产替代系列报告）显示海外先进掩膜版由 HOYA、Photronics、DNP、Toppan 主导，A 股掩膜版厂面向国内成熟/次先进节点，与 High-NA 及 12 英寸大光罩无产品线交集；未发现任何 A 股标的对本次事件有可坐实敞口
检索:High-NA EUV 掩膜版 12英寸 photomask 供应商 DNP Toppan 设备材料受益 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 query_modeling_kb · 日期 2026-07-27 · 影响 weakens
定量库记录 2025 年底 High-NA（EXE:5000/5200B）累计供货仅约 8 台，SemiAnalysis 判断 2028 年 20 台/年的 High-NA 目标不可能实现；ASML 2025 年 EUV 系统营收 €11.6B、48 台 EUV，High-NA 当期贡献极小——2028 年存储导入路线图对 ASML 近期收入无实质弹性
检索:ASML High-NA EUV DRAM 机台出货 存储客户 - 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-08-31 · 影响 weakens
文中「中国开始有限量产 HBM3E」的底层来源为 The Information 约 2026-08-31 的报道，已在内部库与社媒广泛传播 9 天；瑞银 2026-08-07 首次覆盖亦已给出 CXMT 2028 年 HBM 占比特出货 2%、2030 年 7% 的路径——该分支为旧闻背景，不构成本次事件的新增催化，也削弱「国产替代二阶映射」的时效性
检索:中国 长鑫存储 HBM3E 小批量生产 国产存储 进展 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 search_case_library · 日期 2026-09-09 · 影响 supports
自家记录显示同日已对「台积电宣布 2030 年起导入 High-NA EUV、与 ASML 推进 6×12 英寸光罩平台（2031 试产/2033 量产）」判定不做；而 2026-09-02 的 ASML 多头腿建立在硬催化（台积电季度设备采购需求升至去年 12 月预估约 1.9 倍）之上。对比可知本条属同类路线图复述，缺乏需求验证级证据；另 SK海力士历史 ENTER 胜率 26%、三星 24%、ASML 30%，均不支持在无增量事实时加仓
检索:000660.KS / 005930.KS / ASML.US / MU.US 自家历史决策与近期催化 - 做多前查反向 · 来源 query_modeling_kb · 日期 2026-05-22 · 影响 weakens
HBM 占三厂 DRAM 晶圆产能预计 2027 年底约 35%、HBM TAM 2027 年超 $150B、缺口由 2025 年约5%→2026 年约6%→2027 年约9% 走阔，DRAM 稼动率 >90%——存储上行周期本身已是一致预期并体现在 SK海力士近 20 日 +26.3%、三星 +17.2%、美光 +16.2% 的股价中，本文的路线图信息未在该基线上增加可交易预期差
检索:SK海力士 1c DRAM HBM4E 量产 与 DRAM 供需缺口
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例缺失叠加路线图属性，使结论落在 AVOID：既没有幅度锚，也没有需求验证级催化，任何 ENTER 都将依赖想象而非证据
方向:无可用高相似先例。同类「远期技术路线图/设备导入时间表」的媒体报道通常不产生独立价格反应，本次四个标的的近期涨幅可由 DRAM/HBM 供需与设备采购需求等硬催化解释，与本条无因果对应
涨幅量级:未能用任何先例校准幅度：本次没有 aligned 层样本，因此不设 tp/sl 数字，直接判 AVOID
形态:无先例数据可判断高开低走/见光死；但自家决策库显示同日已对同主题「台积电 2030 年导入 High-NA、6×12 英寸光罩平台 2031 试产/2033 量产」条目判定不做，属同一类路线图复述
工具执行结果 · 成功 10 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 78 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`1c dram hbm4e sk海力士 出货占比 | asml high-na euv 12英寸掩膜版 large size mask consortium | euv 光刻 dram 技术路线图 | high-na euv dram 2028 三星 sk海力士 | micron high na euv 1δ 招聘`；结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时；旧记录兼容扫描近 71.4/72 小时、1227 条本臂决策(完整)，返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选， - kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 2,119 ms
{ - query_modeling_kb 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 39 ms
{"result": "modeling_kb 命中 10 条 (库快照 2026-07-27 · AI 算力链 19 页 · 本次命中证据最新 2026-05-22 · 其中 ⟨预测⟩ 5 条) —— 这是**定期重生成的快照**,不是活数据;比快照更晚的事实以你手上的信号/kb_search 为准。\n\n• [A] Rubin Ultra HBM4E · HBM 挤出商品 DRAM(全市场) · CY2027E = ~35% DRAM 晶圆 % ⟨预测⟩[1]\n 依据: (HBM 占三厂合计 DRAM 晶圆产能)2022 年低于 5%，2025 年底已升至约 20%，预计 202 - supply_chain_lookup 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 20 ms
{ - kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 2,260 ms
{ - search_case_library 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 153 ms
{"result": "search_case_library「000660.KS,005930.KS,ASML.US,MU.US」—— 与这些标的相关的自家决策案例(本页 12 条,该标的全历史相关记录共 5325 条；ENTER 只按该标的自己的腿统计):\n◆ 000660.KS：相关历史决策 2097 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 24 条(1.1%) · 已结算 19 笔 · 胜率 26% · 中位 -6.57% · 均值 -2.97%\n◆ 005930.KS：相关历史决策 1905 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 33 条(1.7%) · 已结算 33 笔 · 胜率 24% · - price_snapshot 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 28 ms
{ - fetch_decision_experience 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 16 ms
{ - query_modeling_kb 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 33 ms
{"result": "modeling_kb 命中 10 条 (库快照 2026-07-27 · AI 算力链 19 页 · 本次命中证据最新 2026-02-01 · 其中 ⟨预测⟩ 2 条) —— 这是**定期重生成的快照**,不是活数据;比快照更晚的事实以你手上的信号/kb_search 为准。\n\n• [A] EUV 光刻 (ASML) · ASML 全球份额(EUV 垄断) · 2025A = 100 %(EUV)[1]\n 依据: ASML 独占全球 EUV 100%、整体光刻设备 94%; 这是全链集中度最高、最不可替代的一环, 也是国产先进制程被卡(拿不到 EUV)的 - kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 2,202 ms
{
原文全文
展开原文 · 4,539 字
[News] The Race to 2028: Samsung, SK hynix Set High-NA EUV Timelines for DRAM as Micron Stays Tight-Lipped
As ASML unveils a series of collaborations with leading chipmakers, including TSMC, Intel, and Samsung, to drive the transition from today’s 6-inch photomasks to larger 12-inch masks for High-NA EUV systems, adoption roadmaps among major semiconductor players are also coming into focus.
Notably, 2028 could mark a critical milestone for memory makers, with both Samsung and SK hynix targeting the technology’s adoption in DRAM production by then, according to South Korean media outlet M Today.
High-NA EUV to Boost DRAM Efficiency, HBM Edge
As explained by M Today, High-NA EUV uses a higher numerical aperture (NA) than conventional EUV to improve resolution. While ASML’s existing NXE EUV systems have an NA of 0.33, its latest EXE systems raise it to 0.55.
As noted by Financial Times, a key advantage of the system is its ability to reduce the number of multipatterning steps. While conventional EUV requires four multipatterning steps to achieve 2nm-class features, High-NA EUV could theoretically cut the number of process steps in half, significantly lowering manufacturing costs, the report adds.
Notably, Samsung’s planned adoption could also have more implications. Citing industry sources, Financial News reports that applying High-NA EUV systems to advanced DRAM production could help Samsung further enhance HBM performance and strengthen its position against rivals. As noted by the report, Samsung set performance targets above international standards from the outset of HBM4 development and moved early to adopt its most advanced 1c-class (10nm-class sixth-generation) DRAM process.
According to Yonhap News, Samsung has been working closely with ASML on next-generation lithography, including bringing in South Korea’s first High-NA EUV system in March 2025.
On the other hand, Financial News points out that the move could become increasingly critical as China rapidly advances its memory capabilities, with the country reportedly beginning limited production of HBM3E. As China’s memory ambitions accelerate despite EUV restrictions, Samsung and SK hynix’s push to adopt High-NA EUV could be crucial to maintaining a significant technology lead in advanced DRAM and HBM, the report adds.
SK hynix Steps Up High-NA EUV Push
Meanwhile, News1 reports that, like Samsung, SK hynix is planning to introduce High-NA EUV equipment into its DRAM process and begin mass production applications by 2028. The company is also considering joining the Large Size Mask Consortium led by TSMC, the report adds.
The move builds on SK hynix’s continued expansion of EUV in advanced DRAM manufacturing since its first adoption in fourth-generation 10nm-class DRAM in 2021. The company is now rapidly ramping up production of its sixth-generation 10nm-class (1c) DRAM, which is set to serve as the core memory die for its next-generation HBM4E targeted for mass production in 2027, according to Chosun Biz.
The 1c ramp is already gaining momentum. Sources cited by Chosun Biz said 1c DRAM accounted for around 13% of SK hynix’s DRAM production in 2Q26, with the share projected to rise to 34% in 4Q26.
A Hiring Clue Points to Micron’s High-NA Plans
Meanwhile, Micron has been relatively quiet on its High-NA EUV progress, but introduced its first EUV-based 16Gb DDR5 devices in 2025, built on its new 1γ (1-gamma) process, according to Tom’s Hardware.
Notably, at its 2QFY26 earnings call, Micron said 1γ is expected to account for the majority of its DRAM bit mix by mid-2026. More importantly, the company has offered subtle clues about its next-generation EUV strategy. According to Micron, it plans to expand EUV adoption at its 1δ (1-delta) DRAM node using “the latest-generation EUV tools,” which it says will improve cleanroom space efficiency and optimize patterning as it scales to 1δ and beyond.
A recent job posting offers a further signal that preparations may already be underway. Micron is currently recruiting for a “High NA EUV Track – Equipment Engineer” role based at the NY Creates site in Albany, New York — home to the High NA EUV Center that Micron helped establish alongside IBM, Applied Materials, and Tokyo Electron through a $10 billion partnership with New York State.
Read more
- [News] ASML Expands High-NA EUV Push with TSMC, Samsung and Intel; 12-inch Photomask Pilot Line Set for 2031
- [News] ASML Advances High-NA EUV Toward HVM as 10 Systems Reportedly Go Live at 4 Customers
(Photo credit: ASML)
As ASML unveils a series of collaborations with leading chipmakers, including TSMC, Intel, and Samsung, to drive the transition from today’s 6-inch photomasks to larger 12-inch masks for High-NA EUV systems, adoption roadmaps among major semiconductor players are also coming into focus.
Notably, 2028 could mark a critical milestone for memory makers, with both Samsung and SK hynix targeting the technology’s adoption in DRAM production by then, according to South Korean media outlet M Today.
High-NA EUV to Boost DRAM Efficiency, HBM Edge
As explained by M Today, High-NA EUV uses a higher numerical aperture (NA) than conventional EUV to improve resolution. While ASML’s existing NXE EUV systems have an NA of 0.33, its latest EXE systems raise it to 0.55.
As noted by Financial Times, a key advantage of the system is its ability to reduce the number of multipatterning steps. While conventional EUV requires four multipatterning steps to achieve 2nm-class features, High-NA EUV could theoretically cut the number of process steps in half, significantly lowering manufacturing costs, the report adds.
Notably, Samsung’s planned adoption could also have more implications. Citing industry sources, Financial News reports that applying High-NA EUV systems to advanced DRAM production could help Samsung further enhance HBM performance and strengthen its position against rivals. As noted by the report, Samsung set performance targets above international standards from the outset of HBM4 development and moved early to adopt its most advanced 1c-class (10nm-class sixth-generation) DRAM process.
According to Yonhap News, Samsung has been working closely with ASML on next-generation lithography, including bringing in South Korea’s first High-NA EUV system in March 2025.
On the other hand, Financial News points out that the move could become increasingly critical as China rapidly advances its memory capabilities, with the country reportedly beginning limited production of HBM3E. As China’s memory ambitions accelerate despite EUV restrictions, Samsung and SK hynix’s push to adopt High-NA EUV could be crucial to maintaining a significant technology lead in advanced DRAM and HBM, the report adds.
SK hynix Steps Up High-NA EUV Push
Meanwhile, News1 reports that, like Samsung, SK hynix is planning to introduce High-NA EUV equipment into its DRAM process and begin mass production applications by 2028. The company is also considering joining the Large Size Mask Consortium led by TSMC, the report adds.
The move builds on SK hynix’s continued expansion of EUV in advanced DRAM manufacturing since its first adoption in fourth-generation 10nm-class DRAM in 2021. The company is now rapidly ramping up production of its sixth-generation 10nm-class (1c) DRAM, which is set to serve as the core memory die for its next-generation HBM4E targeted for mass production in 2027, according to Chosun Biz.
The 1c ramp is already gaining momentum. Sources cited by Chosun Biz said 1c DRAM accounted for around 13% of SK hynix’s DRAM production in 2Q26, with the share projected to rise to 34% in 4Q26.
A Hiring Clue Points to Micron’s High-NA Plans
Meanwhile, Micron has been relatively quiet on its High-NA EUV progress, but introduced its first EUV-based 16Gb DDR5 devices in 2025, built on its new 1γ (1-gamma) process, according to Tom’s Hardware.
Notably, at its 2QFY26 earnings call, Micron said 1γ is expected to account for the majority of its DRAM bit mix by mid-2026. More importantly, the company has offered subtle clues about its next-generation EUV strategy. According to Micron, it plans to expand EUV adoption at its 1δ (1-delta) DRAM node using “the latest-generation EUV tools,” which it says will improve cleanroom space efficiency and optimize patterning as it scales to 1δ and beyond.
A recent job posting offers a further signal that preparations may already be underway. Micron is currently recruiting for a “High NA EUV Track – Equipment Engineer” role based at the NY Creates site in Albany, New York — home to the High NA EUV Center that Micron helped establish alongside IBM, Applied Materials, and Tokyo Electron through a $10 billion partnership with New York State.
Read more
- [News] ASML Expands High-NA EUV Push with TSMC, Samsung and Intel; 12-inch Photomask Pilot Line Set for 2031
- [News] ASML Advances High-NA EUV Toward HVM as 10 Systems Reportedly Go Live at 4 Customers
(Photo credit: ASML)
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。