📊 TrendForceTrendForceCodex · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:美股▼ 亏 -3.81% · 已结算把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 14:32:12时区推断·⟳ 抓取 14:32:36·⚡ 决策 07-16 14:36:22 +3m46s·103.2 天前
台积电上调2026年资本开支至600-640亿美元并把全年美元营收增速指引提高至40%以上
台积电把2026年capex从520-560亿美元上调到600-640亿美元，增量约80亿美元，直接强化先进制程、2nm和HPC扩产设备需求。
📄 原文TrendForce↗ 原文
[News] TSMC Lifts 2026 Capex 15% to $60-64B, Hikes Sales Outlook to Over 40% Despite Q3 Margin Dip
After posting new high net profit in the second quarter, TSMC management projects 3Q26 revenue to land between $44.6 bi…
▼ 亏 -3.81%入场 07-16 盘前首笔 @1,797 → 离场 07-17 常规开盘 @1,734
决策后走势暂无图(这条腿还没有复盘打分的日线切片)
💡 交易逻辑TSMC capex大幅上修，EUV垄断设备商仍有开盘反应
怎么买 限价买入 不高于昨收 +3%、2 个交易日内有效
怎么卖 止盈 +3%(半仓)/+6%(清仓) · 止损 -4% · 时间止损 3日
不做 Applied Materials（AMAT.US）
同样受益WFE上修，但敞口较分散且前一日已高波动下跌，作为二号受益腿不如ASML直接，本次不另开仓。
不做 Lam Research（LRCX.US）
刻蚀/沉积受益方向成立，但事件主轴是台积电2nm和先进制程capex，最直接约束仍是EUV，LRCX不作为本次首选腿。
不做 KLA（KLAC.US）
过程控制设备受益但历史同类TSMC capex上修中KLAC后续表现分化，正期望不够清晰，回避。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
分时走势
做多 ASML.US ASML
建仓日早于近 30 天,只有日线图
成交明细 · 纸面
做多 ASML.US ASML
| 收益状态 | -3.81% 已平仓 |
|---|---|
| 进场成交 | 2026-07-16 · 盘前首笔 · 07-16 16:01 北京 · @1796.58 |
| 离场成交 | 2026-07-17 · 常规开盘 · @1733.78 |
| 毛收益 | -3.50% |
| 成本 | +0.32% |
| 净收益 | -3.81% |
| 计入收益 | -3.81% |
| 计入 | 同日重复,不计入曲线 |
| 建仓日 | 2026-07-16 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟 |
收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-27 18:58
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-16 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗
消息传播链
- TrendForce报道台积电二季度财报后管理层将2026年capex上调至600-640亿美元，并把全年美元营收增速指引提高至40%以上。市场反应:美股尚未进入常规盘；ASML.US工具报价显示相对前收+2.23%，需用限价控制追高。
- 2026-07-15市场反应stock_quote非一手ASML.US在前一交易日上涨2.23%，且内部KB显示同日已有多家海外研报上调或讨论ASML业绩，说明设备链已有部分预热。市场反应:ASML.US现价1815.27美元，前收1775.64美元，20日跌4.09%、5日涨2.64%。
关键理由
- 台积电把2026年capex从520-560亿美元上调到600-640亿美元，增量约80亿美元，直接强化先进制程、2nm和HPC扩产设备需求。
- ASML是EUV核心供应商，内部定量库显示其EUV份额为100%、2025年EUV系统收入116亿欧元、全公司收入327亿欧元，台积电先进制程capex上修对其订单能见度最直接。
- 同类TSMC capex上修后设备股先例的+1日中位数约1.75%、+3日中位数约1.79%，方向胜率约67%，但幅度不大，适合小仓限价参与。
主要风险
- 本次披露发生在台积电既定财报日，且ASML刚发布自身Q2业绩并已上涨2.23%，部分设备需求改善可能已被提前交易。
- 台积电同时提示2nm爬坡与海外厂会稀释毛利，若市场把焦点放在利润率压力而非capex上修，设备链反应可能高开低走。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-16 · 影响 weakens
内部KB显示ASML自身Q2业绩会和多家海外研报已在7月15-16日传播，TSMC capex上修对ASML不是完全低扩散新信息。
检索:ASML Q2 2026 guidance raised July 15 2026 2027 EUV orders capacity 2028 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-16 · 影响 weakens
TrendForce正文同时披露2nm爬坡稀释毛利3-4个百分点、海外厂早期稀释2-3个百分点，可能压制市场对台积电财报的净解读。
检索:TSMC Q3 gross margin 2nm ramp overseas fabs dilution July 2026 原文 ↗
历史先例(按相似度)
- ASML 2026-01-15 TSMC将2026年capex提至520-560亿美元且收入近30%增长，先进制程设备受益。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +2.0% · +3日 +2.1% · +5日 +4.3% - AMAT 2026-01-15 TSMC capex上修，WFE设备链受益。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +2.5% · +3日 +1.9% · +5日 +1.0% - LRCX 2026-01-15 TSMC capex上修，刻蚀和沉积设备链受益。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +2.5% · +3日 +5.0% · +5日 +0.2% - KLAC 2026-01-15 TSMC capex上修，过程控制和检测设备链受益。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +1.5% · +3日 -1.6% · +5日 -2.1% - ASML 2026-04-17 TSMC Q1后将capex指引上调至区间高位并上调收入展望。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +1.1% · +3日 -1.1% · +5日 -0.1% - AMAT 2026-04-17 TSMC Q1后capex至高位，WFE需求确认。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -1.3% · +3日 +1.6% · +5日 +5.1%
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(4 种)
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- query_modeling_kb · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- event_study · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,664 字
[News] TSMC Lifts 2026 Capex 15% to $60-64B, Hikes Sales Outlook to Over 40% Despite Q3 Margin Dip
After posting new high net profit in the second quarter, TSMC management projects 3Q26 revenue to land between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 37% and a sequential gain of around 12%.
In terms of profitability, based on an assumed exchange rate of 1 USD to 32 TWD, TSMC expects its gross margin to trend down to 65%–67%, while its operating margin is projected to land between 56% and 58%.
Notably, TSMC is aggressively lifting its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to US$60–64 billion—a significant bump from its prior US$52–56 billion forecast. This massive budget hike underscores the company’s laser focus on scaling capacity for 5G, AI, and High-Performance Computing (HPC), company management said.
On the flip side, the chipmaking colossus is supercharging its full-year guidance, raising the bar to over 40% revenue growth in USD terms, up significantly from the previous 30% projection.
According to CFO Wendell Huang, TSMC expect Q3 gross margin to trend down. This is primarily due to the steep ramp-up of the 2nm technology, which is anticipated to cause a 3% to 4% margin dilution.
Additionally, due to TSMC global footprint expansion, the gross margin dilution from ramping up overseas fabs is projected to be 2% to 3% in the early stages and widen to 3% to 4% in the latter stages, Huang said.
Read more
[News] TSMC 2Q26 Net Income Soars 77% YoY to NT$706.6B Record; Gross Margin Beats Forecast at 67.7%
(Photo credit: TSMC)
Please note that this article cites information from TSMC .
After posting new high net profit in the second quarter, TSMC management projects 3Q26 revenue to land between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 37% and a sequential gain of around 12%.
In terms of profitability, based on an assumed exchange rate of 1 USD to 32 TWD, TSMC expects its gross margin to trend down to 65%–67%, while its operating margin is projected to land between 56% and 58%.
Notably, TSMC is aggressively lifting its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to US$60–64 billion—a significant bump from its prior US$52–56 billion forecast. This massive budget hike underscores the company’s laser focus on scaling capacity for 5G, AI, and High-Performance Computing (HPC), company management said.
On the flip side, the chipmaking colossus is supercharging its full-year guidance, raising the bar to over 40% revenue growth in USD terms, up significantly from the previous 30% projection.
According to CFO Wendell Huang, TSMC expect Q3 gross margin to trend down. This is primarily due to the steep ramp-up of the 2nm technology, which is anticipated to cause a 3% to 4% margin dilution.
Additionally, due to TSMC global footprint expansion, the gross margin dilution from ramping up overseas fabs is projected to be 2% to 3% in the early stages and widen to 3% to 4% in the latter stages, Huang said.
Read more
[News] TSMC 2Q26 Net Income Soars 77% YoY to NT$706.6B Record; Gross Margin Beats Forecast at 67.7%
(Photo credit: TSMC)
Please note that this article cites information from TSMC .
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