📊 TrendForceTrendForceDoubao · 实盘不做把握 6/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·🕒 发布 11:47:16·⟳ 抓取 11:47:21 +5s·⚡ 决策 10-19 11:49:32 +2m11s·8.4 天前
TrendForce汇总称联发科参与的Google TPU v9或延至1Q28出货,字节跳动接近采购联发科数据中心ASIC,台湾ASIC设计厂受关注
TrendForce该文是对10月13-15日已公开报道的二次汇编:TPU v9延后及EMIB-T封装见10月13-14日广发证券/GuruFocus/VLSI等,字节跳动洽购联发科ASIC为彭博10月14日独家并已被多语种媒体扩散,GUC/Alchip九月营收为10月上旬法说月度数据。文章对所有主体均无可改变价格的新增事实(无新金额、无官方确认、无时间表再下修),且多空相抵(v9延后偏空、字节订单偏多),不具交易edge。
📄 原文TrendForce↗ 原文
[News] MediaTek’s Google TPU v9 Shipments May Slip to 1Q28; ASIC Race Heats Up as Taiwan Firms Eye New Opportunities Ta…
不做 联发科(2454.TW)
TrendForce文为10月13-15日旧闻汇编,TPU v9延后(空)与字节ASIC订单(多)均已广泛传播且相互抵消,无新增金额、签约确认或指引修正,缺乏预期差与可交易edge;台股周一午间休市,即便开盘也无新催化可博。
不做 创意电子GUC(3443.TW)
九月营收为10月上旬已公布的法说月度数据,本文仅转述,无新增事实。
不做 世芯-KY Alchip(3661.TW)
九月营收同比+496%已公开并消化,综述稿不构成新催化。
不做 智原科技Faraday(3035.TW)
三星2nm PDK与Intel 18A-P设计环境为既有业务布局,无新订单或金额,方向与量级均不足。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
这是一篇行业综述而非新催化:TPU v9延后、字节采购联发科ASIC、台厂九月营收三大要素均在4-6天前首发并扩散,本文仅汇总且多空交织,相关标的大概率已定价,不做。
消息传播链
- TrendForce综述稿,转述工商时报、彭博与公司月度营收,未提供任何首发新事实
关键理由
- TPU v9延后对联发科偏空、字节新客户偏多,单一文章内净方向不明,且均为旧闻
- 无任何新披露的金额、签约确认或指引修正,缺乏相对市场共识的预期差
主要风险
- 若字节订单在台北周一开盘前正式官宣或TPU时间表再下修,可能产生独立新催化,需按新事件重判
- 行情工具本次不可用,未能核验相关台股最新价与近期异动,不排除板块已因情绪升温
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-15 · 影响 weakens
字节订单仍处nearing agreement、双方不评论,无官方签署或金额;TPU v9时间表已下修,多头缺新确认
检索:MediaTek TPU v9 delay ByteDance ASIC deal signed confirmation 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-14 · 影响 weakens
存在字节第二大客户的实质性利好,削弱仅凭v9延后做空的逻辑
检索:MediaTek ByteDance data center ASIC second customer Bloomberg 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:未因先例改变结论;AVOID由stale与多空相抵直接决定
方向:无可用对齐先例;本文本身为旧闻汇编,无需以先例校准幅度
涨幅量级:不适用:决策依据为缺乏新增事实而非幅度判断
形态:不适用
工具执行结果 · 成功 3 · 降级 0 · 失败 1 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 14 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`alchip guc faraday september revenue ai asic 3nm | bytedance mediatek data center asic chip purchase agreement | mediatek google tpu v9 humufish tape-out delay january 2027 shipmen`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agen - web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,524 ms
豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Bloomberg ByteDance MediaTek data center chip ASIC deal;API SearchType:web) - web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,573 ms
豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Google TPU v9 MediaTek Humufish tape-out delay Commercial Times;API SearchType:web) - stock_quote 失败 stock_tools HTTP · 10 ms
行情服务暂不可用;本次无法核验该标的价格和可执行条件。请基于其余证据继续判断并明确标注行情降级;不得仅因工具故障自动给出 AVOID 或 ENTER,也不得编造价位。
原文全文
展开原文 · 3,184 字
[News] MediaTek’s Google TPU v9 Shipments May Slip to 1Q28; ASIC Race Heats Up as Taiwan Firms Eye New Opportunities
Taiwan’s ASIC design industry is seeing growing opportunities, with MediaTek emerging as a key player in the expanding market. However, according to Commercial Times, citing institutional investors, Google’s TPU v9 project, involving MediaTek, could see its tape-out delayed until January 2027 following design revisions, with shipments potentially pushed back to the first quarter of 2028.
The report notes that revisions to Google’s TPU v9 Core A design, codenamed Humufish, have delayed development by approximately three weeks, affecting the Core B and I/O designs handled by MediaTek. Although the November 2026 sampling target remains unchanged, the initial tape-out is now expected in January 2027, followed by the production-version tape-out in the second quarter.
Beyond the design revisions, Google’s TPU v9 project is also drawing attention for its advanced packaging strategy. According to TrendForce, the chip is expected to adopt Intel’s EMIB-T, with substrate yields remaining a key challenge to production scalability and cost competitiveness.
MediaTek is also seeking to expand its ASIC customer base beyond Google. According to Bloomberg, citing sources, ByteDance is nearing an agreement to purchase MediaTek’s data center chips, potentially making the TikTok parent the Taiwanese chipmaker’s second major ASIC customer after Alphabet’s Google. Bloomberg notes that securing a major ByteDance contract would support MediaTek’s efforts to diversify beyond smartphones and strengthen its position against Qualcomm and Broadcom in the data center market.
Taiwan’s ASIC Firms See Revenue Growth and New Foundry Opportunities
Beyond MediaTek, other Taiwanese ASIC design companies are seeing advanced chip projects translate into stronger revenue. Global Unichip Corporation (GUC), supported by cloud customers’ CPU and ASIC programs, reported record September revenue of NT$7.145 billion, up 97.8% year over year. Alchip Technologies posted September revenue of NT$9.979 billion, surging 496% year over year as shipments of 3nm AI accelerators increased.
Faraday Technology is also expanding its capabilities across multiple foundry platforms, positioning itself for opportunities with Samsung and Intel. According to Commercial Times, Samsung’s 4nm capacity is reportedly fully utilized, prompting some AI ASIC customers to evaluate its 2nm node. Faraday has obtained Samsung’s 2nm process design kit (PDK) to pursue related design opportunities. The company has also completed its design environment setup for Intel’s 18A-P and begun offering design services, with plans to pursue more projects in 2027.
According to Commercial Times, citing institutional investors, global AI ASIC accelerator shipments are projected to reach 14.1 million units in 2027, up approximately 69% year over year, highlighting growing opportunities for ASIC design companies.
Read more
- CSP ASICs Rise as Google TPU Eyes EMIB Packaging
- [News] MediaTek’s Dimensity 9600 Pro, Built on TSMC 2nm, Reportedly Hits Record $220, Closing In on Qualcomm
(Photo credit: MediaTek)
Taiwan’s ASIC design industry is seeing growing opportunities, with MediaTek emerging as a key player in the expanding market. However, according to Commercial Times, citing institutional investors, Google’s TPU v9 project, involving MediaTek, could see its tape-out delayed until January 2027 following design revisions, with shipments potentially pushed back to the first quarter of 2028.
The report notes that revisions to Google’s TPU v9 Core A design, codenamed Humufish, have delayed development by approximately three weeks, affecting the Core B and I/O designs handled by MediaTek. Although the November 2026 sampling target remains unchanged, the initial tape-out is now expected in January 2027, followed by the production-version tape-out in the second quarter.
Beyond the design revisions, Google’s TPU v9 project is also drawing attention for its advanced packaging strategy. According to TrendForce, the chip is expected to adopt Intel’s EMIB-T, with substrate yields remaining a key challenge to production scalability and cost competitiveness.
MediaTek is also seeking to expand its ASIC customer base beyond Google. According to Bloomberg, citing sources, ByteDance is nearing an agreement to purchase MediaTek’s data center chips, potentially making the TikTok parent the Taiwanese chipmaker’s second major ASIC customer after Alphabet’s Google. Bloomberg notes that securing a major ByteDance contract would support MediaTek’s efforts to diversify beyond smartphones and strengthen its position against Qualcomm and Broadcom in the data center market.
Taiwan’s ASIC Firms See Revenue Growth and New Foundry Opportunities
Beyond MediaTek, other Taiwanese ASIC design companies are seeing advanced chip projects translate into stronger revenue. Global Unichip Corporation (GUC), supported by cloud customers’ CPU and ASIC programs, reported record September revenue of NT$7.145 billion, up 97.8% year over year. Alchip Technologies posted September revenue of NT$9.979 billion, surging 496% year over year as shipments of 3nm AI accelerators increased.
Faraday Technology is also expanding its capabilities across multiple foundry platforms, positioning itself for opportunities with Samsung and Intel. According to Commercial Times, Samsung’s 4nm capacity is reportedly fully utilized, prompting some AI ASIC customers to evaluate its 2nm node. Faraday has obtained Samsung’s 2nm process design kit (PDK) to pursue related design opportunities. The company has also completed its design environment setup for Intel’s 18A-P and begun offering design services, with plans to pursue more projects in 2027.
According to Commercial Times, citing institutional investors, global AI ASIC accelerator shipments are projected to reach 14.1 million units in 2027, up approximately 69% year over year, highlighting growing opportunities for ASIC design companies.
Read more
- CSP ASICs Rise as Google TPU Eyes EMIB Packaging
- [News] MediaTek’s Dimensity 9600 Pro, Built on TSMC 2nm, Reportedly Hits Record $220, Closing In on Qualcomm
(Photo credit: MediaTek)
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