📊 TrendForceTrendForceQwen · 实盘不做把握 3/10不做原因:已被定价
北京时间·🕒 发布 14:46:51·⟳ 抓取 14:46:57 +6s·⚡ 决策 08-26 14:52:51 +5m54s·62.2 天前
TrendForce援引朝鲜日报/韩国贸易统计：韩国DRAM出口价格三年涨12.5倍，8月前20日同比+401%
本次事件是TrendForce对已知DRAM涨价趋势的回顾性数据汇总(朝鲜日报/朝鲜日报引用TRASS 8月1-20日出口统计)，核心前瞻数据(2026年服务器DRAM合约价+270%、3Q +13-18%)均为TrendForce此前已发布的既有预测，不构成新增催化。更关键的是，前瞻数据显示涨价速率正在递减(2Q +53-58% → 3Q +13-18% → 4Q +3-8%)，边际动能放缓。A股存储板块7月中旬已经历剧烈波动后进入整理，市场对该主题高度敏感且已充分交易。无实时行情可用，无法验证当前价位和执行条件。
📄 原文TrendForce↗ 原文
[News] South Korea’s DRAM Prices Reportedly Soar 12.5-Fold in 3 Years, Outpacing Gold
The memory price rally is showing no signs of slowing, with gains far outpacing expectations. According to Chosun Biz ,…
不做 江波龙（301308.SZ）
本次事件为回顾性数据确认+既有预测重申，非新增催化；涨价速率边际递减(2Q +53-58% → 3Q +13-18%)；该标的历史胜率仅21%；无实时行情可用无法验证执行条件
不做 北京君正（300223.SZ）
DRAM涨价为已知趋势的回顾性确认，无新增预期差；公司DRAM业务占比有限；近期高波动整理中无明确方向信号
不做 兆易创新（603986.SH）
主营NOR Flash+MCU，DRAM涨价对其直接敞口有限；事件为已知趋势确认非新增催化；无实时行情可用
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
TrendForce转发朝鲜日报报道，引用韩国贸易统计促进会(TRASS)数据显示8月1-20日DRAM出口均价$92,183/kg(+401% YoY)，并重申2026年服务器DRAM合约价累计+270%的预测。但该预测为TrendForce此前已公开数据，非新增信息；且涨价速率从2Q的+53-58%递减至3Q的+13-18%和4Q的+3-8%，边际动能明确放缓。DRAM超级周期是当前半导体领域最广泛讨论的主题之一，三星/海力士/美光及A股存储板块已持续交易该逻辑数月。本次报道仅为回顾性数据确认+既有预测重申，不构成可交易的新增预期差。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-08-26 · 扩散 high · price-in 风险 high ↗
消息传播链
- TrendForce新闻频道发布，引用朝鲜日报(Chosun Biz)报道和TRASS数据；文中同时引用TrendForce自身此前发布的合约价预测，非新增预测
主要风险
- DRAM涨价速率边际递减(2Q +53-58% → 3Q +13-18% → 4Q +3-8%)，若后续实际涨幅低于预期，存储板块面临预期下修风险
- A股存储板块近期波动极大(7月中旬单周跌幅超10%后快速反弹)，追高风险显著
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 TrendForce原文自身数据 · 日期 2026-08-26 · 影响 weakens
文章自身数据显示涨价动能递减：2Q26 +53-58% → 3Q26 +13-18% → 4Q26 +3-8%，边际增速快速收敛，暗示周期可能接近顶部区间
检索:DRAM涨价速率递减、存储周期见顶风险 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 price_snapshot + search_case_library · 日期 2026-08-12 · 影响 weakens
A股存储股7月中旬经历剧烈下跌(江波龙单周-14.6%、兆易创新连续两日-10%)后进入高波动反弹；案例库显示江波龙历史胜率仅21%、中位收益-5.15%，表明该标的交易难度极大
检索:A股存储板块近期走势与案例库
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例不足不改变结论：本次事件本身不构成新增催化，无论历史反应如何都不应基于回顾性数据确认开仓
方向:无法建立有效先例：行业价格数据回顾性报道不构成离散事件，历史上此类'确认已知趋势'的报道对股价影响极小且方向不定
涨幅量级:不适用
形态:不适用
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(8 种)
- fetch_decision_experience · 结果未知
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- web_search · 结果未知
- get_stock_profile · 结果未知
- price_snapshot · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- search_case_library · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,872 字
[News] South Korea’s DRAM Prices Reportedly Soar 12.5-Fold in 3 Years, Outpacing Gold
The memory price rally is showing no signs of slowing, with gains far outpacing expectations. According to Chosun Biz , South Korea’s DRAM export prices have surged 12.5-fold from their low three years and seven months ago, with the price per kilogram now 41.7 times that of silver.
The report further puts DRAM’s soaring value in perspective by comparing it with precious metals: a kilogram of Korean-made DRAM can now buy roughly 620 grams of gold. Gold has also rallied sharply, driven by lower U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, but its price has risen just 2.4-fold over the same period—far less than DRAM, the report adds.
The surge is reflected in the latest trade data. According to the Korea Trade Statistics Promotion Institute (TRASS), cited by Chosun Biz, South Korea’s DRAM export price, excluding modules, reached $92,183 per kilogram (KRW 127.4 million) during Aug. 1–20, up 401.0% year on year. Export value also jumped 504.8% to $9.807 billion (KRW 13.56 trillion).
Some of the increase can be attributed to higher-density products, but that alone does not explain the scale of the rally. The capacity of a mainstream DRAM product has doubled from 8Gb (1GB) to 16Gb (2GB) as process technology and chip density have advanced, the report notes.
Among major DRAM segments, server DRAM—a key memory category for cloud service providers (CSPs)—has seen particularly sharp contract price increases. According to TrendForce , contract prices jumped 64% cumulatively in 2H25 and are projected to surge another 270% in 2026. After climbing 53–58% QoQ in 2Q26, server DDR5 prices are expected to rise another 13–18% in 3Q and 3–8% in 4Q, keeping the upward momentum firmly in place, TrendForce notes.
DRAM Price Shock Spreads Across Global Markets
The price shock is spreading well beyond South Korea. Citing German hardware specialist 3D Center , Chosun Ilbo reports that Germany’s DDR5 retail price index climbed to 486% in August, up 41 percentage points from 445% in July. With July 2025 set as the 100% baseline, the reading means DDR5 retail prices have risen 4.86-fold in just over a year, the report explains.
Other major markets are seeing similar pressure. In the U.S., 32GB DDR5 kits that sold for $100–$200 last year now reportedly start at around $350, when available. Japan has also seen the floor price for a 128GB DDR5 kit comprising two 64GB modules climb to roughly ¥300,000, Chosun Ilbo reports.
Read more
[News] Germany DDR5 Prices Near 5X YoY in August; China Reportedly Sees 14% WoW Jump as Global Rally Continues
[Insights] Memory Spot Price Update: DDR5 Spot Momentum Continues as DDR4 Tightness Spills Over to DDR3
(Photo credit: Samsung)
Please note that this article cites information from Chosun Biz , 3D Center , and Chosun Ilbo .
The memory price rally is showing no signs of slowing, with gains far outpacing expectations. According to Chosun Biz , South Korea’s DRAM export prices have surged 12.5-fold from their low three years and seven months ago, with the price per kilogram now 41.7 times that of silver.
The report further puts DRAM’s soaring value in perspective by comparing it with precious metals: a kilogram of Korean-made DRAM can now buy roughly 620 grams of gold. Gold has also rallied sharply, driven by lower U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, but its price has risen just 2.4-fold over the same period—far less than DRAM, the report adds.
The surge is reflected in the latest trade data. According to the Korea Trade Statistics Promotion Institute (TRASS), cited by Chosun Biz, South Korea’s DRAM export price, excluding modules, reached $92,183 per kilogram (KRW 127.4 million) during Aug. 1–20, up 401.0% year on year. Export value also jumped 504.8% to $9.807 billion (KRW 13.56 trillion).
Some of the increase can be attributed to higher-density products, but that alone does not explain the scale of the rally. The capacity of a mainstream DRAM product has doubled from 8Gb (1GB) to 16Gb (2GB) as process technology and chip density have advanced, the report notes.
Among major DRAM segments, server DRAM—a key memory category for cloud service providers (CSPs)—has seen particularly sharp contract price increases. According to TrendForce , contract prices jumped 64% cumulatively in 2H25 and are projected to surge another 270% in 2026. After climbing 53–58% QoQ in 2Q26, server DDR5 prices are expected to rise another 13–18% in 3Q and 3–8% in 4Q, keeping the upward momentum firmly in place, TrendForce notes.
DRAM Price Shock Spreads Across Global Markets
The price shock is spreading well beyond South Korea. Citing German hardware specialist 3D Center , Chosun Ilbo reports that Germany’s DDR5 retail price index climbed to 486% in August, up 41 percentage points from 445% in July. With July 2025 set as the 100% baseline, the reading means DDR5 retail prices have risen 4.86-fold in just over a year, the report explains.
Other major markets are seeing similar pressure. In the U.S., 32GB DDR5 kits that sold for $100–$200 last year now reportedly start at around $350, when available. Japan has also seen the floor price for a 128GB DDR5 kit comprising two 64GB modules climb to roughly ¥300,000, Chosun Ilbo reports.
Read more
[News] Germany DDR5 Prices Near 5X YoY in August; China Reportedly Sees 14% WoW Jump as Global Rally Continues
[Insights] Memory Spot Price Update: DDR5 Spot Momentum Continues as DDR4 Tightness Spills Over to DDR3
(Photo credit: Samsung)
Please note that this article cites information from Chosun Biz , 3D Center , and Chosun Ilbo .
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